fox5

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • gabe
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 09-12-11
    • 7405

    #1
    fox5
    Received a number of requests to post my plays, so for at least this card, I'll oblige.




    Let's hit some plays!

    I'll get started with my three dog plays on the card. First, I like John Albert +220 over Scott Jorgensen. I think the value is with Albert, all day. Jorgensen doesn't seem to be improving, while Albert certainly is. Jorgensen may be underestimating him, too. I am expecting an early finish from John Albert. It's important that he be dominant early on. If this goes to a decision, unless Albert's cardio has drastically improved, the W will likely go to Jorgensen. However, I could see Albert beating Jorgensen up in the first round, having enough heart to take the second round, then losing a wrestling match in the third. I cap Albert at +125, so this price is a steal.

    Next, I'm taking Nam "Number 1" Phan +255 over Denis Siver. I expect this to be a pretty close contested stand-up battle that goes to the scorecards, possibly for a split decision; I'm taking Nam Phan here, all day. I cap him at +140, so this line is another big steal. Wouldn't be a bad idea to parlay Albert and Phan: $100 to win $1,036.

    My third dog play will be on BJ Penn +245 over Rory MacDonald. I am not overly confident in this play; I think Penn should be +400. Though, much like Tito vs Bader, I see several outs for BJ. I know he's strong enough to put Rory away if he starts connecting. I also know it's over if he sneakily manages to latch on to Rory's back during some exchange. It's also over if he gets full control of an arm. It's gonna be a small play for me.

    I am gonna wait for all three of these lines to improve before placing my wagers, I think they will all grow to become bigger dogs.

    Now, let's move onto my top plays, starting with my number one play on the card: BIG MIKE "THE HULK" EASTON over Hafael Ass-sounds-OW. I think Easton is gonna prove to be too powerful for Assuncao, so he isn't gonna wanna keep standing with him, and will initiate the grappling. If Easton doesn't put him away on the feet, he will do enough damage there and also on the ground, if it goes there, to earn the decision. I personally don't think Assuncao will survive all three rounds, but we'll see. I'm expecting and hoping for a first round finish for Big Mike.

    My second favorite play is TIM MEANS BUSINESS -310 over Abel Trujillo. I don't get this fight. Is Trujillo really UFC caliber? I'm not sure he is. Seems like an easy gift fight for Tim Means. He's got the size, reach, and stand-up advantage. Not to mention, he's been red hot, coming off a knockout win over a dude with a good chin. I thought he would get a bigger fight after that win, but he's getting some nobody with a poor resume? He's got no wins over anyone half decent. I hope Means makes quick work here, but not expecting it.

    My third is on ALEXANDER GUSTAFSSON -205 over Shogun HUAAAAAAAAA. It's Gusty's time, he's on the way up, and Shogun is on his way down. He didn't hand select this opponent like he did Brandon Vera. He barely won the Vera fight, then turned down a fight with Jon Jones, so he was given an opponent who is a legitimate threat. Gusty is going to get past Shogun. He says he is going to be looking to finish. I could see that, but I expect this to be Gustafsson by Decision.

    Rest, soon...
  • ShotgunRua
    SBR Sharp
    • 09-12-12
    • 376

    #2
    Good luck Gabe! I don't see Phan enjoying the stand up with Siver at all and expect him to try and get the fight to the ground, and I've seen nothing from Gustafsson to suggest he's a threat to the top of the division. Aside from that though I find myself agreeing with your analysis.
    Comment
    • gabe
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 09-12-11
      • 7405

      #3
      Originally posted by ShotgunRua
      Good luck Gabe! I don't see Phan enjoying the stand up with Siver at all and expect him to try and get the fight to the ground, and I've seen nothing from Gustafsson to suggest he's a threat to the top of the division. Aside from that though I find myself agreeing with your analysis.
      He's not a threat to Jon Jones, but he's a threat to Shogun, if you consider Shogon 'top of the division'
      Comment
      • Vaughany
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 03-07-10
        • 45563

        #4
        Last edited by Vaughany; 12-06-12, 04:25 PM.
        Comment
        • KushMoney
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 07-11-11
          • 658

          #5
          Do you already have your wagers placed?


          I'm sure most would like to also know Unit Size.


          You make any parlays?


          Good luck bro!
          Comment
          • gabe
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 09-12-11
            • 7405

            #6
            Originally posted by KushMoney
            Do you already have your wagers placed?


            I'm sure most would like to also know Unit Size.


            You make any parlays?


            Good luck bro!
            7 inches, on a good day...

            Only play locked in so far is on Gustafsson
            Comment
            • gabe
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 09-12-11
              • 7405

              #7
              I recommend an Easton-Means-Gustafsson parlay
              Comment
              • ShotgunRua
                SBR Sharp
                • 09-12-12
                • 376

                #8
                Originally posted by gabe
                He's not a threat to Jon Jones, but he's a threat to Shogun, if you consider Shogon 'top of the division'
                Well I guess this fight will answer a lot of questions regarding both guys.
                Comment
                • bjpenn85
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 02-17-11
                  • 5059

                  #9
                  how sure are you on beaston? i havent broken down the fight yet, but, he has some good wins?
                  Comment
                  • gabe
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 09-12-11
                    • 7405

                    #10
                    Originally posted by bjpenn85
                    how sure are you on beaston? i havent broken down the fight yet, but, he has some good wins?
                    I don't see him getting the better of the fight, regardless of where it goes. I see it playing out on the feet, though, don't think Assuncao can take him down. Expecting/hoping for an early KO.
                    Comment
                    • Vaughany
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 03-07-10
                      • 45563

                      #11
                      Yeah be surprised if Assuncao has any success with takedowns
                      Comment
                      • bjpenn85
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 02-17-11
                        • 5059

                        #12
                        assuncao won over eduardo, whihch is a pretty good striker, and then he Koed tamura...so how much better can easton really be? Why this steap price? i understand that he won over menjivar, but wasnt that fight pretty close?
                        Comment
                        • gabe
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 09-12-11
                          • 7405

                          #13
                          Originally posted by bjpenn85
                          assuncao won over eduardo, whihch is a pretty good striker, and then he Koed tamura...so how much better can easton really be? Why this steap price? i understand that he won over menjivar, but wasnt that fight pretty close?
                          easton could easily decision eduardo and KO tamura. assuncao doesn't fair well against heavy hitters. if he doesn't have the power advantage and can't get the fight to the ground, he's in trouble. in this case, even if he does get it to the ground, i think he's still in trouble. only ways i see assuncao winning are by a lucky armbar or judges rob easton
                          Comment
                          • v1y
                            SBR MVP
                            • 05-02-11
                            • 1138

                            #14
                            im on assuncao. easton's performances against bloodworth and papazian were mediocre, and the menjivar fight was hardly a blow out.
                            Comment
                            • kripsak
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 09-16-12
                              • 106

                              #15
                              I'm hoping "1 Gram" on Phan will deliver some nice body shots to Siver's liver.
                              Comment
                              • MD
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 01-31-12
                                • 9728

                                #16
                                Nice plays buddy; appreciate the analysis. Happy to see it.
                                Comment
                                • gabe
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 09-12-11
                                  • 7405

                                  #17
                                  I like RAMSEY NIJEM -190 to defeat Joe Proctor in his hometown. Only way I see Nijem losing is if Proctor catches him and knocks him out. Doubt it will happen, though. This is a very important fight for Nijem, he's gonna go all out for the W.

                                  I'm also on MIKE SWICK -160 over Matt Brown. I expect Swick to have improved significantly since his bout vs DaMarques Johnson. Not sure it would matter, though, as I see him ending this by guillotine choke pretty early on. I may be wrong about the early on part, but still...

                                  For props, I like Siver vs Phan o2.5, Swick vs Brown u2.5, and Henderson vs Diaz o4.5.
                                  Comment
                                  • gabe
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 09-12-11
                                    • 7405

                                    #18
                                    For Bellator 83, I like Martinez vs Shamhalaev o2.5

                                    Also, small on Rad Martinez -165

                                    Can't go big against Shabby, he's made me too much $$$

                                    Tailing sideloaded w/ Jessica Eye
                                    Comment
                                    • sideloaded
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 08-21-10
                                      • 7561

                                      #19
                                      Why isn't nunya in here harassing you?
                                      Comment
                                      • gabe
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 09-12-11
                                        • 7405

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by sideloaded
                                        Why isn't nunya in here harassing you?
                                        He knows I'm a G.
                                        Comment
                                        • sideloaded
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 08-21-10
                                          • 7561

                                          #21
                                          funny thing is I've never even opened his thread, Sad he's so f-cking broke he has to tail and comment in my thread just to pay for his wife to get to work the next day. Someone in the family has to bring home the bacon.
                                          Comment
                                          • BIGDAY
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 02-17-10
                                            • 48245

                                            #22
                                            Hope you cash Big!
                                            Comment
                                            • NunyaBidness
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 07-26-09
                                              • 9345

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by sideloaded
                                              funny thing is I've never even opened his thread, Sad he's so f-cking broke he has to tail and comment in my thread just to pay for his wife to get to work the next day. Someone in the family has to bring home the bacon.
                                              You're pretty obsessed with me these days, little fella.

                                              My wife works 2 days a week to get us health insurance. She's allowed to blow her money on whatever she wants.

                                              Real men are providers.
                                              Comment
                                              • MMAbetMASTA
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 05-24-11
                                                • 1931

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by gabe
                                                easton could easily decision eduardo and KO tamura. assuncao doesn't fair well against heavy hitters. if he doesn't have the power advantage and can't get the fight to the ground, he's in trouble. in this case, even if he does get it to the ground, i think he's still in trouble. only ways i see assuncao winning are by a lucky armbar or judges rob easton
                                                assuncao's gone toe to toe with some real heavy hitters, koch is the only guy to really put him away bad with strikes... He kept it competitive on the feet with jaboiun and took some good hits from faber. Outside of papazian I haven't seen easton impressive in any other fights... both he an menji basically sparred for 3 rounds, dodson fight was a sleeper and could arguably be scored for dodson, and beebe got jacked in one of the worst robberies ever. These are the four easton fights i've seen and only one was impressive. But it was a damn impressive fight against papazian, and if he's not passive like I've seen in most matches, I do think he is the rightful fav in this fight (put him around -140ish tho) and has the better overall striking, especially power. but assuncao's striking shouldn't be underestimated. I just think the line should be much closer to evens, i don't see value in easton at juicy odds. Gl tho man.
                                                Comment
                                                • MMAbetMASTA
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 05-24-11
                                                  • 1931

                                                  #25
                                                  Also really like siver, tempted to pay the juice at -300 because I set his line around -360-75...

                                                  Phan can't get this too the ground (if he could I wouldn't necessarily give him a much bigger edge over siver there either) and I think siver's overall striking - power, technique, versatility - is much better than phans. I think phan only wins this by flash ko / stoppage, which he hasn't done in a long while. I think siver can easily keep this upright as long as he wants, where he should batter phan for 3 rounds, perhaps get another spinning back kick tko Phan's boxing is legit, but I can't forget how often he gets tagged, pretty bad defense, lacking stopping power, and just not as much versatility against a dude who's base was created on the kickboxing circut. Can't knock you tho for taking him at nice dog odd, gl.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Broxbomber
                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                    • 10-09-12
                                                    • 132

                                                    #26
                                                    3 Fight Parlay

                                                    Rory Mac win in round 3 (+800)
                                                    Alex Gustaffson win in round 3 (+1000)
                                                    Nate Diaz win in round 5 (+2000)
                                                    Every $1 pays $2,079

                                                    Those are pretty crazy odds together.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Broxbomber
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 10-09-12
                                                      • 132

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by Broxbomber
                                                      Rory Mac win in round 3 (+800)
                                                      Alex Gustaffson win in round 3 (+1000)
                                                      Nate Diaz win in round 5 (+2000)
                                                      Every $1 pays $2,079

                                                      Those are pretty crazy odds together.

                                                      Bendo win in round 5 (+2800) which increases the odds in the parly when replacing Diaz in round 5
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Jesus Christ
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 05-25-11
                                                        • 935

                                                        #28
                                                        Easton's strange style with tons of passive fighting followed by spurts of pure aggression is gonna eventually cost him a fight on the judges cards...I just doubt it's against Assuncao
                                                        Comment
                                                        • gabe
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 09-12-11
                                                          • 7405

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by Jesus Christ
                                                          Easton's strange style with tons of passive fighting followed by spurts of pure aggression is gonna eventually cost him a fight on the judges cards...I just doubt it's against Assuncao
                                                          With you there. I'd actually like to see him fight Faber.

                                                          And where the hell is Brian Bowles? Is he injured or something?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • gabe
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 09-12-11
                                                            • 7405

                                                            #30
                                                            Predictions:

                                                            FOTN: Bendo vs Diaz
                                                            SOTN: Mike Swick or BJ Penn
                                                            KOTN: Mike Easton or BJ Penn
                                                            Comment
                                                            • gabe
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 09-12-11
                                                              • 7405

                                                              #31
                                                              Easton locked in at -240 (maxed at a couple books. -270 at other books, so didn't play him there.)
                                                              Phan locked in at +245 and +230
                                                              Nijem locked in at -185 (maxed at one book. -200 elsewhere)
                                                              Albert locked in at +205
                                                              Gustafsson locked in at -205, -210, -230, and -240

                                                              Gonna wait til tomorrow 'fore I make plays on the rest, or add to these...

                                                              Gonna be big on Phan/Siver o2.5
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Vaughany
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 03-07-10
                                                                • 45563

                                                                #32
                                                                Ouch, some shitty odds there
                                                                Comment
                                                                • gabe
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 09-12-11
                                                                  • 7405

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Little background info on my fighter picks:

                                                                  I am--

                                                                  2-2 picking Shogun fights
                                                                  2-1 picking Gustafsson fights
                                                                  4-3 total

                                                                  1-0 picking BJ fights
                                                                  0-3 picking Rory fights
                                                                  1-3 total

                                                                  1-0 picking Swick fights
                                                                  2-2 picking Brown fights
                                                                  3-2 total

                                                                  1-2 picking Easton fights
                                                                  0-2 picking Assuncao fights
                                                                  1-4 total

                                                                  1-2 picking Nijem fights
                                                                  0-1 picking Proctor fights
                                                                  1-3 total

                                                                  2-0 picking LeVesseur fights
                                                                  0-0 picking Trujillo fights
                                                                  2-0 total

                                                                  3-1 picking Phan fights
                                                                  2-2 picking Siver fights
                                                                  5-3 total

                                                                  2-1 picking Albert fights
                                                                  1-2 picking Jorgensen fights
                                                                  3-3 total

                                                                  20-21 total

                                                                  wow lol i have a crappy record, if you only focus on fights i've picked for these fighters.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Sacrelicious
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 11-29-12
                                                                    • 5984

                                                                    #34
                                                                    It happens.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • sideloaded
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 08-21-10
                                                                      • 7561

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                                                                      You're pretty obsessed with me these days, little fella.

                                                                      My wife works 2 days a week to get us health insurance. She's allowed to blow her money on whatever she wants.

                                                                      Real men are providers.
                                                                      Your gimmick is up. No one actually believes you make any money betting mma. Only a complete tool would brag about using kelly with 10 dollar limits. Do you realize how retarded you sound?
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      SBR Contests
                                                                      Collapse
                                                                      Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                      Collapse
                                                                      Working...