Received a number of requests to post my plays, so for at least this card, I'll oblige.
Let's hit some plays!
I'll get started with my three dog plays on the card. First, I like John Albert +220 over Scott Jorgensen. I think the value is with Albert, all day. Jorgensen doesn't seem to be improving, while Albert certainly is. Jorgensen may be underestimating him, too. I am expecting an early finish from John Albert. It's important that he be dominant early on. If this goes to a decision, unless Albert's cardio has drastically improved, the W will likely go to Jorgensen. However, I could see Albert beating Jorgensen up in the first round, having enough heart to take the second round, then losing a wrestling match in the third. I cap Albert at +125, so this price is a steal.
Next, I'm taking Nam "Number 1" Phan +255 over Denis Siver. I expect this to be a pretty close contested stand-up battle that goes to the scorecards, possibly for a split decision; I'm taking Nam Phan here, all day. I cap him at +140, so this line is another big steal. Wouldn't be a bad idea to parlay Albert and Phan: $100 to win $1,036.
My third dog play will be on BJ Penn +245 over Rory MacDonald. I am not overly confident in this play; I think Penn should be +400. Though, much like Tito vs Bader, I see several outs for BJ. I know he's strong enough to put Rory away if he starts connecting. I also know it's over if he sneakily manages to latch on to Rory's back during some exchange. It's also over if he gets full control of an arm. It's gonna be a small play for me.
I am gonna wait for all three of these lines to improve before placing my wagers, I think they will all grow to become bigger dogs.
Now, let's move onto my top plays, starting with my number one play on the card: BIG MIKE "THE HULK" EASTON over Hafael Ass-sounds-OW. I think Easton is gonna prove to be too powerful for Assuncao, so he isn't gonna wanna keep standing with him, and will initiate the grappling. If Easton doesn't put him away on the feet, he will do enough damage there and also on the ground, if it goes there, to earn the decision. I personally don't think Assuncao will survive all three rounds, but we'll see. I'm expecting and hoping for a first round finish for Big Mike.
My second favorite play is TIM MEANS BUSINESS -310 over Abel Trujillo. I don't get this fight. Is Trujillo really UFC caliber? I'm not sure he is. Seems like an easy gift fight for Tim Means. He's got the size, reach, and stand-up advantage. Not to mention, he's been red hot, coming off a knockout win over a dude with a good chin. I thought he would get a bigger fight after that win, but he's getting some nobody with a poor resume? He's got no wins over anyone half decent. I hope Means makes quick work here, but not expecting it.
My third is on ALEXANDER GUSTAFSSON -205 over Shogun HUAAAAAAAAA. It's Gusty's time, he's on the way up, and Shogun is on his way down. He didn't hand select this opponent like he did Brandon Vera. He barely won the Vera fight, then turned down a fight with Jon Jones, so he was given an opponent who is a legitimate threat. Gusty is going to get past Shogun. He says he is going to be looking to finish. I could see that, but I expect this to be Gustafsson by Decision.
Rest, soon...
Let's hit some plays!
I'll get started with my three dog plays on the card. First, I like John Albert +220 over Scott Jorgensen. I think the value is with Albert, all day. Jorgensen doesn't seem to be improving, while Albert certainly is. Jorgensen may be underestimating him, too. I am expecting an early finish from John Albert. It's important that he be dominant early on. If this goes to a decision, unless Albert's cardio has drastically improved, the W will likely go to Jorgensen. However, I could see Albert beating Jorgensen up in the first round, having enough heart to take the second round, then losing a wrestling match in the third. I cap Albert at +125, so this price is a steal.
Next, I'm taking Nam "Number 1" Phan +255 over Denis Siver. I expect this to be a pretty close contested stand-up battle that goes to the scorecards, possibly for a split decision; I'm taking Nam Phan here, all day. I cap him at +140, so this line is another big steal. Wouldn't be a bad idea to parlay Albert and Phan: $100 to win $1,036.
My third dog play will be on BJ Penn +245 over Rory MacDonald. I am not overly confident in this play; I think Penn should be +400. Though, much like Tito vs Bader, I see several outs for BJ. I know he's strong enough to put Rory away if he starts connecting. I also know it's over if he sneakily manages to latch on to Rory's back during some exchange. It's also over if he gets full control of an arm. It's gonna be a small play for me.
I am gonna wait for all three of these lines to improve before placing my wagers, I think they will all grow to become bigger dogs.
Now, let's move onto my top plays, starting with my number one play on the card: BIG MIKE "THE HULK" EASTON over Hafael Ass-sounds-OW. I think Easton is gonna prove to be too powerful for Assuncao, so he isn't gonna wanna keep standing with him, and will initiate the grappling. If Easton doesn't put him away on the feet, he will do enough damage there and also on the ground, if it goes there, to earn the decision. I personally don't think Assuncao will survive all three rounds, but we'll see. I'm expecting and hoping for a first round finish for Big Mike.
My second favorite play is TIM MEANS BUSINESS -310 over Abel Trujillo. I don't get this fight. Is Trujillo really UFC caliber? I'm not sure he is. Seems like an easy gift fight for Tim Means. He's got the size, reach, and stand-up advantage. Not to mention, he's been red hot, coming off a knockout win over a dude with a good chin. I thought he would get a bigger fight after that win, but he's getting some nobody with a poor resume? He's got no wins over anyone half decent. I hope Means makes quick work here, but not expecting it.
My third is on ALEXANDER GUSTAFSSON -205 over Shogun HUAAAAAAAAA. It's Gusty's time, he's on the way up, and Shogun is on his way down. He didn't hand select this opponent like he did Brandon Vera. He barely won the Vera fight, then turned down a fight with Jon Jones, so he was given an opponent who is a legitimate threat. Gusty is going to get past Shogun. He says he is going to be looking to finish. I could see that, but I expect this to be Gustafsson by Decision.
Rest, soon...
Phan's boxing is legit, but I can't forget how often he gets tagged, pretty bad defense, lacking stopping power, and just not as much versatility against a dude who's base was created on the kickboxing circut. Can't knock you tho for taking him at nice dog odd, gl.
