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  • Willie Bee
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-14-06
    • 15726

    #1
    Front Page MLB Picks (Mon., Sep 22)
    Pennant races winding down for MLB betting

    There will be no magical final season for Yankee Stadium as the MLB cathedral closed Sunday night with a 7-3 win for New York over the Baltimore Orioles. Now the attention turns to the last few playoff slots still available in the majors. The White Sox can close out the AL Central title with a series win this week at the Twins while the Mets and Phillies take the NL East to the wire.

    Most of the MLB playoff slots are already spoken for, with just three of the eight spots left to iron out. The AL still has the Central division to decide, with the NL East and Wild Card slots still up for grabs in the Senior Circuit.

    The Angels basically wrapped up the West back in April and avoiding some skunk job this week, they’ll have the home field advantage throughout the postseason as long as they keep winning. The Rays are without a doubt the least likely team you’ll see in this postseason, and they still have the edge to take their first ever AL East title with a game-&-a-half lead over Boston in the division.

    After 10-straight 90+ loss seasons, Tampa Bay is enjoying a 90+ win season in 2008, and manager Joe Maddon and his club deserve every accolade thrown at them from here on out. It’s a pity that not too many fans in Tampa-St. Pete seem to know they even have a team, much less have a darned good one. It will be interesting to see if they indeed fill up The Trop for these games, and how the club handles playing front of a boisterous, pro-Rays crowd if they do.

    The Red Sox are guaranteed to be in the postseason and have a shot to defend their 2007 championship. Amazing turnaround for a franchise that was snake bit for so long and will now vie for their third World Series in five seasons. I’m giving Terry Francona his due this year with some of the injuries and distractions they had on this club nothing short of the same distractions and injuries that Billy Martin and Joe Torre went through with the Yankees when they each won pennants and Series crowns.

    Oh yeah, speaking of the Yankees, they’re kaput. It’s something you will hear Joe Buck, Tim McCarver and every other talking head go on ad nauseum this October, so feel free to get some practice in on pressing the MUTE button on your remote now. Yankee haters are, of course, both numerous and beside themselves with the fact New York will not play on after an AL record 13-straight seasons in the playoffs. Can’t say I blame them too much since most of us don’t like to see any one person or team have a stranglehold on a sport. But at the same time I hope some of the Yankee haters choke on their hatred.

    So that just leaves the AL Central where Ozzie Guillen’s Pale Hose take a 2½-game lead over the Minnesota Twins into the final week of play. And this should provide the MLB with some very good drama leading into the playoffs since the two teams open a 3-game set in the Twin Cities on Tuesday night. Minnesota is -140 favorites at The Greek in the series, and they'll need to follow through on that chalk if not sweep the three-game set to have a shot this year.

    Javier Vazques, Mark Buehrle and Gavin Floyd currently fill out Guillen's rotation for the series while Ron Gardenhire counters with Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey. Let’s see if Bud Selig and the networks are smart enough to feed that series to the public Tue-Thu.

    The White Sox will close out at home in Chicago next weekend against the Indians while the Twins host the Kansas City Royals. And keep in mind that Chicago has a possible rainout from a weekend ago to make up at Comiskey Jr. on Monday, Sep 29, against the Tigers.

    Technically the only thing certain about the NL is the Chicago Cubs are in. In my lifetime I can count on one hand the number of times I’ve heard the terms ‘NL postseason certainty’ and ‘the Chicago Cubs’ in the same sentence. I’ve disliked this team since one of their welshing fans weasled on a 5-cent bet back in 1962, but this year I gotta’ say, they have a feel of destiny to them.

    The Dodgers should have the West well in hand; with a 3½-game lead entering the final week, I’m pretty sure that Manny being Manny can’t even fudge this up. The irony here is that Joe Torre appears headed for his 13th consecutive postseason while his former squad in the Bronx just has the new stadium to look forward to in after this next Sunday.

    The NL East present finds the Phillies up by a game-&-a-half over the Mets. With New York owning a game lead over Milwaukee in the NL Wild Card chase and Houston four back and out of it. Philadelphia will have the luxury of playing six the final week at home vs. the Braves and Nationals.

    The Mets meanwhile will also be at home bidding their beloved Shea adieu but without the luxury of a day off this week. First up is a 4-game series with the Cubs, and that series has strange written all over it. You’ve got to think that Lou will rest some position starters this week, at least pull them early from games. He’ll also go to the pen earlier, and could shake up his rotation by squeezing in a start for someone else this week in order to set things up for how he wants it next week in the NLDS.

    Jonathan Niese, Johan Santana, Oliver Perez and Pedro Martinez are in line to start the four games for New York. Jason Marquis, Rich Harden, Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly are listed for Chicago, though that could change. The Mets are -150 favorites in the week's opening series with the Cubs +130. New York will close Shea against the Marlins next weekend.

    Milwaukee is going to have to bully their way in, either that or count on a Phillies or Mets collapse. The Brewers also have will be at home with 3-game sets against the Pirates and the Cubs. So there’s another angle for MLB and the networks to cover this week as they are set up to showcase the Cubs, Mets and Bud’s old team.

    In fact, the Brewers remain the only team that can muck up the TV works for the most part this postseason. With the Cubs, Dodgers, Phils and probably the Mets in the NL, you have four big markets and all sort of angles to deal. The Rays are a fly in the ointment for Madison Ave, but not as bad a choice as Milwaukee, I’m guessing. No more Houston a la 2005 or the Rockies last season to gum things up for FOX, ESPN, TBS and a few other mediot acronyms.

    Right now, I’m thinking the No. 1 choice for FOX as far as the World Series goes is the Dodgers vs. the Red Sox. Torre against Francona. Manny being Manny back in Boston for at least a couple of games. Yankees fans will watch that one too just to root against Boston, so that’s another plus in the factor. Mets fans will watch to root against everyone. Cubs fans will watch. Like usual.

    Speaking of Chicago’s North Siders, the Cubs vs. the Red Sox would be the second preference, I’m guessing again. I’m also assuming FOX would prefer both the Twins and Brewers go oh-for this week.

    Back to the Futures
    Love to play futures, the rec player that I really am. So I constantly find myself checking back on some season odds, whether I played ‘em right or wrong. I have a shot at finishing just above even-money for my futures, but the Angels and Mets will have to me in the World Series for that to happen. Otherwise I’ll be in the red.

    But in case you are one of the fortunate few who has some future on the Tampa Bay Rays, you have to start thinking about bringing even more money home. If was on the O/U at about 73 wins, you’ve already cashed, congratulations, proceed to go and collect your winnings. If you had them around 28:1 in the AL East, 54:1 in the AL and up there in the 80-to-90:1 as World Series champs, a week from now you need to start throwing down some insurance and playing against them in the ALDS, especially if they’re playing the Twins or White Sox.

    Assuming the Cinder-Ray-las close out as AL East champs, they’ll draw the ALC champ while the Red Sox go out to open against the Angels in what most will think is really the ALCS. Could be some softer lines in the Tampa series against Chicago with more public on the ChiSox. If the Rays meet the Twins, John Q. won’t even sniff that series except for somebody that is just waking up to the Rays having a good team this season.

    The Angels, Red Sox and the Mets provide the smallest hedging opportunities at this point. L.A. was a -200 or more favorite to win their division, and around 5:1 or 6:1 to take the AL Flag with 11:1 a price in mid-April to win their second World Series.

    In late-March, the Greek had Boston on heavy chalk at -125 to win their division, around 3:1 win the AL flag and less than 5:1 to win their second straight World Series. If you bought into the Mets very, very early, you got a better deal though not by much. This past April, the Amazin’s were -220 in the NL East, less than 3: 1 to take the NL Pennant and 7:1 or less to win it all.
  • Willie Bee
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-14-06
    • 15726

    #2
    Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers to struggle Under 9½

    Game Time: 09/22/2008 07:05 PM -
    By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

    Both Meche and Miner have had success vs. their opponents tonight. With each pitcher going three for three in Quality Starts vs. these teams in 2008, go Under.

    The Kansas City Royals and the Detroit Tigers have a history of playing low scoring games against each other, and we look for this to continue tonight when Gil Meche opposes Zach Miner.

    Meche has been a workhorse with a commendable 12-11 record for the Royals, with Kansas City going 17-15 as a team in all of his starts. He is coming off of a fine outing vs. the Seattle Mariners, where he allowed two runs and six hits in seven innings for his third Quality Start in his last four starts and his fifth in his last seven outings.

    Meche has actually pitched better on the road than at home this season, as he owns a nice 3.68 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 16 road starts. Perhaps most importantly, Meche has reeled off five consecutive Quality Starts vs. these Tigers including a perfect three for three this season.

    Now Miner has been mediocre at best, but he did have an excellent outing at Texas last time out where he allowed just two runs on five hits in 7.1 innings, and the Royals are one team that Miner has owned this season.

    He has allowed a grand total of one run in three starts vs. Kansas City this year covering 19 innings. Now we do not expect that kind of success again here, but we do expect him to pitch reasonably well enough to keep this total down.

    Finally, the Under is now 16-5-1 in the last 22 meetings between these teams.

    Free Pick: Royals, Tigers Under 9½ (-120)
    Comment
    • Willie Bee
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 02-14-06
      • 15726

      #3
      Under 8 when the LA Angels visit the Seattle Mariners

      Game Time: 09/22/2008 10:10 PM -
      By: Al McMordie | bigal.com

      The Under has cashed the last three meetings between these two and another low-scoring contest is on tap tonight when the Angels travel to meet the Seattle Mariners.

      Our Monday night MLB selection is on the Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners remaining under the total at Safeco Field.

      The Mariners have been having a real problem scoring runs lately, which should not be surprising when you look at their everyday lineup. Seattle has only managed to score more than three runs once in their last 10 games, and they have been shutout three times during that period.

      Now that the season is almost over, the Mariners can reflect back on the trade that brought lefthanded starter Erik Bedard to the team. Seattle gave up five top prospects to the Orioles for Bedard, and with the lefty now opting for surgery on his sore shoulder it is being reported that the team may not extend his contract this offseason, and he will become a free agent. If that happens, and it turns out that they gave up five of their best young players for 81 innings of a rented pitcher, then this can no doubt be considered the worst trade in franchise history.

      The only thing that might help ease the pain of losing Bedard after such a short stint is the fact that they have another talented young lefty waiting in the wings in tonight's starter, Aussie Ryan Rowland-Smith. The 25-year-old may not have the strikeout potential that Bedard has, but he has done nothing wrong this season and deserves a chance as a full-time starter in 2008.

      The Under is 3-0 in the last three meetings of these teams, and I look for another low-scoring game here. Take the Under.

      Free Pick: Angels-Mariners Under 8 (-110)
      Comment
      • Willie Bee
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 02-14-06
        • 15726

        #4
        Oakland A's +117 to stay hot at Texas Rangers

        Game Time: 09/22/2008 08:05 PM -
        By: Jimmy the Moose | sportspic.com

        Just because neither team is in the playoff hunt doesn't mean there isn't money to be made. Play the Oakland A's on Monday night when they visit the Texas Rangers.

        The Oakland A's have won seven of their last eight games. Oakland is 5-0 in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record. Oakland is 10-1 in their last 11 games opening up a series. The A's have won four of their last five road games.

        Texas is 2-6 in their last eight games overall. The Rangers are 7-16 in their last 23 home games. Texas has lost their last five divisional games. The Rangers are 3-7 in Kevin Millwood's last 10 starts vs. AL West opponents.

        In a game that means nothing in the standings, take the team playing better at this time; play on the A's.

        Free Pick: Athletics +117
        Comment
        • Willie Bee
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 02-14-06
          • 15726

          #5
          Arizona Diamondbacks, Brandon Webb -122 at St. Louis Cardinals

          Game Time: 09/22/2008 08:15 PM -
          By: Nick Parsons | sportspic.com

          With Arizona on the road, the price on Brandon Webb tonight is lower than usual. Play Webb and the Diamondbacks Monday evening when they visit the St. Louis Cardinals.

          The D-Backs?! Well, it definitely could be too little too late but the Diamondbacks are certainly giving it their best shot as they enter the final week of the MLB regular season. With yesterday's 13-4 win, Arizona has now won six of their last seven games and they've given up and average of less than three runs per game during this streak.

          With Brandon Webb on the mound, the solid pitching should continue for the Diamondbacks. Webb is simply phenomenal as he?s 21-7 this season including 10-5 on the road with a 3.28 ERA and opponents are hitting just .226 against him. Don't be fooled by his 2-4 career mark against St Louis as he's held the Cardinals to a .243 BAA in his career.

          He's also facing the Cards at the right time as St Louis has lost 10 of their last 12 games and have scored three runs or less in seven of those 12 games. They certainly are unlikely to enjoy facing Webb.

          Making matters worse for the Cards is their own pitcher, Todd Wellemeyer, is likely to get rocked here! The Cardinals right-hander has an 8.22 ERA in five career appearances against Arizona.

          This is simply a classic case of two teams heading in opposite directions and with the D-Backs being on the road, they are loaded with line value here! Having Webb on the hill is a tremendous value and we're recommending you play them here on Monday.

          Free Pick: Diamondbacks -122
          Comment
          • Willie Bee
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 02-14-06
            • 15726

            #6
            Phillies -150 stay hot at home in Philadelphia vs. Atlanta Braves

            Game Time: 09/22/2008 07:05 PM -
            By: Ben Burns | experts.covers.com

            Having won eight of their last nine, look for the Phillies to remain hot and in control of the NL East. Play Philadelphia at home Monday when they host the Atlanta Braves.

            The Phillies remain red hot. With another victory yesterday, Philadelphia is now 8-1 in their last nine and 14-6 their last 20.

            The Braves also won yesterday. However, Atlanta is still just 2-4 their last six games. Additionally, yesterday's victory came at home and we find them at a dismal 26-49 on the road for the season.

            In addition to having homefield advantage and being the "hotter" team, the Phillies also have the hotter starting pitcher. Although it's still been a limited "sample size," James Anthony 'J.A.' Happ has been dominant as a starter. Last week, he pitched six shutout innings against these same Braves. The Phillies won 6-1. That gives him a 2.12 ERA and 1.176 WHIP in three career starts.

            On the other hand, Jair Jurrjens was the loser in that game and has an ugly 5.06 ERA and 1.812 WHIP his last three starts. Including Happ's recent victory over Jurrgens, the Phillies are a remarkable 13-2 (+11.4) against the Braves on the season.

            Considering that the Phillies hit better and have a much better bullpen, the current price of -150 seems reasonable. Consider Philadelphia.

            Free Pick: Phillies -150
            Comment
            • Willie Bee
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 02-14-06
              • 15726

              #7
              Oakland A’s +125 to upset Rangers

              Game Time: 09/22/2008 08:05 PM -
              By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

              The Oakland A’s have won seven of their last eight games thanks to a nice infusion of youth into what had been a dormant lineup. The Rangers have struggled since the All-Star break. Play the A’s as dogs.

              The Oakland Athletics and the Texas Rangers are two clubs going in opposite directions, so the Athletics offer some very nice value as decided underdogs in this spot.

              Oakland may have a very bright future, as this club has played much better since filling their lineup with youngsters after September 1. The team is playing with a youthful exuberance after plodding along the first five months of the season, and the Athletics are now 7-1 in their last eight games.

              On the flip side, the Rangers quit on this season a long time ago, and they have been downright dismal since the All-Star break. Texas has lost four straight games and six of their last eight, and they have had an alarming fall-off offensively after tearing the ball up the first half of the season.

              We will go with the hot team vs. the dead team as an underdog in this spot.

              Free Pick: Athletics +125
              Comment
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