Betting MLB Totals: Advantage pitchers
Scoring is down across the board so far this season in the majors, with the Under currently cashing at a 53.3%. Not only are hitters getting on base at a slower clip, pitchers are doing their part to keep the ball inside stadium confines. Meanwhile this week, a rematch of the 2006 World Series takes place in Motown when the Tigers host the Cardinals while the '07 champion Red Sox host the Diamondbacks.
It was business as usual for baseball handicappers in the Windy City. The Chicago Cubs wrapped up Sunday’s slate with a 7-1 victory over the crosstown White Sox; the Cubs won all three games to improve to 48-28 on the season, good for an MLB-best 14.98 units in earnings.
But that’s not all. The Under also cashed in for the second time in three games, upping its record to 578-507. That’s enough for a slim profit at 53.27 percent against the betting odds on the season.
What’s the cause? Let’s start with a look at how hitters are performing compared to last year. These stats are as of the end of Saturday’s games:
AL 2008: .740 OPS
AL 2007: .761 OPS
NL 2008: .741 OPS
NL 2007: .757 OPS
Here we see a significant drop across the majors. If you break OPS down into its component parts (on-base and slugging percentages), you’ll see a decline in both categories. Hitters are getting on base less often, and they’re hitting with less power.
Looking at the pitching numbers will necessarily show a similar result, since pitchers are measured by their failure to prevent the other team from getting on base and scoring. But there is at least one statistic that deserves a second look: BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls In Play.
AL 2008: .297 BABIP
AL 2007: .308 BABIP
NL 2008: .299 BABIP
NL 2007: .305 BABIP
Current thinking in the seamhead community is that pitchers don’t have much say over what happens to a ball once it’s in play. It turns out that the 2007 BABIP numbers were the highest they’ve been over the past 50 years; we appear to be “regressing to the mean” this season, even with the general rise in BABIP since the days of Early Wynn and Ernie Banks.
In other words, don’t chalk it up to the crackdown on steroids and amphetamines. After all, pitchers used/use those substances, too.
Coming up this week...
Cardinals at Tigers
Game 1: Tuesday, 7:05 p.m. Eastern
STL: Braden Looper
DET: Kenny Rogers
Game 2: Wednesday, 7:05 p.m.
STL: Todd Wellemeyer*
DET: Armando Galarraga
Game 3: Thursday, 1:05 p.m.
STL: Kyle Lohse
DET: Eddie Bonine
The Cardinals took two of three at Fenway to sit at 44-33, good for 10.96 units (fifth in the majors). St. Louis also remains in fifth place with a .348 OBP. The Cards are relatively weak in pitching, sitting in 12th overall at 4.03 ERA, but their fortunes may improve with the expected return of Todd Wellemeyer (elbow) in either Game 2 or Game 3. Albert Pujols (calf) is also due back Thursday.
Meanwhile, things are looking bright again in Motown after the Tigers wrapped up a 4-2 West Coast swing to improve to 12-3 over the past two weeks and 36-39 on the season. They’re still 9.56 units in the hole, but that’s ancient history now. Rookie Armando Galarraga is the big surprise here; he sports a 3.03 ERA after 11 starts, although his 4.58 xFIP suggests a downgrade is in order.
Diamondbacks at Red Sox
Game 1: Monday, 7:05 p.m. Eastern (ESPN)
ARI: Dan Haren
BOS: Josh Beckett
Game 2: Tuesday, 7:05 p.m.
ARI: Doug Davis
BOS: Justin Masterson
Game 3: Wednesday, 7:05 p.m. (ESPN2)
ARI: Randy Johnson
BOS: Tim Wakefield
The Snakes continue to slide down the NL West ladder after their hot start. They were swept in Minnesota over the weekend to fall to 39-37, 6.65 units in the red. Arizona is dead last in the majors with a .295 OBP over the past 30 days. There’s a chance that Eric Byrnes (hamstring) could be activated Monday, but the pitching hasn’t been very sharp either at 4.68 ERA this past month, or 23rd in the bigs.
Boston can afford an off day or two at 47-31 and 10.42 units in the black. Kevin Youkilis (back spasms) returned against the Cardinals after missing the entire Philadelphia series and hit the sayonara home run to win Sunday’s contest in the 13th. David Ortiz (wrist) is still out of commission until mid-July, but Justin Masterson (3.00 ERA, 4.10 xFIP after six starts) stays in the starting rotation after filling in admirably for Daisuke Matsuzaka.
Scoring is down across the board so far this season in the majors, with the Under currently cashing at a 53.3%. Not only are hitters getting on base at a slower clip, pitchers are doing their part to keep the ball inside stadium confines. Meanwhile this week, a rematch of the 2006 World Series takes place in Motown when the Tigers host the Cardinals while the '07 champion Red Sox host the Diamondbacks.
It was business as usual for baseball handicappers in the Windy City. The Chicago Cubs wrapped up Sunday’s slate with a 7-1 victory over the crosstown White Sox; the Cubs won all three games to improve to 48-28 on the season, good for an MLB-best 14.98 units in earnings.
But that’s not all. The Under also cashed in for the second time in three games, upping its record to 578-507. That’s enough for a slim profit at 53.27 percent against the betting odds on the season.
What’s the cause? Let’s start with a look at how hitters are performing compared to last year. These stats are as of the end of Saturday’s games:
AL 2008: .740 OPS
AL 2007: .761 OPS
NL 2008: .741 OPS
NL 2007: .757 OPS
Here we see a significant drop across the majors. If you break OPS down into its component parts (on-base and slugging percentages), you’ll see a decline in both categories. Hitters are getting on base less often, and they’re hitting with less power.
Looking at the pitching numbers will necessarily show a similar result, since pitchers are measured by their failure to prevent the other team from getting on base and scoring. But there is at least one statistic that deserves a second look: BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls In Play.
AL 2008: .297 BABIP
AL 2007: .308 BABIP
NL 2008: .299 BABIP
NL 2007: .305 BABIP
Current thinking in the seamhead community is that pitchers don’t have much say over what happens to a ball once it’s in play. It turns out that the 2007 BABIP numbers were the highest they’ve been over the past 50 years; we appear to be “regressing to the mean” this season, even with the general rise in BABIP since the days of Early Wynn and Ernie Banks.
In other words, don’t chalk it up to the crackdown on steroids and amphetamines. After all, pitchers used/use those substances, too.
Coming up this week...
Cardinals at Tigers
Game 1: Tuesday, 7:05 p.m. Eastern
STL: Braden Looper
DET: Kenny Rogers
Game 2: Wednesday, 7:05 p.m.
STL: Todd Wellemeyer*
DET: Armando Galarraga
Game 3: Thursday, 1:05 p.m.
STL: Kyle Lohse
DET: Eddie Bonine
The Cardinals took two of three at Fenway to sit at 44-33, good for 10.96 units (fifth in the majors). St. Louis also remains in fifth place with a .348 OBP. The Cards are relatively weak in pitching, sitting in 12th overall at 4.03 ERA, but their fortunes may improve with the expected return of Todd Wellemeyer (elbow) in either Game 2 or Game 3. Albert Pujols (calf) is also due back Thursday.
Meanwhile, things are looking bright again in Motown after the Tigers wrapped up a 4-2 West Coast swing to improve to 12-3 over the past two weeks and 36-39 on the season. They’re still 9.56 units in the hole, but that’s ancient history now. Rookie Armando Galarraga is the big surprise here; he sports a 3.03 ERA after 11 starts, although his 4.58 xFIP suggests a downgrade is in order.
Diamondbacks at Red Sox
Game 1: Monday, 7:05 p.m. Eastern (ESPN)
ARI: Dan Haren
BOS: Josh Beckett
Game 2: Tuesday, 7:05 p.m.
ARI: Doug Davis
BOS: Justin Masterson
Game 3: Wednesday, 7:05 p.m. (ESPN2)
ARI: Randy Johnson
BOS: Tim Wakefield
The Snakes continue to slide down the NL West ladder after their hot start. They were swept in Minnesota over the weekend to fall to 39-37, 6.65 units in the red. Arizona is dead last in the majors with a .295 OBP over the past 30 days. There’s a chance that Eric Byrnes (hamstring) could be activated Monday, but the pitching hasn’t been very sharp either at 4.68 ERA this past month, or 23rd in the bigs.
Boston can afford an off day or two at 47-31 and 10.42 units in the black. Kevin Youkilis (back spasms) returned against the Cardinals after missing the entire Philadelphia series and hit the sayonara home run to win Sunday’s contest in the 13th. David Ortiz (wrist) is still out of commission until mid-July, but Justin Masterson (3.00 ERA, 4.10 xFIP after six starts) stays in the starting rotation after filling in admirably for Daisuke Matsuzaka.
