MLB Betting Intangibles: The Best Managers
Can baseball managers really make a difference? You bet they can. While they can't physically control the pitches and catches or the bats and the baserunning, their pregame and in-game decisions can greatly affect the wins and losses both on the field and at the pay window. Meanwhile on the diamonds, weekend action includes a 2004 World Series rematch with the Boston Red Sox at the St. Louis Cardinals.
We’ve had our first two managerial casualties of the 2008 MLB campaign. The New York Mets fired Willie Randolph on Tuesday, while the Seattle Mariners gave John McLaren the boot on Thursday.
These moves will have very little impact on the MLB betting odds. Managers don’t factor all that much into the outcome of a single baseball game. But they can make a difference over the course of a 162-game season.
James Click, formerly with Baseball Prospectus and now an employee of the Tampa Bay Rays, estimates a difference of 26 runs over the course of a season between a team’s best-possible and worst-possible batting orders. McLaren drew criticism for having players like Jose Vidro (.590 OPS) in the middle of the lineup.
With that in mind, here are my highly subjective candidates for Best Manager in the American and National Leagues.
American League
Mike Scioscia, Los Angeles Angels: Scioscia also gets Jon Heyman’s vote over at Sports Illustrated, but I won’t hold that against him. At press time, Scioscia’s Angels were in first place in the AL West at 43-30 despite outscoring the opposition by a slim 308-306 margin.
He’s squeezed extra runs out of his injury-riddled roster by easing up a bit on the aggressive running game and letting the middle of the batting order do more of the talking. Scioscia also has the respect of everyone on his team, from the front office to the batboys.
National League
Bobby Cox, Atlanta Braves: I really wanted to put Manny Acta of the Washington Nationals here as one of the small, but growing, contingent of seamhead-friendly managers in the big leagues. But there is something to be said for longevity. Cox has been a rock in the Braves dugout since 1990, and enjoyed a successful run with the Toronto Blue Jays before that.
All told, Cox has four Manager of the Year awards and a World Series ring – and he was responsible for drafting Chipper Jones.
Coming up this weekend...
Cardinals at Red Sox
Game 1: Friday, 7:05 p.m. Eastern
STL: Kyle Lohse
BOS: Tim Wakefield
Game 2: Saturday, 3:55 p.m. (FOX)
STL: Mitchell Boggs
BOS: Daisuke Matsuzaka
Game 3: Sunday, 1:35 p.m.
STL: Joel Pineiro
BOS: Jon Lester
The 42-32 Cardinals have kept pace with the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central, collecting 8.03 units in profit. It’s been mostly on the strength of the batting order, which is fifth in the majors with a .348 OBP. However, Albert Pujols (1.105 OPS) is on the shelf with a strained left calf, and Yadier Molina (.354 OBP) is day-to-day with a concussion. St. Louis is 12th in the majors with a 4.06 ERA and is missing its best two pitchers this year: Adam Wainwright (finger) and Todd Wellemeyer (elbow).
Boston replies with a 3.84 team ERA (seventh in the bigs) and a .451 slugging percentage, behind only the Texas Rangers. The Red Sox have some injury concerns of their own with David Ortiz (wrist) and Kevin Youkilis (back), but Daisuke Matsuzaka will make his return from the DL after missing three weeks with a strained shoulder. Matsuzaka is 8-0 with a 2.53 ERA and 8.29 of Boston’s MLB-best 13.63 units of profit.
Indians at Dodgers
Game 1: Friday, 10:40 p.m. Eastern
CLE: Cliff Lee
LAD: Clayton Kershaw
Game 2: Saturday, 3:55 p.m. (FOX)
CLE: C.C. Sabathia
LAD: Hirkoi Kuroda*
Game 3: Sunday, 4:10 p.m.
CLE: Paul Byrd
LAD: Chad Billingsley
Cleveland fans are still trying to figure out what went wrong. The Tribe is 33-39 despite outscoring opponents 324-312, good for a pythagorean record of 37-35 and a loss of 16.62 units. Only the Mariners (-25.08 units) have been more disappointing. Cleveland is 23rd in hitting with a .713 OPS and 16th in pitching at 4.17 ERA; their lineup has been gutted by injuries to Travis Hafner (shoulder) and Victor Martinez (elbow).
The 34-38 Dodgers (37-35 pythagorean) are coming back home after a sweep of the Cincinnati Reds put the brakes on an awful 6-17 slump. They’re still 7.99 units in the hole, thanks to their .712 team OPS and the loss of Rafael Furcal (1.045 OPS) until after the All-Star break. The buzz from Chavez Ravine at press time was that Chan Ho Park would start Saturday’s game with Hideki Kuroda expected to hit the DL with tendinitis in his shoulder.
Can baseball managers really make a difference? You bet they can. While they can't physically control the pitches and catches or the bats and the baserunning, their pregame and in-game decisions can greatly affect the wins and losses both on the field and at the pay window. Meanwhile on the diamonds, weekend action includes a 2004 World Series rematch with the Boston Red Sox at the St. Louis Cardinals.
We’ve had our first two managerial casualties of the 2008 MLB campaign. The New York Mets fired Willie Randolph on Tuesday, while the Seattle Mariners gave John McLaren the boot on Thursday.
These moves will have very little impact on the MLB betting odds. Managers don’t factor all that much into the outcome of a single baseball game. But they can make a difference over the course of a 162-game season.
James Click, formerly with Baseball Prospectus and now an employee of the Tampa Bay Rays, estimates a difference of 26 runs over the course of a season between a team’s best-possible and worst-possible batting orders. McLaren drew criticism for having players like Jose Vidro (.590 OPS) in the middle of the lineup.
With that in mind, here are my highly subjective candidates for Best Manager in the American and National Leagues.
American League
Mike Scioscia, Los Angeles Angels: Scioscia also gets Jon Heyman’s vote over at Sports Illustrated, but I won’t hold that against him. At press time, Scioscia’s Angels were in first place in the AL West at 43-30 despite outscoring the opposition by a slim 308-306 margin.
He’s squeezed extra runs out of his injury-riddled roster by easing up a bit on the aggressive running game and letting the middle of the batting order do more of the talking. Scioscia also has the respect of everyone on his team, from the front office to the batboys.
National League
Bobby Cox, Atlanta Braves: I really wanted to put Manny Acta of the Washington Nationals here as one of the small, but growing, contingent of seamhead-friendly managers in the big leagues. But there is something to be said for longevity. Cox has been a rock in the Braves dugout since 1990, and enjoyed a successful run with the Toronto Blue Jays before that.
All told, Cox has four Manager of the Year awards and a World Series ring – and he was responsible for drafting Chipper Jones.
Coming up this weekend...
Cardinals at Red Sox
Game 1: Friday, 7:05 p.m. Eastern
STL: Kyle Lohse
BOS: Tim Wakefield
Game 2: Saturday, 3:55 p.m. (FOX)
STL: Mitchell Boggs
BOS: Daisuke Matsuzaka
Game 3: Sunday, 1:35 p.m.
STL: Joel Pineiro
BOS: Jon Lester
The 42-32 Cardinals have kept pace with the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central, collecting 8.03 units in profit. It’s been mostly on the strength of the batting order, which is fifth in the majors with a .348 OBP. However, Albert Pujols (1.105 OPS) is on the shelf with a strained left calf, and Yadier Molina (.354 OBP) is day-to-day with a concussion. St. Louis is 12th in the majors with a 4.06 ERA and is missing its best two pitchers this year: Adam Wainwright (finger) and Todd Wellemeyer (elbow).
Boston replies with a 3.84 team ERA (seventh in the bigs) and a .451 slugging percentage, behind only the Texas Rangers. The Red Sox have some injury concerns of their own with David Ortiz (wrist) and Kevin Youkilis (back), but Daisuke Matsuzaka will make his return from the DL after missing three weeks with a strained shoulder. Matsuzaka is 8-0 with a 2.53 ERA and 8.29 of Boston’s MLB-best 13.63 units of profit.
Indians at Dodgers
Game 1: Friday, 10:40 p.m. Eastern
CLE: Cliff Lee
LAD: Clayton Kershaw
Game 2: Saturday, 3:55 p.m. (FOX)
CLE: C.C. Sabathia
LAD: Hirkoi Kuroda*
Game 3: Sunday, 4:10 p.m.
CLE: Paul Byrd
LAD: Chad Billingsley
Cleveland fans are still trying to figure out what went wrong. The Tribe is 33-39 despite outscoring opponents 324-312, good for a pythagorean record of 37-35 and a loss of 16.62 units. Only the Mariners (-25.08 units) have been more disappointing. Cleveland is 23rd in hitting with a .713 OPS and 16th in pitching at 4.17 ERA; their lineup has been gutted by injuries to Travis Hafner (shoulder) and Victor Martinez (elbow).
The 34-38 Dodgers (37-35 pythagorean) are coming back home after a sweep of the Cincinnati Reds put the brakes on an awful 6-17 slump. They’re still 7.99 units in the hole, thanks to their .712 team OPS and the loss of Rafael Furcal (1.045 OPS) until after the All-Star break. The buzz from Chavez Ravine at press time was that Chan Ho Park would start Saturday’s game with Hideki Kuroda expected to hit the DL with tendinitis in his shoulder.
This hat fits me better than that other one.