LTA's MLB Plays

**Love The Action** · 06-05-12, 12:28 AM

Originally posted by hondo5

No the games just over. LTA does a poor job of accounting for momentum but for some reason talks about it in his post. His over/under bets are pretty much a joke.

Originally posted by hondo5

I call it the LTA joke. He throws trash bets on there. Goes 2-3.Then gets on and bitches about the bullpen, or the bottom of the order. Apparently this idiot doesnt account for things like that in all his advance math and bookreading.

Thanks for the good karma Hondo....

**Love The Action** · 06-05-12, 12:28 AM

Originally posted by SlickRick1382

Any thoughts on the Tigers and Orioles for tomorrow LTA?

Edit:
So much for Tigers, didn't refresh before posting.

I am playing the Tigers....see above.

More work to do on the other game. GL

**Love The Action** · 06-05-12, 12:29 AM

MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/4/2012 Recap

4 - 1 = +4.2x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

135 - 126 - 17 = +3.67x

Good luck on Monday.

**pacocn** · 06-05-12, 12:29 AM

Lta, great night my friend

keep it going.

**pacocn** · 06-05-12, 12:30 AM

Lta, keep laying the jokes on us

**pacocn** · 06-05-12, 12:31 AM

I will laugh all the way to the bank ...............

**taxe91** · 06-05-12, 12:34 AM

Originally posted by guil0000

Can Anyone comment on Pettitte's performance so far this season? Is he playing over his head? I was initially drawn to the Rays also but I'M hesitating because of Pettitte's nice advance numbers

Pettitte is doing pretty much what Jamie Moyer did in April. Hitting the corners, staying out of the middle of the zone, getting swings and misses with his curveball, the best thing about him is that he isnt walking anyone. Having said that the Angels did get after him in his last start and hes had 3 multi homer games in his 4 starts. I think the Rays are good value here especially with Big Game James on the mound. I'm not actually sure if Girardi's got him on some sort of limited pitch count because if he does then the Yankees are extra vulnerable with 3 of their top 4 bullpen arms on the DL.

**guil0000** · 06-05-12, 12:42 AM

Originally posted by taxe91

Pettitte is doing pretty much what Jamie Moyer did in April. Hitting the corners, staying out of the middle of the zone, getting swings and misses with his curveball, the best thing about him is that he isnt walking anyone. Having said that the Angels did get after him in his last start and hes had 3 multi homer games in his 4 starts. I think the Rays are good value here especially with Big Game James on the mound. I'm not actually sure if Girardi's got him on some sort of limited pitch count because if he does then the Yankees are extra vulnerable with 3 of their top 4 bullpen arms on the DL.

Thanks for the good reply. Continued success!

**brahmabull117** · 06-05-12, 12:50 AM

Originally posted by taxe91

Pettitte is doing pretty much what Jamie Moyer did in April. Hitting the corners, staying out of the middle of the zone, getting swings and misses with his curveball, the best thing about him is that he isnt walking anyone. Having said that the Angels did get after him in his last start and hes had 3 multi homer games in his 4 starts. I think the Rays are good value here especially with Big Game James on the mound. I'm not actually sure if Girardi's got him on some sort of limited pitch count because if he does then the Yankees are extra vulnerable with 3 of their top 4 bullpen arms on the DL.

It's scary fading the yanks right now with how hot that offense is. They even scored 5 runs on sunday off Verlander

**pacocn** · 06-05-12, 12:54 AM

Lta, i think there is some value with Dempster
tomorrow at +143(5dimes) Many of the Cubies
have hit Gallardo well. Although he has looked better
his last few outings, it seems that he is overvalued here.

**SlickRick1382** · 06-05-12, 01:13 AM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

It's scary fading the yanks right now with how hot that offense is. They even scored 5 runs on sunday off Verlander

You know the saying. Scared money don't make money.

Tampa's offense has been playing a lot better than the Tigers tho. They've been struggling to put up runs. Also Hasn't NYY always hit Verlander pretty well in the past?

**brahmabull117** · 06-05-12, 01:25 AM

Originally posted by SlickRick1382

You know the saying. Scared money don't make money.

Tampa's offense has been playing a lot better than the Tigers tho. They've been struggling to put up runs. Also Hasn't NYY always hit Verlander pretty well in the past?

no, Verlander had dominant numbers against the Yankees before that start. Yanks have hit James Shields hard though (0-4 last 4 starts with 4.00 era)

Just too many conflicting factors for me

**HarbaughTilting** · 06-05-12, 02:22 AM

I really like the Nationals pick. I'm considering playing this more aggressively with -2 RL.

I also think it's time to roll with the Orioles once again. They owe us.
What do you think about backing Timmy at -107?

**Love The Action** · 06-05-12, 06:22 AM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

no, Verlander had dominant numbers against the Yankees before that start. Yanks have hit James Shields hard though (0-4 last 4 starts with 4.00 era)

Just too many conflicting factors for me

Please stop citing to ERA in my thread. It is a meaningless statistic and I dont want beginners to be confused into thinking it matters. Shields has pitched well against this Yankee lineup limiting them to a .698 OPS and BAA under .240. The only Yankees hitting above .200 against Shields are Jeter, Cano and Arod.

**ebbearsfb1** · 06-05-12, 07:56 AM

Curious why do you think era is meaningless.. I know isee you use siera or something like that instead... or is a betterer stat era + (adjusted ball park era) where can you find siera stats? Nice work yesterday

**taxe91** · 06-05-12, 08:03 AM

Originally posted by ebbearsfb1

Curious why do you think era is meaningless.. I know isee you use siera or something like that instead... where can you find siera stats? Nice work yesterday

If you go to fangraphs you'll find SIERA along with a lot of other good advanced stats:

e.g. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...059&position=P if you scroll down to the 'Batted Ball' category you will find Shields' SIERA. enjoy

**ebbearsfb1** · 06-05-12, 08:07 AM

Thanks gonnna check it out

**guil0000** · 06-05-12, 08:08 AM

I wouldn't say meaningless as I use it when capping to know public perception compared to true talent (SIERA, xFIP, etc).

**Love The Action** · 06-05-12, 08:19 AM

Originally posted by ebbearsfb1

Curious why do you think era is meaningless.. I know isee you use siera or something like that instead... or is a betterer stat era + (adjusted ball park era) where can you find siera stats? Nice work yesterday

ERA is a primitive statistic that does not account for all the variables that go into a pitchers results such as defense. Defense independent stats such as SIERA, FIP, xFIP, etc. have been shown to be an accurate predictor of future results because they only take into account the pitcher and eliminate everything else from the equation. Read the book Moneyball and go through the fangraps glossary and website.

**Love The Action** · 06-05-12, 08:21 AM

Originally posted by guil0000

I wouldn't say meaningless as I use it when capping to know public perception compared to true talent (SIERA, xFIP, etc).

Correct....but it's meaningless as used in the example provided by the rock...

**ebbearsfb1** · 06-05-12, 08:27 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Correct....but it's meaningless as used in the example provided by the rock...

Haha thanks for the info... and thanks for the laugh lol

**pacocn** · 06-05-12, 08:34 AM

Lta, speaking of advanced pitching stats, it looks as
though Timmy's numbers pale in comaprison to last year.
Siera,Fip, XFip, etc. What are your feelings of backing Bass
whose sample size is small, but has better advanced numbers
than Timmy?

**Love The Action** · 06-05-12, 09:27 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/5/2012

Play #1

Devil Rays ML (+118) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Nationals -1RL (+101) 1x (Locked)

Play#3

Mariners/Angels over (8) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Tigers -1RL (-105) 1x (Locked)

Play #5

Diamondbacks -1RL (-103) 1x (Locked)

Play #6

Braves/Marlins under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Good luck.

**Love The Action** · 06-05-12, 09:29 AM

Originally posted by pacocn

Lta, speaking of advanced pitching stats, it looks as
though Timmy's numbers pale in comaprison to last year.
Siera,Fip, XFip, etc. What are your feelings of backing Bass
whose sample size is small, but has better advanced numbers
than Timmy?

They are not up to Timmy's standards but still very good. I lean under but am waiting for a better price. GL buddy.

**ebbearsfb1** · 06-05-12, 09:34 AM

Think I'm gonna use siera for my next 100 plays.. thanks lta.. see how that plays out..

**Love The Action** · 06-05-12, 10:29 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/5/2012

Play #1

Devil Rays ML (+118) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Nationals -1RL (+101) 1x (Locked)

Play#3

Mariners/Angels over (8) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Tigers -1RL (-105) 1x (Locked)

Play #5

Diamondbacks -1RL (-103) 1x (Locked)

Play #6

Braves/Marlins under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Play #7

Dodgers/Phillies under (7)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Good luck.

**Madison** · 06-05-12, 10:45 AM

No day games and 7 plays already and it's not even noon. Must of had your wheaties this morning. GL.

**CHAZ** · 06-05-12, 10:57 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Play#3
Mariners/Angels over (8) 1x (Locked)

I know you're a pretty busy guy LTA, but I'd like to hear your opinion on this game. I liked the UNDER for a good size, but I definitely respect your opinion. Who knows maybe it could save me some money.

**Love The Action** · 06-05-12, 11:04 AM

Crazy movement on that reds/pirates total. That's an interesting one considering both pitchers just faced these lineups last week...,

**Love The Action** · 06-05-12, 11:16 AM

Originally posted by CHAZ

I know you're a pretty busy guy LTA, but I'd like to hear your opinion on this game. I liked the UNDER for a good size, but I definitely respect your opinion. Who knows maybe it could save me some money.

I project both offenses to continue their recent improvement and although Beavan has a nice history against the angels, his overall numbers are poor putting him toward the bottom of my SP power rankings. Meanwhile, Richards will be starting for the first time this season and has not performed particularly well in his previous 15 innings of MLB action. Not a big sample, but he actually faced the mariners last season so the majority mariner hitters will have some familiarity with him. I expect a higher scoring game tonight. GL buddy.

**Love The Action** · 06-05-12, 12:07 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/5/2012

Play #1

Devil Rays ML (+118) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Nationals -1RL (+101) 1x (Locked)

Play#3

Mariners/Angels over (8) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Tigers -1RL (-105) 1x (Locked)

Play #5

Diamondbacks -1RL (-103) 1x (Locked)

Play #6

Braves/Marlins under (7.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Play #7

Dodgers/Phillies under (7)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Play #8

Giants/Padres under (6)(-115) 1x (Locked)

Good luck.

**Vasco** · 06-05-12, 12:37 PM

Looks like I missed 7 with the Dodgers/Phillies. I may have to pass at 6.5. Thinking of taking a gamble with under 3.5 first 5. Usually don't play first 5, but thinking that may be better value than 6.5 full game. Big card today let's get on a roll!

**jlee** · 06-05-12, 12:49 PM

3 dogs that I like today are:

Seattle over LAA
Cleveland over Tigers
Braves over Marlins

edit: Really like the OVER on the MIN/KC game. Liriano is just horrible, facing a team that has strong numbers from the right side. Chen faced the twins earlier, allowed 6 runs in 2 innings, and he's facing a hot hitting twins team.

**jlee** · 06-05-12, 01:34 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Crazy movement on that reds/pirates total. That's an interesting one considering both pitchers just faced these lineups last week...,

starting lineup for the pirates released: http://baseballpress.com/lineup.php

thoughts?

**Love The Action** · 06-05-12, 03:33 PM

Originally posted by jlee

starting lineup for the pirates released: http://baseballpress.com/lineup.php

thoughts?

I will pass on that game. GL