Wow, wouldn't it be great if Balty pulls out this game? Could we catch this game?
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Tough Loss. Bases loaded top 7th and no runs come out of it. Too many runners stranded, two many errors... Should of been an easy cash....Comment -
Haha, how can you possibly say that should of been an easy cash? It was 8-1 bro. It was a bad pick, quit sugar coating all the loses.Comment -
Question for LTA, Redscot, anybody else for when you guys inevitably get here to discuss todays card:
Ivan Nova is + money against Ervin Santana. Ivan Nova's K% is up and BB% is down from last year, his BABIP is over .350 and his SIERA is 2+ runs lower than his ERA. On the other end of the spectrum Ervin Santana's K% and BB% are moving in opposite directions to Nova's, and his SIERA is roughly where it should be (north of 4). It's a big public play, and Pujols and co. are starting to heat up so is that why the Yankees are outsiders here? There has to be more to it than home field advantage.
edit: Did more digging to find that Granderson, Cano, Ibanez, Jeter, and A-Rod all have an OPS of over .900 against Santana. All with at least 30 AB's. Safe to say I'm leaning Yankees right now.Last edited by taxe91; 05-30-12, 02:36 AM.Comment -
Tigers are 0-8 in their last 8 vs- lefties.Comment -
Id lead toward a potential over....Feel like either one of these guys can blow up at any time...Both teams bats are waking up...If only the yanks could drive in some guys when their in scoring position...I see this game being a toss up...And In my experience betting on Nova he is always giving up Home Runs and the angels score a ton of runs off the long ball...BOL with w.e you play
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Good point, Nova's already given up as many HR's this year as he did all of last year, and I feel like Pujols has hit a home run every time I've watched the Angels this week. Wonder if I'll end up having 2 plays on the same game for the first time this year.Id lead toward a potential over....Feel like either one of these guys can blow up at any time...Both teams bats are waking up...If only the yanks could drive in some guys when their in scoring position...I see this game being a toss up...And In my experience betting on Nova he is always giving up Home Runs and the angels score a ton of runs off the long ball...BOL with w.e you playLast edited by taxe91; 05-30-12, 06:25 AM.Comment -
Orioles put up six runs total, not one. Left a ton of men stranded including bases loaded in the 7th. They also had 3 errors which lead to runs. If Arrieta pitched his game and wasn't completely off then how would it not of cashed?
Perhaps you didn't watch the game and just saw the box score. I watched the game ....Comment -
1. More misspelling, improper grammar and misinformation from the alleged phd.
2. The final score was 8-6 not 8-1 with the only difference being two unearned runs allowed by an uncharacteristic 3 Baltimore errors.
3. It was not a "bad pick." I bet this play at +136 and it closed at +125 making it a very good pick because it beat the closer by more than ten cents (although a losing one in the end because of the aforementioned errors).
4. Good plays like yesterday can lose just like bad plays such as my cardinals -1RL wager on Monday can win. We cannot control the players on the field. All we can control is getting a +ev price consistently over a large sample because if you do that enough you will be a long term winning player. Therefore this was not a "bad" pick, it was a good pick that lost. Had the orioles closed at +146, then it would have been a bad pick regardless of outcome.Comment -
MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/29/2012 Recap
1 - 2 = -3.12x
MLB 2012 Regular Season
121 - 114 - 15 = -0.29x
I historically hit close to 70% of my multiple unit plays but am a meager 1-4 on plays of 2x or more this season. That needs to change immediately. I have no regrets though as the orioles play was a good one, just a loser in the end because we wager on humans not robots and humans make mistakes such as three errors in one game. I thought the bigger surprise was Humber beating Shields because of one bad inning and the rays offense shutting down. Nothing we can do but continue to work hard and the results will come. Good luck on Wednesday.Last edited by Love The Action; 05-30-12, 09:14 AM.Comment -
LTA just curious should yesterday have been -3.12 instead of -3?Comment -
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no plays today chief??? i have a parlay on texas n the heat tonight!! will check back later to see if you got anything...GLComment -
LTA, what do you think of the under in the Reds/Pirates game? Votto is out and Burnett has pitched surprisingly well. Do we back the O's again tonight at +129?Comment -
MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/30/2012
Play #1
Yankees (+102) 1.5x (Locked)
As I mentioned before, I have the Yanks set at -105 giving us decent value at plus odds. I will back the better starting pitcher and the team looking to avoid the sweep by rolling with the Yankees for 1.5x. Good luck.Comment -
cards/braves got steamed a couple of minutes before your post, not playable at u8 -115 correct?
edit: nvm got a good number somewhereLast edited by BeardedTaco; 05-30-12, 05:27 PM.Comment -
Like the plays so far, let's get it. Curious to see if you'll be fading Chien Ming Wang, maybe by playing Marlins on the run line. Dodgers with Kershaw on the run line is also intriguing...Comment -
Nice.... Im pissed I didnt take it this morning at plus odds but didn't have the game fully capped at that time. I have this game set at 7.08 so 8 is playable at a decent price. You are correct -115 is unplayable but -110 is more palatable while anything less can be played without much debate. The Braves bats are struggling a tad, cards have a few bats missing, the wind is blowing in and we have a neutral ump. Good luck.Comment -
Probably laying off Marlins but I have been debating the dodgers all day. Everyone think that Kershaw will get rocked because of his history against brewers but I don't agree. My concern is the poor dodger bats which are starting to show their stripes a bit.
I would have played the tigers at +130 had i had the game capped this morning, although their lineup is pretty weak today.
What else?Comment -
I think I'm gonna roll with that Pirates under that I was debating earlier. Cueto should dominate, so as long as AJ doesn't implode I think it has a good chance at cashing. Heavy juice on the under in the Giants/D-backs. With both pitchers struggling, I kinda like the over as crazy it seems. Probably won't play it, but interesting.Comment -
Tigers odds are moving up curently +129 at pinnyComment -
Well i will play them for half a unit at +140 which i can get now cause you had a lean
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LTA do you have a write up on the RockiesComment -
Texas, a -235 favorite down 16-0 at home in the 3rd inning.
Does anyone have a handicapping profile that can predict that?Comment -
It is official....in my opinion, our losses on under bets are now outside the realm of statistical variance. Just pure brutality.Comment -
I should have played my lean on Pit/Cincy under and at least we would have cashed one of them. I agree to some extent, but you will see these periods throughout the season when overs or under get hot. Right now, in the last seven days worth of games, we have seen 60.4% of all games go over and in the last thirty days, over 52% of all games have gone over. covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/trends/league/season7.html
As a result, and as I mentioned the other day, the books will soon make an adjustment. Nonetheless, all this is cyclical. Some may say not to play unders when the overs are running hot, but I take the position that I just have to weather the storm and trust my model because of its proven long term success. As the advance numbers adjust for the offensive production, the calculations will adjust. You just never know when the next 7-0 day is around the corner, so you can't get rattled and start making radical moves like not playing any unders or fading normal plays or whatever.
With all that said, however, the amount of bullpen meltdowns is getting crazy. I have not done any specific research, but it seems like bullpens have been horrible. Perhaps someone can check out fangraphs to compare league-wide bullpen numbers from the last couple seasons to this season (especially if you can compare monthly splits). I would venture to say the league-wide bullpen numbers for tERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA are up while K%, K/9, K/BB, SwStr% and GB/FB are all down.Last edited by Love The Action; 05-30-12, 11:10 PM.Comment -
MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/31/2012
Play #1
Astros ML (+112) 1x (Locked)
May add to this in a bit. I have the Astros set at +102 and I am rolling with Houston for 1x. Good luck.Comment
