LTA's MLB Plays

[Atlfan12]

Well done LTA

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/24/2012

Play #1

Tigers -1RL (-125) 1x (Locked)

Masterson has not been himself with a continuing and worrisome drop in velocity that cannot be explained away by his four seam/two seam fastball adjustments. Verlander continues to be dominate (NoCoin agree?) and I'll lay the 25 cents that he gives us 7 innings of 1 or 2 run ball. The loss of Austin Jackson hurts an already struggling lineup, but they still have some big bats. Make no mistake, however, this is all about an elite Verlander versus a struggling Masterson. I am rolling with the Tigers on the -1RL for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Marlins -1RL (+100) 1x (Locked)

One of my biggest adjustments that I have made from last season has been a conscience effort to utilize the -1RL more often for -150ish favorites that I would otherwise skip because of the heavy juice. Never has that strategy been more evident with today's first two plays. However, when you have two of the best pitchers of this season like Verlander and Sanchez, you have to get creative and include the -1RL in your arsenal. In this case, Sanchez is having the best year of his career according to the numbers, not the least of which is a 1.4 WAR only a couple months into the season to go along with a K% of 25%, a GB/FB of 1.4% and a tERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA all at 3.0 or under. Sanchez has done all that with an average BABIP of .27 and despite a loss of velocity which tells me he might have finally "got it." Vogelsong has pedestrian numbers this season, plus a .24 BABIP which tells me his low ERA is about to regress. The Marlins bats are starting to heat up a little bit and I expect them to have a nice game against Vogelsong and I am rolling with Miami on the -1RL for 1x. Good luck.

[pacocn]

Play #2

Marlins -1RL (+100) 1x (Locked)

One of my biggest adjustments that I have made from last season has been a conscience effort to utilize the -1RL more often for -150ish favorites that I would otherwise skip because of the heavy juice. Never has that strategy been more evident with today's first two plays. However, when you have two of the best pitchers of this season like Verlander and Sanchez, you have to get creative and include the -1RL in your arsenal. In this case, Sanchez is having the best year of his career according to the numbers, not the least of which is a 1.4 WAR only a couple months into the season to go along with a K% of 25%, a GB/FB of 1.4% and a tERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA all at 3.0 or under. Sanchez has done all that with an average BABIP of .27 and despite a loss of velocity which tells me he might have finally "got it." Vogelsong has pedestrian numbers this season, plus a .24 BABIP which tells me his low ERA is about to regress. The Marlins bats are starting to heat up a little bit and I expect them to have a nice game against Vogelsong and I am rolling with Miami on the -1RL for 1x. Good luck.

Lta, it was very evident today as well you went 2-0 today using the -1rl keep it rolling.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/23/2012 Recap

7 - 0 = +7.69

MLB 2012 Regular Season

107 - 98 - 14 = +6.5x

We finally have a break through day, but it's always about business. We move onto Thursday. Good luck.

[Pick'nParlays]

Lta, it was very evident today as well you went 2-0 today using the -1rl keep it rolling.

does that make sense...

[fitguy67]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/1699456-read-before-you-place-your-next-1rl-wager.html

see the above if you currently have the -1Runline option at your book (and you have been automatically using it without thinking.. "because it's there")...you can get at least 2 more points of value on every -1RL you place from here on out (sometimes MUCH more)

I just placed LTA's two plays, which demonstrate the savings in technicolor...

DIY - OTS = GASP!
"Do it Yourself" price - "Off the Shelf" price= "Gains Available to the Sharp Player!"

specific example from a few minutes ago at Pinnacle, proving that the convenience of the handy -1RL is NOT free...once again, it pays to be a do-it-yourselfer (or at least do the calculation before you place -1RL'ers in the future so you have a choice...I've done this for my last 30 or 40 -1RL plays and i have NEVER found the advantage of "rolling my own" to be LESS than 2 points so far...so i never take them "as is"/always do them manually)

DET-1: (-123.30) - (-126) = + 2.70 ! [the -123.30 is the effective price of combining a +106 RL with a -154 ML vs. OTS -126]... 2.14% better price. gasp!

MIA-1: (-100.39) - (-103) = + 2.61 ! [the -100.39 is the effective price of combining a +156 RL with a -157 ML vs. OTS -103]...2.53% better price. gasp!
____________________________

Don't just be sharp choosing your -1RL bets...be sharp placing them too!

[SlickRick1382]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/23/2012 Recap

7 - 0 = +7.69

MLB 2012 Regular Season

107 - 98 - 14 = +6.5x

We finally have a break through day, but it's always about business. We move onto Thursday. Good luck.

Here's to hoping the mrs. piggy and the Texas dude infatuated with your life faded you today

[fitguy67]

I just placed another -1 RL (CHW)

Off the Shelf -1RL is -107

But "rolling my own" with +135 RL/ -146 ML...gives me effective odds of -104.68.

Meaning if you take the convenient option, you're unwittingly "donating" 2.32 points to the book...or laying 2.22% more chalk than necessary (107 vs 104.68 if you rolled your own)...when i first investigated this a few weeks ago, I couldn't believe that the "service fee" on this could be so high...I always just assumed the only difference would be in the last decimal due to rounding...no, this is something books do to skim money from the teeming masses of bettors who just "assume" such things.

_________________________

Anyhow, I prefer to think of it positvely...if you get in the "do it yourself" habit...you're at least 2 points ahead of the unwised-up masses who take the "pre-packaged" -1RL odds.

Consider yourself wised-up. 'Nuff Said.

[Redscot]

If I told you at the start of the season that on May 24th you could get Haren against the Mariners at -113 You'd have thunk I'd lost it.

There are some definite concerns about Haren though, his FB is down to 88.6 average, yet he is consistent in most of his career peripherals including a 10% swinging strike rate. The glaring culprit for his mediocre start is the rate of line drives he is giving up, which I think correlates to his uncharacteristic BB% it's highest since 2004. So the question is, is he walking more guys and falling behind in the count because of a slight loss of confidence in his FB which has lost 1.5 MPH. You fall behind in the count and you have to get more of the plate with your pitches = more line drives. Or is this just a case of a small sample size and maybe a couple of games where he got squeezed a little by the umps.

Perhaps the bigger concern in this game is the fact that the Angels are 2nd to last in ALL of MLB against LHP in wrc+, despite a heavy RH lineup......can this really continue?

Liking the -1R/L plays this year LTA, really opens up the card some more.

[pacocn]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/1699456-read-before-you-place-your-next-1rl-wager.html

see the above if you currently have the -1Runline option at your book (and you have been automatically using it without thinking.. "because it's there")...you can get at least 2 more points of value on every -1RL you place from here on out (sometimes MUCH more)

I just placed LTA's two plays, which demonstrate the savings in technicolor...

DIY - OTS = GASP!
"Do it Yourself" price - "Off the Shelf" price= "Gains Available to the Sharp Player!"

specific example from a few minutes ago at Pinnacle, proving that the convenience of the handy -1RL is NOT free...once again, it pays to be a do-it-yourselfer (or at least do the calculation before you place -1RL'ers in the future so you have a choice...I've done this for my last 30 or 40 -1RL plays and i have NEVER found the advantage of "rolling my own" to be LESS than 2 points so far...so i never take them "as is"/always do them manually)

DET-1: (-123.30) - (-126) = + 2.70 ! [the -123.30 is the effective price of combining a +106 RL with a -154 ML vs. OTS -126]... 2.14% better price. gasp!

MIA-1: (-100.39) - (-103) = + 2.61 ! [the -100.39 is the effective price of combining a +156 RL with a -157 ML vs. OTS -103]...2.53% better price. gasp!
____________________________

Don't just be sharp choosing your -1RL bets...be sharp placing them too!

Fit,
as usual thanks for the very valuable information. I will be rolling my own from here on out.

[Redscot]

Fit,
as usual thanks for the very valuable information. I will be rolling my own from here on out.

Agreed Fitguy, this is a definite money saver. Many thanks.

[Love The Action]

If I told you at the start of the season that on May 24th you could get Haren against the Mariners at -113 You'd have thunk I'd lost it.

There are some definite concerns about Haren though, his FB is down to 88.6 average, yet he is consistent in most of his career peripherals including a 10% swinging strike rate. The glaring culprit for his mediocre start is the rate of line drives he is giving up, which I think correlates to his uncharacteristic BB% it's highest since 2004. So the question is, is he walking more guys and falling behind in the count because of a slight loss of confidence in his FB which has lost 1.5 MPH. You fall behind in the count and you have to get more of the plate with your pitches = more line drives. Or is this just a case of a small sample size and maybe a couple of games where he got squeezed a little by the umps.

Perhaps the bigger concern in this game is the fact that the Angels are 2nd to last in ALL of MLB against LHP in wrc+, despite a heavy RH lineup......can this really continue?

Liking the -1R/L plays this year LTA, really opens up the card some more.

I know right....however, I think this a prime spot for the under rather than the side. I have this game set at 5.2 and even though Haren has not been himself, his numbers remain well above average as you note. Vargas has had a solid if unspectacular start to the season and the Angels' deficiencies against lefties that you note are too profound to ignore. The angels bats will heat up against lefties, but I don't expect that to happen tonight. I have not pulled the trigger yet because my local is hanging -115 even though Pinnh is at -108. I suspect my other local that follows legends will have a better price when they open MLB up in a few minutes. GL

[jimmyg2727]

Great day LTA !! Only tailed a couple , wish I tailed all 7. Thanks for posting

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/24/2012

Play #1

Tigers -1RL (-125) 1x (Locked)

Masterson has not been himself with a continuing and worrisome drop in velocity that cannot be explained away by his four seam/two seam fastball adjustments. Verlander continues to be dominate (NoCoin agree?) and I'll lay the 25 cents that he gives us 7 innings of 1 or 2 run ball. The loss of Austin Jackson hurts an already struggling lineup, but they still have some big bats. Make no mistake, however, this is all about an elite Verlander versus a struggling Masterson. I am rolling with the Tigers on the -1RL for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Marlins -1RL (+100) 1x (Locked)

One of my biggest adjustments that I have made from last season has been a conscience effort to utilize the -1RL more often for -150ish favorites that I would otherwise skip because of the heavy juice. Never has that strategy been more evident with today's first two plays. However, when you have two of the best pitchers of this season like Verlander and Sanchez, you have to get creative and include the -1RL in your arsenal. In this case, Sanchez is having the best year of his career according to the numbers, not the least of which is a 1.4 WAR only a couple months into the season to go along with a K% of 25%, a GB/FB of 1.4% and a tERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA all at 3.0 or under. Sanchez has done all that with an average BABIP of .27 and despite a loss of velocity which tells me he might have finally "got it." Vogelsong has pedestrian numbers this season, plus a .24 BABIP which tells me his low ERA is about to regress. The Marlins bats are starting to heat up a little bit and I expect them to have a nice game against Vogelsong and I am rolling with Miami on the -1RL for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Angels/Mariners under (6.5) 1x (Locked)

Some of my thoughts in this game can be found above. I have this game set at 5.2 and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[No coincidences]

If I told you at the start of the season that on May 24th you could get Haren against the Mariners at -113 You'd have thunk I'd lost it.

There are some definite concerns about Haren though, his FB is down to 88.6 average, yet he is consistent in most of his career peripherals including a 10% swinging strike rate. The glaring culprit for his mediocre start is the rate of line drives he is giving up, which I think correlates to his uncharacteristic BB% it's highest since 2004. So the question is, is he walking more guys and falling behind in the count because of a slight loss of confidence in his FB which has lost 1.5 MPH. You fall behind in the count and you have to get more of the plate with your pitches = more line drives. Or is this just a case of a small sample size and maybe a couple of games where he got squeezed a little by the umps.

Perhaps the bigger concern in this game is the fact that the Angels are 2nd to last in ALL of MLB against LHP in wrc+, despite a heavy RH lineup......can this really continue?

Liking the -1R/L plays this year LTA, really opens up the card some more.

The Angels continue to baffle me. This offense should not be struggling; they have enough speed and power to be productive. Weird case of the whole being less than the sum of its parts so far.

LTA, good luck with the Tigers. Verlander is the guy to back as a streak buster, but he's been pretty mediocre through the years vs. Cleveland and that price is way too steep for me given the Tigers' current form.

[Redscot]

The Angels continue to baffle me. This offense should not be struggling; they have enough speed and power to be productive. Weird case of the whole being less than the sum of its parts so far.

LTA, good luck with the Tigers. Verlander is the guy to back as a streak buster, but he's been pretty mediocre through the years vs. Cleveland and that price is way too steep for me given the Tigers' current form.

Yup, the reverse of synergy. As for Verlander if you delve into the numbers vs. Cleveland a little deeper you will see that most of that trouble came early in his career. Last 3 years he is 9-1 vs. Cleveland over 84 innings with a 2.89 era (take the era for what it's worth).

[CHAZ]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/23/2012 Recap

7 - 0 = +7.69

Damn LTA! $$$

[bleedtoledo]

Think the twins & white sox will combine for at least ten runs tonight??

Maybe. With the twins' MLB virgin "pitching" for the first time. I'm gonna play Chi Sox RL

[CappinTerp]

Think the twins & white sox will combine for at least ten runs tonight??

Maybe. With the twins' MLB virgin "pitching" for the first time. I'm gonna play Chi Sox RL

I know you think that I can't cap baseball and that's OK. But from my side with the MLB virgin "pitching" it's an advantage to the pitcher and thus his team....................I'am on Minn.also MINN. 16-4 last 20 games on the road vs CWS.........................GL

[CappinTerp]

My bad they are 14-6 the last 20.

[bmanquen45]

My Sportsbook wont let me play -1 RL. What sportsbook do you use LTA? Looking for a sportsbook that will allow me to play -1RL.

[No coincidences]

Yup, the reverse of synergy. As for Verlander if you delve into the numbers vs. Cleveland a little deeper you will see that most of that trouble came early in his career. Last 3 years he is 9-1 vs. Cleveland over 84 innings with a 2.89 era (take the era for what it's worth).

Verlander wasn't the problem today. The rest of the team is just gutless. They don't do any of the little things right.

[bleedtoledo]

My bad they are 14-6 the last 20.

I was half-joking with u before. I don't know you or your capping skillz. I don't go in any other threads because I've deemed LTA "smartest guy in the room." I'm playing Chi Sox RL in hopes the stage is too big for devries, if nothing else.

[CHAZ]

My Sportsbook wont let me play -1 RL. What sportsbook do you use LTA? Looking for a sportsbook that will allow me to play -1RL.

Here you go...

To create a -1RL, you need to make two separate bets..all you need to do is bet TO WIN the same amount on the ML as you bet TO WIN on the RL.

For example, tonight I created the -1RL on my toronto blue jays bet. The bluejays ML was -200, and their RL was +100. So pretend we want to win $200 on the -1rl (meaning if our team wins by 1, we push):

Bet $100 to win $100 on the Bluejays RL (meaning they need to win by 2+ to win)

Bet $200 to win $100 on the Bluejays ML (meaning they need to just win by 1+ to win this bet)

Together, we are risking $300 to win $200, therefore making the -1RL a -150 bet. If the bluejays win by 1, we win the ml bet (win $100), but lose the RL bet (lose $100).. so therefore its a push. If the bluejays win by 2+, we win both bets and win $200. If the Bluejays straight up lose (like they did ), we lose $300.

Does this make sense?

[CappinTerp]

I was half-joking with u before. I don't know you or your capping skillz. I don't go in any other threads because I've deemed LTA "smartest guy in the room." I'm playing Chi Sox RL in hopes the stage is too big for devries, if nothing else.

I'am cool with that I wish you good luck with the baseball............it's a great game.!

[bmanquen45]

Thanks a lot that helped me tons!!!

[fitguy67]

My Sportsbook wont let me play -1 RL. What sportsbook do you use LTA? Looking for a sportsbook that will allow me to play -1RL.

See post #7601 and 7603 (above on this very page) to understand that you are better off NOT using the -1RL's that are "offered", unless you want to donate at least 2 points everytime you use it. Learn how to "roll your own"...

___________________

How to "roll your own" -1RL's

**if you're in american-style mode (ie. "to win" for faves/"to risk" for dogs)...this website-calculator works just fine..(thanks to dlunc for linking us to it on his "My Business" thread)

http://sportsobjective.com/wordpress/?page_id=3167

**but if instead you want to control the overall "to risk" amount of the bet follow this procedure...explained here with the ML=-168/RL=+121 example...assuming your aiming at a risking exactly $100

*divide your desired total risk, say $100, by the decimal-format ML-odds [here 1.595=(-100/-168)+1]... this tells us how much to bet on the ML...[here it's $62.70=100/1.595]
*then calculate the win on that ML-bet...here it's $37.31=62.70*(1.595-1)...the bracketed term is simply the 1.595 payout per $ less the stake
*voila!...the return on your ML bet [here it's $37.31] is the amount to bet on the RL...
_______________________

In either case, the essential point is that, in the event your team wins by 1 run, the amount won on the ML bet "finances" (give or take $0.01) the loss on the RL bet...leading to a push (which registers as a net zero +/- 0.01 result). So, before you place any "roll your own" set of two bets...make sure that the ML win you're aiming at is within 1-cent of the risked amount on your RL bet...

[Donkeys2012]

This fuckin Rooster sucker Vargas. Gives Pujols a 2 run cookie that I think it still flying and nearing Vancouver presently.

[Kurtz]

In their last 19 home games, Marlins games have gone over the posted total 15-3-1. Marlins Park not quite as "pitcher friendly" as people thought perhaps?

[figue]

I just placed another -1 RL (CHW)

Off the Shelf -1RL is -107

But "rolling my own" with +135 RL/ -146 ML...gives me effective odds of -104.68.

Meaning if you take the convenient option, you're unwittingly "donating" 2.32 points to the book...or laying 2.22% more chalk than necessary (107 vs 104.68 if you rolled your own)...when i first investigated this a few weeks ago, I couldn't believe that the "service fee" on this could be so high...I always just assumed the only difference would be in the last decimal due to rounding...no, this is something books do to skim money from the teeming masses of bettors who just "assume" such things.

_________________________

Anyhow, I prefer to think of it positvely...if you get in the "do it yourself" habit...you're at least 2 points ahead of the unwised-up masses who take the "pre-packaged" -1RL odds.

Consider yourself wised-up. 'Nuff Said.

[pacocn]

Lta, Red i opened a thread please post your pick of the day for 5/25
lets win some money.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/24/2012 Recap

1 - 2 = -1.25x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

108 - 100 - 14 = +5.25x

The Tigers have some serious issues on offense. That is a game we should have cashed. However, we should also note how well Masterson is pitching at home versus the road. His h/a splits are striking and he had similar numbers in 2011 indicating this could be something worth following. Back to the grind. Good luck.

[Redscot]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/24/2012 Recap

1 - 2 = -1.25x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

108 - 100 - 14 = +5.25x

The Tigers have some serious issues on offense. That is a game we should have cashed. However, we should also note how well Masterson is pitching at home versus the road. His h/a splits are striking and he had similar numbers in 2011 indicating this could be something worth following. Back to the grind. Good luck.

No shiznit eh. What is up with los Tigeres?! Masterson had some good velocity yesterday, and his home splits are something to keep an eye on. That being said he left a lot of balls over the middle of the plate, Detroit just couldn't square'em up. Another good start from him and he may get back in my good graces , I'm sure that is really important to him

[Redscot]

Gonna be out on the farm all day today but having a quick early look at the card, I think cases could be made for the under in Pitt, Mia. and NY. Don't know umps and haven't looked at the weather or other underlying factors. As for sides I think the pitcher discrepancy in St Louis is intriguing (Phillie's have been generating offense of late). Also would consider the Yanks on the -1 R/L. I am NOT sold on Morrow today who seems to be getting a lot of love around the forum. I ended up cashing a -1 R/L as well as your under on the Angels last night, and I think they are inexpensive again today. Gonna be around for another half hour or so LTA, if anything mentioned above jumps out at you good or bad let me have it.

[guil0000]

Gonna be out on the farm all day today but having a quick early look at the card, I think cases could be made for the under in Pitt, Mia. and NY. Don't know umps and haven't looked at the weather or other underlying factors. As for sides I think the pitcher discrepancy in St Louis is intriguing (Phillie's have been generating offense of late). Also would consider the Yanks on the -1 R/L. I am NOT sold on Morrow today who seems to be getting a lot of love around the forum. I ended up cashing a -1 R/L as well as your under on the Angels last night, and I think they are inexpensive again today. Gonna be around for another half hour or so LTA, if anything mentioned above jumps out at you good or bad let me have it.

Nice post Red, I'm on the Phillies also, and agree with you on Morrow. GL Today gents!