LTA's MLB Plays

[Catchn_Picks]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/17/2012 Recap

1 - 3 - 1 = -1.51x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

88 - 86 - 12 = -0.63x

This is the first time I have been in the red in MLB at any point since I decided to do this full time two seasons ago. Strangely, I am at peace with this cold streak. Not even frustrated. Instead, I am excited to get to tomorrow's game to start the turn around. I will stay aggressive and stick to my process. Last year, I hit a hot streak during inter-league. I expect the same this season. Good luck.

GL LTA...thanks for your continued effort to fight our way out of this temporary variance.

Inter-league play!!!!!

[IXL]

great pick on the wsox ml!!! i parlayed them in two of my plays and cashed. Thanks LTA!!!

[BigBoi]

I like Baltimore tomorrow. Thoughts?

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/18/2012

Play #1

Cardinals (-115) 2x (Locked)

I am rolling with another 2x play on the Cardinals. We faded a lefty in the first 2x on the Cards and cashed over MBaum and we are going to fade another lefty in Lilly. Even though he has not pitched well, his stats pale in comparison to Lynn who has the better K%, GB/FB, SwStr%, FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA by a large margin. When you consider that the Cards are the best left handed hitting lineup in the league and you can see why this play takes shape. Without Kemp, I just don't see the Dodgers being able to keep up with the Cards in this game. I have the Cardinals set at -127 giving us 12 cents of value. I am rolling with the Cardinals for 2x. Good luck.

[taxe91]

looking forward to your thoughts on the interleague matchups LTA. interesting time of year always

[rockaflocka]

Masterson -106 v Zambrano ?

[Redscot]

Let's get this train rolling in the right direction, looking forward to inter league action.

Niese +150 against Romero......hmmmmm. Having a looksie at the card now. Like the Cards play .

[pacocn]

Lta, bol today on all your plays,
red that Niese play has me pretty excited
at plus 150, but i haven't had the cajones to
pull the trigger yet.

[Love The Action]

Let's get this train rolling in the right direction, looking forward to inter league action.

Niese +150 against Romero......hmmmmm. Having a looksie at the card now. Like the Cards play .

I like to back the Mets v right handers more than lefties. Encarnacion is on fire right now. Lawrie is out, but not too sure about your mets today. Today's card has some peculiar matchups...need to put in extra work on this one. GL

[pacocn]

I like Baltimore tomorrow. Thoughts?

Whats your angle?

[pacocn]

I like to back the Mets v right handers more than lefties. Encarnacion is on fire right now. Lawrie is out, but not too sure about your mets today. Today's card has some peculiar matchups...need to put in extra work on this one. GL

Very pecuiliar with all the interleague games, and interesting pitching match ups. I realy like Oakland today at -104, they have owned Zito in the past, but Oak has a lot of injuries.

[pacocn]

Red, it is official i am rolling with Niese +150, Mets
are hitting 23 pts. higher against lefties as oppossed to
righties this season interestingly enough, Romero is not your
average lefty, but i like it. I grew the cajones.

[taxe91]

Very pecuiliar with all the interleague games, and interesting pitching match ups. I realy like Oakland today at -104, they have owned Zito in the past, but Oak has a lot of injuries.

looks like a good spot for an under

[Love The Action]

Red, it is official i am rolling with Niese +150, Mets
are hitting 23 pts. higher against lefties as oppossed to
righties this season interestingly enough, Romero is not your
average lefty, but i like it. I grew the cajones.

Pac...where you getting your numbers? That is not factually accurate. In general, the Mets are better hitting team against righties than lefties. If you are looking at just batting average, they are hitting .261 against lefties and .269 against righties. However, batting average does not tell the whole story. If you look at OPS, the Mets are hitting .706 against lefties and .732 against righties. If you look at BABIP, the Mets are #1 against righties at .335 and only .326 against lefties. If you look at wRC+, you see the Mets are 104 against righties and only 96 against lefties. I'm assuming none of this changes your opinion, but you might want to change where you get stats because the Mets are not a better hitting team against lefties and are surely not hitting 23 points higher against lefties in any category. Good luck buddy, I hope you cash.

[EXhoosier10]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/18/2012

Play #1

Cardinals (-115) 2x (Locked)

I am rolling with another 2x play on the Cardinals. We faded a lefty in the first 2x on the Cards and cashed over MBaum and we are going to fade another lefty in Lilly. Even though he has not pitched well, his stats pale in comparison to Lynn who has the better K%, GB/FB, SwStr%, FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA by a large margin. When you consider that the Cards are the best left handed hitting lineup in the league and you can see why this play takes shape. Without Kemp, I just don't see the Dodgers being able to keep up with the Cards in this game. I have the Cardinals set at -127 giving us 12 cents of value. I am rolling with the Cardinals for 2x. Good luck.

I'm with ya on this one. Booked it last night when it came out @ -117 at heritage.

I'm not sure I understand why this line is set here though. Lynn is the better pitcher, STL is the best hitting team in the NL, Kemp is out, STL was already on the west coast, bullpens are fresh for both teams. I'm playing this for 2u as well, but it seems too easy. Does the public really pay that much attention to ERA and team record?

[Love The Action]

I'm with ya on this one. Booked it last night when it came out @ -117 at heritage.

I'm not sure I understand why this line is set here though. Lynn is the better pitcher, STL is the best hitting team in the NL, Kemp is out, STL was already on the west coast, bullpens are fresh for both teams. I'm playing this for 2u as well, but it seems too easy. Does the public really pay that much attention to ERA and team record?

The uninformed or casual "bettor" (i.e. the "public") loves ERA and WHIP when looking at a pitcher. If you compare those two stats, Lilly and Lynn are not that far off. Plus, Lilly has pitched very well against the redbirds in the past which may also endear that team to the uninformed who simply read the ESPN summaries before they lock and load. I think the Dodgers performance after losing Kemp, in which they continue to win has some convinced that they can continue to win without Kemp. While that might have been true against a team like the Padres, the Dodgers cannot hang with an elite team like the Cardinals without their best player. All in all, Lilly is having a great year according to the conventional stats. However, when you dig deeper into the advanced numbers, you see Lynn has a decided advantage. According to Sports Insights, the betting percentages at this point are pretty even 54% for the Cards and 46% for the Dodgers. I think sharp money will continue to push the Cards price up to the -120's. Good luck.

[LoneStar]

Very pecuiliar with all the interleague games, and interesting pitching match ups. I realy like Oakland today at -104, they have owned Zito in the past, but Oak has a lot of injuries.

07-10 stats here - not gonna predict present forum for Zito; his off to his best start. He hasn't giving-up more then 3 runs in his last 7 starts. He's team has won 10 straight off of Oakland at home. Despite three straight quality starts, Parker's command is faltering, having walked nine batters over his last two outings. Not to mention the A's have averaged 1.8 runs during their nine-game skid at AT&T Park. I'm backing the $126 Million contract Zito, looking for him to pay dividends in this spot.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/18/2012

Play #1

Cardinals ML (-115) 2x (Locked)

I am rolling with another 2x play on the Cardinals. We faded a lefty in the first 2x on the Cards and cashed over MBaum and we are going to fade another lefty in Lilly. Even though he has not pitched well, his stats pale in comparison to Lynn who has the better K%, GB/FB, SwStr%, FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA by a large margin. When you consider that the Cards are the best left handed hitting lineup in the league and you can see why this play takes shape. Without Kemp, I just don't see the Dodgers being able to keep up with the Cards in this game. I have the Cardinals set at -127 giving us 12 cents of value. I am rolling with the Cardinals for 2x. Good luck.

Play #2

Reds ML (+129) 1x (Locked)

I'm not in the business of fading the bombers, especially when they have lost three games in a row (although that could indicate they are in a funk, it could also indicate they are about to explode). However, in this game, you have a decided starting pitching advantage with Arroyo against Pettite. Arroyo is having a resurgent year with a WAR already at .9 and a FIP, xFIP and SIERA all between 3.3 and 3.6. When you consider he has been relatively "unlucky" with a .333 BABIP and those numbers become a bit more impressive. On offense, the Reds are always one of the better hitting teams against lefties and that is no different this season where they rank top 8 in most statistically significant advanced categories. I should have followed my lean and faded Pettite in his first start and I don't want to regret it by not fading him in this start. When you consider that Arroyo has actually fared reasonably well against this Yanks lineup over 126 at bats by limiting them to a .250 BAA and .700ish OPS and I think the Reds become even more interesting. The "public" will be pounding the Yanks as usual which gives us a great price here and nice value. I have the Reds set at +113 and we're getting +129, so that is too much value to pass up and I am rolling with the Reds for 1x. Good luck.

[Redscot]

Red, it is official i am rolling with Niese +150, Mets
are hitting 23 pts. higher against lefties as oppossed to
righties this season interestingly enough, Romero is not your
average lefty, but i like it. I grew the cajones.

Good luck Paco, I also agree with LTA's assessment of the Mets vs. LHP and RHP, I particularly put weight in the wrc+. Stands to reason, once you get past Wright their next 3 biggest threats are LHB's, Murphy, Duda, and Davis.

Not sure if I will be on this one, but I think there is good value getting the equal if not (dare I say it) better pitcher at the moment at such + odds.

[Redscot]

Play #2

Reds ML (+129) 1x (Locked)

I'm not in the business of fading the bombers, especially when they have lost three games in a row (although that could indicate they are in a funk, it could also indicate they are about to explode). However, in this game, you have a decided starting pitching advantage with Arroyo against Pettite. Arroyo is having a resurgent year with a WAR already at .9 and a FIP, xFIP and SIERA all between 3.3 and 3.6. When you consider he has been relatively "unlucky" with a .333 BABIP and those numbers become a bit more impressive. On offense, the Reds are always one of the better hitting teams against lefties and that is no different this season where they rank top 8 in most statistically significant advanced categories. I should have followed my lean and faded Pettite in his first start and I don't want to regret it by not fading him in this start. When you consider that Arroyo has actually fared reasonably well against this Yanks lineup over 126 at bats by limiting them to a .250 BAA and .700ish OPS and I think the Reds become even more interesting. The "public" will be pounding the Yanks as usual which gives us a great price here and nice value. I have the Reds set at +113 and we're getting +129, so that is too much value to pass up and I am rolling with the Reds for 1x. Good luck.

I was looking hard at this one too, gonna ride along and tail now that I see you on it. My only concern is Arroyo is susceptible to the long ball, and RHP's in Yankee stadium it does not take much to go yard.

[EXhoosier10]

Play #2

Reds ML (+129) 1x (Locked)

I'm leaning this play as well. For anyone considering tailing, Aroldis is most likely unavailable today after 50 pitches the last two days and Ondrusek (7th inning guy) is probably unavailable as well after 35 pitches and 5 ER yesterday. Ignoring the fact that Dusty still might pitch both of these guys in a close game, first five might be where the value is rather than worrying about the reds bullpen.

[taxe91]

I was looking hard at this one too, gonna ride along and tail now that I see you on it. My only concern is Arroyo is susceptible to the long ball, and RHP's in Yankee stadium it does not take much to go yard.

truth. that right field wall is just a short popup away

[No coincidences]

I was looking hard at this one too, gonna ride along and tail now that I see you on it. My only concern is Arroyo is susceptible to the long ball, and RHP's in Yankee stadium it does not take much to go yard.

Yep. I considered the Reds too, but a fly ball pitcher with a short porch scared me off.

[taxe91]

Yep. I considered the Reds too, but a fly ball pitcher with a short porch scared me off.

youre not the only one. thats the reason the sox traded him away from fenway

[No coincidences]

Reds +139 now.

[Love The Action]

Reds +139 now.

Should have waited, but still like the play....just not a good long term price.

[Love The Action]

Holy crap....Reds up to +150..... What a blunder not waiting. I definitely thought there would be more Reds money. I made a mistake on that, but maybe we'll get lucky. Pinny got hit as well considering they opened at +117. Note the market reaction in this type of situation though, because if you don't learn from your mistakes you are doomed to repeat them.

[jj108]

LTA what are your thoughts on the white sox/cubs game, the cubs opened up at -145 now down to -130, thinking humber and the sox can pull this one off?

[Madison]

I would appreciate your thoughts regarding o/u in interleague play. The basic angle being (lean under) as this may be the first time a lot of these lineups have seen these pitchers. Thoughts?

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/18/2012

Play #1

Cardinals ML (-115) 2x (Locked)

I am rolling with another 2x play on the Cardinals. We faded a lefty in the first 2x on the Cards and cashed over MBaum and we are going to fade another lefty in Lilly. Even though he has not pitched well, his stats pale in comparison to Lynn who has the better K%, GB/FB, SwStr%, FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA by a large margin. When you consider that the Cards are the best left handed hitting lineup in the league and you can see why this play takes shape. Without Kemp, I just don't see the Dodgers being able to keep up with the Cards in this game. I have the Cardinals set at -127 giving us 12 cents of value. I am rolling with the Cardinals for 2x. Good luck.

Play #2

Reds ML (+129) 1x (Locked)

I'm not in the business of fading the bombers, especially when they have lost three games in a row (although that could indicate they are in a funk, it could also indicate they are about to explode). However, in this game, you have a decided starting pitching advantage with Arroyo against Pettite. Arroyo is having a resurgent year with a WAR already at .9 and a FIP, xFIP and SIERA all between 3.3 and 3.6. When you consider he has been relatively "unlucky" with a .333 BABIP and those numbers become a bit more impressive. On offense, the Reds are always one of the better hitting teams against lefties and that is no different this season where they rank top 8 in most statistically significant advanced categories. I should have followed my lean and faded Pettite in his first start and I don't want to regret it by not fading him in this start. When you consider that Arroyo has actually fared reasonably well against this Yanks lineup over 126 at bats by limiting them to a .250 BAA and .700ish OPS and I think the Reds become even more interesting. The "public" will be pounding the Yanks as usual which gives us a great price here and nice value. I have the Reds set at +113 and we're getting +129, so that is too much value to pass up and I am rolling with the Reds for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Mets ML (+140) 1x (Locked)

I should have locked this play in at +150 when we were discussing it earlier, but it was not until I was able to look more in-depth that this became a play. There has always been value on the Mets as I have them set at +131, however, my concern was the lefty/righty advantage that Romero would have considering the Mets are generally better against righties. Nevertheless, once I looked more closely at Romero, it became clear that his numbers are poor when facing lefties. This means that Romero has a reverse platoon split that is one of the worst in the league when you consider his FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA are on average a full point worse against lefties than righties. That's not all as we also see he strikes out lefties less and throws more balls to them as well. As far as Niese, he has much better advanced numbers than Romero and will not have to face Lawrie. All in all, I missed out on ten cents in value by waiting but I still expect this to close in the low +130's and we are still getting a good price at +140 and I am rolling with the Mets for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

I would appreciate your thoughts regarding o/u in interleague play. The basic angle being (lean under) as this may be the first time a lot of these lineups have seen these pitchers. Thoughts?

I can't really make such a general statement because it all depends on the individual pitcher/hitter matchups, but I will say the unfamiliarity "angle" generally favors the pitcher. GL

[JM92]

LTA you sure you didn't switch the odds on the last two plays posted? My book has the reds @ +140 and the mets @ + 125.

[Redscot]

LTA you sure you didn't switch the odds on the last two plays posted? My book has the reds @ +140 and the mets @ + 125.

Dem some bad lines JM. +158 and +138 respectively at 5dimes right now.

[BeardedTaco]

LTA you sure you didn't switch the odds on the last two plays posted? My book has the reds @ +140 and the mets @ + 125.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/18/2012

Play #1

Cardinals ML (-115) 2x (Locked)

I am rolling with another 2x play on the Cardinals. We faded a lefty in the first 2x on the Cards and cashed over MBaum and we are going to fade another lefty in Lilly. Even though he has not pitched well, his stats pale in comparison to Lynn who has the better K%, GB/FB, SwStr%, FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA by a large margin. When you consider that the Cards are the best left handed hitting lineup in the league and you can see why this play takes shape. Without Kemp, I just don't see the Dodgers being able to keep up with the Cards in this game. I have the Cardinals set at -127 giving us 12 cents of value. I am rolling with the Cardinals for 2x. Good luck.

Play #2

Reds ML (+129) 1x (Locked)

I'm not in the business of fading the bombers, especially when they have lost three games in a row (although that could indicate they are in a funk, it could also indicate they are about to explode). However, in this game, you have a decided starting pitching advantage with Arroyo against Pettite. Arroyo is having a resurgent year with a WAR already at .9 and a FIP, xFIP and SIERA all between 3.3 and 3.6. When you consider he has been relatively "unlucky" with a .333 BABIP and those numbers become a bit more impressive. On offense, the Reds are always one of the better hitting teams against lefties and that is no different this season where they rank top 8 in most statistically significant advanced categories. I should have followed my lean and faded Pettite in his first start and I don't want to regret it by not fading him in this start. When you consider that Arroyo has actually fared reasonably well against this Yanks lineup over 126 at bats by limiting them to a .250 BAA and .700ish OPS and I think the Reds become even more interesting. The "public" will be pounding the Yanks as usual which gives us a great price here and nice value. I have the Reds set at +113 and we're getting +129, so that is too much value to pass up and I am rolling with the Reds for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Mets ML (+140) 1x (Locked)

I should have locked this play in at +150 when we were discussing it earlier, but it was not until I was able to look more in-depth that this became a play. There has always been value on the Mets as I have them set at +131, however, my concern was the lefty/righty advantage that Romero would have considering the Mets are generally better against righties. Nevertheless, once I looked more closely at Romero, it became clear that his numbers are poor when facing lefties. This means that Romero has a reverse platoon split that is one of the worst in the league when you consider his FIP, xFIP, tERA and SIERA are on average a full point worse against lefties than righties. That's not all as we also see he strikes out lefties less and throws more balls to them as well. As far as Niese, he has much better advanced numbers than Romero and will not have to face Lawrie. All in all, I missed out on ten cents in value by waiting but I still expect this to close in the low +130's and we are still getting a good price at +140 and I am rolling with the Mets for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Braves/Devil Rays under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)

I expect the price on the under to get more expensive as the day progresses so I'm jumping on it now. We have two very solid SP's who can strike you out and get crucial ground ball outs in a pitchers park with who I am hoping is Layne behind the plate. Both offenses are very good but with limited history with these pitchers that highlights the pitchers' success. I have this game set at 6.02 and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.