LTA's MLB Plays

[Donnie Brasco]

Marcum is toast!

[MasterEOD]

Great JOB LTA!!! This saved the day for me on the Cards tonight. World Series on the way...Would love to make a great run here and finish strong and up....look forward to your insight

[Love The Action]

Great JOB LTA!!! This saved the day for me on the Cards tonight. World Series on the way...Would love to make a great run here and finish strong and up....look forward to your insight

[Love The Action]

MLB Final Numbers for Regular Season 2011

418 - 378 = +38.03x

MLB 2011 Playoff Recap 10/16/11

1 - 0 = +1.17x

MLB 2011 Playoffs

14 - 9 = +5.182x

Let's close the season on a high note and have a highly profitable world series....good luck!

[pacocn]

Lta great job

[815Sox]

Thanks for the pick last night as always. I think the Rangers end up winning the whole thing. However, they do not have home field advantage this year. When will the MLB stop doing that by the way? Its so dumb.

[Love The Action]

Anyone have early ump info for wednesday? Thanks!

[Love The Action]

Thanks for the pick last night as always. I think the Rangers end up winning the whole thing. However, they do not have home field advantage this year. When will the MLB stop doing that by the way? Its so dumb.

Agreed..they should not award home field according to the allstar winner...that is ridiculous..

[Dexter]

i went with the redbirds at +150 for a nickel in the series. way too much value. check out my short writeup.

[sipdawg7]

Any thoughts on this World Series prop?

Total number of games to go into extra innings
Games in extra innings...Over 1.5 (+120)
Games in extra innings...Under 1.5 (-150)

[Love The Action]

Any thoughts on this World Series prop?

Total number of games to go into extra innings
Games in extra innings...Over 1.5 (+120)
Games in extra innings...Under 1.5 (-150)

Sorry bud...I usually don't get involved in props such as those because I think they are too hard to pinpoint an edge. I suppose their is some math wiz out there who could figure out some formula based on the total number of times this year each team has gone into extra innings and compare that to the league average to see if there is value in one of the numbers you posted, but I don't have time to investigate it.

What were you thinking? If I had to guess, I would say under 1.5 but I have no idea.

Good luck if you play one of those

[sipdawg7]

yeah at first glance i was thinking under. there would have to be 2 extra inning games out of the 4, 5, 6, or 7 games that are played to lose the bet.

All I could find is from a couple years ago...In 2008, 210 games (of 2428) went into extra innings, or 8.65%. Plus two in the postseason. And it was similar to 2007.

Any thoughts on the series price???

[GGALLERT]

Texas Rangers

[Love The Action]

yeah at first glance i was thinking under. there would have to be 2 extra inning games out of the 4, 5, 6, or 7 games that are played to lose the bet.

All I could find is from a couple years ago...In 2008, 210 games (of 2428) went into extra innings, or 8.65%. Plus two in the postseason. And it was similar to 2007.

Any thoughts on the series price???

Going to contemplate a series play today. Might take the cards +160 because I like the cards to win the first game, which will allow me to take the rangers in the series at plus money and guaranty a profit. It all comes down to game 1, but I need to put some work into that one. Good luck.

[Trivial]

Thanks LTA. After my own pick in NFL going belly up
last night, I am waiting for your MLB pick before making mine. You are truly a gentleman.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/19/11

Play #1

Cardinals ML (-117) 1x (Locked)

I dont have much time for a writeup, so I will just give you the basics. I dont think this price gets any better, so I'm locking it now. I set the Cardinals as -129 favorites and will jump on the value of the home team in this spot. This game is played under NL rules, so you take a bat out of the rangers lineup which is an advantage for the cardinals. Other than the day he pitched on three days rest Carp has been sharper than Wilson throughout the playoffs. In addition, Wilson will be facing a right handed lineup and his platoon splits show he struggled more against righties than lefties. On the other side, Carp will also be facing mostly righties against texas (other than hamilton and murphy) and we all know Carp fares very well against righties. Both offenses are formidable and both bullpens solid, so with the Cards playing at home with the better pitcher at a cheap price, I am rolling with the Cardinals for 1x. Good luck.

[Adm. Cowpollock]

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/19/11

Play #1

Cardinals ML (-117) 1x (Locked)

I dont have much time for a writeup, so I will just give you the basics. I dont think this price gets any better, so I'm locking it now. I set the Cardinals as -129 favorites and will jump on the value of the home team in this spot. This game is played under NL rules, so you take a bat out of the rangers lineup which is an advantage for the cardinals. Other than the day he pitched on three days rest Carp has been sharper than Wilson throughout the playoffs. In addition, Wilson will be facing a right handed lineup and his platoon splits show he struggled more against righties than lefties. On the other side, Carp will also be facing mostly righties against texas (other than hamilton and murphy) and we all know Carp fares very well against righties. Both offenses are formidable and both bullpens solid, so with the Cards playing at home with the better pitcher at a cheap price, I am rolling with the Cardinals for 1x. Good luck.

Like this call LTA and in -118. The lines are out for Game 2 at 5d, any early thoughts?

Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals - World Series - Game #2
Thu 10/20 953 Texas Rangers C Lewis - R +1½ -200 -105 Listed o8 -115
8:05PM 954 St. Louis Cardinals J Garcia - L -1½ +170 -115 Listed u8 -105

[mt675826]

Just throwing this out there as a consideration for a pre series bet instead of waiting for after game one, any thoughts? Cards leaners?

Cards WS game spread +1.5 (-150). Cheaper than Texas straight up now, 7 games or Cards prevail and it's good.

[815Sox]

I was taking a look at the Cardinals today, glad to see you are on them LTA. I think the Rangers win (as I have mentioned) but it will not be easy. I just think that the Rangers bats will power them through. You'd think that the Cards need to start fizzling out sometime.. but at this point I am not going to count on it. I think this is going to go to a 7th game.

[Love The Action]

Jerry Layne the ump for Game 1...crazy wind also expect with gusts over 29 mph at time. Currently estimated to blow toward right field, but this could be swirling winds. Hmmmm....

[TucsonTom]

Jerry Layne the ump for Game 1...crazy wind also expect with gusts over 29 mph at time. Currently estimated to blow toward right field, but this could be swirling winds. Hmmmm....

I have the wind blowing from the NW or NNW. Wouldn't that blow in from left or at best a cross wind towards the 1st base foul line?

[fitguy67]

sipdawg...what book has that "number of extra-inning games" prop?

[Redscot]

Jerry Layne the ump for Game 1...crazy wind also expect with gusts over 29 mph at time. Currently estimated to blow toward right field, but this could be swirling winds. Hmmmm....

Looks like a chilly, moist, windy game....usually type of game it sucks to hit in. Wind appears like it may knock down RH pull's as I see it, majority of power on both clubs is RH. It being game 1 with the pens totally rested (and dominant lately), not so worried about delay's knocking starters out. I would really like the under if it was 8, but 7 1/2 scares me.........In general having a hard time capping this series....St Louis has been a hell of a team last month +...home field is a definite advantage....pitcher hitting gives Cruz less protection too in the 7 hole. Texas so well rounded though.....GL on the play tonight bro

[Love The Action]

Looks like a chilly, moist, windy game....usually type of game it sucks to hit in. Wind appears like it may knock down RH pull's as I see it, majority of power on both clubs is RH. It being game 1 with the pens totally rested (and dominant lately), not so worried about delay's knocking starters out. I would really like the under if it was 8, but 7 1/2 scares me.........In general having a hard time capping this series....St Louis has been a hell of a team last month +...home field is a definite advantage....pitcher hitting gives Cruz less protection too in the 7 hole. Texas so well rounded though.....GL on the play tonight bro

Even though I like the cardinals tonight, I am not going to take them in the series because if they dont win tonight, it will be very difficult for them to do so in Texas. I am passing up some easy money if the cards do win game one, because you could bet the cards to win the series now at +140 and get Texas at olus odds after the game one loss. However, if the cards lose game one then the cards series bet is probably a loser. Therefore, I am going to lay off the series and stick with the cards in game one.

I agree with your assessment of the total. I would really like the under at 8 . Currently, the wind is from the nw, which is toward the right field corner. I like your analysis respecting right handed pull hitters. I will be eying this total all day, especially with neither lineup familiar with these pitchers.

Good luck Red

[sipdawg7]

the extra innings prop is on sportsbook.com. the night i posted it, the under was under 1.5 (-150). the next day it went to (-200) lol. I just checked right now, the under is (-260) LOL.

[bfour]

LTA, before the playoffs, when the Cards were a game out, I locked them in at +1875 to win the WS. I, like you think they win game 1. Do you hedge or no?

[Love The Action]

LTA, before the playoffs, when the Cards were a game out, I locked them in at +1875 to win the WS. I, like you think they win game 1. Do you hedge or no?

Oh wow...cool bet.

Did you stake a full $100 on it? If so, you stand to make a nice pay day on the cards. However, if they dont win, your hard earned payday disappears. Consequently, I think you have to hedge and guarantee yourself some profit. Thankfully, as I'm sure you are aware, you have a lot of hedging options. If you like, why dont you list your options here and we can all help discuss the options, which one is best and if you are missing anything. GL.

[Redscot]

LTA, before the playoffs, when the Cards were a game out, I locked them in at +1875 to win the WS. I, like you think they win game 1. Do you hedge or no?

Good shit man! LTA is sharper on these angles than I but my personal decision would be to hedge.

[Redscot]

Total is moving upwards......think we hit the magic 8 LTA?


My local is a 20 c book and won't come off -125 for the Cards....not sure what to do there.....seem a little pricey....may have to go -1RL +123 , even though I think there would be a big chance of a push.....thoughts...opinions?

[toddorts]

You need to find a better local, or just bet offshore. Both of those plays are unreasonable. I wouldn't take a -1 RL at anything less than +140.

[bfour]

Oh wow...cool bet.

Did you stake a full $100 on it? If so, you stand to make a nice pay day on the cards. However, if they dont win, your hard earned payday disappears. Consequently, I think you have to hedge and guarantee yourself some profit. Thankfully, as I'm sure you are aware, you have a lot of hedging options. If you like, why dont you list your options here and we can all help discuss the options, which one is best and if you are missing anything. GL.

I did not stake $100. Would've been nice. I actually split $100 on STL and Tampa to win their respective leagues and the WS after the 160th game of the season when they were both 1 out simply cuz I felt the line was too high. I haven't hedged to this point. I will shop around and give my options in a little bit.

[Redscot]

You need to find a better local, or just bet offshore. Both of those plays are unreasonable. I wouldn't take a -1 RL at anything less than +140.

Yeah, agreed, he has his warts, on the other hand he presents me with many opportunities with his guard down and slow moving lines that more than makes up for it. Sometimes his lines are very reasonable, this is a case where he is being very stingy for whatever reason....that's why I am hesitant to bet it. I am offshore myself, where I live gambling is legal...so not really intrigued in putting my money in someone else's hands.

[815Sox]

Where do you live Redscot? Just curious, I am really interested in other cultures and people in general. If you do not want to answer that is fine.

[Redscot]

Where do you live Redscot? Just curious, I am really interested in other cultures and people in general. If you do not want to answer that is fine.

I live in the Dominican Republic Sox. I was born and raised in NYC, but have lived here for the last 7 years, and have no plans on leaving

[bfour]

I'm looking at Texas -155 for the series. I'm really looking at waiting tho. I like St. Louis tonight but don't want to screw myself. I guess I could potentially go after exact outcome props at +money. I think the Cards win more than 1 game in the series.

I did not stake $100. Would've been nice. I actually split $100 on STL and Tampa to win their respective leagues and the WS after the 160th game of the season when they were both 1 out simply cuz I felt the line was too high. I haven't hedged to this point. I will shop around and give my options in a little bit.