LTA's MLB Plays

[Trivial]

Thanks LTA. Looks like the lines are not yet available for the Rangers offshore yet.

[CdeQ]

Today's analysis was spot on!

[Redscot]

Nice call again LTA. I was on the other side of this one and had an additional 1/2 unit on texas TT over 3.5 . Thankfully the night wasn't too bad as I hit the under. I must say, Fister was masterful. Even though he had a great 2nd half I thought he got a way with a lot of mistakes against the Yanks last round and figured Texas would capitalize on those mistakes and make him pay....boy was I wrong. Poor Beltre got to the point he didn't wanna swing the bat after hitting ball after ball off his legs .
Interesting enough it was the right handed batters who did Lewis in for the most part tonight.

Looking forward to todays action, will be back on board today with your calls

[BiffTFinancial]

thanks for the Tigers -1 winner, LTA.

[Love The Action]

Nice call again LTA. I was on the other side of this one and had an additional 1/2 unit on texas TT over 3.5 . Thankfully the night wasn't too bad as I hit the under. I must say, Fister was masterful. Even though he had a great 2nd half I thought he got a way with a lot of mistakes against the Yanks last round and figured Texas would capitalize on those mistakes and make him pay....boy was I wrong. Poor Beltre got to the point he didn't wanna swing the bat after hitting ball after ball off his legs .
Interesting enough it was the right handed batters who did Lewis in for the most part tonight.

Looking forward to todays action, will be back on board today with your calls

Talk to you later...good luck

[Love The Action]

thanks for the Tigers -1 winner, LTA.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2011 Playoffs 10/12/11

Play #1

Brewers/Cardinals under (7) (+100) 1x (Locked) (Subject to buy out for weather concerns)

Locking this one in now at plus odds. FYI - we do have some rain concerns to deal with. If this one looks like the rain will affect the starting pitchers I may have to buy out before game time tomorrow. Otherwise, this is a solid play that I would have liked to play for a higher stake but for the weather issues and the ump assignments. Both pitchers have performed outstanding sans Carpenter's three day rest debacle. We all know both of these guys have great advanced stats, so I won't go there. But once again we see this pitching matchup pits two guys who have also fared well against the opposing lineups. Out of the two lineups, only Fielder and Weeks have hit Carpenter and only Furcal, Berkman and Pujols have hit Gallardo. Those are some pretty respectable names, but this is the playoffs. Runs are at a premium during the playoffs and I expect the same on Wednesday. Unfortunately, the ump is Holbrook and he's a notorious over guy with a pathetic 61.7% strike rate (call some strikes azzhole!!) so this is a big wild card on this play and along with the weather holds me back from making this a bit bigger. Nevertheless, the wind should be blowing across the field so that not the worst case scenario. I have this one at 6.2 and I don't think this one hits 8. I expect all bets heavily on the over, but the under to close at 7 (-110) or more, so we're getting great value at 7 (+100). I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Rangers ML (-108) 1x (Locked)

I really hope Detroit wins tonight because that sets up perfectly for a play on the Rangers in this spot. I am thinking about adding to this play and may do so down the road. In this case, we see a pretty solid pitching advantage to Harrison, despite both pitchers having very poor results against the opposing lineups. Nevertheless, if you look at the advanced stats, it's pretty clear the Rangers should take this game when you weigh what is proving be a Texas lineup that is superior to an ailing Detroit lineup. Plus, if Martinez is hurt for this game with a potential oblique injury, that could be the series right there with no one available to protect Cabrera. Harrison has a better WAR, SIERA, K% and comparable GB/FB to Porcello, but his situational splits are also glaringly in his favor. When you consider Harrison had a better FIP and xFIP in September/October, performed much better in high leverage situations and has better platoon splits (L/R) than Porcello, it's pretty clear you have to side with Harrison in this spot, especially considering the offensive and really the bullpen advantage as well. If the Tigers can win tonight, this makes this game ultra important for the Rangers so they can face Verlander up 3-1 as opposed to tied 2-2. If not, they will be looking to close it out. Either way, I have the Rangers at -116 in this game, so we're also getting great value. To me, everything points to the Rangers in this spot and I'm rolling with Texas for 1x and maybe more down the line. Good luck.

I'm off to work....here is what we have so far for today. We are 10-2 over our last 12 mlb plays, so lets keep it going and cash both of these tickets. I may add to the stake of both plays once I see how the market reacts and what the weather forecast says about the nl game tonight. Good luck.

[upscope]

Books not currently taking action on Tex/Det game.....obviously waiting for a little more news on VMart & maybe waiting for Porcello confirmed & not Verlander?? Line likely to be effected based on VMart status. And obv w/ Verlander

[Adm. Cowpollock]

Super call on the RL, LTA!

I must say, Fister was masterful. Even though he had a great 2nd half I thought he got a way with a lot of mistakes against the Yanks last round and figured Texas would capitalize on those mistakes and make him pay....boy was I wrong.

Redscot I was wrong right along with you. I was thinking exactly the same after seeing Fister struggle in the Yankee game. I figured a few ERs by Fister, a few by Lewis, over 4.5 in 5. Missed that with Miggy's double just short of a HR and Kelly grounding out with bases loaded in bottom of the 5th. Good luck today all.

[Trivial]

Looks like Pinny has -113 and 5d has -114 posted. Most others still don't have a line.

[Love The Action]

Interesting enough it was the right handed batters who did Lewis in for the most part

I would say that my point about the lefties proved true. Martinez hit the big game changing home run from the left side and Dirks rewarded our support with a hit, stolen base and a run. Cabrera had the big double and homer, but the lefties had a good night.

[Love The Action]

Looks like Pinny has -113 and 5d has -114 posted. Most others still don't have a line.

My local who I got -108 now has -115. Remember, I have this one around -120 so there is still value.

Its weird you guys couldnt get -108. This particular local is the one that follows pinny/5d lines so I would think that's where he got that number. However, my other local who follows legend lines did not have that game posted so maybe iffshores were playing it safe. Btw, I have lines in thursday games now as well. Lohse is -122 and Verlander is -173 with totals of 8.5 & 7.5 both juiced on the under.

I wish I would have gone bigger on todays rangers play now that Its gone up 7 cents.

I will remind you again though, if you like this play, make sure you only take listed pitchers harrison and porcello and not action. Good luck.

[Trivial]

My local who I got -108 now has -115. Remember, I have this one around -120 so there is still value.

Its weird you guys couldnt get -108. This particular local is the one that follows pinny/5d lines so I would think that's where he got that number. However, my other local who follows legend lines did not have that game posted so maybe iffshores were playing it safe. Btw, I have lines in thursday games now as well. Lohse is -122 and Verlander is -173 with totals of 8.5 & 7.5 both juiced on the under.

I wish I would have gone bigger on todays rangers play now that Its gone up 7 cents.

I will remind you again though, if you like this play, make sure you only take listed pitchers harrison and porcello and not action. Good luck.

Thanks for your wisdom LTA. Ya, the offshores don't have anything for Thursday. Pinny and 5d only posted lines within the last hour. So did Bookmaker just now.

The Greek still has none posted, so they are being cautious.

I locked in at -114 at Bookmaker. Normally I don't use Bookmaker for baseball, but they were the same as everyone else, so I did. I also made sure to select listed pitchers, or no action.

Best of luck to all of us tonight.

Summary : I got -101 for U7 at Pinny, and -114 for TEX ML at Bookmaker.

[Exxpresso]

My bookie has - 111, nice price. So I put 2 units on the Rangers ML.

[No coincidences]

Nice call again LTA. I was on the other side of this one and had an additional 1/2 unit on texas TT over 3.5 . Thankfully the night wasn't too bad as I hit the under. I must say, Fister was masterful. Even though he had a great 2nd half I thought he got a way with a lot of mistakes against the Yanks last round and figured Texas would capitalize on those mistakes and make him pay....boy was I wrong. Poor Beltre got to the point he didn't wanna swing the bat after hitting ball after ball off his legs .
Interesting enough it was the right handed batters who did Lewis in for the most part tonight.

Looking forward to todays action, will be back on board today with your calls

Great post Red. Game didn't go as I figured it would either. Oh well -- on to today.

[Redscot]

I would say that my point about the lefties proved true. Martinez hit the big game changing home run from the left side and Dirks rewarded our support with a hit, stolen base and a run. Cabrera had the big double and homer, but the lefties had a good night.

Yes, agreed, but Peralta, Cabrera, Jackson provided just as big....If you break down the hits Righties did more damage, avg. extra bases etc. Lefties had 2 hits all night, and Santiago added one as switch hitter, of their 11 hits. Still, this is not tossing away your point that Lefties hit Lewis better, that is undeniable. I think the imbalance Lewis has is exacerbated by the wind tunnel at home which favors lefties as well.

edit: Actually not sure why I want/need to make this point, lol, prolly just pissed at myself and trying to justify my misplay.

End of the day you had it right, count de'money and lets get some more today

[No coincidences]

Yes, agreed, but Peralta, Cabrera, Jackson provided just as big....If you break down the hits Righties did more damage, avg. extra bases etc. Lefties had 2 hits all night, and Santiago added one as switch hitter, of their 11 hits. Still, this is not tossing away your point that Lefties hit Lewis better, that is undeniable. I think the imbalance Lewis has is exacerbated by the wind tunnel at home which favors lefties as well.

edit: Actually not sure why I want/need to make this point, lol, prolly just pissed at myself and trying to justify my misplay.

End of the day you had it right, count de'money and lets get some more today

I'm more pissed at myself for misplaying the "hangover" effect. I thought Detroit would have a hard time recovering from such a deflating loss -- instead, Texas looked pretty hung over from their big win. They were lifeless last night.

[Redscot]

I'm more pissed at myself for misplaying the "hangover" effect. I thought Detroit would have a hard time recovering from such a deflating loss -- instead, Texas looked pretty hung over from their big win. They were lifeless last night.

I agree., but I think Fister had a lot to do with it as well. Even in the first inning when they scored it is not as if they were squaring up the ball, they were dinkers for the most part. He owned the inside of the plate all night on the righties.....I also think Fister was not getting favorable calls on the outside corner for the most part and was able to adapt. That is pitching at it's finest, it's easy to see when a guy is blowing guys away and k-ing 12,but Fister was every bit as dominant last night in his own way.

[No coincidences]

I agree., but I think Fister had a lot to do with it as well. Even in the first inning when they scored it is not as if they were squaring up the ball, they were dinkers for the most part. He owned the inside of the plate all night on the righties.....I also think Fister was not getting favorable calls on the outside corner for the most part and was able to adapt. That is pitching at it's finest, it's easy to see when a guy is blowing guys away and k-ing 12,but Fister was every bit as dominant last night in his own way.

Fister has really impressed me as a Tiger fan. I was worried about his numbers being a little false down the stretch given his competition, but beating the Yankees and Rangers in such big postseason spots is no joke. Was a little leery of losing Furbush and Wells in that trade, but I was dead wrong. Huge coup for Detroit, given the lack of attention it got vs. Ubaldo going to Cleveland.

What do you think about today's games Red? I'm leaning Texas and St. Louis at the moment; hard to pass on Gallardo at such a tasty price, but I think he's +140 for a reason.

[Donnie Brasco]

Nice harrison is up to -125, good luck guys! Spot on last night brother!

[Redscot]

Fister has really impressed me as a Tiger fan. I was worried about his numbers being a little false down the stretch given his competition, but beating the Yankees and Rangers in such big postseason spots is no joke. Was a little leery of losing Furbush and Wells in that trade, but I was dead wrong. Huge coup for Detroit, given the lack of attention it got vs. Ubaldo going to Cleveland.

What do you think about today's games Red? I'm leaning Texas and St. Louis at the moment; hard to pass on Gallardo at such a tasty price, but I think he's +140 for a reason.

Yes, it was a steal, and good point about the high profile acquisition of Ubaldo compared to the Fister deal.

I am in total agreement with LTA on the Rangers game. They have the advantage in starting pitching/Lineup (especially with ailing Martinez) and now have their top guns in the BP rested for today as well. Home field and momentum not withstanding I like the Rangers.

I also agree that the best play on that Cards game is the under. Gallardo was lights out last couple of months and Carpenter is such a gamer. If I had to pick a side, I trust Carpenter more than Gallardo.

[Love The Action]

I'm more pissed at myself for misplaying the "hangover" effect. I thought Detroit would have a hard time recovering from such a deflating loss -- instead, Texas looked pretty hung over from their big win. They were lifeless last night.

You may want to rethink your use of motivational angles such as what you mention above. Baseball is not like football where such factors can be more relevant. Baseball is individual matchup driven. Batter v. Pitcher and vice versa. Hitters aren't going up to the plate thinking about the previous nights loss, they are concentrating on getting a hit. Baseball, more than any other sport, is stat and matchup driven...motivational angles are way overrated in bases imho...

[fitguy67]

quietly reading and learning from the intelligent discussion (only iterrupting the thread here to get my goddam 6 points, lol)...

[fitguy67]

btw, i'm glad your bak in the conversational thick of things, nocoin...THIS is one of the few threads that hasn't been infested with the oxygen-wasting twits

[mt675826]

Liking today's calls, LTA. Small go on that under but a larger wager on the Rangers side. Had a dandy night last night, hit the Det ML parlayed with the under (just barely!) and also hit the RL in a single bet. Your record speaks for itself, it would be impressive normally but for october baseball it is incredible. Keep up the awesome advice and work, much thanks.

[mt675826]

Liking today's calls, LTA. Small go on that under but a larger wager on the Rangers side. Had a dandy night last night, hit the Det ML parlayed with the under (just barely!) and also hit the RL in a single bet. Your record speaks for itself, it would be impressive normally but for october baseball it is incredible. Keep up the awesome advice and work, much thanks.

Forgot to mention I had to pay Tex -123 at Bodog, no line was up last night or this morning... then I check this afternoon, brief break from work, and it's high but I'm taking it - hoping it's worse when I get home tonight. Let's hope for a solid evening, GL!

[No coincidences]

You may want to rethink your use of motivational angles such as what you mention above. Baseball is not like football where such factors can be more relevant. Baseball is individual matchup driven. Batter v. Pitcher and vice versa. Hitters aren't going up to the plate thinking about the previous nights loss, they are concentrating on getting a hit. Baseball, more than any other sport, is stat and matchup driven...motivational angles are way overrated in bases imho...

It wasn't the only reason I played Texas last night -- far from it -- and I understand baseball isn't the same when it comes to emotions, home field advantage, etc.

With that being said, I don't totally write it off either. I had a hard time seeing Detroit bouncing back from a demoralizing loss given their offensive form at the plate in recent games, how banged up they were, how much of their bullpen they exhausted the night before, etc. I was wrong. Doubt I will be again today though.

[No coincidences]

btw, i'm glad your bak in the conversational thick of things, nocoin...THIS is one of the few threads that hasn't been infested with the oxygen-wasting twits

[Love The Action]

I really want to add to both plays, but the increased price on texas and the weather/ump concerns on the cards under is holding me back.

What's the deal with this ump holbrook? Why doesn't he call strikes...anybody know anything about this guy which may lead you to believe he may have a normal strike zone today?

[southpaw74]

5dimes has rangers at -122 now. Hope you cash it with the good value LTA

[Louisvillekid1]

LTA,

how do you feel about the under 3.5 (+100) 1st 5? Was planning on playing that as well as Under 7 for game...

[815Sox]

Info on Holmbrook:

"Extra" Strikes/Balls

I define an extra strike as when an umpire calls a strike that the Pitch f/x system would have called a ball, and vice-versa for an extra ball. Subtract the extra balls from the extra strikes that an umpire makes, divide by the total number of calls he made over the season, and the result is how much (and which way) each umpire is weighted.

Then to put the number in a form that is easily digestible, I’ve expressed each umpires score in terms of the league average and multiplied by 150 (calls/game). The result is a +/- value for how many more strikes a particular umpire would call compared over a complete game as compared to the league average (strikes above average or SAA). Negative numbers mean that the umpire would call that many more balls than strikes.

Enough definitions—here are the 10 largest and smallest zones in baseball: (minimum of 1000 pitches)

Smallest Strike Zone
Name of Umpire SAA
Gerry Davis -5.20
Paul Schrieber -5.02
Dana DeMuth -4.03
Randy Marsh -3.57
Chuck Meriwether -3.25
Sam Holbrook -3.10
Chad Fairchild -2.89
Larry Poncino -2.79
Greg Gibson -2.73
Larry Young -2.69

Left Side of Plate (From Catcher’s Perspective)

Smallest Left Side Strike Zone
Name of Umpire SAA
Larry Vanover -5.86
Randy Marsh -5.57
Greg Gibson -5.36
Fieldin Culbreth -4.83
Dana DeMuth -3.78
Angel Hernandez -3.69
Alfonso Marquez -3.20
Bruce Froemming -2.98
Tim McClelland -2.90
Sam Holbrook -2.83

Bottom Edge

Smallest Low Strike Zone
Name of Umpire SAA
Larry Young -8.88
Chuck Meriwether -8.08
Sam Holbrook -7.83
Larry Poncino -7.26
Dana DeMuth -6.79
Dan Iassogna -6.23
James Hoye -6.05
Wally Bell -4.61
Mike Winters -4.52
Derryl Cousins -4.35

Largest High Strike Zone
Name of Umpire SAA
Gary Darling 8.34
Dan Iassogna 8.22
Eric Cooper 7.52
Jeff Nelson 7.44
Sam Holbrook 5.61
Jim Wolf 3.72
Gary Cederstrom 3.64
Brian Knight 3.51
John Hirschbeck 3.42
Ted Barrett 3.33

Note: Article is from 2007

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/a-zone-of-their-own/

offtopic: People may want to take a look at tonights Avs vs Blue Jackets game. It is starting to tighten up though.

[BennyFang]

Neat ump article.....

....LTA....was wondering if you have a lean on the StL/Mil side. I realize there is probably no value in the Cards ML, but what do you think aside of the lines? Thanks!

[Love The Action]

LTA,

how do you feel about the under 3.5 (+100) 1st 5? Was planning on playing that as well as Under 7 for game...

No real strong opinion...i would say 50/50 at 3.5. I would view it more favorably at under 4, but I really dont cap or play first five all that much, so maybe you have a better read than me. Ofcourse I expect both pitchers to perform well, but I would not be surprised to see it tied 2-2 in the fifth, and still cash the game under. I only like first five under rare circumstances. In this case, both bullpens are rested and ready so I dont see a need to add risk with the first five....just my opinion though. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Info on Holmbrook:

Note: Article is from 2007

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/a-zone-of-their-own/

Awesome...thanks. Pretty much backed my decision not to make this a bigger play. This guy holbrook is a joke of an umpire.