Saturday MLB Betting Beat
By: Peter Loshak | sbrforum.com
Zach Duke is looking more and more like the dominant pitcher he was as a rookie with the Pirates in 2005, and that makes Pittsburgh an option at Baltimore Saturday night.
DUKE LOOKS TO BE IMPROVING
This is an interesting game from a capping perspective. Pirates’ starter Zach Duke is suddenly pitching well, somewhat reminiscent of his auspicious debut in the majors in 2005 which, needless to say, he has not been able to duplicate since. The key to it all for Duke is his sinker, which was working well in his last two starts. What is his fate likely to be on Saturday? It’s not entirely clear.
But if Duke is once again good, the Pirates should be in good shape to win. Baltimore starter Radhames Liz has been ok in his first two starts in the majors this year, but that mediocrity may have been a bit of a mirage. He was not terribly impressive in the minors this year, and I see him as always vulnerable in the bigs. The betting odds may be overreacting a bit to those two decent starts putting Baltimore as a modest but clear favorite around -130.
The Orioles have become a team with some fight in them, which is impressive, but if Liz gets hit and Duke’s sinker is working again, another comeback will be a tough assignment.
LEE LOOKING TO BOUNCE BACK
Where is Cliff Lee headed? Is he about to descend further, rebound back into Cy Young form, or plateau into non-dominant decency? That’s the big question, and it would probably be a bit premature to write him off as a non-Cy Young contender just yet.
He has had a run of so-so starts, but to give him a bit of a break they were mostly on the road, and some were quite tough assignments. His ERA is admittedly over 6.00 over his last five starts; but settling to 3.00 ERA form with a bunch of seven-inning shutout starts mixed in, as long as he stays healthy, is what I most expect to happen.
The Padres, though, are not the ideal choice for Lee to return to dominance against, as their bats have come to life a bit recently, and will probably continue to do so throughout their interleague road trip.
San Diego starter Cha Seung Baek is scrappy and can usually keep his team within striking distance, which makes him attractive as a big underdog. If the line climbs higher, I may consider a play on San Diego.
ROYALS CAN’T BUY A ROAD WIN
Kansas City is a weak team, and usually a good fade on the road against winning teams, even as a big underdog. The one thing that gives me pause here is that taking Randy Johnson on four days rest at such a big line has been a risky thing to do in years past. As he has gotten older, Johnson has typically fared much better on more rest than four days, although so far this year that has not been the case. But Arizona’s bats have cooled off a bit, and Luke Hochevar has good potential, even if he is not there yet.
The Royals, though, are 2-14 over their last 16 on the road, and looking over their lineup it is not hard to see why. There’s just not much there.
A play on the Diamondbacks probably still has value at the big line near -170 where it settled in on the overnight, but unless the line moves down, which it probably won’t, that value is probably small.
SANTANA CONTINUES TO CRUISE AT HOME
Ervin Santana’s career-spanning dominance at home at Angel Stadium has not slipped one bit in 2008. He has won over 70% of his decisions at home in his career, and this year he is once again 3-1 at home, with top-notch peripherals. In light of that, getting him at around -160 at home against anyone looks like a good deal.
Atlanta will be countering with top prospect Charlie Morton making his big league debut. Morton has done well in the minors, and made some lights-out starts down there. But the bigs is a different matter, and it would take unusual composure for him to not miss a beat in this spot.
Chone Figgins has returned to the Angels’ lineup, and that is a big boost for them. Table setters key their offensive production, and Figgins is one of the best in the game. He may not be ready to go right out of the gate, but on Friday he reached base in three out of four plate appearances, which was promising.
Chipper Jones is expected to be back in the lineup for Atlanta, but the Angels still have the clear edge here.
By: Peter Loshak | sbrforum.com
Zach Duke is looking more and more like the dominant pitcher he was as a rookie with the Pirates in 2005, and that makes Pittsburgh an option at Baltimore Saturday night.
DUKE LOOKS TO BE IMPROVING
This is an interesting game from a capping perspective. Pirates’ starter Zach Duke is suddenly pitching well, somewhat reminiscent of his auspicious debut in the majors in 2005 which, needless to say, he has not been able to duplicate since. The key to it all for Duke is his sinker, which was working well in his last two starts. What is his fate likely to be on Saturday? It’s not entirely clear.
But if Duke is once again good, the Pirates should be in good shape to win. Baltimore starter Radhames Liz has been ok in his first two starts in the majors this year, but that mediocrity may have been a bit of a mirage. He was not terribly impressive in the minors this year, and I see him as always vulnerable in the bigs. The betting odds may be overreacting a bit to those two decent starts putting Baltimore as a modest but clear favorite around -130.
The Orioles have become a team with some fight in them, which is impressive, but if Liz gets hit and Duke’s sinker is working again, another comeback will be a tough assignment.
LEE LOOKING TO BOUNCE BACK
Where is Cliff Lee headed? Is he about to descend further, rebound back into Cy Young form, or plateau into non-dominant decency? That’s the big question, and it would probably be a bit premature to write him off as a non-Cy Young contender just yet.
He has had a run of so-so starts, but to give him a bit of a break they were mostly on the road, and some were quite tough assignments. His ERA is admittedly over 6.00 over his last five starts; but settling to 3.00 ERA form with a bunch of seven-inning shutout starts mixed in, as long as he stays healthy, is what I most expect to happen.
The Padres, though, are not the ideal choice for Lee to return to dominance against, as their bats have come to life a bit recently, and will probably continue to do so throughout their interleague road trip.
San Diego starter Cha Seung Baek is scrappy and can usually keep his team within striking distance, which makes him attractive as a big underdog. If the line climbs higher, I may consider a play on San Diego.
ROYALS CAN’T BUY A ROAD WIN
Kansas City is a weak team, and usually a good fade on the road against winning teams, even as a big underdog. The one thing that gives me pause here is that taking Randy Johnson on four days rest at such a big line has been a risky thing to do in years past. As he has gotten older, Johnson has typically fared much better on more rest than four days, although so far this year that has not been the case. But Arizona’s bats have cooled off a bit, and Luke Hochevar has good potential, even if he is not there yet.
The Royals, though, are 2-14 over their last 16 on the road, and looking over their lineup it is not hard to see why. There’s just not much there.
A play on the Diamondbacks probably still has value at the big line near -170 where it settled in on the overnight, but unless the line moves down, which it probably won’t, that value is probably small.
SANTANA CONTINUES TO CRUISE AT HOME
Ervin Santana’s career-spanning dominance at home at Angel Stadium has not slipped one bit in 2008. He has won over 70% of his decisions at home in his career, and this year he is once again 3-1 at home, with top-notch peripherals. In light of that, getting him at around -160 at home against anyone looks like a good deal.
Atlanta will be countering with top prospect Charlie Morton making his big league debut. Morton has done well in the minors, and made some lights-out starts down there. But the bigs is a different matter, and it would take unusual composure for him to not miss a beat in this spot.
Chone Figgins has returned to the Angels’ lineup, and that is a big boost for them. Table setters key their offensive production, and Figgins is one of the best in the game. He may not be ready to go right out of the gate, but on Friday he reached base in three out of four plate appearances, which was promising.
Chipper Jones is expected to be back in the lineup for Atlanta, but the Angels still have the clear edge here.
