MLB Opening Day Tuneup

[TPowell]

I played baseball all of my life up until college. I know the game pretty well and I've watched quite a bit of baseball as a die hard Braves fan. What should I be looking at before betting from those who've done this for years. So far I have the following

1. FADE the bad defensive teams (errors wise) and BET ON the best defensive teams
2. Wait until the lineup cards come in to place bets
3. Don't bet the -1.5 RL with the home team


Anything else?

[jorge1]

How are you bud?

Well, we have been discussin this in another thread (Is MLB worth getting into?), but ill comment.

Usually you wanna look for good DOGs. No faves. Period. Road dogs are great - usually underrated. As you may know, homefield advantage is not a huge thing in baseball, but it does drive the price up because of public perception.

Don't look at the pitchers as the only part of the equation...The pitchers are the BIGGEST public perception deceptor for every line. But, there is alot ALOT more than the starting pitcher. So look for ACE pitchers, and for teams which have their numbers. Look for bullpens (rested ones, or beat up ones to fade).

i dunno what else to say except look for the prices. You might know alot in bases, and ive known ppl who did well due to their game knowledge, but, knowing about lines, line movement, line prices, will make you alot alot richer!

[Ice House]

Playing at home does matter in MLB... go back and look at teams records from last year. Almost every team had a much better home record than road record.

[befus]

As far as I know the guys who make a living handicapping bases study three things and just about only three things.
1. pitching
2. Pitching
3. PITCHING
All other stats are pretty much extraneous. One other factor which is of some use (especially as it affects home team plays) is weather. If you spend much time looking at other stats you are wasting your time IMHO. Learn all you can about pitchers and what makes them tick and you will be on your way.

[jorge1]

Playing at home does matter in MLB... go back and look at teams records from last year. Almost every team had a much better home record than road record.

It does matter, but not as much as it GENERALLY inflates the lines.

[jorge1]

As far as I know the guys who make a living handicapping bases study three things and just about only three things. 1. pitching 2. Pitching 3. PITCHING All other stats are pretty much extraneous. One other factor which is of some use (especially as it affects home team plays) is weather. If you spend much time looking at other stats you are wasting your time IMHO. Learn all you can about pitchers and what makes them tick and you will be on your way.

I agree that pitching is EMPIRICAL! but i gotta say that there is ALOT that goes INTO pitching...like bullpens, and match-ups. Its easy to lose alot of money just looking at the pitching matchup and betting on a pitcher beating the other...its more like can the pitcher beat their lineup, and vice-versa.

Also, i find that ive made LOTS of money in situational wagers. Lots of road trips, or games that go long into the night, and then the team travels to play a new series at 1PM the next day. Things like that make bundles of money...

Finally, PRICES! line price IS everything! so if you are good at picking pitchers, and matching good prices to it, you can certainly shop for the better lines...

example, i can look through a 15 game sheet any given day and call two or three games correctly...but if i dont get the right price for any of them, i wouldnt bet them!

If i calculate that perhaps a pitcher has a 60% chance of winning and odds are -160 / +140 which side should i pick? I would say the line has NO EDGE... either way, you lose...i mean, there is a winner and a loser, but long term? long term, that line beats you every time!

BOL to all