I am guilty of betting way too many games on an NFL Sunday, and now I find I've done the same with MLB futures. I won't list all the bets I made, but thought I'd share some of the stronger plays. Good luck to all.
Team wins
Arizona, over 86.5, +110. This may be too good to be true. This is a young, up and coming team that won 90 games last season, and should have learned plenty from that experience. Their young, improving, offensive nucleus should bail the team out against offensively-challenged division foes in San Francisco and San Diego, and on top of all that, they added Dan Haren to the rotation, who seems a lock for 15 wins.
Chicago Cubs, over 87.5, +104. The Cubs are a fashionable pick to celebrate their 100-year World Series drought with a title this season. I like their chances of getting there.
Chicago won 85 games last season, and should be improved this time around. They get a full year out of Geovany Soto behind the plate (a likely upgrade over Barrett and Kendall), and a full season out of Kosuke Fukudome (a considerable upgrade over Jacque Jones). Carlos Zambrano can put the contract question behind him, Rich Hill is a rising star, and Ted Lilly has had his adjustment season in the National League. Combined with a solid bullpen, the Cubs should threaten 90-plus wins this season. Chicago also benefits from heavy divisional play in the weak NL Central.
New York Mets, under 93.5, -110. New York won 88 games last season, and face considerable pressure this year as seemingly everyone's choice as NL champs. We know how well they dealt with pressure last season.
What makes anyone think the Mets will be 6 games better this season? They are an old team made even more fragile with the passing of another season. Delgado is a question, Beltran's knees ache, Alou is out.
Yes, Santana is a stud, but that has inflated this win-total. Pedro and El-Duke are another year older, while Maine and Perez must catch lightning in a bottle for a second time.
The Mets can be considered among the NL elite, but a 94-win season seems a trifle too optomistic.
Colorado Rockies, over 83.5, -115. This is really underestimating what Colorado achieved last season. Just 83.5 wins for the defending NL champs, fresh off a 90-win season?
Sure, that total was inflated by last year's remarkable finish, but much like Arizona, this is a young team that gained invaluable experience, especially in terms of their young pitchers. Full seasons of Corpas in the bullpen, backed by Fuentes, plus a rotation buoyed by Morales and Jiminez, makes the team that much stronger, and works nicely with an already impressive offence.
For Colorado, 84 wins should come easy, considering an 81 win season is only a .500 campaign, and they are certainly better than that.
San Francisco, under 72, -120. San Francisco will be in a battle to avoid being the worst team in the National League. They won 71 last season, and return impressive starters Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, but the offence is devoid of Barry. When Benji Molina is your clean-up hitter, you have series issues. It isn't the safest bet on the board, because the team should be a lot looser mentally, but playing with four other teams with legitimate bids for an NL West title, the Giants have their work cut out for them.
Anaheim (don't call me Los Angeles) Angels, under 91.5, -115. I've seen this total offered at -160 on some books, so the -115 is a gift. Anaheim has already lost two top starters in Lackey and Escobar, and will be relying on some kids to pull them through. I think they'll be fine, but 91.5 seems awfully high for play in the top-heavy American League.
Other smaller plays I like are Philadelphia under 87.5 (too many pitching questions behind Hamels and Myers); Baltimore under 65.5 (the ALs answer to the NL Giants); Seattle over 83.5 (a team that added Bedard and Silva to King Felix only needs to finish six games over .500 to cash as a winner; and they won 88 last season); and St. Louis under 76.5 (an inflated total for a team with one legitimate starter in Wainwright, a hurting Pujols, and a leadership void).
Team wins
Arizona, over 86.5, +110. This may be too good to be true. This is a young, up and coming team that won 90 games last season, and should have learned plenty from that experience. Their young, improving, offensive nucleus should bail the team out against offensively-challenged division foes in San Francisco and San Diego, and on top of all that, they added Dan Haren to the rotation, who seems a lock for 15 wins.
Chicago Cubs, over 87.5, +104. The Cubs are a fashionable pick to celebrate their 100-year World Series drought with a title this season. I like their chances of getting there.
Chicago won 85 games last season, and should be improved this time around. They get a full year out of Geovany Soto behind the plate (a likely upgrade over Barrett and Kendall), and a full season out of Kosuke Fukudome (a considerable upgrade over Jacque Jones). Carlos Zambrano can put the contract question behind him, Rich Hill is a rising star, and Ted Lilly has had his adjustment season in the National League. Combined with a solid bullpen, the Cubs should threaten 90-plus wins this season. Chicago also benefits from heavy divisional play in the weak NL Central.
New York Mets, under 93.5, -110. New York won 88 games last season, and face considerable pressure this year as seemingly everyone's choice as NL champs. We know how well they dealt with pressure last season.
What makes anyone think the Mets will be 6 games better this season? They are an old team made even more fragile with the passing of another season. Delgado is a question, Beltran's knees ache, Alou is out.
Yes, Santana is a stud, but that has inflated this win-total. Pedro and El-Duke are another year older, while Maine and Perez must catch lightning in a bottle for a second time.
The Mets can be considered among the NL elite, but a 94-win season seems a trifle too optomistic.
Colorado Rockies, over 83.5, -115. This is really underestimating what Colorado achieved last season. Just 83.5 wins for the defending NL champs, fresh off a 90-win season?
Sure, that total was inflated by last year's remarkable finish, but much like Arizona, this is a young team that gained invaluable experience, especially in terms of their young pitchers. Full seasons of Corpas in the bullpen, backed by Fuentes, plus a rotation buoyed by Morales and Jiminez, makes the team that much stronger, and works nicely with an already impressive offence.
For Colorado, 84 wins should come easy, considering an 81 win season is only a .500 campaign, and they are certainly better than that.
San Francisco, under 72, -120. San Francisco will be in a battle to avoid being the worst team in the National League. They won 71 last season, and return impressive starters Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, but the offence is devoid of Barry. When Benji Molina is your clean-up hitter, you have series issues. It isn't the safest bet on the board, because the team should be a lot looser mentally, but playing with four other teams with legitimate bids for an NL West title, the Giants have their work cut out for them.
Anaheim (don't call me Los Angeles) Angels, under 91.5, -115. I've seen this total offered at -160 on some books, so the -115 is a gift. Anaheim has already lost two top starters in Lackey and Escobar, and will be relying on some kids to pull them through. I think they'll be fine, but 91.5 seems awfully high for play in the top-heavy American League.
Other smaller plays I like are Philadelphia under 87.5 (too many pitching questions behind Hamels and Myers); Baltimore under 65.5 (the ALs answer to the NL Giants); Seattle over 83.5 (a team that added Bedard and Silva to King Felix only needs to finish six games over .500 to cash as a winner; and they won 88 last season); and St. Louis under 76.5 (an inflated total for a team with one legitimate starter in Wainwright, a hurting Pujols, and a leadership void).