Can Blue Jays displace Sox or Yanks?
Toronto hasn't been to the postseason since their back-to-back World Series Championships in 1992-93. Will 2008 be the year the Blue Jays upset the status quo in the AL East?
Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi hopes this is the year his Blue Jays spoil the plans of at least one perennial favorite in the AL East. A lot of fans, and not just Toronto faithful, are hoping the same thing.
Nine of the last 10 years have seen Boston and New York finish in the top two slots of the AL East. The lone exception was 2006 when the Jays placed in the bride’s maid spot 10 games behind the Yankees, with the Red Sox a game south of Toronto. So it’s only natural for there to be a lot of fans – Not just those who truly despise either the Yankees or the Red Sox, or both – to want to see a change atop the division.
However, it just might wishful thinking this year. Though spring stats don’t always mean much, the Blue Jays have struggled in exhibition games, especially on offense where they’ve managed to plate just 90 runs in 24 ‘official’ games to date. And they’re going to have some injuries that will affect the team coming out of the gate, not a good sign for manager John Gibbons and Co.
If Toronto is going to upset the status quo in the AL East, they’re going to have to get off to a great start and not lose any more critical players for any extended period of time. Good luck with that, Blue Jays.
PITCHING
While the offense has been stagnant this spring, the pitchers have done fairly well, allowing just 113 runs in two dozen spring contests. That Toronto is doing well on the mound was to be expected after the Jays placed second in the AL last year with a 4.00 ERA, fourth in fewest walks allowed, sixth in strikeouts and first in complete games.
That CG column is pretty much owed to one arm, and pitching coach Brad Arnsberg is bound to love his job at least every fifth day when Roy Halladay is taking the hill. Doc Halladay had seven of the Blue Jays’ 11 complete games last year; the next closest to him in the AL was Crooked Cap Sabathia with four. Halladay's 31 complete games ranks 12th among active hurlers, first among those who didn’t make their MLB debuts until 1998 or later.
A.J. Burnett should come out of Chute No. 2 this season, followed by Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum and Jesse Litsch. Burnett has averaged just 23½ starts per season since arriving in Toronto before the ’06 campaign, so you have to expect the fragile right-hander to hit the DL at some point this year. Litsch is a decent, maybe above-average arm to have as your fifth starter, but might have been relegated to the bullpen this year if Casey Janssen was not lost for the season with a shoulder injury.
That leaves McGowan and Marcum, a pair of 26-year-olds (McGowan just turned 26 this week), in the middle of the rotation and crucial to Toronto’s chances at playing on past the end of September. Both had their ups and downs in 2007, their first full seasons in the bigs, so we’ll see if they can continue to develop in ’08.
The one thing the rotation lacks is a left-hander, but the club will likely call up southpaw Gustavo Chacin if and when a spot start is needed.
The Blue Jays’ bullpen came through in the clutch last season after closer B.J. Ryan went down early with elbow trouble. They’ll get a chance to do the same this year with Ryan set to open this season on the DL after his elbow was still giving him trouble this spring. Right now, the team’s MLB.com site is listing mid-April as his earliest return.
That means Jeremy Accardo will fill in as the closer for a while, and the former Illinois State Redbird did a fabulous job in that role last year posting a 2.14 ERA and 30 saves. Jason Frasor and southpaw Scott Downs should get a lot of the eighth inning and late lefty specialist gigs respectively.
The middle relief work will go to the right-left Brian tandem, Brian Wolfe and Brian Tallet. There are four non-roster invitees vying for what should be the last two bullpen slots, three left-handers and one right-hander. The righty is Armando Benitez who has yet to get into an ‘A’ game this spring. The three lefties are Jesse Carlson, John Parrish and Mike Gosling. If the decision was based purely on spring stats, then Carlson would have the job with ease after his work so far: 9 IP, no runs allowed, a 7:1 K:BB ratio and limiting batters to a puny .103 average.
OFFENSE/DEFENSE
Part of the scoring troubles this spring has to do with the lack of home run power the team has shown so far. And like their pitching prowess from last year carrying over to this spring, the Blue Jays’ hitting woes have apparently followed suit. Toronto finished 10th in the AL in scoring with 753 runs, ending ninth in the league with 165 homers in 2007.
Now having a team that lacks a little power doesn’t mean you’re going to lose. But you’ve got to be able to get on base a lot, move runners around, steal a base or two, etc., to make up for a shortcoming in the HR column. Toronto didn’t have any of that going for the last year, finishing 13th in steals (57, caught 22 times) and 12th in on-base (.327).
And considering their three biggest position player acquisitions this winter were David Eckstein, Scott Rolen and Shannon Stewart, I don’t see much of an upgrade on offense for Gibbons and hitting coach Gary Denbo to work with.
Let’s start behind the plate where Gregg Zaun is listed as the starter and the team spent over a million on his backup, Rod Barajas. Zaun has proven to be a durable catcher, and has popped double-digit homers each of the last three seasons for the Jays. But he is a bit of a defensive liability. The club originally tried to give Barajas more money with the idea of going with him as their No. 1 catcher. But an agent snafu led to that deal getting nixed and Zaun being brought back. At some point this season, Toronto might call up Curtis Thigpen to take over behind the plate.
Around the horn on the infield, Lyle Overbay is at first, Aaron Hill is the second basemen, Eckstein is at short and Rolen will be at third...eventually. Acquired from St. Louis for Troy Glaus in the offseason, Rolen took a grounder off his right middle digit and had to undergo surgery on Monday (Mar 24), meaning he will miss most if not all of April. Marco Scutaro will fill in at third during Rolen’s absence.
Eckstein and Overbay missed time last year with assorted injuries, and Toronto will go nowhere without Overbay getting back to 2006 form. Hill is off a nice season with 17 dingers and a .291 average.
Scutaro will go back to a utility role once Rolen returns. John McDonald and Russ Adams will be the primary infield backups until then, with Matt Stairs also spelling Overbay at first. Stairs figures to get into 100+ games between the outfield, first and DH this season.
Stewart is back in Toronto after spending the last five seasons with the Twins and A’s, and he will be in left field. Alex Rios will be over in right again after setting career-highs in most categories last year, including homers (24), RBI (85) and runs scored (114). Late rumors have the Jays and Rios about to announce a multi-year extension. Between that pair will be Vernon Wells in center after a slide last season that saw him poke just 16 out and drive in 80 in 149 games with a paltry .706 OPS. Stairs is the primary OF backup right now, with Buck Coats the last man on the bench it appears. At some point this season, look for Toronto to call up Adam Lind.
Frank Thomas will be the DH and should be good for another 25+ HR, 85+ RBI year.
Key Player(s): On the mound, I have Marcum and McGowan down as the most critical to this team being a legitimate playoff contender or having another middle-of-the-pack year in the AL East. Overbay and Wells are easy targets on offense, but I’m also calling out Rolen who will need to contribute in a big way once he gets back on the field.
Futures: TheGreek is listing Toronto at +2500 to win the AL and +4500 to win the Series. The Blue Jays are drawing a win totals break at 85½, with both sides priced at -110.
According to my simulations, Toronto will end just where they did 2007: 83-79. Sorry, but I just don’t see it for the Jays this year, and like the Under 85½.
Toronto hasn't been to the postseason since their back-to-back World Series Championships in 1992-93. Will 2008 be the year the Blue Jays upset the status quo in the AL East?
Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi hopes this is the year his Blue Jays spoil the plans of at least one perennial favorite in the AL East. A lot of fans, and not just Toronto faithful, are hoping the same thing.
Nine of the last 10 years have seen Boston and New York finish in the top two slots of the AL East. The lone exception was 2006 when the Jays placed in the bride’s maid spot 10 games behind the Yankees, with the Red Sox a game south of Toronto. So it’s only natural for there to be a lot of fans – Not just those who truly despise either the Yankees or the Red Sox, or both – to want to see a change atop the division.
However, it just might wishful thinking this year. Though spring stats don’t always mean much, the Blue Jays have struggled in exhibition games, especially on offense where they’ve managed to plate just 90 runs in 24 ‘official’ games to date. And they’re going to have some injuries that will affect the team coming out of the gate, not a good sign for manager John Gibbons and Co.
If Toronto is going to upset the status quo in the AL East, they’re going to have to get off to a great start and not lose any more critical players for any extended period of time. Good luck with that, Blue Jays.
PITCHING
While the offense has been stagnant this spring, the pitchers have done fairly well, allowing just 113 runs in two dozen spring contests. That Toronto is doing well on the mound was to be expected after the Jays placed second in the AL last year with a 4.00 ERA, fourth in fewest walks allowed, sixth in strikeouts and first in complete games.
That CG column is pretty much owed to one arm, and pitching coach Brad Arnsberg is bound to love his job at least every fifth day when Roy Halladay is taking the hill. Doc Halladay had seven of the Blue Jays’ 11 complete games last year; the next closest to him in the AL was Crooked Cap Sabathia with four. Halladay's 31 complete games ranks 12th among active hurlers, first among those who didn’t make their MLB debuts until 1998 or later.
A.J. Burnett should come out of Chute No. 2 this season, followed by Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum and Jesse Litsch. Burnett has averaged just 23½ starts per season since arriving in Toronto before the ’06 campaign, so you have to expect the fragile right-hander to hit the DL at some point this year. Litsch is a decent, maybe above-average arm to have as your fifth starter, but might have been relegated to the bullpen this year if Casey Janssen was not lost for the season with a shoulder injury.
That leaves McGowan and Marcum, a pair of 26-year-olds (McGowan just turned 26 this week), in the middle of the rotation and crucial to Toronto’s chances at playing on past the end of September. Both had their ups and downs in 2007, their first full seasons in the bigs, so we’ll see if they can continue to develop in ’08.
The one thing the rotation lacks is a left-hander, but the club will likely call up southpaw Gustavo Chacin if and when a spot start is needed.
The Blue Jays’ bullpen came through in the clutch last season after closer B.J. Ryan went down early with elbow trouble. They’ll get a chance to do the same this year with Ryan set to open this season on the DL after his elbow was still giving him trouble this spring. Right now, the team’s MLB.com site is listing mid-April as his earliest return.
That means Jeremy Accardo will fill in as the closer for a while, and the former Illinois State Redbird did a fabulous job in that role last year posting a 2.14 ERA and 30 saves. Jason Frasor and southpaw Scott Downs should get a lot of the eighth inning and late lefty specialist gigs respectively.
The middle relief work will go to the right-left Brian tandem, Brian Wolfe and Brian Tallet. There are four non-roster invitees vying for what should be the last two bullpen slots, three left-handers and one right-hander. The righty is Armando Benitez who has yet to get into an ‘A’ game this spring. The three lefties are Jesse Carlson, John Parrish and Mike Gosling. If the decision was based purely on spring stats, then Carlson would have the job with ease after his work so far: 9 IP, no runs allowed, a 7:1 K:BB ratio and limiting batters to a puny .103 average.
OFFENSE/DEFENSE
Part of the scoring troubles this spring has to do with the lack of home run power the team has shown so far. And like their pitching prowess from last year carrying over to this spring, the Blue Jays’ hitting woes have apparently followed suit. Toronto finished 10th in the AL in scoring with 753 runs, ending ninth in the league with 165 homers in 2007.
Now having a team that lacks a little power doesn’t mean you’re going to lose. But you’ve got to be able to get on base a lot, move runners around, steal a base or two, etc., to make up for a shortcoming in the HR column. Toronto didn’t have any of that going for the last year, finishing 13th in steals (57, caught 22 times) and 12th in on-base (.327).
And considering their three biggest position player acquisitions this winter were David Eckstein, Scott Rolen and Shannon Stewart, I don’t see much of an upgrade on offense for Gibbons and hitting coach Gary Denbo to work with.
Let’s start behind the plate where Gregg Zaun is listed as the starter and the team spent over a million on his backup, Rod Barajas. Zaun has proven to be a durable catcher, and has popped double-digit homers each of the last three seasons for the Jays. But he is a bit of a defensive liability. The club originally tried to give Barajas more money with the idea of going with him as their No. 1 catcher. But an agent snafu led to that deal getting nixed and Zaun being brought back. At some point this season, Toronto might call up Curtis Thigpen to take over behind the plate.
Around the horn on the infield, Lyle Overbay is at first, Aaron Hill is the second basemen, Eckstein is at short and Rolen will be at third...eventually. Acquired from St. Louis for Troy Glaus in the offseason, Rolen took a grounder off his right middle digit and had to undergo surgery on Monday (Mar 24), meaning he will miss most if not all of April. Marco Scutaro will fill in at third during Rolen’s absence.
Eckstein and Overbay missed time last year with assorted injuries, and Toronto will go nowhere without Overbay getting back to 2006 form. Hill is off a nice season with 17 dingers and a .291 average.
Scutaro will go back to a utility role once Rolen returns. John McDonald and Russ Adams will be the primary infield backups until then, with Matt Stairs also spelling Overbay at first. Stairs figures to get into 100+ games between the outfield, first and DH this season.
Stewart is back in Toronto after spending the last five seasons with the Twins and A’s, and he will be in left field. Alex Rios will be over in right again after setting career-highs in most categories last year, including homers (24), RBI (85) and runs scored (114). Late rumors have the Jays and Rios about to announce a multi-year extension. Between that pair will be Vernon Wells in center after a slide last season that saw him poke just 16 out and drive in 80 in 149 games with a paltry .706 OPS. Stairs is the primary OF backup right now, with Buck Coats the last man on the bench it appears. At some point this season, look for Toronto to call up Adam Lind.
Frank Thomas will be the DH and should be good for another 25+ HR, 85+ RBI year.
Key Player(s): On the mound, I have Marcum and McGowan down as the most critical to this team being a legitimate playoff contender or having another middle-of-the-pack year in the AL East. Overbay and Wells are easy targets on offense, but I’m also calling out Rolen who will need to contribute in a big way once he gets back on the field.
Futures: TheGreek is listing Toronto at +2500 to win the AL and +4500 to win the Series. The Blue Jays are drawing a win totals break at 85½, with both sides priced at -110.
According to my simulations, Toronto will end just where they did 2007: 83-79. Sorry, but I just don’t see it for the Jays this year, and like the Under 85½.
