Padres try to put ’07 behind them
Despite winning more games than the previous two seasons when they won the NL West, San Diego failed to reach the 2007 playoffs. It won't be any easier this year for the Padres.
It was right there in front of the Padres last season as they came down the stretch. But while many will point to their three-game losing skid that ended the 2007 campaign, the truth is San Diego lost their shot at the postseason before dropping a pair to the Brewers on Sep 29-30 and then falling 9-8 in extra innings on Oct 1 in the one-game playoff with the Rockies.
The Pads just couldn’t get past either Arizona or Colorado last year, going 8-9 versus the Diamondbacks and 8-10 against the Rocks (8-11 factoring in the final game). Winning just once more against either team before Oct 1 would have sent the Padres into the playoffs for a third consecutive season. And if that one extra victory had come at Arizona’s expense, it would have marked the third straight NL West title for San Diego. The irony is the Pads had more wins last year than the previous two when they did win the flag.
As wild as the division was last year, we appear to be in for more of the same this year, possibly even wilder with the Dodgers being everyone's preseason favorite.
General Manager Kevin Towers has built a team around solid pitching in a ballpark that favors pitchers to begin with, adding just enough offense to support the mound corps. And if Bud Black can improve upon his rookie season as a big league manager, this team isn’t going to just fade away after a disappointing finish to the ’07 season.
PITCHING
So let’s get this discussion about Padres pitchers started with a little talk about their home in San Diego, Petco Park. The park is pitcher-friendly, of that there can be no doubt. But it’s not like the Padres are just a one-dimensional team and can only win on their home turf.
San Diego was the only team in the NL West, and one of only four teams in the NL period, to boast a winning road record in 2007 (42-40). The D-Backs and Rockies were the true home boys last year, each amassing 50 or more wins in their home stadiums while the Padres went 47-34 at home. Now it is true San Diego needs to tighten up on some of their pitching stats when on the road as opposed to being at Petco where they posted a 3.43 ERA compared to 4.73 away from SD. But that door swings both ways as we’ll see in a bit when we get to the discussion about the offense.
Darren Balsley has a talented group of arms to oversee as Padres pitching coach, and it all begins at the top of the rotation with Jake Peavy and at the end of the bullpen with Trevor Hoffman. Let’s start this off with Hoffman who is Cooperstown bound when he decides to hang ‘em up.
The MLB career leader in saves with 524, Hoffman would just as soon forget the last two appearances he made in 2007. On Saturday, Sep 29, in Milwaukee, Hoffman surrendered a ninth-inning lead to the Brewers, with injury added to insult when the tying blow came off the bat of Tony Gwynn Jr., whom Hoffman looks at as a nephew. Then came the debacle that was the last inning of the regular season in Colorado two nights later. At 40 years young, his fastball is often clocked with a sundial, but it hasn’t meant any change to his overall effectiveness.
The bullpen in front of Hoffy has changed a bit, with Scott Linebrink leaving during last season and Doug Brocail departing in the winter. Cla Meredith and Heath Bell will be the primary setup arms, and we will have to wait to see if Kevin Cameron makes it into that mix to start the season after hamstring troubles and a bang-up thump on his left hand this spring.
In the middle relief mix are Clay Hensley and left-hander Joe Thatcher, plus Rule V pick Carlos Guevara who will likely open the season on the DL with a hammy injury. Once the rotation shakes out, the bullpen will follow.
With Peavy off an NL Cy Young, finishing first in the NL in wins (19), ERA (2.54) and strikeouts (240), Black’s decision on who gets the Opening Day start is a no-brainer. Behind Peavy we should find Chris R. Young and another arm that is Hall of Fame bound, Greg Maddux. Who gets the 4-5 slots in the rotation is still unclear.
If it was to be decided just on spring numbers, then southpaws Glendon Rusch and Wilfredo Ledezma would be in. But as we know, that’s not all that goes into the decision. Two more left-handers, Randy Wolf and Shawn Estes, are also vying for the jobs. And whoever gets into the mix to begin the season, someone will move aside in May when the Padres hope to have Mark Prior healthy and ready to give it a go.
OFFENSE/DEFENSE
If hitting instructor Wally Joyner can somehow coax an extra single per home game out of his troops, San Diego could be deadly this year in Petco. To begin with, an extra 81 hits for the team last year would’ve lifted their .251 batting average (15th in the NL) 16 points. The extra hits would no doubt have translated into more runs as well, a category the Padres finished ninth in the Senior Circuit.
San Diego’s lineup plated just under four runs per contest at home in ‘07 while scoring over five per game on the road. So scoring a little more at home and surrendering a few less runs away from SD will surely lift this team to that magical 90-win plateau.
Three-quarters of the infield and both catchers return this year for San Diego, led by first baseman Adrian Gonzalez who is off an outstanding ’07 season - .282, 30 HR, 101 Runs, 100 RBI. Across the diamond at third is Kevin Kouzmanoff who came on strong after an extremely slow start. At the end of May, Kouz was just scraping by over the Mendoza line with a .204 batting average and four homers; he ended the year with 18 round trippers and a .275 hitting mark.
Khalil Greene is back at short after setting career highs with 27 HR and 97 RBI, and his double play partner at second will be the only newcomer on the interior of the field, Tadahito Iguchi, inked away from the ChiSox this winter to take Marcus Giles’ place.
Listed as the team’s No. 1 backstop is Josh Bard who set personal bests last year with 118 games played, 51 RBI and 111 hits. Michael Barrett, who arrived midyear from the Cubs, will back Bard up, after a nice spring.
Infield reserves look to be Chase Headley, Callix Crabbe and Tony Clark, with Luis Rodriguez and Oscar Robles also trying to sneak on the Opening Day roster.
Current injuries in the outfield could give either Rodriguez or Robles a job to start the year. Brian Giles has been working his way back into playing shape following offseason knee surgery, and all signs point to him being ready when the bell rings. He will be in right, assuming he is ready; who joins him in the outfield is up in the air now after Mike Cameron left via free agency and Termel Sledge’s contract was sold to Japan.
Jim Edmonds was acquired from St. Louis to take Cameron’s place in center, but the Human Highlight Reel has yet to make an appearance this spring due to a calf injury. If he can’t go on Opening Day, and it’s looking like he won’t be ready, Scott Hairston and possibly Jeff DaVanon, a non-roster invitee, will take the CF chores in the early going with Headley shifting from infield reserve into left field after a solid spring. If Edmonds does open on the DL, it also opens up a slot for Jody Gerut, another NRI, to get some time early on.
Key Player(s): Ironing out the back end of the rotation is critical to begin the season, and the NL will be eying Prior’s return as well. But on the mound, put me down as casting a wary eye in April towards both Maddux and Hoffman. At the plate, some of the power the team lost when Cameron departed will be made up by Kouzmanoff who has that first full season under his belt. Brian Giles and Greene get my vote for critical players on offense.
Futures: My sims point to 86 wins for the Padres which is down a point or two from the last two years. That 86 is the average, however, as San Diego spanned from 80-91 in the simulations. TheGreek finds my average a bit optimistic, place their break on win futures at 84½ presently (+105 Over, -125 Under).
The folks at 5Dimes place the Padres fourth in the NL West this year at +375 to win the division, and list them at +1500 to take home their third NL Pennant. San Diego draws a +3300 price to go all the way.
Despite winning more games than the previous two seasons when they won the NL West, San Diego failed to reach the 2007 playoffs. It won't be any easier this year for the Padres.
It was right there in front of the Padres last season as they came down the stretch. But while many will point to their three-game losing skid that ended the 2007 campaign, the truth is San Diego lost their shot at the postseason before dropping a pair to the Brewers on Sep 29-30 and then falling 9-8 in extra innings on Oct 1 in the one-game playoff with the Rockies.
The Pads just couldn’t get past either Arizona or Colorado last year, going 8-9 versus the Diamondbacks and 8-10 against the Rocks (8-11 factoring in the final game). Winning just once more against either team before Oct 1 would have sent the Padres into the playoffs for a third consecutive season. And if that one extra victory had come at Arizona’s expense, it would have marked the third straight NL West title for San Diego. The irony is the Pads had more wins last year than the previous two when they did win the flag.
As wild as the division was last year, we appear to be in for more of the same this year, possibly even wilder with the Dodgers being everyone's preseason favorite.
General Manager Kevin Towers has built a team around solid pitching in a ballpark that favors pitchers to begin with, adding just enough offense to support the mound corps. And if Bud Black can improve upon his rookie season as a big league manager, this team isn’t going to just fade away after a disappointing finish to the ’07 season.
PITCHING
So let’s get this discussion about Padres pitchers started with a little talk about their home in San Diego, Petco Park. The park is pitcher-friendly, of that there can be no doubt. But it’s not like the Padres are just a one-dimensional team and can only win on their home turf.
San Diego was the only team in the NL West, and one of only four teams in the NL period, to boast a winning road record in 2007 (42-40). The D-Backs and Rockies were the true home boys last year, each amassing 50 or more wins in their home stadiums while the Padres went 47-34 at home. Now it is true San Diego needs to tighten up on some of their pitching stats when on the road as opposed to being at Petco where they posted a 3.43 ERA compared to 4.73 away from SD. But that door swings both ways as we’ll see in a bit when we get to the discussion about the offense.
Darren Balsley has a talented group of arms to oversee as Padres pitching coach, and it all begins at the top of the rotation with Jake Peavy and at the end of the bullpen with Trevor Hoffman. Let’s start this off with Hoffman who is Cooperstown bound when he decides to hang ‘em up.
The MLB career leader in saves with 524, Hoffman would just as soon forget the last two appearances he made in 2007. On Saturday, Sep 29, in Milwaukee, Hoffman surrendered a ninth-inning lead to the Brewers, with injury added to insult when the tying blow came off the bat of Tony Gwynn Jr., whom Hoffman looks at as a nephew. Then came the debacle that was the last inning of the regular season in Colorado two nights later. At 40 years young, his fastball is often clocked with a sundial, but it hasn’t meant any change to his overall effectiveness.
The bullpen in front of Hoffy has changed a bit, with Scott Linebrink leaving during last season and Doug Brocail departing in the winter. Cla Meredith and Heath Bell will be the primary setup arms, and we will have to wait to see if Kevin Cameron makes it into that mix to start the season after hamstring troubles and a bang-up thump on his left hand this spring.
In the middle relief mix are Clay Hensley and left-hander Joe Thatcher, plus Rule V pick Carlos Guevara who will likely open the season on the DL with a hammy injury. Once the rotation shakes out, the bullpen will follow.
With Peavy off an NL Cy Young, finishing first in the NL in wins (19), ERA (2.54) and strikeouts (240), Black’s decision on who gets the Opening Day start is a no-brainer. Behind Peavy we should find Chris R. Young and another arm that is Hall of Fame bound, Greg Maddux. Who gets the 4-5 slots in the rotation is still unclear.
If it was to be decided just on spring numbers, then southpaws Glendon Rusch and Wilfredo Ledezma would be in. But as we know, that’s not all that goes into the decision. Two more left-handers, Randy Wolf and Shawn Estes, are also vying for the jobs. And whoever gets into the mix to begin the season, someone will move aside in May when the Padres hope to have Mark Prior healthy and ready to give it a go.
OFFENSE/DEFENSE
If hitting instructor Wally Joyner can somehow coax an extra single per home game out of his troops, San Diego could be deadly this year in Petco. To begin with, an extra 81 hits for the team last year would’ve lifted their .251 batting average (15th in the NL) 16 points. The extra hits would no doubt have translated into more runs as well, a category the Padres finished ninth in the Senior Circuit.
San Diego’s lineup plated just under four runs per contest at home in ‘07 while scoring over five per game on the road. So scoring a little more at home and surrendering a few less runs away from SD will surely lift this team to that magical 90-win plateau.
Three-quarters of the infield and both catchers return this year for San Diego, led by first baseman Adrian Gonzalez who is off an outstanding ’07 season - .282, 30 HR, 101 Runs, 100 RBI. Across the diamond at third is Kevin Kouzmanoff who came on strong after an extremely slow start. At the end of May, Kouz was just scraping by over the Mendoza line with a .204 batting average and four homers; he ended the year with 18 round trippers and a .275 hitting mark.
Khalil Greene is back at short after setting career highs with 27 HR and 97 RBI, and his double play partner at second will be the only newcomer on the interior of the field, Tadahito Iguchi, inked away from the ChiSox this winter to take Marcus Giles’ place.
Listed as the team’s No. 1 backstop is Josh Bard who set personal bests last year with 118 games played, 51 RBI and 111 hits. Michael Barrett, who arrived midyear from the Cubs, will back Bard up, after a nice spring.
Infield reserves look to be Chase Headley, Callix Crabbe and Tony Clark, with Luis Rodriguez and Oscar Robles also trying to sneak on the Opening Day roster.
Current injuries in the outfield could give either Rodriguez or Robles a job to start the year. Brian Giles has been working his way back into playing shape following offseason knee surgery, and all signs point to him being ready when the bell rings. He will be in right, assuming he is ready; who joins him in the outfield is up in the air now after Mike Cameron left via free agency and Termel Sledge’s contract was sold to Japan.
Jim Edmonds was acquired from St. Louis to take Cameron’s place in center, but the Human Highlight Reel has yet to make an appearance this spring due to a calf injury. If he can’t go on Opening Day, and it’s looking like he won’t be ready, Scott Hairston and possibly Jeff DaVanon, a non-roster invitee, will take the CF chores in the early going with Headley shifting from infield reserve into left field after a solid spring. If Edmonds does open on the DL, it also opens up a slot for Jody Gerut, another NRI, to get some time early on.
Key Player(s): Ironing out the back end of the rotation is critical to begin the season, and the NL will be eying Prior’s return as well. But on the mound, put me down as casting a wary eye in April towards both Maddux and Hoffman. At the plate, some of the power the team lost when Cameron departed will be made up by Kouzmanoff who has that first full season under his belt. Brian Giles and Greene get my vote for critical players on offense.
Futures: My sims point to 86 wins for the Padres which is down a point or two from the last two years. That 86 is the average, however, as San Diego spanned from 80-91 in the simulations. TheGreek finds my average a bit optimistic, place their break on win futures at 84½ presently (+105 Over, -125 Under).
The folks at 5Dimes place the Padres fourth in the NL West this year at +375 to win the division, and list them at +1500 to take home their third NL Pennant. San Diego draws a +3300 price to go all the way.