Pair of 5s Sir 2011 MLB

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Pair, I highly recommend taking a look at betting on Matchbook. From a quick glance, I only saw maybe 1 in 5 games with a line of -110 or worse for a single team. If you match someone else's bet, you pay 1% (which still makes a -105 bet beat what you would have had to pay at -110), or if you lay your own odds, you make .2%. With College basketball, there may not be as many bettors and lines might not be as good as other sports, but with baseball and NFL, it is very rare where I don't see games +105 on a side when more mainstream sites give -110 on both.

Even if you rarely use it, a few bucks here and there always adds up.

Hopefully we have a good year this year and we can make some money. I really like the A's bet, though I'm not so sure the 'Stros have any chance.

Thanks Hoosier, I have matchbook account. However with recent issues with matchbook and it's Wsex connections, I am hesitant. Perhaps things will change.

Welcome to the Tower.

[EXhoosier10]

Pair, can you go a little deeper into your explanation for the Astros pick? Happ and Wandy seem to be their best pitchers, and even so, they both have limited upside. Pence is a solid player, and Lee is due for a bounce-back this year. Hall, Barmes, and Bourne are all average players while the rest are safely below.

On top of that, Milwaukee, STL, and the Reds all have pretty solid teams and the chances Houston has of beating two of them seems low. I know last year with the reds, their only real competitor was STL. Houston just seems like too much a long shot to even consider. Am I missing something?

[BeatingBaseball]

Found this the funniest MLB interaction of the day yesterday - from a press conference before the Boston Baseball Writers Assoc. dinner at the Westin Copley last night - a young TV reporter asked Red Sox mgr. Terry Francona a question:

TV reporter: "With the new additions this year, what are the chances of actually getting a championship?

Francona: "Are you from Vegas? ... How do I know?"

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Luv it!

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Luv it!

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Pair, can you go a little deeper into your explanation for the Astros pick? Happ and Wandy seem to be their best pitchers, and even so, they both have limited upside. Pence is a solid player, and Lee is due for a bounce-back this year. Hall, Barmes, and Bourne are all average players while the rest are safely below.

On top of that, Milwaukee, STL, and the Reds all have pretty solid teams and the chances Houston has of beating two of them seems low. I know last year with the reds, their only real competitor was STL. Houston just seems like too much a long shot to even consider. Am I missing something?

My future selections, like all other selections are contrarian in nature to start off with. During the previous season, I look for something at the end of the season, that tells me if "something" would of turned out differently, perhaps their performance would be better. The Astros got off to a horrific start. Truly horrible. At the 100-1 price and lesser prices at the Division, and Pennant, perhaps the outhouse to the penthouse can yield tons of balloons. Logically, you are on the money. But that's not what I do as you know.

The Contrarian

[BeatingBaseball]

As you know, 5's, futures are not my cup of tea - but when I look at the relative value of the 100 to 1 on Houston to pull off the miracle vs the 40 to 1 on the A's to do so - I have to say that I like the latter play a whole lot better.

If one of those two clubs is going to catch lightening in a bottle in 2011, I'd price the A's at more than -250 to be the one to do it.

We'll have to see if there are any late trades going into spring training, but the more I look at the NL Central the better I like the Brewers. I actually have them a slight favorite to win that division right now although they are currently catching a longer price than both the Reds and the Cards in the futures. When you're projecting Randy Wolf as your #4 starter, it says a lot about the quality of your rotation. And with Braun/Hart in LF/RF + both Prince Fielder and Weeks in the final year of their deals the offense figures to give those pitchers a lot to work with.

I wish you luck with the the Astros - and I'll probably be betting them some with Brett Myers on 5 inning plays - but I'll have a hard time trusting their other starters or bullpen with money - and, unless Carlos Lee has a miraculous turn around, their lineup could probably take BP in the hotel lobby and not break anything.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Selection

Punched a ticket for the following:

Oakland Athletics +1700 to win Pennant
Oakland Athletics +4000 to win World Series

WOW, I just made a MLB wager.

[BeatingBaseball]

May the spirit of Connie Mack be with you.

(attempted to paste the white elephant for you - but couldn't get the damn thing to work)

[EXhoosier10]

Im with you on the A's pair. Good luck to us

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Im with you on the A's pair. Good luck to us

Throw a few bucks on the Stros to show solidarity as a Contrarian.

[TheLock]

I just bet the A's @ +1700 and +4000 but I also bet FLA +2000 and +4500 which I like a little more than the A's future.

FLA can win the Wild Card and if they do, they're pitching staff matches up just fine with anyones (yes, even PHI).

[Pair of 5s Sir]

I just bet the A's @ +1700 and +4000 but I also bet FLA +2000 and +4500 which I like a little more than the A's future.

FLA can win the Wild Card and if they do, they're pitching staff matches up just fine with anyones (yes, even PHI).

Congrats, Mr. Lock. Is there any other future tickets to punch out there. Get on the record, here and now.

[TheJewBear]

I may have to hop on TheLock's FLA picks....can't root for the fish this year and not have a little long term action!

[Pair of 5s Sir]

I may have to hop on TheLock's FLA picks....can't root for the fish this year and not have a little long term action!

TheLock is always right on regarding the Marlins. It seems every year, a prop with the Fish, comes thru. I usually go with one team in each league, I might have to go with the Stros and Fish. Still awaiting my National selection.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Selection

Punched a ticket on the following:

Astros +10000 to win the World Series
Astros +4500 to win the NL Pennant

[betme]

good luck this year pair5s.. do u have a record for past year ?

[Pair of 5s Sir]

good luck this year pair5s.. do u have a record for past year ?

Last year was very challenging. It was met with an interrruption. I had to care for my father who had cancer and subsequently died weeks later. Previous years, between +9 - +25 units

[BeatingBaseball]

Wish you all the luck in the world with the Stros plays, 5's.

Looking at that roster, however, not sure there's enough luck in the world to get them to the post season.

But - hey - at least no one can call you a front runner.

[mlb]

Found this the funniest MLB interaction of the day yesterday - from a press conference before the Boston Baseball Writers Assoc. dinner at the Westin Copley last night - a young TV reporter asked Red Sox mgr. Terry Francona a question: TV reporter: "With the new additions this year, what are the chances of actually getting a championship? Francona: "Are you from Vegas? ... How do I know?"

thats always

[TheLock]

One day closer to baseball season

[vero8o]

I will wait for the season! Welcome!

[Pair of 5s Sir]

I will wait for the season! Welcome!

Welcome Vero to the Contrarian Observation Tower.

Beware O Contrare

[Pair of 5s Sir]

I see the Astros came down from 100-1 to 85 to 1. The money is pouring in.

[ElLoco23]

I enjoy reading this thread, great info, can't wait for baseball even more now.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

I enjoy reading this thread, great info, can't wait for baseball even more now.

Welcome to the Contrarian Observation Tower. You will feel at home here for the fact that we have many "Locos" on board.

Seriously, welcome to SBR and the Tower. Feel free to chime in on whatever.

[stevenash]

Punched a ticket for the following:

Oakland Athletics +1700 to win Pennant
Oakland Athletics +4000 to win World Series

WOW, I just made a MLB wager.

Good luck to you sir.
I am a newbie here, but I am a baseball and fantasy baseball guru myself.
I am looking forward to chatting with you this season.

Two of my coups last season.
Drafting Car-Go in the eight round, and my 100 dollar Texas Ranger to win american league pennant.

Right now I am trying to find someone, or a book to take this wager.

I am willing to bet that Philly will not lose more than four straight games at anytime this season.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Good luck to you sir.
I am a newbie here, but I am a baseball and fantasy baseball guru myself.
I am looking forward to chatting with you this season.

Two of my coups last season.
Drafting Car-Go in the eight round, and my 100 dollar Texas Ranger to win american league pennant.

Right now I am trying to find someone, or a book to take this wager.

I am willing to bet that Philly will not lose more than four straight games at anytime this season.

Last season I selected two teams prior to season start, Twins and Reds, laddered both in the post season, you know the rest.

Welcome to the thread.

The Contrarian

[TheLock]

Right now I am trying to find someone, or a book to take this wager.

I am willing to bet that Philly will not lose more than four straight games at anytime this season.

How many premier teams lose 5 games a row in a season? I don't have statistical data to back myself up but my gut tells me that it is very rare.

I doubt you'll find that prop anywhere.

I do know this; many guys will get buried this year blindly betting the big chalk on the Phillies.

[BeatingBaseball]

Stevenash -

You are "willing to bet that Philly will not lose more than four straight games at anytime this season."

At what price?

[stevenash]

I got a taker 6 years ago with Moose and the Yanks.
I made the same bet, I got +140 that the Yanks ( will not lose more than 4 straight)
Long story short, Yanks had one 4 game losing streak, a couple of three gamers.

Phils with their rotation will not lose 5 straight all season.
Those 4 aces will not lose 4 times in a row, each and every one of them are stoppers.

[TheJewBear]

Seeing Steve Nash post gives me a brief segway to post my latest contrarian NBA picks.

Knicks +3500....to win the East , before Melo gets there.
Clippers +30000...to win the west, hoping The Blake is the first to get the Clipps there

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Gentlemen, we have received information from the Tower that someone is posting basketball picks on this thread. We are placing the premises in a lockdown status.

[BeatingBaseball]

Stevenash -

I share your great respect for the stopping power of the current Phillies rotation and we all recognize that starting pitching is the single biggest factor in baseball success. But there are, of course, at least some other team factors that can come into play, not the least of which is the bullpen, when it comes to slumps and losing streaks.

One way to look at your proposition is this: Lets' assume the Phils are going to be the great club we all think they will be and will win, say, 103 games. That means they will play to a .636 winning percentage.

If every time they take the field they have on average a .636 chance of winning - they also have a .363 chance of losing. If an event that has a .363 chance of coming up L rather than W in one attempt, it has a .363 squared (or .1318) probablility of coming up L twice in a row, a .363 to the power of 3 (or .0478) probability of coming up L three times in a row and a .363 to the 4th power (or .0174) chance of coming up L four times in a row.

If we look at each of the first 159 games of the season as the first game of a separate 4 game series, our .636 Phiillies club will have 159 chances to lose 4 in a row. If those .636 Phils play to the average mathematical expectation they should go 0-4 in one of those 159 separate trials at a rate of .0174 or 2.77 times during the regular season.

From that initial analysis, I would lean toward adjusting the 2.77 number downward because I believe, as you surely do as well, that any of these particular starting pitchers will step up after a loss and be even tougher to beat than the .636. But even that adjustment must also be to some degree offset in consideration of possible injuries and the occasional use of a 5th starter.

All in all, I would seriously consider laying even money that the 2011 Phils lose 4 in a row at least twice during the regular season.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Stevenash -

I share your great respect for the stopping power of the current Phillies rotation and we all recognize that starting pitching is the single biggest factor in baseball success. But there are, of course, at least some other team factors that can come into play, not the least of which is the bullpen, when it comes to slumps and losing streaks.

One way to look at your proposition is this: Lets' assume the Phils are going to be the great club we all think they will be and will win, say, 103 games. That means they will play to a .636 winning percentage.

If every time they take the field they have on average a .636 chance of winning - they also have a .363 chance of losing. If an event that has a .363 chance of coming up L rather than W in one attempt, it has a .363 squared (or .1318) probablility of coming up L twice in a row, a .363 to the power of 3 (or .0478) probability of coming up L three times in a row and a .363 to the 4th power (or .0174) chance of coming up L four times in a row.

If we look at each of the first 159 games of the season as the first game of a separate 4 game series, our .636 Phiillies club will have 158 chances to lose 4 in a row. If those .636 Phils play to the average mathematical expectation they should go 0-4 in one of those 158 separate trials at a rate of .0174 or 2.74 times during the regular season.

From that initial analysis, I would lean toward adjusting the 2.74 number downward because I believe, as you surely do as well, that any of these particular starting pitchers will step up after a loss and be even tougher to beat than the .636. But even that adjustment must also be to some degree offset in consideration of possible injuries and the occasional use of a 5th starter.

All in all, I would seriously consider laying even money that the 2011 Phils lose 4 in a row at least twice during the regular season.

Thank you BB for that insightful analysis.

Thus far you have provided the "Phillies -175 theory"
and
"The Four in a row Phillie Flop (beautiful alliteration, ay)

The Contrarian