Mets out to make up for ’07 collapse
The fall from the NL East lead last September still stings Omar Minaya, Willie Randolph and the Mets, not to mention their fans and those holding futures slips that seemed a sure thing.
It’s been a long winter for the New York Mets and their fans. It’s not just that they blew a sizable lead in the final few weeks and missed the playoffs altogether. It’s that they lost to the Phillies after pooh-poohing on Philadelphia shortstop Jimmy Rollins’ boast before the season that they were the team to beat in the division, not the hyped Mets.
New York moved to 21 games above .500 (83-62) on Sep 12 with a 4-3 win over the Braves who long held a stranglehold on the NL East. That win coupled with a 12-0 thrashing the Phils took at home from the Rockies the same day pushed the Mets to a seven-game lead in the division and the champagne was ordered, probably some really good stuff for owner Fred Wilpon and GM Omar Minaya.
But a funny thing happened on the way to October. New York won just five more games after Sep 12 while losing a dozen times, three of those losses a particularly devastating sweep at home to Philadelphia (Sep 14-16). In those final 17 games it was primarily the pitching that let them down with the offense scoring 99 runs (5.82 rpg) while the opposition was crossing the plate 115 times (6.76 rpg). But a second look shows that New York tallied 13 of those runs in a whitewashing of a rookie-heavy Marlins team on the season’s next-to-last day.
Minaya went to work this winter trying to solve some of the pitching problems, with the big trade to acquire Johan Santana meaning Willie Randolph and the Mets enter 2008 even more hyped than they were a year ago. The good news is, assuming the hype is deserved, there’s already a nice stock of champagne on hand to consume in the celebration.
PITCHING
Pitching, especially the rotation, was supposed to be the Mets’ Achilles last season, and for the most part that analysis was correct. New York finished seventh in the NL with a 4.26 ERA, sixth in both home runs allowed and strikeouts, and a woeful 12th in free passes issued. Injuries to Pedro Martinez – lost for all but five late starts – and Orlando Hernandez played a part in that.
But at the same time, Randolph and pitching coach Rick Peterson also got some nice years out of John Maine and Oliver Perez. Without those two 15-game winners, particularly in the season’s first four months, the Mets wouldn’t have had anything close to a seven-game lead on Sep 12.
Martinez is reportedly healthy and ready to make 28-30 starts this season. Just getting Pedro back into the mix would’ve been a nice shot in the arm for the staff, no pun intended. Having Pedro back and adding southpaw Santana, acquired in a January trade with the Twins, is expected to push New York over the top. And the oddsmakers believe it will, posting the Metropolitans as prohibitive favorites to win the National League. Santana basically takes the spot opened up by Tom Glavine’s return to Atlanta.
Maine had an up and down year – up through July and then down the rest of the way when his ERA jumped almost a full run following his last start in July. Perez also watched his ERA inflate from August forward, fattening from 2.84 on July 26 to the 3.56 he showed at season’s end. The fall off for both may have been due to being young and not handling the pressure as well late in the year, or it could have been from having tired arms.
With Santana, Martinez, Maine and Perez 1-4, it leaves just the fifth spot to decide. Orlando Hernandez, who is either 38 or 42 depending on which DOB you believe, is trying to win that spot and should if he’s healthy at the end of March. Tony Armas Jr., in camp on a minor league invite, and Mike Pelfrey are also hoping to land the job. Look for Armas to start the year as the swing man on the staff with Pelfrey opening at Triple-A.
Shortcomings in the rotation hid some problems in the pen, but the Mets’ relief corps was equally for the pitching woes as the starters, and some of that was due to the loss of Duaner Sanchez who re-injured his shoulder last spring after rehabbing it following a July 2006 auto accident. Getting him back and into the mix in front of closer Billy Wagner is critical to this team’s success.
Aaron Heilman and lefty Pedro Feliciano did admirable jobs in Sanchez’ absence last season, and if nothing else the team is a bit deeper in the bullpen than they were a year ago. Competing for the remaining bullpen jobs are Matt Wise, Jorge Sosa, Joe Smith plus left-handers Ricardo Rincon (a non-roster invitee) and Scott Schoeneweis. There were some rumors floating last week about the Mets trying to deal both Sosa and Schoeneweis to open a bullpen slot possibly for Pelfrey.
OFFENSE/DEFENSE
Picked to be the team’s strength in the preseason, the offense followed through with 804 runs (fourth in the NL), 177 HR (fifth), 200 steals (first) a .275 batting average (second) and a .342 on-base mark (third). Minaya left most of that group intact, the only two changes being right field and behind the plate.
Setting the table for the lineup will once again be speedy shortstop Jose Reyes after a 78-steal, 12-HR, 119-run campaign. New York re-signed second baseman Luis Castillo, acquired from Minnesota last July, and Castillo will probably hit second behind Reyes in the order.
The infield corners are stalwarts, with third baseman David Wright solid with the glove and the bat and Carlos Delgado hitting 62 homers and driving in 201 runs the last two seasons with the Mets. There is some concern regarding Delgado’s health, with the slugger coming off surgery on his left wrist and entering camp this spring with a balky hip.
Infield reserves will be decided between Olmedo Saenz, who could be the Opening Day 1B if Delgado remains injured, the versatile Marlon Anderson, Jose Valentin and – Are you ready for this? – Fernando Tatis. If Tatis is playing a lot of third for the Mets this year, don’t count on an October appearance for New York.
Carlos Beltran is in center and should be hitting third in the order, giving the Mets three switch-hitters atop the lineup assuming Castillo bats second behind Reyes. Left field was to be Moises Alou’s this year. But alas, the fragile veteran, who I like to refer to less than affectionately as El Pollo, is getting an early start on his annual list of aches and pains and will be out until at least mid-April with a hernia.
Right field will go to Ryan Church who was acquired along with catcher Brian Schneider from the Nationals in the deal that sent Lastings Milledge to Washington. Given Alou’s present injury and Delgado being slowed, the Mets might want to have Milledge back, warts and all.
Endy Chavez will take Alou’s slot in left in the early going, with Brady Clark and Damion Easley likely filling the reserve OF roles coming out of camp. Ramon Castro will back Schneider up behind the plate. New York might also be trying to acquire another outfielder, using Sosa and Schoeneweis as the bait.
Key Player(s): There will be a lot of folks pointing at Pedro as one of the keys to this team, and he will be important. But having Maine and Perez just repeat their 2007 showings will go a long way. And with the lack of depth on the infield, the only player in the dirt the Mets could afford to lose for a lengthy time is probably Castillo. Alou is already down and even though that has become the norm for him, New York can’t afford to lose Reyes, Wright, Beltran or Delgado for any extended periods.
Futures: The Mets consistently came up with 90+ wins in my simulations, reaching just 82 in a worst-case scenario and winning 90 or more in the other four. But then, they also came up at the 90+ win mark of my sims a year ago only to fall short of the 89½ that was posted at Pinnacle, Bodog and The Greek. This year at The Greek, the total has been pushed up to 93½ with the Over and Under both -110. If the Under slides down to maybe even, I like it at 93½.
Over at 5Dimes, the Mets are -220 in the NL East, and there’s no real fun betting a line like that for me. New York is +275 to take the NL flag and +675 to win it all.
The fall from the NL East lead last September still stings Omar Minaya, Willie Randolph and the Mets, not to mention their fans and those holding futures slips that seemed a sure thing.
It’s been a long winter for the New York Mets and their fans. It’s not just that they blew a sizable lead in the final few weeks and missed the playoffs altogether. It’s that they lost to the Phillies after pooh-poohing on Philadelphia shortstop Jimmy Rollins’ boast before the season that they were the team to beat in the division, not the hyped Mets.
New York moved to 21 games above .500 (83-62) on Sep 12 with a 4-3 win over the Braves who long held a stranglehold on the NL East. That win coupled with a 12-0 thrashing the Phils took at home from the Rockies the same day pushed the Mets to a seven-game lead in the division and the champagne was ordered, probably some really good stuff for owner Fred Wilpon and GM Omar Minaya.
But a funny thing happened on the way to October. New York won just five more games after Sep 12 while losing a dozen times, three of those losses a particularly devastating sweep at home to Philadelphia (Sep 14-16). In those final 17 games it was primarily the pitching that let them down with the offense scoring 99 runs (5.82 rpg) while the opposition was crossing the plate 115 times (6.76 rpg). But a second look shows that New York tallied 13 of those runs in a whitewashing of a rookie-heavy Marlins team on the season’s next-to-last day.
Minaya went to work this winter trying to solve some of the pitching problems, with the big trade to acquire Johan Santana meaning Willie Randolph and the Mets enter 2008 even more hyped than they were a year ago. The good news is, assuming the hype is deserved, there’s already a nice stock of champagne on hand to consume in the celebration.
PITCHING
Pitching, especially the rotation, was supposed to be the Mets’ Achilles last season, and for the most part that analysis was correct. New York finished seventh in the NL with a 4.26 ERA, sixth in both home runs allowed and strikeouts, and a woeful 12th in free passes issued. Injuries to Pedro Martinez – lost for all but five late starts – and Orlando Hernandez played a part in that.
But at the same time, Randolph and pitching coach Rick Peterson also got some nice years out of John Maine and Oliver Perez. Without those two 15-game winners, particularly in the season’s first four months, the Mets wouldn’t have had anything close to a seven-game lead on Sep 12.
Martinez is reportedly healthy and ready to make 28-30 starts this season. Just getting Pedro back into the mix would’ve been a nice shot in the arm for the staff, no pun intended. Having Pedro back and adding southpaw Santana, acquired in a January trade with the Twins, is expected to push New York over the top. And the oddsmakers believe it will, posting the Metropolitans as prohibitive favorites to win the National League. Santana basically takes the spot opened up by Tom Glavine’s return to Atlanta.
Maine had an up and down year – up through July and then down the rest of the way when his ERA jumped almost a full run following his last start in July. Perez also watched his ERA inflate from August forward, fattening from 2.84 on July 26 to the 3.56 he showed at season’s end. The fall off for both may have been due to being young and not handling the pressure as well late in the year, or it could have been from having tired arms.
With Santana, Martinez, Maine and Perez 1-4, it leaves just the fifth spot to decide. Orlando Hernandez, who is either 38 or 42 depending on which DOB you believe, is trying to win that spot and should if he’s healthy at the end of March. Tony Armas Jr., in camp on a minor league invite, and Mike Pelfrey are also hoping to land the job. Look for Armas to start the year as the swing man on the staff with Pelfrey opening at Triple-A.
Shortcomings in the rotation hid some problems in the pen, but the Mets’ relief corps was equally for the pitching woes as the starters, and some of that was due to the loss of Duaner Sanchez who re-injured his shoulder last spring after rehabbing it following a July 2006 auto accident. Getting him back and into the mix in front of closer Billy Wagner is critical to this team’s success.
Aaron Heilman and lefty Pedro Feliciano did admirable jobs in Sanchez’ absence last season, and if nothing else the team is a bit deeper in the bullpen than they were a year ago. Competing for the remaining bullpen jobs are Matt Wise, Jorge Sosa, Joe Smith plus left-handers Ricardo Rincon (a non-roster invitee) and Scott Schoeneweis. There were some rumors floating last week about the Mets trying to deal both Sosa and Schoeneweis to open a bullpen slot possibly for Pelfrey.
OFFENSE/DEFENSE
Picked to be the team’s strength in the preseason, the offense followed through with 804 runs (fourth in the NL), 177 HR (fifth), 200 steals (first) a .275 batting average (second) and a .342 on-base mark (third). Minaya left most of that group intact, the only two changes being right field and behind the plate.
Setting the table for the lineup will once again be speedy shortstop Jose Reyes after a 78-steal, 12-HR, 119-run campaign. New York re-signed second baseman Luis Castillo, acquired from Minnesota last July, and Castillo will probably hit second behind Reyes in the order.
The infield corners are stalwarts, with third baseman David Wright solid with the glove and the bat and Carlos Delgado hitting 62 homers and driving in 201 runs the last two seasons with the Mets. There is some concern regarding Delgado’s health, with the slugger coming off surgery on his left wrist and entering camp this spring with a balky hip.
Infield reserves will be decided between Olmedo Saenz, who could be the Opening Day 1B if Delgado remains injured, the versatile Marlon Anderson, Jose Valentin and – Are you ready for this? – Fernando Tatis. If Tatis is playing a lot of third for the Mets this year, don’t count on an October appearance for New York.
Carlos Beltran is in center and should be hitting third in the order, giving the Mets three switch-hitters atop the lineup assuming Castillo bats second behind Reyes. Left field was to be Moises Alou’s this year. But alas, the fragile veteran, who I like to refer to less than affectionately as El Pollo, is getting an early start on his annual list of aches and pains and will be out until at least mid-April with a hernia.
Right field will go to Ryan Church who was acquired along with catcher Brian Schneider from the Nationals in the deal that sent Lastings Milledge to Washington. Given Alou’s present injury and Delgado being slowed, the Mets might want to have Milledge back, warts and all.
Endy Chavez will take Alou’s slot in left in the early going, with Brady Clark and Damion Easley likely filling the reserve OF roles coming out of camp. Ramon Castro will back Schneider up behind the plate. New York might also be trying to acquire another outfielder, using Sosa and Schoeneweis as the bait.
Key Player(s): There will be a lot of folks pointing at Pedro as one of the keys to this team, and he will be important. But having Maine and Perez just repeat their 2007 showings will go a long way. And with the lack of depth on the infield, the only player in the dirt the Mets could afford to lose for a lengthy time is probably Castillo. Alou is already down and even though that has become the norm for him, New York can’t afford to lose Reyes, Wright, Beltran or Delgado for any extended periods.
Futures: The Mets consistently came up with 90+ wins in my simulations, reaching just 82 in a worst-case scenario and winning 90 or more in the other four. But then, they also came up at the 90+ win mark of my sims a year ago only to fall short of the 89½ that was posted at Pinnacle, Bodog and The Greek. This year at The Greek, the total has been pushed up to 93½ with the Over and Under both -110. If the Under slides down to maybe even, I like it at 93½.
Over at 5Dimes, the Mets are -220 in the NL East, and there’s no real fun betting a line like that for me. New York is +275 to take the NL flag and +675 to win it all.
