Twins taking a step back in AL Central
Minnesota is going to miss Johan Santana and Torii Hunter this season, and they're going to miss the playoffs as well. But the Twins aren't going to just roll over and play dead.
Twins owner Carl Pohlad has been criticized for not spending enough of his own money to keep Minnesota’s marquee players, and that includes this past offseason when Torii Hunter walked via free agency and Johan Santana was dealt away instead of inking the two-time Cy Young winner to a long-term deal. But Twins ownership did pony up an additional $22 million this past week for the new stadium that is set to open in 2010.
With a break here and a break there, that should be right on time for this squad to compete again in the AL Central.
GM Bill Smith, with the assistance of former GM Terry Ryan, had to make the tough decisions regarding Hunter and Santana. There’s no doubt that losing the two is going to hurt a little. But the team Ron Gardenhire has to work with on the field isn’t as bad as many think. Once those two players were history, especially when the Santana trade went down, everyone immediately wrote Minnesota off for this year and considered them to be in a rebuilding era and easy marks for the coming season.
That's not entirely true as the Twins, like other middle-to-small market teams, aren’t so much in rebuilding mode as they are in a constant state of building. Will they win more than they lose and surprise us all by making the playoffs? No, probably not. The Tigers and Indians are both very strong and it would take at least one of them collapsing while everything went right for the Twins.
But don’t look on your favorite team’s schedule and think your guys have an easy series ahead just because Minnesota is up next.
PITCHING
How do you want it, good news first or bad news first? I agree, get the bad news out of the way. The bad news is Johan Santana was traded in the offseason and the Twins will try and replace him with either Livan Hernandez or Phil Humber, or both. The good news is Francisco Liriano has put in his first spring start following Tommy John surgery and this is still a solid bullpen.
Sticking with the bullpen, Gardenhire and pitching coach Rick Anderson have easier decisions to make there than in the rotation this spring. Joe Nathan is back as closer, though it’s possible he could be dangled as trade bait himself come July. He’s averaged 40 saves per season since taking the job in 2004, tossing in a 1.94 ERA and a 4.43 K/BB ratio to boot.
Setting him up should be Pat Neshek, Matt Guerrier, Juan Rincon and left-hander Dennys Reyes. Neshek had some minor arm trouble by season’s end, understandable considering he was used in 74 of the team’s first 149 games. His ERA jumped almost a run over his last 14 appearances, but reported to camp feeling 100%. He would seem the heir apparent to close if Nathan is dealt.
Rincon had a poor season and was bothered by some injury issues as well as off-the-field problems. But this is his year to shine with free agency eligibility coming up, so I look for a rebound from him. If he does get off to a good start in the first half, he is another candidate to be dealt.
Filling out the bullpen could be left-handed non-roster invitee Randy Keisler, fellow southpaw Carmen Cali and right-hander Jesse Crain who is off shoulder surgery and appears healthy so far this spring.
Coming into camp, Gardenhire already had four names inked into the rotation with a fight for the fifth slot his only decision to make. Or so it seemed. Some outstanding work so far by some of the young arms battling for the fifth slot is making the job tougher on Gardenhire now.
Liriano is going to be there assuming his elbow is ready to go. I would expect to see him on a strict pitch count to at least open the season, with no more than 80-90 tosses per start until late-April. Joining him in the rotation will be Livan Hernandez, Boof Bonser and Scott Baker. Hernandez is just a one-year rental, and maybe not even that. He’s the type of veteran that might also be in demand come July if he’s shown anything up to that point.
This will be the season Twins management expects to see just what Bonser and Baker have. Bonser reportedly showed up in camp 20 pounds lighter and ready to make a statement this season while Baker made some great strides last season while going 9-9 with a 4.26 ERA, more than two runs lower than his 2006 stat.
Kevin Slowey appeared to be the favorite for the fifth starting spot coming into camp, but a couple of poor outings this spring along with some excellent showings by left-hander Glen Perkins and right-hander Nick Blackburn have pushed them ahead of Slowey at this point. Plus the Twins need to think about what they’re going to do with Humber, one of the key pieces they received from the Mets in the Santana deal. My guess is both Humber and Blackburn start the year at Triple-A.
OFFENSE/DEFENSE
I really like this offense, assuming Gardenhire and hitting coach Joe Vavra can get a full year out of Joe Mauer. The Minnesota backstop missed a lot of action last season with numerous injuries, and having him fuel the offense from somewhere near the top of the order is going to be imperative.
Justin Morneau, of course, is one of the primary beneficiaries of having Mauer in the lineup, and the 2006 AL MVP will be back in the cleanup slot and at first base this year. But he will have a brand new group of infielders to get to know. Brendan Harris will take over at second and definitely provides more pop in his bat than Luis Castillo.
Astros fans will recognize the left side of the infield as Adam Everett and Mike Lamb will occupy shortstop and third base respectively. Everett is noted by many as the best defensive shortstop in the majors right now, but has struggled to provide much offense over the years. Lamb is never going to be confused with Brooks Robinson when it comes to his glove work at the hot corner, but he does have a nice bat that should fit in nice with this team.
Infield backup candidates are Nick Punto, Alexi Casilla and Brian Buscher.
The outfield will also be filled by some new names with Michael Cuddyer the only incumbent in right. The eventual outcome in center will decide the rest of the makeup. Minnesota hopes that young Carlos Gomez, the biggest return from New York in the Santana trade, is ready to play at the major league level. He’s got solid speed, swiping 141 bases over the course of 338 minor league games. But just expecting him to take on the center field job in the bigs is asking a lot of the 22-year-old; expecting him to handle the leadoff role as well might be asking too much, at least to start. Jason Pridie and Denard Span are both in camp to battle Gomez for the CF job.
The Twins also picked up Delmon Young in the winter from Tampa – landing 2B Harris as well in the deal – for starting pitcher Matt Garza. This guy has the potential to be a perennial All-Star and make Minnesota fans forget all about Hunter. Young is penciled in for left field but could move to center if Gomez doesn’t claim the job this spring. If that’s the case, Craig Monroe would be the left fielder.
Jason Kubel should get the majority of the DH time and could also see some action in left field.
Key Player(s): If we assume Liriano is healthy and will make his 30 or so starts, then the difference between this team competing at or near the .500 mark and possibly losing 90 games will be Baker and Bonser in the rotation. Plus, as mentioned, the Twins need Mauer’s bat in the lineup 130+ games.
Futures: The Greek set their win total break at 72½, but priced the Over at an inflated -140 which is a little too stiff for my tightwad ways even though I do like them to exceed that figure. In the five sims I ran, Minnesota only went under 72 one time. I’m picking something in the 75-77 win range for the team in 2008.
Other futures include 5Dimes’ odds that put the Twins at +1600 to win the AL Central, +3500 to win the AL and +6600 to take home the franchise’s third World Series Championship since moving to the Land of 10,000 Lakes in 1961.
Minnesota is going to miss Johan Santana and Torii Hunter this season, and they're going to miss the playoffs as well. But the Twins aren't going to just roll over and play dead.
Twins owner Carl Pohlad has been criticized for not spending enough of his own money to keep Minnesota’s marquee players, and that includes this past offseason when Torii Hunter walked via free agency and Johan Santana was dealt away instead of inking the two-time Cy Young winner to a long-term deal. But Twins ownership did pony up an additional $22 million this past week for the new stadium that is set to open in 2010.
With a break here and a break there, that should be right on time for this squad to compete again in the AL Central.
GM Bill Smith, with the assistance of former GM Terry Ryan, had to make the tough decisions regarding Hunter and Santana. There’s no doubt that losing the two is going to hurt a little. But the team Ron Gardenhire has to work with on the field isn’t as bad as many think. Once those two players were history, especially when the Santana trade went down, everyone immediately wrote Minnesota off for this year and considered them to be in a rebuilding era and easy marks for the coming season.
That's not entirely true as the Twins, like other middle-to-small market teams, aren’t so much in rebuilding mode as they are in a constant state of building. Will they win more than they lose and surprise us all by making the playoffs? No, probably not. The Tigers and Indians are both very strong and it would take at least one of them collapsing while everything went right for the Twins.
But don’t look on your favorite team’s schedule and think your guys have an easy series ahead just because Minnesota is up next.
PITCHING
How do you want it, good news first or bad news first? I agree, get the bad news out of the way. The bad news is Johan Santana was traded in the offseason and the Twins will try and replace him with either Livan Hernandez or Phil Humber, or both. The good news is Francisco Liriano has put in his first spring start following Tommy John surgery and this is still a solid bullpen.
Sticking with the bullpen, Gardenhire and pitching coach Rick Anderson have easier decisions to make there than in the rotation this spring. Joe Nathan is back as closer, though it’s possible he could be dangled as trade bait himself come July. He’s averaged 40 saves per season since taking the job in 2004, tossing in a 1.94 ERA and a 4.43 K/BB ratio to boot.
Setting him up should be Pat Neshek, Matt Guerrier, Juan Rincon and left-hander Dennys Reyes. Neshek had some minor arm trouble by season’s end, understandable considering he was used in 74 of the team’s first 149 games. His ERA jumped almost a run over his last 14 appearances, but reported to camp feeling 100%. He would seem the heir apparent to close if Nathan is dealt.
Rincon had a poor season and was bothered by some injury issues as well as off-the-field problems. But this is his year to shine with free agency eligibility coming up, so I look for a rebound from him. If he does get off to a good start in the first half, he is another candidate to be dealt.
Filling out the bullpen could be left-handed non-roster invitee Randy Keisler, fellow southpaw Carmen Cali and right-hander Jesse Crain who is off shoulder surgery and appears healthy so far this spring.
Coming into camp, Gardenhire already had four names inked into the rotation with a fight for the fifth slot his only decision to make. Or so it seemed. Some outstanding work so far by some of the young arms battling for the fifth slot is making the job tougher on Gardenhire now.
Liriano is going to be there assuming his elbow is ready to go. I would expect to see him on a strict pitch count to at least open the season, with no more than 80-90 tosses per start until late-April. Joining him in the rotation will be Livan Hernandez, Boof Bonser and Scott Baker. Hernandez is just a one-year rental, and maybe not even that. He’s the type of veteran that might also be in demand come July if he’s shown anything up to that point.
This will be the season Twins management expects to see just what Bonser and Baker have. Bonser reportedly showed up in camp 20 pounds lighter and ready to make a statement this season while Baker made some great strides last season while going 9-9 with a 4.26 ERA, more than two runs lower than his 2006 stat.
Kevin Slowey appeared to be the favorite for the fifth starting spot coming into camp, but a couple of poor outings this spring along with some excellent showings by left-hander Glen Perkins and right-hander Nick Blackburn have pushed them ahead of Slowey at this point. Plus the Twins need to think about what they’re going to do with Humber, one of the key pieces they received from the Mets in the Santana deal. My guess is both Humber and Blackburn start the year at Triple-A.
OFFENSE/DEFENSE
I really like this offense, assuming Gardenhire and hitting coach Joe Vavra can get a full year out of Joe Mauer. The Minnesota backstop missed a lot of action last season with numerous injuries, and having him fuel the offense from somewhere near the top of the order is going to be imperative.
Justin Morneau, of course, is one of the primary beneficiaries of having Mauer in the lineup, and the 2006 AL MVP will be back in the cleanup slot and at first base this year. But he will have a brand new group of infielders to get to know. Brendan Harris will take over at second and definitely provides more pop in his bat than Luis Castillo.
Astros fans will recognize the left side of the infield as Adam Everett and Mike Lamb will occupy shortstop and third base respectively. Everett is noted by many as the best defensive shortstop in the majors right now, but has struggled to provide much offense over the years. Lamb is never going to be confused with Brooks Robinson when it comes to his glove work at the hot corner, but he does have a nice bat that should fit in nice with this team.
Infield backup candidates are Nick Punto, Alexi Casilla and Brian Buscher.
The outfield will also be filled by some new names with Michael Cuddyer the only incumbent in right. The eventual outcome in center will decide the rest of the makeup. Minnesota hopes that young Carlos Gomez, the biggest return from New York in the Santana trade, is ready to play at the major league level. He’s got solid speed, swiping 141 bases over the course of 338 minor league games. But just expecting him to take on the center field job in the bigs is asking a lot of the 22-year-old; expecting him to handle the leadoff role as well might be asking too much, at least to start. Jason Pridie and Denard Span are both in camp to battle Gomez for the CF job.
The Twins also picked up Delmon Young in the winter from Tampa – landing 2B Harris as well in the deal – for starting pitcher Matt Garza. This guy has the potential to be a perennial All-Star and make Minnesota fans forget all about Hunter. Young is penciled in for left field but could move to center if Gomez doesn’t claim the job this spring. If that’s the case, Craig Monroe would be the left fielder.
Jason Kubel should get the majority of the DH time and could also see some action in left field.
Key Player(s): If we assume Liriano is healthy and will make his 30 or so starts, then the difference between this team competing at or near the .500 mark and possibly losing 90 games will be Baker and Bonser in the rotation. Plus, as mentioned, the Twins need Mauer’s bat in the lineup 130+ games.
Futures: The Greek set their win total break at 72½, but priced the Over at an inflated -140 which is a little too stiff for my tightwad ways even though I do like them to exceed that figure. In the five sims I ran, Minnesota only went under 72 one time. I’m picking something in the 75-77 win range for the team in 2008.
Other futures include 5Dimes’ odds that put the Twins at +1600 to win the AL Central, +3500 to win the AL and +6600 to take home the franchise’s third World Series Championship since moving to the Land of 10,000 Lakes in 1961.