Royals ride AL Central caboose again
A franchise that rose from nothing to prominence quickly in its early days, the Kansas City Royals continue their rebuilding under the ownership of the Glass Family and GM Dayton Moore.
It’s been almost 20 years since this once proud franchise put together consecutive winning seasons. Since they went 92-70 in 1989, Kansas City has in fact only had three winning campaigns total – 82-80 in 1991, 84-78 in 1993 and 83-79 in 2003. And they won’t add a fourth season in 2008.
You know times are bad when a franchise celebrates its first season not to lose 100 games in three years as the Royals did last year. After hitting the 100-loss plateau from 2004-06, KC improved to 69-93 last season thanks in large part to an improved pitching staff. However, the improvement wasn’t enough for Buddy Bell to stick around as manager, and the reins have been turned over to Trey Hillman for 2008.
Hillman doesn’t bring a lot of name recognition for the average fan or bettor, but he is well-seasoned in the game having spent time managing in the minors for the Yankees and serving in player development and scouting roles for the Indians and Rangers. Hillman also managed in Japan, leading the Nippon Ham Fighters to consecutive Pacific League titles (2006-07) and winning it all in ’06.
Hillman and GM Dayton Moore have an incredibly tough job at hand trying to turn the Royals around and become playoff contenders instead of players for the top pick in each June draft. They may never really become perennial contenders in Kansas City again, but the pair is more than capable of bringing this franchise back from the depths they’ve been stuck.
PITCHING
As I mentioned, it was a strong improvement on the hill that helped the Royals improve by seven games from 2006 to 2007. In ’06, KC ranked dead last in the AL with a 5.65 ERA and 637 walks issued, plus next-to-last serving up 213 round-trippers. Royals arms lopped more than a run off their ERA in 2007, finishing seventh in the American League at 4.48, issued over 100 fewer walks (520) to finish seventh in that category as well, and allowed 45 less homers (168).
Gil Meche, who many criticized KC for signing, and Brian Bannister, acquired in a trade from the Mets in Dec 2006, aren’t going to rank high on any list of teams with the best 1-2 rotation punch. But the pair of right-handers do provide the Royals with something greater than Mark Redman, Runelvys Hernandez, Darrell May, Jose Lima, well, you get the picture.
Now, if Kansas City can just find some depth to the rotation, they might see another 5-7 game improvement in 2008. It would appear that Zach Greinke and Brett Tomko will slot in behind Meche and Bannister this year. Greinke showed solid improvement last year bouncing between the rotation and the pen. Tomko, who will be 35 in early April, will be given a lot of leeway to claim a rotation spot, but the Royals have a long list of other possible starters in camp, so the job isn’t Tomko’s yet despite signing for a guaranteed $3 million.
With four right-handers at the top of the chart for now, the ideal fifth starter would be one of three left-handers vying for the job: John Bale, Mike Maroth and Jorge de la Rosa. Two other non-roster invitees in camp are Hideo Nomo and Brian Lawrence, both long shots to say the least. Luke Hudson is coming back from surgery last June and will likely be held back this spring, meaning he’s a candidate for a call-up if and when needed. Kyle Davies, picked up from Moore’s old club in Atlanta for Octavio Dotel last summer, could sneak into the fifth starter’s role after a decent winter league showing.
One youngster hoping to pitch his way into the starting mix is Luke Hochevar, the No. 1 overall pick out of Tennessee in 2006. In most organizations, Hochevar would be given an outing or two this spring them packed off to minor league camp and readied for a Triple-A role to start the year. However, Moore and Hillman are reportedly ready to consider Hochevar for a middle relief role this year to expose him to big league hitting without risking him throwing too many innings.
Another huge component in the pitching stats last year was a vastly improved bullpen. Joakim Soria, a Rule V pick from San Diego in Dec 2006, eventually took over closer duties, tossing 69 frames with a 2.48 ERA and 0.94 WHIP while whiffing 75 hitters. Left-hander Jimmy Gobble will fill the specialist role with Joel Peralta getting some setup work.
Yasuhiko Yabuta, signed from Japan in the offseason, will also see action in the seventh and eighth innings, a role he was familiar with in Japan the last three years. Ryan Z. Braun leads a list of candidates to fill out the rest of the bullpen, a list that should also include Leo Nuñez and some of the arms that fail to win a starting job.
OFFENSE/DEFENSE
If the offense had improved as much as the pitching last season, the Royals could’ve reached the mid-70s in the win column. As it was, their hitters actually took a step back from 2006, scoring more than 50 fewer runs, banging 22 less homers and watching their team OPS dip from a sickly .743 in 2006 to a near-fatal .710 in 2007.
Kansas City at least addressed the power shortage by inking outfielder Jose Guillen in the winter. Guillen will play right and hit in the cleanup slot after banging 23 taters and driving home 99 runs with a .290 average last year for the Mariners. Well, Guillen will eventually hit in the cleanup spot of the order, but not until the Royals’ 13th game of the season since he will be serving a 15-day suspension to start the year for a drug violation.
David DeJesus will bat leadoff and be in center with Mark Teahen in left and hitting third. The fourth outfielder’s job should go to fleet-footed Joey Gathright, and with only Shane Costa and Justin Huber behind him, there isn’t much outfield depth if one of the starters goes down or, in the case of Guillen, has to sit for being a bad boy.
Depth is also going to be a problem on the infield, with the exception of first base. Ross Gload is listed as the starting first sacker, though I suspect by season’s end the majority of the playing time will be going to Ryan Shealy. Billy Butler, who will never be mistaken for a Gold Glover down at first, will DH the majority of the time after a nice first year in the bigs batting .292 with eight bombs and 52 RBI in 92 games.
Mark Grudzielanek will man second base and likely bat second with Tony Peña his double play partner at short. Over at the hot corner will be Alex Gordon, the second overall pick in the 2005 draft. After ripping through the minors in his only full season on the farm at Double-A Wichita in 2006, Gordon’s numbers fell off as one might expect in his taste of major league life. One should also expect those numbers to climb this year and in coming seasons.
John Buck, who led the squad with 18 homers in 2007, is back as the No. 1 backstop, but will be pushed by free agent acquisition Miguel Olivo. Buck improved in a lot of areas last year, but will need to push his average up 30 points or more if he ever wants to fulfill his potential.
Key Player(s): Meche will have to continue to earn his salary in this rotation and lead by example, while Bannister continues to develop and Greinke finally finds consistency as a starting pitcher. The bullpen, at least the top 3-4 arms, should be fine. Where KC would really like to see improvement is on offense, and they should advance at the plate as Gordon, Teahen and Butler gain experience. This is where Guillen could be the most valuable by providing some added pop to what has been a pop-less lineup.
Futures: The folks at 5Dimes list Kansas City at +5500 in their division, +11500 in the AL and +20000 to win the World Series. The only team they seem to think less of this year is Baltimore. Over at The Greek, the current break in win totals is set at 71½, with the Under priced at +120 which would seem to hold some value to me. My sims came out 63, 66, 66, 68, 73, a very consistent span and making that Under at The Greek worthy of consideration.
A franchise that rose from nothing to prominence quickly in its early days, the Kansas City Royals continue their rebuilding under the ownership of the Glass Family and GM Dayton Moore.
It’s been almost 20 years since this once proud franchise put together consecutive winning seasons. Since they went 92-70 in 1989, Kansas City has in fact only had three winning campaigns total – 82-80 in 1991, 84-78 in 1993 and 83-79 in 2003. And they won’t add a fourth season in 2008.
You know times are bad when a franchise celebrates its first season not to lose 100 games in three years as the Royals did last year. After hitting the 100-loss plateau from 2004-06, KC improved to 69-93 last season thanks in large part to an improved pitching staff. However, the improvement wasn’t enough for Buddy Bell to stick around as manager, and the reins have been turned over to Trey Hillman for 2008.
Hillman doesn’t bring a lot of name recognition for the average fan or bettor, but he is well-seasoned in the game having spent time managing in the minors for the Yankees and serving in player development and scouting roles for the Indians and Rangers. Hillman also managed in Japan, leading the Nippon Ham Fighters to consecutive Pacific League titles (2006-07) and winning it all in ’06.
Hillman and GM Dayton Moore have an incredibly tough job at hand trying to turn the Royals around and become playoff contenders instead of players for the top pick in each June draft. They may never really become perennial contenders in Kansas City again, but the pair is more than capable of bringing this franchise back from the depths they’ve been stuck.
PITCHING
As I mentioned, it was a strong improvement on the hill that helped the Royals improve by seven games from 2006 to 2007. In ’06, KC ranked dead last in the AL with a 5.65 ERA and 637 walks issued, plus next-to-last serving up 213 round-trippers. Royals arms lopped more than a run off their ERA in 2007, finishing seventh in the American League at 4.48, issued over 100 fewer walks (520) to finish seventh in that category as well, and allowed 45 less homers (168).
Gil Meche, who many criticized KC for signing, and Brian Bannister, acquired in a trade from the Mets in Dec 2006, aren’t going to rank high on any list of teams with the best 1-2 rotation punch. But the pair of right-handers do provide the Royals with something greater than Mark Redman, Runelvys Hernandez, Darrell May, Jose Lima, well, you get the picture.
Now, if Kansas City can just find some depth to the rotation, they might see another 5-7 game improvement in 2008. It would appear that Zach Greinke and Brett Tomko will slot in behind Meche and Bannister this year. Greinke showed solid improvement last year bouncing between the rotation and the pen. Tomko, who will be 35 in early April, will be given a lot of leeway to claim a rotation spot, but the Royals have a long list of other possible starters in camp, so the job isn’t Tomko’s yet despite signing for a guaranteed $3 million.
With four right-handers at the top of the chart for now, the ideal fifth starter would be one of three left-handers vying for the job: John Bale, Mike Maroth and Jorge de la Rosa. Two other non-roster invitees in camp are Hideo Nomo and Brian Lawrence, both long shots to say the least. Luke Hudson is coming back from surgery last June and will likely be held back this spring, meaning he’s a candidate for a call-up if and when needed. Kyle Davies, picked up from Moore’s old club in Atlanta for Octavio Dotel last summer, could sneak into the fifth starter’s role after a decent winter league showing.
One youngster hoping to pitch his way into the starting mix is Luke Hochevar, the No. 1 overall pick out of Tennessee in 2006. In most organizations, Hochevar would be given an outing or two this spring them packed off to minor league camp and readied for a Triple-A role to start the year. However, Moore and Hillman are reportedly ready to consider Hochevar for a middle relief role this year to expose him to big league hitting without risking him throwing too many innings.
Another huge component in the pitching stats last year was a vastly improved bullpen. Joakim Soria, a Rule V pick from San Diego in Dec 2006, eventually took over closer duties, tossing 69 frames with a 2.48 ERA and 0.94 WHIP while whiffing 75 hitters. Left-hander Jimmy Gobble will fill the specialist role with Joel Peralta getting some setup work.
Yasuhiko Yabuta, signed from Japan in the offseason, will also see action in the seventh and eighth innings, a role he was familiar with in Japan the last three years. Ryan Z. Braun leads a list of candidates to fill out the rest of the bullpen, a list that should also include Leo Nuñez and some of the arms that fail to win a starting job.
OFFENSE/DEFENSE
If the offense had improved as much as the pitching last season, the Royals could’ve reached the mid-70s in the win column. As it was, their hitters actually took a step back from 2006, scoring more than 50 fewer runs, banging 22 less homers and watching their team OPS dip from a sickly .743 in 2006 to a near-fatal .710 in 2007.
Kansas City at least addressed the power shortage by inking outfielder Jose Guillen in the winter. Guillen will play right and hit in the cleanup slot after banging 23 taters and driving home 99 runs with a .290 average last year for the Mariners. Well, Guillen will eventually hit in the cleanup spot of the order, but not until the Royals’ 13th game of the season since he will be serving a 15-day suspension to start the year for a drug violation.
David DeJesus will bat leadoff and be in center with Mark Teahen in left and hitting third. The fourth outfielder’s job should go to fleet-footed Joey Gathright, and with only Shane Costa and Justin Huber behind him, there isn’t much outfield depth if one of the starters goes down or, in the case of Guillen, has to sit for being a bad boy.
Depth is also going to be a problem on the infield, with the exception of first base. Ross Gload is listed as the starting first sacker, though I suspect by season’s end the majority of the playing time will be going to Ryan Shealy. Billy Butler, who will never be mistaken for a Gold Glover down at first, will DH the majority of the time after a nice first year in the bigs batting .292 with eight bombs and 52 RBI in 92 games.
Mark Grudzielanek will man second base and likely bat second with Tony Peña his double play partner at short. Over at the hot corner will be Alex Gordon, the second overall pick in the 2005 draft. After ripping through the minors in his only full season on the farm at Double-A Wichita in 2006, Gordon’s numbers fell off as one might expect in his taste of major league life. One should also expect those numbers to climb this year and in coming seasons.
John Buck, who led the squad with 18 homers in 2007, is back as the No. 1 backstop, but will be pushed by free agent acquisition Miguel Olivo. Buck improved in a lot of areas last year, but will need to push his average up 30 points or more if he ever wants to fulfill his potential.
Key Player(s): Meche will have to continue to earn his salary in this rotation and lead by example, while Bannister continues to develop and Greinke finally finds consistency as a starting pitcher. The bullpen, at least the top 3-4 arms, should be fine. Where KC would really like to see improvement is on offense, and they should advance at the plate as Gordon, Teahen and Butler gain experience. This is where Guillen could be the most valuable by providing some added pop to what has been a pop-less lineup.
Futures: The folks at 5Dimes list Kansas City at +5500 in their division, +11500 in the AL and +20000 to win the World Series. The only team they seem to think less of this year is Baltimore. Over at The Greek, the current break in win totals is set at 71½, with the Under priced at +120 which would seem to hold some value to me. My sims came out 63, 66, 66, 68, 73, a very consistent span and making that Under at The Greek worthy of consideration.