Wedge, Indians set sights on Series
Welcome to the MLB rollercoaster otherwise known as the Cleveland Indians. Please keep your hands and feet inside the car and do not stand up until the season comes to a stop.
Let’s see, it’s an even-numbered year so that must mean a dive back into the AL Central pack for the Cleveland Indians this season. In three of the four odd-numbered years beginning in 2001, the Tribe posted 91 or more wins. In the three even-numbered seasons since ’01, they’ve failed to reach .500 in the final standings.
Such a trend might appeal to some handicappers who have been known to expound upon tendencies as “Team X is undefeated on Tuesdays following a double-digit cover” and “Team X is 10-4 when playing at home against teams from their own division that are off a home loss of more than five points.” But while it is an interesting trend the Indians find themselves in this year, betting against Cleveland finishing above .500 this time would appear a losing proposition.
One interesting note about the trend is the Indians seem to have won more than they should in 2007 and lost more than they should in 2006. That is if you put much into the Pythagorean W-L numbers. They tied Boston with 96 wins a year ago to lead the majors, but Pythagorean says they should’ve only won 91. In 2006 when they won 78 times, Pythagorean puts their victory total at 89.
Eric Wedge and the Indians stood at triple-break point in the ALCS a year ago, scooting out to a 3-1 lead against the Red Sox before Boston bounced back to win Games 5, 6 and 7 en route to their World Series title. That has undoubtedly been a sore spot in the minds of Cleveland players, management and fans all winter.
The team returns virtually unchanged from the 2007 season and in good health to open Spring Training. And while the virtually unchanged part isn’t always a good thing, the good health bit is.
PITCHING
Besides being in good health, another thing in Wedge’s and the Indians’ favor is one of the best 1-2 punches in the game at the top of their rotation. Left-hander C.C. Sabathia and right-hander Fausto Carmona each won 19 games last season with ERAs of 3.21 and 3.06 respectively.
Slotted in behind that pair are right-handers Jake Westbrook (6-9, 4.32) and Paul Byrd (15-8, 4.59). Westbrook could be a key for this club after missing the first two months last year with an oblique strain. If he is back to ’06 form, it would be huge for the Tribe.
The last spot in the rotation will go to one of three lefties. Cliff Lee has the edge being the most veteran of the group, but he could also be used as trade bait if either Jeremy Sowers or Aaron Laffey has a fine showing this spring. Teams are always on the lookout for southpaws, and a veteran like Lee, who is relatively cheap with two years and about $10 million left on his contract, is surely on the radar screens of several teams.
Down in the bullpen Joe Borowski is back at closer after chalking up 81 saves the past two seasons, 36 with the Marlins in ’06 and 45 with the Indians last year. People are going to point to his 5.07 ERA in 2007 and wonder just how in the world this guy is pitching anywhere, much less closing for a playoff contender such as Cleveland.
The bulk of Borowski’s bloated ERA came in three of his 69 appearances covering less than two innings in ’07. Borowski surrendered six earned runs in a nightmarish outing at Yankee Stadium on April 19, the final three of those runs on a walk-off A-Rod clout. He then allowed four earned runs after retiring the first two A’s hitters in Oakland during another ninth inning meltdown on May 13. And the last implosion came on the Jacobs Field reservation Aug 14 when he surrendered four earnies in the top of the 10th to the Tigers. That’s 14 earned runs In 1.2 innings for those scoring at home, putting Borowski’s ERA at 3.23 on the season when discounting the three games.
Bridging the gap between the starters and Borowski this year should be three solid setup arms. The only major addition to the roster during the winter was Masahide Kobayashi, a 33-year-old veteran from Japan who tallied 227 saves in his JBL career. He will fit in with fellow right-hander Rafael Betancourt, who should be the primary setup arm after recording a 1.47 ERA in 69 games, and lefty Rafael Perez, who is coming off a 1.78 ERA in nearly 61 innings a year ago.
Assuming those four are set, it leaves three relief openings to be fought over this spring between southpaw Aaron Fultz and right-handers Tom Mastny and Jensen Lewis plus several NRI’s in camp vying for a spot on the mound. That list includes Brendan Donnelly, Scott Elarton and Jorge Julio. And by season’s end, we could see Adam Miller called up from the minors to work from the pen.
OFFENSE/DEFENSE
The Indians have power spread throughout the lineup, starting with center fielder and leadoff hitter Grady Sizemore who got into all 162 regular season games for Cleveland for a second straight year in 2007. After poking 53 doubles and 28 homers while batting .290 in 2006, Sizemore saw declines in all three categories in 2007 (34 doubles, 24 HR, .277), but did increase his on-base mark and stolen bases.
Flanking Sizemore in the outfield will be Franklin Gutierrez in right and a David Dellucci/Jason Michaels platoon in left. Gutierrez managed 13 homers in his first full major league season and could be a candidate for 20+ this year. The Dellucci/Michaels platoon a year ago was a disappointment with the pair combining for 11 HR and an on-base percentage not too far over .300.
Victor Martinez will be back behind the plate after a solid 2007 campaign during which he won the Cleveland Triple Crown with a .301 average, 25 HR and 114 RBI. Martinez will also get some time off from the squat position to play a little first and DH.
Speaking of DH, Travis Hafner is coming off a down season following his climb into the charts of the AL’s most feared hitters. After hitting over .300 from 2004-06 and averaging 37.5 homers in 2005-06, Hafner slid to a .266 average and 24 long flies in 2007.
Ryan Garko and Casey Blake will begin the year as the infield corners at first and third respectively. Garko had a fine first-full season in 2007, one that was remarkably consistent in most columns with his 2006 numbers. Blake got off to a fast start in ’07 before tailing off a bit, and this will likely be his walk year as he’s headed to free agency after 2008. With only Andy Marte, who is looking as if he’s not going to figure into Cleveland’s long-term plans, behind him, Blake should be at the hot corner all season while the Tribe hopes that either Wes Hodges or Beau Mills makes a rapid ascent through the minors.
Long criticized for his lack of range at shortstop, Jhonny Peralta still gets the job done and improved from an off-2006 to post 21 HR, 72 RBI and a .270 average a year ago. It looks as if his double play partner at second will be Asdrubal Cabrera who took the job over after being called up in early August.
Infield reserves will include the aforementioned Marte along with Josh Barfield and Jamey Carroll who was part of the Rockies roster the past two seasons and can play all over the infield and outfield.
Key Player(s): Overall I think the bullpen is in pretty good shape, so my pick for the most crucial pitcher is Jake Westbrook who could make it a nasty threesome in the rotation if he can get back into form. And the big stick on offense, Hafner, needs to also get back into the form that he wowed us with in 2004-06.
Futures: BetCris opened their wins futures at 91 and that has since dropped to 90½. Cleveland was +205 to win the AL Central, +800 to take the AL flag and +1400 to win their first World Series since 1948 at BetCris. The Greek’s win totals just came out and they’re at 88½ with the Tribe +165 in their division, +1015 in the AL and +1815 to go all the way.
My simulations came out suggesting the break in wins futures at The Greek is about spot on, with the sims averaging 88 victories meaning a small step back this year for the Tribe who will likely be in the AL Wild Card battle with the likes of the Yankees and Mariners.
Welcome to the MLB rollercoaster otherwise known as the Cleveland Indians. Please keep your hands and feet inside the car and do not stand up until the season comes to a stop.
Let’s see, it’s an even-numbered year so that must mean a dive back into the AL Central pack for the Cleveland Indians this season. In three of the four odd-numbered years beginning in 2001, the Tribe posted 91 or more wins. In the three even-numbered seasons since ’01, they’ve failed to reach .500 in the final standings.
Such a trend might appeal to some handicappers who have been known to expound upon tendencies as “Team X is undefeated on Tuesdays following a double-digit cover” and “Team X is 10-4 when playing at home against teams from their own division that are off a home loss of more than five points.” But while it is an interesting trend the Indians find themselves in this year, betting against Cleveland finishing above .500 this time would appear a losing proposition.
One interesting note about the trend is the Indians seem to have won more than they should in 2007 and lost more than they should in 2006. That is if you put much into the Pythagorean W-L numbers. They tied Boston with 96 wins a year ago to lead the majors, but Pythagorean says they should’ve only won 91. In 2006 when they won 78 times, Pythagorean puts their victory total at 89.
Eric Wedge and the Indians stood at triple-break point in the ALCS a year ago, scooting out to a 3-1 lead against the Red Sox before Boston bounced back to win Games 5, 6 and 7 en route to their World Series title. That has undoubtedly been a sore spot in the minds of Cleveland players, management and fans all winter.
The team returns virtually unchanged from the 2007 season and in good health to open Spring Training. And while the virtually unchanged part isn’t always a good thing, the good health bit is.
PITCHING
Besides being in good health, another thing in Wedge’s and the Indians’ favor is one of the best 1-2 punches in the game at the top of their rotation. Left-hander C.C. Sabathia and right-hander Fausto Carmona each won 19 games last season with ERAs of 3.21 and 3.06 respectively.
Slotted in behind that pair are right-handers Jake Westbrook (6-9, 4.32) and Paul Byrd (15-8, 4.59). Westbrook could be a key for this club after missing the first two months last year with an oblique strain. If he is back to ’06 form, it would be huge for the Tribe.
The last spot in the rotation will go to one of three lefties. Cliff Lee has the edge being the most veteran of the group, but he could also be used as trade bait if either Jeremy Sowers or Aaron Laffey has a fine showing this spring. Teams are always on the lookout for southpaws, and a veteran like Lee, who is relatively cheap with two years and about $10 million left on his contract, is surely on the radar screens of several teams.
Down in the bullpen Joe Borowski is back at closer after chalking up 81 saves the past two seasons, 36 with the Marlins in ’06 and 45 with the Indians last year. People are going to point to his 5.07 ERA in 2007 and wonder just how in the world this guy is pitching anywhere, much less closing for a playoff contender such as Cleveland.
The bulk of Borowski’s bloated ERA came in three of his 69 appearances covering less than two innings in ’07. Borowski surrendered six earned runs in a nightmarish outing at Yankee Stadium on April 19, the final three of those runs on a walk-off A-Rod clout. He then allowed four earned runs after retiring the first two A’s hitters in Oakland during another ninth inning meltdown on May 13. And the last implosion came on the Jacobs Field reservation Aug 14 when he surrendered four earnies in the top of the 10th to the Tigers. That’s 14 earned runs In 1.2 innings for those scoring at home, putting Borowski’s ERA at 3.23 on the season when discounting the three games.
Bridging the gap between the starters and Borowski this year should be three solid setup arms. The only major addition to the roster during the winter was Masahide Kobayashi, a 33-year-old veteran from Japan who tallied 227 saves in his JBL career. He will fit in with fellow right-hander Rafael Betancourt, who should be the primary setup arm after recording a 1.47 ERA in 69 games, and lefty Rafael Perez, who is coming off a 1.78 ERA in nearly 61 innings a year ago.
Assuming those four are set, it leaves three relief openings to be fought over this spring between southpaw Aaron Fultz and right-handers Tom Mastny and Jensen Lewis plus several NRI’s in camp vying for a spot on the mound. That list includes Brendan Donnelly, Scott Elarton and Jorge Julio. And by season’s end, we could see Adam Miller called up from the minors to work from the pen.
OFFENSE/DEFENSE
The Indians have power spread throughout the lineup, starting with center fielder and leadoff hitter Grady Sizemore who got into all 162 regular season games for Cleveland for a second straight year in 2007. After poking 53 doubles and 28 homers while batting .290 in 2006, Sizemore saw declines in all three categories in 2007 (34 doubles, 24 HR, .277), but did increase his on-base mark and stolen bases.
Flanking Sizemore in the outfield will be Franklin Gutierrez in right and a David Dellucci/Jason Michaels platoon in left. Gutierrez managed 13 homers in his first full major league season and could be a candidate for 20+ this year. The Dellucci/Michaels platoon a year ago was a disappointment with the pair combining for 11 HR and an on-base percentage not too far over .300.
Victor Martinez will be back behind the plate after a solid 2007 campaign during which he won the Cleveland Triple Crown with a .301 average, 25 HR and 114 RBI. Martinez will also get some time off from the squat position to play a little first and DH.
Speaking of DH, Travis Hafner is coming off a down season following his climb into the charts of the AL’s most feared hitters. After hitting over .300 from 2004-06 and averaging 37.5 homers in 2005-06, Hafner slid to a .266 average and 24 long flies in 2007.
Ryan Garko and Casey Blake will begin the year as the infield corners at first and third respectively. Garko had a fine first-full season in 2007, one that was remarkably consistent in most columns with his 2006 numbers. Blake got off to a fast start in ’07 before tailing off a bit, and this will likely be his walk year as he’s headed to free agency after 2008. With only Andy Marte, who is looking as if he’s not going to figure into Cleveland’s long-term plans, behind him, Blake should be at the hot corner all season while the Tribe hopes that either Wes Hodges or Beau Mills makes a rapid ascent through the minors.
Long criticized for his lack of range at shortstop, Jhonny Peralta still gets the job done and improved from an off-2006 to post 21 HR, 72 RBI and a .270 average a year ago. It looks as if his double play partner at second will be Asdrubal Cabrera who took the job over after being called up in early August.
Infield reserves will include the aforementioned Marte along with Josh Barfield and Jamey Carroll who was part of the Rockies roster the past two seasons and can play all over the infield and outfield.
Key Player(s): Overall I think the bullpen is in pretty good shape, so my pick for the most crucial pitcher is Jake Westbrook who could make it a nasty threesome in the rotation if he can get back into form. And the big stick on offense, Hafner, needs to also get back into the form that he wowed us with in 2004-06.
Futures: BetCris opened their wins futures at 91 and that has since dropped to 90½. Cleveland was +205 to win the AL Central, +800 to take the AL flag and +1400 to win their first World Series since 1948 at BetCris. The Greek’s win totals just came out and they’re at 88½ with the Tribe +165 in their division, +1015 in the AL and +1815 to go all the way.
My simulations came out suggesting the break in wins futures at The Greek is about spot on, with the sims averaging 88 victories meaning a small step back this year for the Tribe who will likely be in the AL Wild Card battle with the likes of the Yankees and Mariners.