Reds turn to Dusty to right ship
After seven straight losing seasons, Cincinnati hired veteran manager Dusty Baker in the offseason to stop the bleeding and put baseball’s oldest franchise back on a winning track.
Following up on a 90-loss season, the franchise’s second worst mark since 1984, the Reds made just two major changes in the winter. And on the surface, the two changes wouldn’t seem to be enough to turn the team around in a single season. Of the two new faces brought in, one isn’t expected to pitch much more than about 60 innings and the other isn’t expected to throw a single pitch nor take a single at bat.
But Cincinnati is counting on new manager Dusty Baker and new closer Francisco Cordero to lift a team from fifth in the six-team NL Central into playoff contenders this year.
A lot will be made about the Reds playing in what is generally regarded as the weakest division in baseball. Baker, in fact, even said as much when he noted returning to the NL Central was part of the attraction when GM Wayne Krivsky offered him the job.
“Nobody’s great,” the managerial veteran of 14 seasons said. “(But) everybody’s pretty good.”
One also has to think that getting a chance to see his former team, the Chicago Cubs, regularly also might have provided some incentive for Baker who enters the season with 1,162 regular season wins as a big league field boss, tied for 38th all-time.
PITCHING
The mound has received most of the blame for Cincinnati’s recent woes, and rightfully so. Reds pitchers finished dead last in the NL in 2005 with a 5.45 ERA, improved to a 4.94 mark in 2006 them plummeted to 15th in the Senior Circuit last season with a 5.27 mark. Part of that is the smaller Great American Ball Park they’ve played in since 2003; their lowest ERA at home since the new stadium opened was 5.25 in 2004.
Though the rotation has been the biggest contributor to the bloated ERA, the lack of a truly dominant closer has also hurt. Enter Cordero who has picked up 60 saves in 94 games since moving to the NL midway through the 2006 season. CoCo is coming off a 44 save, 2.98 campaign last year with the Brewers, tallying 86 strikeouts against just 18 walks and four long balls in his 63-plus innings.
The addition of Cordero should have a trickle down effect in the bullpen, shifting David Weathers – the primary closer the past three seasons with 60 saves total since 2005, more than half of those in 2007 – back to setup. Who pitches in front of Weathers is the big question. Several left-handed veterans are in camp, from Mike Stanton to Scott Sauerbeck to Kent Mercker who is giving it one last try after Tommy John surgery in Aug 2006. Bill Bray and Jon Coutlangus are two younger southpaws trying to catch on, though Bray has always had health problems and came to came with a sore shoulder after having an appendectomy in January, according to RotoWorld.
Jeremy Affeldt is another left-handed possibility for the bullpen, though Cincinnati will give him a look as a starter after signing him to a one-year, $3 million contract this winter. The two most promising right-handed relievers right now are Jared Burton, a Rule V pick a year ago from Oakland, and Brad Salmon, plus Todd Coffey is back.
One reason Affeldt is getting a look-see as a starter is he appears to be the only left-handed possibility for the rotation. Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo are set in the 1-2 slots of the order, with Harang probably the best-kept secret in the National League the past two seasons.
Cincinnati would love to see Homer Bailey step in with a fine spring and secure one of the other spots in the rotation. The former first-rounder – No. 7 overall in 2004 – out of LaGrange, TX, posted mixed results in his nine starts last year, but nobody doubts his stuff.
Recently signed Josh Fogg, of late with the Colorado Rockies probably will get another starting slot, leaving a fight for just one starter’s job between Affeldt, Matt Belisle and Edinson Volquez who arrived from Texas in the trade that sent Josh Hamilton to the Rangers.
OFFENSE/DEFENSE
When you check out the Reds’ offensive numbers from a year ago, it’s hard to not look at the power stats first. Cincinnati belted 204 round trippers, third-most in the NL, and the lineup featured eight regulars with 10+ long balls. But the rest of the stats were very pedestrian – seventh in runs scored, eighth in batting average, eighth in on-base percentage and eighth in stolen bases.
It’s also difficult to look at the regular lineup and see Ken Griffey Jr.’s name without thinking DL move. Griffey actually stayed healthy last year, getting into 144 games, the most he’s played in a single season since appearing in 145 contests in 2000, his first with the Reds.
The Kid, who turned 38 last November, will be back in right and, hopefully, get another 140+ games in this season. Just seven flies short of 600 for his career, his left field counterpart will once again be Adam Dunn who led the team with 40 bombs and 106 RBI, the third-straight season he nailed 40-HR exactly and the fourth consecutive year with 40 or more homers.
Center field is supposed to be an all-out competition this spring between Norris Hopper, Ryan Freel and Jay Bruce. While Hopper and Freel add the element of speed to Cincy’s power attack, it’s Bruce who is budding star on the team. If Bruce doesn’t wow Dusty this spring, the Reds would likely ticket him for Triple-A instead of sitting their first-round pick in 2005 on the bench in the majors.
At least three-quarters of the infield is set, with Brandon Phillips at second, Alex Gonzalez at short and Edwin Encarnacion at third. Phillips is off a super 30-30 season, leading the club with 107 runs scored and placing second ahead of Griffey with 94 RBI. Gonzalez, who missed about 50 games last year due mostly to an ill child, is a steady glove and still managed 16 homers in less than 400 AB.
Encarnacion seemed to find himself the second half of the season after a very slow start that had him hitting under .200 in April. Across the diamond from Encarnacion at first base should be Joey Votto who slapped 22 homers and hit .294 for Cincinnati’s Triple-A team in Louisville, then added four more in 24 games for the Reds in September.
Dave Ross and Javier Valentin are the top two catchers. Ross did smack 17 home runs a year ago, but barely made it over the Mendoza Line with a .203 batting average.
Jeff Keppinger and Scott Hatteberg should stick as backup infielders, with Jolbert Cabrera another possibility along with Freel’s versatility.
Key Player(s): The relievers in front of Cordero will be very critical to the team’s success in 2008. But taking leads into the seventh inning and beyond will be the key. Some starter besides Harang has to step up, and at least two of the arms in the rotation other than Harang have to have big years if Dusty and the Reds are really going to contend this season.
Futures: Right now at 5Dimes, the Reds are +750 to take the NL Central, +3300 to win their 10th NL Pennant, and a whopping +7500 to win their first World Series since 1990. BetCris opened their win totals at 76½ for Cincinnati, and that’s right where the average of my five sims fell, 76. The Reds were one of the most consistent teams in my simulations, ranging from 72 to 82. Personally, I’d like to see that win total shift up or down by a win before laying any money on them either way.
After seven straight losing seasons, Cincinnati hired veteran manager Dusty Baker in the offseason to stop the bleeding and put baseball’s oldest franchise back on a winning track.
Following up on a 90-loss season, the franchise’s second worst mark since 1984, the Reds made just two major changes in the winter. And on the surface, the two changes wouldn’t seem to be enough to turn the team around in a single season. Of the two new faces brought in, one isn’t expected to pitch much more than about 60 innings and the other isn’t expected to throw a single pitch nor take a single at bat.
But Cincinnati is counting on new manager Dusty Baker and new closer Francisco Cordero to lift a team from fifth in the six-team NL Central into playoff contenders this year.
A lot will be made about the Reds playing in what is generally regarded as the weakest division in baseball. Baker, in fact, even said as much when he noted returning to the NL Central was part of the attraction when GM Wayne Krivsky offered him the job.
“Nobody’s great,” the managerial veteran of 14 seasons said. “(But) everybody’s pretty good.”
One also has to think that getting a chance to see his former team, the Chicago Cubs, regularly also might have provided some incentive for Baker who enters the season with 1,162 regular season wins as a big league field boss, tied for 38th all-time.
PITCHING
The mound has received most of the blame for Cincinnati’s recent woes, and rightfully so. Reds pitchers finished dead last in the NL in 2005 with a 5.45 ERA, improved to a 4.94 mark in 2006 them plummeted to 15th in the Senior Circuit last season with a 5.27 mark. Part of that is the smaller Great American Ball Park they’ve played in since 2003; their lowest ERA at home since the new stadium opened was 5.25 in 2004.
Though the rotation has been the biggest contributor to the bloated ERA, the lack of a truly dominant closer has also hurt. Enter Cordero who has picked up 60 saves in 94 games since moving to the NL midway through the 2006 season. CoCo is coming off a 44 save, 2.98 campaign last year with the Brewers, tallying 86 strikeouts against just 18 walks and four long balls in his 63-plus innings.
The addition of Cordero should have a trickle down effect in the bullpen, shifting David Weathers – the primary closer the past three seasons with 60 saves total since 2005, more than half of those in 2007 – back to setup. Who pitches in front of Weathers is the big question. Several left-handed veterans are in camp, from Mike Stanton to Scott Sauerbeck to Kent Mercker who is giving it one last try after Tommy John surgery in Aug 2006. Bill Bray and Jon Coutlangus are two younger southpaws trying to catch on, though Bray has always had health problems and came to came with a sore shoulder after having an appendectomy in January, according to RotoWorld.
Jeremy Affeldt is another left-handed possibility for the bullpen, though Cincinnati will give him a look as a starter after signing him to a one-year, $3 million contract this winter. The two most promising right-handed relievers right now are Jared Burton, a Rule V pick a year ago from Oakland, and Brad Salmon, plus Todd Coffey is back.
One reason Affeldt is getting a look-see as a starter is he appears to be the only left-handed possibility for the rotation. Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo are set in the 1-2 slots of the order, with Harang probably the best-kept secret in the National League the past two seasons.
Cincinnati would love to see Homer Bailey step in with a fine spring and secure one of the other spots in the rotation. The former first-rounder – No. 7 overall in 2004 – out of LaGrange, TX, posted mixed results in his nine starts last year, but nobody doubts his stuff.
Recently signed Josh Fogg, of late with the Colorado Rockies probably will get another starting slot, leaving a fight for just one starter’s job between Affeldt, Matt Belisle and Edinson Volquez who arrived from Texas in the trade that sent Josh Hamilton to the Rangers.
OFFENSE/DEFENSE
When you check out the Reds’ offensive numbers from a year ago, it’s hard to not look at the power stats first. Cincinnati belted 204 round trippers, third-most in the NL, and the lineup featured eight regulars with 10+ long balls. But the rest of the stats were very pedestrian – seventh in runs scored, eighth in batting average, eighth in on-base percentage and eighth in stolen bases.
It’s also difficult to look at the regular lineup and see Ken Griffey Jr.’s name without thinking DL move. Griffey actually stayed healthy last year, getting into 144 games, the most he’s played in a single season since appearing in 145 contests in 2000, his first with the Reds.
The Kid, who turned 38 last November, will be back in right and, hopefully, get another 140+ games in this season. Just seven flies short of 600 for his career, his left field counterpart will once again be Adam Dunn who led the team with 40 bombs and 106 RBI, the third-straight season he nailed 40-HR exactly and the fourth consecutive year with 40 or more homers.
Center field is supposed to be an all-out competition this spring between Norris Hopper, Ryan Freel and Jay Bruce. While Hopper and Freel add the element of speed to Cincy’s power attack, it’s Bruce who is budding star on the team. If Bruce doesn’t wow Dusty this spring, the Reds would likely ticket him for Triple-A instead of sitting their first-round pick in 2005 on the bench in the majors.
At least three-quarters of the infield is set, with Brandon Phillips at second, Alex Gonzalez at short and Edwin Encarnacion at third. Phillips is off a super 30-30 season, leading the club with 107 runs scored and placing second ahead of Griffey with 94 RBI. Gonzalez, who missed about 50 games last year due mostly to an ill child, is a steady glove and still managed 16 homers in less than 400 AB.
Encarnacion seemed to find himself the second half of the season after a very slow start that had him hitting under .200 in April. Across the diamond from Encarnacion at first base should be Joey Votto who slapped 22 homers and hit .294 for Cincinnati’s Triple-A team in Louisville, then added four more in 24 games for the Reds in September.
Dave Ross and Javier Valentin are the top two catchers. Ross did smack 17 home runs a year ago, but barely made it over the Mendoza Line with a .203 batting average.
Jeff Keppinger and Scott Hatteberg should stick as backup infielders, with Jolbert Cabrera another possibility along with Freel’s versatility.
Key Player(s): The relievers in front of Cordero will be very critical to the team’s success in 2008. But taking leads into the seventh inning and beyond will be the key. Some starter besides Harang has to step up, and at least two of the arms in the rotation other than Harang have to have big years if Dusty and the Reds are really going to contend this season.
Futures: Right now at 5Dimes, the Reds are +750 to take the NL Central, +3300 to win their 10th NL Pennant, and a whopping +7500 to win their first World Series since 1990. BetCris opened their win totals at 76½ for Cincinnati, and that’s right where the average of my five sims fell, 76. The Reds were one of the most consistent teams in my simulations, ranging from 72 to 82. Personally, I’d like to see that win total shift up or down by a win before laying any money on them either way.