if they kept Roy...
Think about it:
Shaun Marcum: 13-8 in 31 game starts
Ricky Romero: 14-9 in 32 game starts
Brandon Morrow: 10-7 in 26 game starts
Brett Cecil: 15-7 in 28 game starts
Total: 52-31
Of Shaun Marcum's 31 game starts, the Jays were: 17-14
Of Rickey Romero's 32 game starts, the Jays were: 18-14
Of Brandon Morrow's 26 game starts, the Jays were: 15-11
Of Brett Cecil's 28 game starts, the Jays were: 18-10
Total: 68-49
The rest of Toronto's 2010 starters:
Marc Rzepczynski 12 game starts allowing for a: 5-7
Brian Tallet 5 game starts allowing for a: 1-4
Jesse Litsch 9 game starts allowing for a: 2-7
Dana Eveland 9 game starts allowing for a: 4-5
Brad Mills 3 game starts allowing for a: 3-0
Shawn Hill 4 game starts allowing for a: 2-2
Kyle Drabek 3 game starts allowing for a: 0-3
Total: 17-28
That gives a total of 69 wins and 59 loses for a total of 128 games by starters.
That means 16 games were won and 17 games were lost by relief pitchers.
That gives the Jays a total record of: 85-76.
Now here is where MAYBE keeping Roy Halladay would have put the Jays into post season play.
So we keep Marcum, Romero, Morrow, and Cecil games exactly as is, giving the Jays a record of: 68-49.
Then we cut the 5th man circus out and use Roy.(Obviously Roy would be #1 starter and the other starters would bump down) but that gives the Jays a total of 21 wins and 10 losses in 33 starts.
This then gives the Jays a record of: 74-41 in 129 games by starters.
We then add the Jays total record of wins/loses where Marcum, Romero, Morrow, or Cecil started to Roys wins/loses: 68+21-49+10
This gives the Blue Jays a record of: 89-59 in 148.
Now adding Roy into the rotation provides 33 starts but the 5th rotation circus of the Blue Jays had 45 starts. Therefore the Blue Jays staff must pick up 12 starts. If the Blue Jays could win 6 of these games that puts them at a record of:
95-65.
Now Roy Halladay had two games in which he received a no decision. Philadelphia won 1 and lost 1 out of these two games. We have three options here: The Jays win both games, the Jays lose both games, or the Jays win 1 game and lose the other game.
With 2 wins we get a final record of: 97-65
With 2 losses we get a final record of: 95-67
With 1 win, 1 loss we get a final record of: 96-68
As you can see, if the Blue Jays kept Roy Halladay for the 2010 season, they very well could have made play offs. However there are a number of other factors such as other pitchers in the rotation may not have stepped their game up, if Roy was still there etc.
What you guys think?
Think about it:
Shaun Marcum: 13-8 in 31 game starts
Ricky Romero: 14-9 in 32 game starts
Brandon Morrow: 10-7 in 26 game starts
Brett Cecil: 15-7 in 28 game starts
Total: 52-31
Of Shaun Marcum's 31 game starts, the Jays were: 17-14
Of Rickey Romero's 32 game starts, the Jays were: 18-14
Of Brandon Morrow's 26 game starts, the Jays were: 15-11
Of Brett Cecil's 28 game starts, the Jays were: 18-10
Total: 68-49
The rest of Toronto's 2010 starters:
Marc Rzepczynski 12 game starts allowing for a: 5-7
Brian Tallet 5 game starts allowing for a: 1-4
Jesse Litsch 9 game starts allowing for a: 2-7
Dana Eveland 9 game starts allowing for a: 4-5
Brad Mills 3 game starts allowing for a: 3-0
Shawn Hill 4 game starts allowing for a: 2-2
Kyle Drabek 3 game starts allowing for a: 0-3
Total: 17-28
That gives a total of 69 wins and 59 loses for a total of 128 games by starters.
That means 16 games were won and 17 games were lost by relief pitchers.
That gives the Jays a total record of: 85-76.
Now here is where MAYBE keeping Roy Halladay would have put the Jays into post season play.
So we keep Marcum, Romero, Morrow, and Cecil games exactly as is, giving the Jays a record of: 68-49.
Then we cut the 5th man circus out and use Roy.(Obviously Roy would be #1 starter and the other starters would bump down) but that gives the Jays a total of 21 wins and 10 losses in 33 starts.
This then gives the Jays a record of: 74-41 in 129 games by starters.
We then add the Jays total record of wins/loses where Marcum, Romero, Morrow, or Cecil started to Roys wins/loses: 68+21-49+10
This gives the Blue Jays a record of: 89-59 in 148.
Now adding Roy into the rotation provides 33 starts but the 5th rotation circus of the Blue Jays had 45 starts. Therefore the Blue Jays staff must pick up 12 starts. If the Blue Jays could win 6 of these games that puts them at a record of:
95-65.
Now Roy Halladay had two games in which he received a no decision. Philadelphia won 1 and lost 1 out of these two games. We have three options here: The Jays win both games, the Jays lose both games, or the Jays win 1 game and lose the other game.
With 2 wins we get a final record of: 97-65
With 2 losses we get a final record of: 95-67
With 1 win, 1 loss we get a final record of: 96-68
As you can see, if the Blue Jays kept Roy Halladay for the 2010 season, they very well could have made play offs. However there are a number of other factors such as other pitchers in the rotation may not have stepped their game up, if Roy was still there etc.
What you guys think?
