MLB Odds – Baseball Prop Bets NLDS Game 1

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  • Willie Bee
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-14-06
    • 15726

    #1
    MLB Odds – Baseball Prop Bets NLDS Game 1
    MLB odds – Baseball Prop Bets NLDS Game 1

    There are plenty of baseball prop wagers to be found for the NLDS opener between the Phillies and Cincinnati Reds at Phildelphia's Citizens Bank Park.

    Can't we get these baseball playoffs started already?

    It's hard to pick the most intriguing matchup among the three League Division Series that get underway Wednesday. It is, however, easy to find the one that MLB oddsmakers believe is the most lopsided.

    The SBR preview for Game 1 of this NLDS between the Philadelphia Phillies and Cincinnati Reds included the minus 200 money line for the Phils. Not much has changed on that front, with offers ranging from 200 up to 225 offshore on Tuesday evening, roughly 24 hours before first pitch (5:07 p.m. ET, TBS). Not being a fan of laying chalk that high, I'm also not ready to pull the trigger on the Reds in the plus 185-195 span. So what's a bettor to do?

    Team and player prop bets are one option, and plenty of choices are available at sites like TheGreek and Bookmaker. Time to have a little fun and possibly make some coin along the way with a few picks.

    First 5 Innings

    Philadelphia is minus 205 with the Reds plus 175 at Bookmaker with the total 3½ runs ('under' minus 115). Run line first five's are posting the Phils minus 140 on the minus ½-run, with the Reds plus 120 on the plus ½-run. I can live with Roy Halladay having the lead after the top of the fifth at minus 140.

    Team to hit first triple in game

    Both the Phillies and Reds are minus 115 at TheGreek, and it might be interesting to see if this line changes when the series moves to Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. Philly and Cincy combined for three triples in the seven regular season games they played, with two of them coming in the three-game set in Porkopolis.

    Philadelphia ranked fourth in the NL with 34 three-baggers while the Reds were eighth with 30. I like Shane Victorino or Jimmy Rollins to scoot through a 270º-turn on the basepaths in this game. Call it a gut feeling, either that or gas.

    First inning run
    Yes +125
    No -155

    Halladay is tough to score on in any inning he pitches. He did not allow a run the first frame in either of his two starts against the Reds this season, and only allowed to happen twice in his last 11 starts. The opposition plated in the first frame nine times in 33 starts overall.

    Volquez was touched for opening inning runs four times in his dozen starts, three of those occurrences in his first three starts off the DL starting in mid-July. The other was a five-run shelling he took while not surviving the first inning against the Giants in San Fran on Aug 23 as a 130 underdog to Matt Cain.

    I know the popular, safe pick here is to say no, but I've never liked running with the popular crowd: Yes for a quarter.

    Total runs, hits and errors – 24

    Both sides of the 'over/under' 24 are at minus 115, and this all boils down to how you lean on the scoreboard total. The weather has changed a bit since our preview of the Reds, Phils matchup. The odds of hard rain leading up and into the start time have decreased, with the winds now posted for SW-WSW during the clash, 9-10 mph (out to right-center to right-field corner). It's still not going to be pleasant necessarily, at least damp and on the cool side with a game-time temp of 61ºF likely the warmest you can hope for before cooling through the 50s.

    John Hirschbeck is the appointed crew chief for this series and one might presume he will appoint himself for plate duty in Game 1. He was a light 17-13-1 'under' ump for the regular season, including the two games he called at Citizens Bank Park.

    Even if the sports books are correct on the 7-run total as a 'push,' I like the 'over' 24 on this one. My final pick is 5-2 Philly, the Reds with eight hits, Phils with 10, and one error between the two clubs.
  • bobbyfk
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 01-19-09
    • 15218

    #2
    good write up
    Comment
    • Willie Bee
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 02-14-06
      • 15726

      #3
      Thanks Bobby, and have a blast at the game.

      Anyone else playing props in this game?
      Comment
      • KingKolzig
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 02-02-10
        • 5550

        #4
        i wonder if 5dimes/sportbet will be having player props today, i didnt see any this morning
        Comment
        • ouman101
          SBR MVP
          • 12-02-09
          • 2815

          #5
          Haven't looked at any props yet. I may look into all the ones that are up. Like all your picks but think the under 24 is a better play.
          Comment
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