whats up all. GL to everyone in this years MLB Playoffs.
I was reading the board a few days ago and saw that someone wants to try a system of chasing the home team to win AT LEAST 1 game in each respective series. I thought this was a pretty interesting idea, so I wanted to backcheck a simple trend over the last 3 postseasons. im sure theres a thread somewhere that examines this, but i was just wondering what everyone thinks:
I went and checked the results of every postseason series over the last 3 years. The results for the HOME TEAM are such:
Every year, there are 7 total postseason series (4x Divisional Series, 2x League Championship Series, 1x World Series). This means that there have been 21 total series played over the last 3 postseasons (07-09). The records for the HOME team each year are below:
2007 - 19 - 11
2008 - 18 - 14
2009 - 17 - 11
Overall - 54 - 36 (90 total games, 60% x 90 = 54)
Inside these 21 different series, the AWAY team (NOT THE UNDERDOG) has gone 5 - 13 - 3.
This means that the HOME team has won 62% of the postseason games in a series over the last 3 years. The AWAY team has won 24% of these games.
From a series pricing standpoint, the FAVORITE (NOT THE HOME TEAM) is 16-5 over the last 21 postseason series, good for a close to 77% winning percentage.
It is also interesting to note that the 2007 Postseason featured 5 sweeps, so multiple AWAY wins were won by favorites (including 2 sweeps by the Red Sox, who were favored throughout, and 1 by the D'Backs, who were favored in the NLDS). The Rockies also swept 2 series as UNDERDOGS, and are the ONLY team to win more than ONE series as an UNDERDOG over the last 3 postseasons.
I guess what im getting at is that does anyone think it would be a good idea to just sling the home team (depending on the line) each game/series? a 77% series win percentage for the favorite over the last 3 seasons is pretty impressive.
There are definitely a few factors that are concerning, however: there are SIX teams in the 2010 Postseason that have appeared 1 or less times in the playoffs from 2007 - 2009: Rays, Giants, Reds, Rangers, Braves, and Twins. The Phillies, Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Angels, Dodgers, and Rockies all made the postseason AT LEAST twice from 07 - 09, with the Phillies, Angels, and Red Sox making it ALL THREE of those years. So needless to say, all of these new teams could make this pseudo-system null and void.
Basically, im thinking that all of my series bets will go to the FAVORITE, while most of my single-game bets will go to the HOME TEAM.
I am very interested in hearing what everyone thinks about this stuff, and if you think it matters at all.
I was reading the board a few days ago and saw that someone wants to try a system of chasing the home team to win AT LEAST 1 game in each respective series. I thought this was a pretty interesting idea, so I wanted to backcheck a simple trend over the last 3 postseasons. im sure theres a thread somewhere that examines this, but i was just wondering what everyone thinks:
I went and checked the results of every postseason series over the last 3 years. The results for the HOME TEAM are such:
Every year, there are 7 total postseason series (4x Divisional Series, 2x League Championship Series, 1x World Series). This means that there have been 21 total series played over the last 3 postseasons (07-09). The records for the HOME team each year are below:
2007 - 19 - 11
2008 - 18 - 14
2009 - 17 - 11
Overall - 54 - 36 (90 total games, 60% x 90 = 54)
Inside these 21 different series, the AWAY team (NOT THE UNDERDOG) has gone 5 - 13 - 3.
This means that the HOME team has won 62% of the postseason games in a series over the last 3 years. The AWAY team has won 24% of these games.
From a series pricing standpoint, the FAVORITE (NOT THE HOME TEAM) is 16-5 over the last 21 postseason series, good for a close to 77% winning percentage.
It is also interesting to note that the 2007 Postseason featured 5 sweeps, so multiple AWAY wins were won by favorites (including 2 sweeps by the Red Sox, who were favored throughout, and 1 by the D'Backs, who were favored in the NLDS). The Rockies also swept 2 series as UNDERDOGS, and are the ONLY team to win more than ONE series as an UNDERDOG over the last 3 postseasons.
I guess what im getting at is that does anyone think it would be a good idea to just sling the home team (depending on the line) each game/series? a 77% series win percentage for the favorite over the last 3 seasons is pretty impressive.
There are definitely a few factors that are concerning, however: there are SIX teams in the 2010 Postseason that have appeared 1 or less times in the playoffs from 2007 - 2009: Rays, Giants, Reds, Rangers, Braves, and Twins. The Phillies, Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Angels, Dodgers, and Rockies all made the postseason AT LEAST twice from 07 - 09, with the Phillies, Angels, and Red Sox making it ALL THREE of those years. So needless to say, all of these new teams could make this pseudo-system null and void.
Basically, im thinking that all of my series bets will go to the FAVORITE, while most of my single-game bets will go to the HOME TEAM.
I am very interested in hearing what everyone thinks about this stuff, and if you think it matters at all.
