Who wins the NL central: The Reds or the Cardinals?

[BettorBelieveIt]

The St. Louis Cardinals have been the dominant team in the NL Central, with some competition from the Chicago Cubs and the Houston Astros. Since 1995, the Cardinals have won the NL central a division leading 8 times. They’ve won twice as many NL central division titles as the second best team in the NL Central: Houston’s Astros with 4 and the Cubs trailing behind them with 3.

Taking into account that the Reds haven’t won the division since 1994-1995, when the season was cut short because of a player’s strike, this year may prove they won’t give up without a fight. With the emergence of top players for the Reds such as Jay Bruce, Edinson Volquez, Travis Wood, Jordan Smith, Logan Ondrusek and veterans Bronson Arroyo and Scott Rolen, the Reds currently sit a game ahead of second place St. Louis.

Keep in mind the Cardinals have a strong team of their own with power hitters Albert Pujols and left fielder Matt Holliday. Even on what most call an off year for Pujols, he still sports a .305 BA with 27 homeruns and 78 RBI’s. We all know when a game is on the line, there isn’t a better player you want coming to the plate than Pujols. St. Louis also sports one of the best trios of starters in Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, and Jaime Garcia.

The difference in this race is the Cardinals are the more experienced team in comparison to the young and talented but still unproven Reds team. The major concern for the Cardinals as the season winds down is whether youngsters Jon Jay, Colby Rasmus, Jaime Garcia, and Allan Craig can keep up their success as the pressure mounts and the race heats up.

While this race will come down the wire, the Cardinals have proven winners that are led by one of the greatest managers in the game, Tony La Russa. That should be the difference in this race as the Cardinals will win their 9th NL Central as the Reds fall just a couple of games short.

[mcbaseball10]

Nice write up. I actually blogged about this on Monday and felt more strongly in the Reds for some other reasons.
Great first post by you.

Who will Emerge in the NL Central Stretch Run?
8/16/2010 4:21:12 PM by mcbaseball10

After Thursday's off day the St. Louis Cardinals have to deal with an extremely physically and mentally demanding schedule. The Cardinals only have two off-days next month, Sept. 2 and Sept. 20. One of these days will be a makeup game for the August 8th rainout with the Florida Marlins. The Miami Hurricanes have a game at Sun Life Stadium on Sept.2, therefore making the 20th the most likely makeup date. According to MLB.com, the player's would have to waive a league rule that says a team can play no more than 20 games without a day off. If that's the case, the Cardinals will be faced with 31 straight calendar days without a day off to close the season.

Cincinnati begins a tough 9 game West Coast road trip on Tuesday against Arizona, LA Dodgers, and the first place Giants. But the biggest road trip of the remaining schedule could prove to be the difference in this tight race as Cincinnati travels to St. Louis for 3 games in early September and closes with 4 games in the mile high air of Coors Field in Colorado.

It could be a matter of which team can avoid a costly losing streak down the stretch. Cincinnati has the advantage of a deep starting rotation with 7 potential starters available in case of injury or as a substitute for poor performance (Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Wood, Leake, Harang). St. Louis has the advantage in that Wainright and Carpenter could go toe-to-toe with any starter in the league. Jaime Garcia and Jake Westbrook provide quality starts in the middle of the rotation but Kyle Lohse struggled in his return from injury yesterday and his output could be a major factor at the back end of the rotation. This rotation will be put to the test down the stretch and can ill-afford an injury.

The middle relievers for St. Louis have struggled much of the season but closer Ryan Franklin has been dependable so far, converting 21 of 23 save opportunities. Cincinnati's middle relievers have done an outstanding job as the season has progressed. Closer Francisco Cordero has had an uncanny ability to make every save opportunity a Rolaids relief moment for Reds fans. He has managed to convert 32 of 38 save opportunities while pitching a perfect 9th in these save situations only 3 times since May. Aroldis Chapman is settling in nicely to a bullpen role in AAA and could be a substantial 100-mph flame throwing addition when rosters are expanded or if a roster spot needs to be filled prior to the September 1st expansion date.
Offensively, the Cardinals' Albert Pujols continues to be arguably the best player in baseball. Sunday he surpassed the 30 home run mark for the 10th straight year and is on pace to hit over .300 for the 10th straight year as well. His consistency is remarkable but the key to the end of the season will be his supporting cast. The Cardinals offense struggled at the beginning of the season while Matt Holliday failed to provide the protection for Pujols. Teams will pitch around Pujols and force other players to beat them. It is no coincendence that the Cardinals have had such success in August with Holliday hitting for a .356 average this month with 2 home runs and 11 RBI.
Cincinnati will continue to rely on MVP candidate Joey Votto to lead them offensively. Scott Rolen's resurgent bat will provide the protection for Votto. Rolen has been a positive veteran presence on an otherwise youthful team with no playoff experience. The team acquired former Cardinal Jim Edmonds to also help in the clubhouse and potentially supply some late lineup power.
If you were looking to place a bet on the winner, I would have to recommend taking the plus money with the Cincinnati Reds. We would all like to have the Reds at +980 to win the Central which was set prior to the beginning of the season, but right now it can still be had at +125 on Matchbook. The vast majority of the season has been spent with these teams within 3 games of each other jockeying between 1st and 2nd place in the Central. Cincinnati enters Tuesday with a 1 game lead making the plus odds seems a bit more enticing.

Front line starters- Cardinals
Starting pitching depth-Reds
Bullpen-Reds
Closer-Cardinals
Offense-Reds
Experience-Cardinals
head-to-head-Cardinals
schedule (factor strength of schedule and days off)-Reds

ADVANTAGE- REDS +125