I have always been intrigued by the potential success of abc chase systems. I have also been concerned about the size of losses eliminating potential profit. So i have been experimenting with winning mlb teams and the expectation they will win more often than not over a series of games.
Criteria is teams winning .550 or better on the season and having lost 2 of last 3 games. With many of these teams being large favorites, the design is not always to win a full unit to minimize any potential loss. RL plays will be an option and situation dependent based on line value. There will be variables in place to again minimize potential losses. Every bet will not be designed to win a unit, but remain positive overall. Plays are unit risked. Not to win.
The Houson loss was tough. With the two big stars on the DL in Correa and Altuve, the lines didn't adjust at all over the weekend. The offense wasn't the same without those two and Springer expected to carry things. I expected the pitching to pull through once at home against Texas. Lines for all favs were brutal this weekend and i learned with the injuries i could have minimized the play on such a large fav. Being loyal to the criteria at those odds caused a bigger loss than necessary. Lesson learned. Based on test runs I hope to be in the plus by this weekend.
Seattle has lost 7 of 9 games by a total of 29 runs. I didn't want to include them based on that; as they may become a play at least twice. And their next 10 games are 4 at HOU, 3 at OAK, and 3 vs LAD. I will make the play as a minimal amount in first series.
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