1. #1
    kingdom
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    Mlb 5518

    I have always been intrigued by the potential success of abc chase systems. I have also been concerned about the size of losses eliminating potential profit. So i have been experimenting with winning mlb teams and the expectation they will win more often than not over a series of games.

    Criteria is teams winning .550 or better on the season and having lost 2 of last 3 games. With many of these teams being large favorites, the design is not always to win a full unit to minimize any potential loss. RL plays will be an option and situation dependent based on line value. There will be variables in place to again minimize potential losses. Every bet will not be designed to win a unit, but remain positive overall. Plays are unit risked. Not to win.
    Last edited by kingdom; 07-26-18 at 10:18 AM.

  2. #2
    kingdom
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    7/26

    NYY -255 (2u) risked

    CHC -108 (1u)LAD -130 (1u)ATL -135 RL (1u)

  3. #3
    kingdom
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    7/26 Results:

    NYY (W) .78u
    CHC (W) .93
    LAD (W) .77
    ATL (L) -1.0 (A bet)

    Current Record: 3-0 (+2.48u)
    Last edited by kingdom; 07-27-18 at 08:29 AM.

  4. #4
    kingdom
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    7/27

    BOS -360 (2u)
    CLE -183 (1u)
    HOU -260 (2u)
    LAD -153 (.5u)
    ATL +143 (.5u) RL -119 (1u)

    ATL is B bet
    Last edited by kingdom; 07-27-18 at 09:24 AM.

  5. #5
    kingdom
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    7/27 Results:

    LAD (W) .33u
    BOS (W) .57
    CLE (W) .55
    HOU (L) -2u (A bet)
    ATL (L) -1.5u (B bet)

    Current Record 6-0 (+3.93u)

  6. #6
    kingdom
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    7/28

    HOU -335 (4u)
    BOS -195 (1u)
    SEA +112 (1u)
    ATL +118 (.5u) RL -140 (2u)


    ATL is C bet
    HOU is B bet
    Last edited by kingdom; 07-28-18 at 04:20 PM.

  7. #7
    kingdom
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    7/28

    NYY -335 (2u) Game 2

  8. #8
    kingdom
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    7/28 Results:

    BOS (W) .51u
    NYY (W) .60u
    HOU (L) -4u (B Bet)
    ATL (L) -2.5u (C Bet)
    SEA (L) -1u (A Bet)

    Current Record 8-1 (+.04u)

    Loss: ATL (5u)

  9. #9
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    7/29

    PHI +104 (1u)
    HOU -230 (5u)
    SEA +107 (2u)
    CHC -122 (1u)
    ATL +130 (1u) RL -135 (1u)
    OAK +116 (.5u) RL -145 (.5u)

    HOU is C bet.
    SEA is B bet.

  10. #10
    kingdom
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    7/29 Results:

    CHC (W) .82u
    SEA (W) 1.14u
    ATL (W) 2.04u
    PHI (L) -1u (A Bet)
    OAK (L) -.16u (A Bet)
    HOU (L) -5u (C Bet)

    Current Record: 11-2 (-6.96u)

    Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u)

  11. #11
    kingdom
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    The Houson loss was tough. With the two big stars on the DL in Correa and Altuve, the lines didn't adjust at all over the weekend. The offense wasn't the same without those two and Springer expected to carry things. I expected the pitching to pull through once at home against Texas. Lines for all favs were brutal this weekend and i learned with the injuries i could have minimized the play on such a large fav. Being loyal to the criteria at those odds caused a bigger loss than necessary. Lesson learned. Based on test runs I hope to be in the plus by this weekend.

  12. #12
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    7/30

    PHI RL +155 (1.5u)
    ATL -159 (1.2u)
    OAK -139 (1.2u)
    HOU -110 (1u)
    SEA RL -160 (1u)

    PHI is B bet.
    OAK is B bet.

  13. #13
    kingdom
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    7/30 Results:

    SEA (W) .63u
    OAK (W) .86u
    ATL (W) .75u
    PHI (W) -.03u
    HOU (L) -1u (A Bet)

    Current Record: 15-2 (-3.78u)


    Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u)

  14. #14
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    7/31

    CHC +104 1u
    CLE -151 1u
    OAK -178 2u
    LAD -168 1u
    HOU -150 2u
    PHI -140 RL 1u

    HOU is B Bet.

  15. #15
    kingdom
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    7/31 Results:

    CLE (W) .66u
    OAK (W) .56u
    HOU (W) .33u
    PHI (W) .71u
    CHC (L) -1u
    LAD (L) -1u

    Current Record 19-2 (-1.52)

    Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u)

  16. #16
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    8/1

    HOU -115 1u
    CHC -127 2u
    LAD -160 2u


    CHC is B bet.
    LAD is B bet.

  17. #17
    kingdom
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    8/1 Results:

    HOU (W) .87u
    CHC (W) .57u
    LAD (W) .25u

    Current Record: 22-2 (+.17u)

    Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u)

  18. #18
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    8/2

    PHI -178 1.2u
    LAD -189 1.2u
    SEA -140 1u RL+140 .5u

  19. #19
    kingdom
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    8/2 Results:

    PHI (W) .67u
    LAD (W) .63u
    SEA (L) -1.5u

    Current Record: 24-2 (+1.47u)

    Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u)

  20. #20
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    8/3

    CHC -195 1.2u
    NYY -123 1u
    MIL -122 1u
    ARI -185 1.2u
    SEA -160 1u RL +120 1u

  21. #21
    kingdom
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    8/3 Results:

    CHC (W) .62u
    MIL (W) .82u
    ARI (W) .65u
    NYY (L) -1u
    SEA (L) -2u

    Current Record 27-2 (+3.56)

    Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u)

  22. #22
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    8/4

    NYY 1u +140
    SEA 3u RL -115
    MIL 1u -134

  23. #23
    kingdom
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    8/4 Results:

    MIL (W) .75u
    NYY (L) -1u
    SEA (L) -3u

    Current Record: 28-3 (-2.19u)

    Loss: ATL 5u HOU 11u SEA 6.5u

  24. #24
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    8/5

    NYY 2.5u +105
    SEA 1.5u -145
    LAD 1.2u -115

  25. #25
    kingdom
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    8/5 Results:

    LAD (W) 1.04u
    SEA (W) 1.03u
    NYY (L) -2.5u

    Current Record: 30-4 (-4.62)

    Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u) SEA (6.5u) NYY (4.5u)

  26. #26
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    8/6

    SEA -114 1u
    NYY -185 2u

  27. #27
    kingdom
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    8/6 Results:

    SEA (W) 1.05u
    NYY (W) 1.08u

    Current Record: 32-4 (-2.49u)

    Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u) SEA (6.5u) NYY (4.5u)

  28. #28
    kingdom
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    8/7

    NYY -190 2u
    LAD -109 1u

  29. #29
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    8/7

    ATL 1.25u RL -125

  30. #30
    kingdom
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    8/7 Results:

    NYY (W) 1.05u
    LAD (W) .92u
    ATL (W) 1u

    Current Record: 35-4 (+.48u)

    Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u) SEA (6.5u) NYY (4.5u)

  31. #31
    kingdom
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    8/8


    ARI -155 1.2u
    MIL -190 2u

  32. #32
    kingdom
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    8/8 Results:

    ARI (W) .77u
    MIL (W) 1.05u

    Current Record: 37-4 (+2.3u)

    Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u) SEA (6.5u) NYY (4.5u)

  33. #33
    kingdom
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    8/9

    MIL -170 1.2u
    SEA +150 .25u

  34. #34
    kingdom
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    Seattle has lost 7 of 9 games by a total of 29 runs. I didn't want to include them based on that; as they may become a play at least twice. And their next 10 games are 4 at HOU, 3 at OAK, and 3 vs LAD. I will make the play as a minimal amount in first series.

  35. #35
    kingdom
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    8/9 Results:

    SEA (W) .38u
    MIL (L) -1.2u

    Current Record: 38-4 (+2.68u)

    Loss: ATL (5u) HOU (11u) SEA (6.5u) NYY (4.5u)

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