1. #36
    FUqer
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    Quote Originally Posted by FUqer View Post
    Monday Plays 6/5

    -Nationals +120
    -Marlins FF +105
    _________________________
    I added the Marlins FF, I think they have the better pitcher and Butler has had walk issues and that could be a problem against a good base running team like the Marlins with the wind blowing in at Wrigley and a low scoring game expected. The Marlins have had a top 5 offense over the last week and the Cubs are batting just .202. I don't trust the bullpen usage or the Cubs ability lately to come from behind late, so FF only.
    Last edited by FUqer; 06-05-17 at 12:14 PM.

  2. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by FUqer View Post
    Monday Plays 6/5

    -Nationals +120
    -Marlins FF +105
    -Brewers FF -105
    _________________________
    I added the Brewers FF only, I explained my reasons a bit earlier. Possibly the last play for day, but I do want to go through and update the lines on totals and see if anything has changed.

  3. #38
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    I'm not brave enough to take the Under in the Astros and Reds game and that would be my top two total plays going by projections, so it looks like a pass on totals for the day.

    I'm tracking the Royals, Reds, Phillies RRL -1.5, based on bookies lines of 9.5 or more. ( 2-3 RRL and 4-1 SU )

    I'm tracking the Phillies based on my projections of totals 9 or higher. ( 8-6 RRL )

    I'm tracking dogs On Road & Less than 30% Public Backing (5-4 for +4.47) Possibly the Phillies & Marlins.

    I'm tracking dogs On Road & Less than 30% Public Backing & +130 - +145 (4-0 for +5.44) Probably nothing today.

  4. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by FUqer View Post
    Monday Plays 6/5

    -Nationals +120
    -Marlins FF +105
    -Brewers FF -105
    -Cardinals -1 -110
    _________________________
    I added the Cardinals -1, they have the biggest SP advantage of the day and what put me over the top is they are 21-10 overall as an road favorite on a 3 game losing streak and 8-1 their last 9 in that spot. Overall teams in that spot have almost a +1.0 ROI for the database history. I don't always quite trust the -1.5 on such a heavily backed public team, you never know when MLB is going put those "special balls in play".

  5. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by FUqer View Post
    Monday Plays 6/5

    -Nationals +120
    -Marlins FF +105
    -Brewers FF -105
    -Cardinals -1 -110
    -Braves -1 +121
    -Athletics FF -112
    _________________________
    I added two finals plays for the day. I couldn't ignore the Braves as my system's top play by a wide margin at a decent price against a team who has struggled on the road. I'm hoping Colon can get one more good game vs the Phillies and with the total being so high, I doubt it's a one run game.

    I'm going to go with the Athletics after all, the Blue Jays have to travel across country after playing their rival and I'm hoping their bats get off to a slow start against a hot pitcher, but I don't trust the A's bullpen so FF only.

  6. #41
    2daBank
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    Def agree ff way to go if so inclined on oak. I feel like it pretty much even thru that point so not sure about having to lay juice. Can't state enough how much I do like oak starter so certainly understand.

    I didn't really consider travel and while I do at times I've always been a big believer when there a scheduling advantage it tends to show more the 2nd game as I think adrenaline gets guys thru the 1st day before it catches up with them.

    Little worried about pens in Milwaukee for my under so another game ff prob makes more sense. Not sure sf is any more trustable but Your ideals def sound.

    BTP
    Week 9
    3-2-0 178 pts

    BTP
    Week 8
    3-2-0 150 pts


  7. #42
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    Tuesday Projections

    stl@ (-102 50.5%)
    @atl (-118 54.2%)
    @mil (-146 59.3%)
    @chc (-168 62.7%)
    @ari (-170 63.0%)
    was@ (-118 54.2%)
    @nyy (-120 54.5%)
    @tb (-143 58.8%)
    @det (-116 53.7%)
    tor@ (-126 55.7%)
    min@ (+137 42.2%)
    pit@ (+115 46.5%)
    nym@ (-126 55.7%)
    @col (-104 51.0%)

    TOTALS

    bos/nyy - (3.3-3.9 = 7.2)
    sd/ari - (3.1-5.4 = 8.5)
    pit/bal - (3.7-4.3 = 8.0)
    min/sea - (3.7-5.0 = 8.7)
    nym/tex - (4.9-3.9 = 8.8)
    tor/oak - (4.8-3.8 = 8.6)
    stl/cin - (4.6-4.5 = 9.1)
    sf/mil - (3.6-5.2 = 8.8)
    was/lad - (3.9-3.3 = 7.2)
    chw/tb - (3.0-4.3 = 7.3)
    laa/det - (4.5-5.3 = 9.8)
    phi/atl - (4.3-5.1 = 9.4)

  8. #43
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    Originally Posted by FUqer
    Monday Plays 6/5

    -
    Nationals +120
    -
    Marlins FF +105
    -
    Brewers FF -105
    -
    Cardinals -1 -110
    -
    Braves -1 +121
    -
    AthleticsFF -112
    _________________________
    Yesterday = 2-3-1 = -0.90
    ___________________________
    June

    ALL = 7-8 for -1.08
    S/U = 5-3 for +2.08
    O/U = 2-1 for +1.02
    R/L = 0-4 for -4.18
    ---------------
    Dogs = 3-1 for +2.24
    Favs = 2-2 for -0.16
    ----------------
    Over = 1-0 for +1.02
    Under = 1-1 for +0.00
    ___________________________

    Some hits and misses last night. The Marlins didn't show up on the road and the Cubs HR in the 1st was impressive and just enough to make me lose. The Brewers FF looked good till they let them tie it and I ended up with a push and then like I expected their bullpen imploded. The Cardinals and Braves were str8 airballs, I have not done good on RL this month.

    I like the Brewers but their pen is still in bad shape and might be too much to ask for Anderson to go to deep again, possible a FF - half a run could be an option. I liked the Pirates until I did my SDQL research. Possibly interested in the Nats again and the Rockies. That's a nice price for Scherzer on the Road and Clevinger has had HR problems in the past and that could be trouble playing in Colorado. I'm noticing my system is not showing a lot of dogs at all, but when it does, they been doing good. I'm going to rework some pitcher ratings soon as everyday I'm learning something new.

    Seattle and Detroit Over may be a possibility, I found a new trend last night for Overs on teams facing each other both with rest this season and they are matching up with my projections.

    I just want to say thanks to all those who participate in discussions in a respectful manner on these boards, I read and learn some good information and even get a good laugh here and there. Some of them are downright interesting on the surface, like talk about how people are playing the Giants because they suck at this and that, but it keeps working. I do think most of the time, definitely not all the time, that there are good explanations as why a line is the way it is. It might be hard to understand without some research, but they know what they are doing most of the time. And I expect the books to catch onto things like that sooner or later, I've noticed on things like RLM, they seem to throw a decoy out there sometimes, because they know what bettors are looking for those things. Anyway just my 2 cents.

  9. #44
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    Daily SDQL 6/6

    SDQL 6/6

    ALL = Yesterday 1-5-1 (Total 228-190)
    SU = Yesterday 0-1 (Total 133-100)
    OU = Yesterday 1-4-1 (Total 95-90)
    ---------------------------------

    SU

    PLAY: The Cubs are 27-0 SU since Jul 27, 2015 as a home 140+ favorite off a game as a favorite in which they had 6 or fewer hits.

    team=Cubs and HF and p:F and line <=-140 and p:hits<=6 and date>=20150727



    FADE: The Marlins are 0-19 SU as a road dog of more than 120 when seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they allowed six or fewer hits.

    team = Marlins and A and line>120 and po:hits <= 6 and p:L and SG > 1 and season >= 2012



    PLAY: The Orioles are 21-0 SU as a 125+ favorite after Chris Davis had multiple RBI.

    team=Orioles and line<=-125 and Chris Davis:rbi>1 and date>=20140820



    PLAY: The Orioles are 26-2 SU since Aug 07, 2012 as a home favorite off a home game in which they did not score after the third inning.

    team = Orioles and HF and p:H and p:S3 = p:runs and date >= 20120807



    PLAY: The Orioles are 20-1 SU at home as a favorite after a home loss in which they did not score after the third inning.

    team = Orioles and HF and p:HL and p:S3 = p:runs and date >= 20120926



    PLAY: The Orioles 17-4 SU since 06/13/13 at Home after a Home loss and it's the first game of the series.

    team=Orioles and H and p:HL and FGS and date>=20130613



    PLAY: The Yankees are 12-0 SU since Sep 24, 2015 as a home favorite off a game as a dog in which they had more strikeouts than hits.

    team=Yankees and HF and p and p:SO > p:hits and date>=20150924



    FADE: The Cardinals (61-95 -30.6% ROI)

    s:SO > 9 and s:W and A and season > 2005 and -185 <= line <= -110 and conference = o:conference and starter rest < 10 and rest = 0 and SG<3 and month<9 and 10>=total>=7.5



    PLAY: The Angels (266-246 +20.1% ROI)

    AD and season > 2010 and month != 7 and p:hits < 8 and pp:hits > 6 and 18 > ppp:hits > 2 and pppp:hits > 5 and 17 > ppppp:hits > 4 and 16 > op:hits > 6 and s:SRA < 6 and streak > -5 and SG < 4 and line < 190 and total < 10.01 and 1.9 > STDSWHIP > 1.2



    ------------

    OU

    OVER: The Braves are 19-2 OU at home after they allowed 12-plus hits.

    team = Braves and H and 12 <= po:hits and date >= 20160612



    UNDER: The Red Sox are 1-15 OU as a dog after they hit more home runs than their opponent.

    team = Red Sox and D and p:HR > po:HR and date >= 20160417



    UNDER: The Red Sox are 2-11 OU when Drew Pomeranz starts on the Road since 6/25/16.

    starter=Drew Pomeranz and A and date>=20160625



    UNDER: The Indians are 1-15 OU on the road when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start since Jun 13, 2016.

    team=Indians and A and s:runs < 3 and date>=20160613



    OVER: The Over is 47-24-2 +25.6% ROI when both teams are off one day rest this season.
    (D-Backs, Mariners, Orioles, Rangers, Rays, Rockies, Tigers, Yankees)



    OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 91-51-5 OU +21.7% ROI this season.
    (Cardinals, Mets, Indians, Blue Jays, )

    A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017



    OVER: Teams on 3 str8 Overs or more. (93-65 +11.8% ROI)
    (Braves, White Sox, Tigers)

    date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O



    ________________

    SU

    Cubs
    Orioles
    Yankees
    Reds
    Angels

    OU

    Mets/Rangers Over x2
    White Sox/Rays Over x2
    Angels/Tigers Over x2
    Phillies/Braves Over x2
    Red Sox/Yankees Under
    Indians/Rockies Over
    Padres/D-Backs Over
    Twins/Mariners Over
    Pirates/Orioles Over
    Cardinals/Reds Over
    Blue Jays/Athletics Over
    ___________________________________

  10. #45
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    Going track some stuff based soley on lines that I don't quite understand at first glance.

    Not sure why the Blue Jays are -142, I know Estrada has been good but I don't think Hahn has been bad and the A's have been good really good at Home. Also going by last night's line, it just seems off. Blue Jays here.

    The Nationals opened at like +115 yesterday but are only -112 with Scherzer. Maybe travel had something to do with the line yesterday but I still think that's low. Dodgers here.

    I often have a hard time understanding the Rangers lines and fell victim to it early on, but I still think it's off in their favor. Mets here.

    I know I don't know much about Paxton for the Mariners yet, and definitely have him under-rated, but that seems like a high number for a team that isn't that great vs lefties in my perception and vs a team that is usually better vs lefties. Mariners here.

    I have a lot lower number for the Tigers than the -150 currently. The Angels haven't been that bad vs lefties and I'm not sure Norris and that bullpen warrant such a high number. But I just found that the Angels are only +211 RRL -1.5, while being +144, that is more suspicious to me. Angels here.

    I came up with a surprisingly low # for the Cardinals -102 and it was at -109 early on and got bet up to -125, so I don't see anything off in that line, just the books reacting to public perception and the Cardinals losing 4 in a row. I'm surprised they didn't open it higher based on that.

    I originally thought the Rays seemed a little high, but my model always favors the White Sox for some reason and Archer has pretty good numbers this year, while Quintana doesn't and he had also failed the eye test for me lately. So I have no problem with the line here.

    I have no problem with the Brewers, Cubs, D-Backs, Braves, Pirates, Rockies, Yankees line.
    Last edited by FUqer; 06-06-17 at 07:59 AM.

  11. #46
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    Tracking

    __________________________________
    RRL based on bookies totals of 9.5 or more (4-4 6-2 SU)

    Rockies -1.5 +202
    Angels -1.5 +211
    __________________________________
    RRL based on my totals of 9 or more (9-6 11-4 SU)

    Phillies -1.5 +152
    Angels -1.5 +211
    Reds -1.5 +226
    Royals -1.5 +???
    __________________________________
    Dogs On Road & Less than 30% Public Backing & +130 - +145 (4-0 for +5.44)

    Not yet determined.
    -------------------------------
    Dogs On Road & Less than 30% Public Backing (5-4 for +4.47)

    Not yet determined.
    -------------------------------
    RRL dogs @ COL ( 1-2 for +0.40)

    Rockies -1.5 +202
    -------------------------------
    Suspect Lines (0-0)

    Blue Jays -142
    Dodgers +104
    Mets -146
    Mariners -210
    Angels +144
    __________________________________
    Run Line Projection = 60%+ (6-5 for +1.47)

    Cubs -1.5 -105?
    D-Backs -1.5 +105
    -------------------------------

    Something else I'm not getting is why are the Angels +144 on Heritage but only +211 -1.5. I think that is more suspicious than the Tigers being -150 in the first place.
    Last edited by FUqer; 06-06-17 at 08:00 AM.

  12. #47
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    Tuesday Plays 6/6

    -Pirates +122

    -Red Sox/Yankees Under 9 -110 (7.2)
    -Phillies/Braves Over 8.5 -108 (9.4)
    -Blue Jays/Athletics Over 8 -113 (8.6)
    -Angels/Tigers Over 9 -115 (9.8)
    _________________________
    Last edited by FUqer; 06-06-17 at 09:36 AM.

  13. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by FUqer View Post
    Tuesday Plays 6/6

    -Pirates +122
    -Angels +139


    -Red Sox/Yankees Under 9 -110 (7.2)
    -Phillies/Braves Over 8.5 -108 (9.4)
    -Blue Jays/Athletics Over 8 -113 (8.6)
    -Angels/Tigers Over 9 -115 (9.8)
    _________________________
    I added the Angels, more of a line play and it will most likely have less that 30% backing and in the right range to fit a nice contrarian system. I also don't understand the price contrast in ML and RRL. It also qualifies for dogs in games with high totals which has done well recently. I don't like the numbers in this game, but if it were that easy, we'd all be rich. The only other play I'm considering is the Rockies.

  14. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by FUqer View Post
    Tuesday Plays 6/6

    -Pirates +122
    -Angels +139
    -Rockies +110

    -Red Sox/Yankees Under 9 -110 (7.2)
    -Phillies/Braves Over 8.5 -108 (9.4)
    -Blue Jays/Athletics Over 8 -113 (8.6)
    -Angels/Tigers Over 9 -115 (9.8)
    _________________________
    I added the Rockies, they have went 6-3 at Home in the first game of a series with 6.3 rpg, while the Indians have went 4-6 on the Road in the FGS with just 2.7 rpg. Clevinger has given up 4 homers in last two starts and that isn't good for playing in Colorado. Senzatela took his first loss of the season in his last start but I think it was more to do with fatigue, he was on 5 days rest after throwing 8 shut out innings vs the Cardinals. He's had more rest and is back home for this one. The Indians have the better bullpen on paper, but take into account where the Rockies play and they aren't so far behind, and both units should be pretty rested, with the Rockies a little fresher. Looking for the Rockies to take game one.

  15. #50
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    Originally Posted by FUqer
    Tuesday Plays 6/6

    -Pirates +122
    -Angels +139
    -Rockies +110

    -Red Sox/Yankees Under 9 -110 (7.2)
    -Phillies/Braves Over 8.5 -108 (9.4)
    -Blue Jays/Athletics Over 8 -113 (8.6)
    -Angels/Tigers Over 9 -115 (9.8)

    _________________________
    Yesterday = 2-4-1 = -1.87
    ___________________________
    June

    ALL = 9-12 for -2.95
    S/U = 7-4 for +3.57
    O/U = 2-4 for -2.34
    R/L = 0-4 for -4.18
    ---------------
    Dogs = 5-2 for +3.73
    Favs = 2-2 for -0.16
    ----------------
    Over = 1-3 for -2.34
    Under = 1-1 for +0.00
    ___________________________
    Totals got me last night and it was my fault for playing them without doing too much research and going by the SDQL. I really only have a problem with the Braves and Athletics Overs, they weren't good picks at all. I've been good on sides but keep managing to screw it up somehow with other plays.

    It still would have been a plus night if the Pirates didn't blow a lead they held the whole game. Add it to the long list of extra inning losses I have had, I still don't think I've won one all year. My luck factor is -100, but I still keep trucking, discipline is still my biggest problem.



  16. #51
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    SDQL 6/7

    ALL = Yesterday 10-5-1 (Total 238-195)
    SU = Yesterday 4-1 (Total 137-101)
    OU = Yesterday 6-4-1 (Total 101-94)
    ---------------------------------

    SU

    FADE: The Twins (10-39 -56.4% ROI)

    150>=line>=100 and P:A and P:season=season and P:margin<=-6 and 54>=WP>=51 and total>8 and 2009<=season



    PLAY: The Athletics, Brewers, D-Backs, Reds, Yankees ( 976-584 +11.8% ROI)

    H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)



    FADE: The Padres, Marlins, Indians ( 420-554 -12.8% ROI)

    p:margin=-8



    PLAY: The Dodgers are 11-0 SU+RL since Jul 01, 2012 when Clayton Kershaw starts as a 140+ favorite when their opponent is on a 3+ win streak.

    team=Dodgers and starter=Clayton Kershaw and line<=-140 and o:streak>=3 and date>=20120701



    PLAY: The Dodgers are 37-5 SU as a 135+ favorite when seeking immediate revenge for a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits.

    team = Dodgers and line<=-135 and p:hits <= 6 and p:L and SG > 1 and date >= 20140720



    PLAY: The Dodgers are 22-5 SU at home after a loss in which they did not score after the third inning.

    team = Dodgers and H and p:S3 = p:runs and p:L and date>=20140613



    FADE: The Phillies are 1-18 SU since Sep 11, 2016 on the road after their opponent scored first last game.

    team=Phillies and A and po:SF>0 and date>=20160911



    FADE: The Marlins are 1-20 SU as a dog of more than 135 in the last game of a series after a game in which they did not hit a home run.

    team = Marlins and line>135 and p:HR = 0 and LGS and season >= 2014



    FADE: The Mets are 3-17 SU since September 1st, 2013 as a dog of more than 130 after a game in which they had multiple multiple-run innings.

    team=Mets and line>130 and p:MRI>=2 and date>=20130900



    FADE: The Pirates are 4-22 SU off a one-run loss as a dog.

    team = Pirates and p and p:margin = -1 and date >= 20140816



    ------------

    OU

    OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 94-55-5 OU +19.8% ROI this season.
    (Giants, Twins, Mets, White Sox)

    A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017



    ________________

    SU

    Mariners
    Athletics
    D-Backs
    Brewers
    Reds
    Yankees
    Cubs
    Rockies
    Dodgers
    Braves
    Rangers
    Orioles

    OU

    Giants/Brewers Over
    Twins/Mariners Over
    Mets/Rangers Over
    White Sox/Rays Over
    ___________________________________

  17. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by FUqer View Post
    Tracking

    __________________________________
    RRL based on bookies totals of 9.5 or more (4-4 6-2 SU)

    Rockies -1.5 +202
    Angels -1.5 +211
    __________________________________
    RRL based on my totals of 9 or more (9-6 11-4 SU)

    Phillies -1.5 +152
    Angels -1.5 +211
    Reds -1.5 +226
    Royals -1.5 +???
    __________________________________
    Dogs On Road & Less than 30% Public Backing & +130 - +145 (4-0 for +5.44)

    Angels
    -------------------------------
    Dogs On Road & Less than 30% Public Backing (5-4 for +4.47)

    White Sox
    Angels

    Marlins
    Padres
    Twins

    -------------------------------
    RRL dogs @ COL ( 1-2 for +0.40)

    Rockies -1.5 +202
    -------------------------------
    Suspect Lines (0-0)

    Blue Jays -142
    Dodgers +104
    Mets -146
    Mariners -210
    Angels +144
    __________________________________
    Run Line Projection = 60%+ (6-5 for +1.47)

    Cubs -1.5 -105?
    D-Backs -1.5 +105
    -------------------------------

    .
    Wow!

  18. #53
    FUqer
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    Wednesday Plays 6/7

    -Astros/Royals Under 8.5 +102 (7.1)
    _________________________

    A few reasons why this is a play for me, first there is my projection of 7.1. Then there is the Royals ballpark being one of friendliest to LHP, but tonight you have two lefties going, so it makes sense to take a look at the Under. It doesn't happen much but the Under is 3-0 this year in this spot and 14-6 since 2013. You have both teams best pitchers going and the Astros might breath a little easier now that their streak is over and both teams don't hit lefties as good as righties. I'm also pretty sure the books think the Astros will win by 2 or more as they are -165 SU but only -103 RL, pretty small difference. I hope that means that KC isn't expected to score a lot and their TT Under may be worth a look also.

  19. #54
    FUqer
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    I'm going to try to get to as many as these as I can today, my wife is off for the summer and wanting to do something today.

    Pirates
    Phillies
    Twins
    Brewers
    Rockies
    Marlins
    Yankees

    Twins/Mariners Over 9.5
    Red Sox/Yankees Under 9
    Blue Jays/Athletics Over 9

  20. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by FUqer View Post
    Wednesday Plays 6/7

    -Astros/Royals Under 8.5 +102 (7.1)
    -Athletics +102

    _________________________
    I added the Athletics. They're now 16-7 at Home since April 18th, and 7-1 vs lefties in that span. They have hit Liriano pretty good in the past, whose had even worse command issues this year than Cotton. Home teams with losing records are 8-2 on Wednesdays this season vs losing teams.

  21. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by FUqer View Post
    Wednesday Plays 6/7


    -Athletics +102
    -Rockies +116

    -Astros/Royals Under 8.5 +102 (7.1)
    _________________________
    I like the Rockies again, Freeland doesn't give up too many homers and had 8 Quality starts out of 11. Meanwhile Bauer as been prone to the long ball and that's never good at Colorado as we saw last night with Clevinger. Teams are also hitting .356 off Bauer this year, who also just pitched almost 2 innings 3 days ago. Though I don't like the pitching match-up as much as last night, I still like it and the their bullpen is a lot fresher and the Indians also aren't as good vs LHP.

  22. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by FUqer View Post
    Wednesday Plays 6/7

    -Athletics +102
    -Rockies +116
    -Astros -165

    -Astros/Royals Under 8.5 +102 (7.1)
    _________________________
    Added the Astros. This is only the 2nd time this season I have played anything priced so high, once with the Indians and I won that one, so I'm hoping I can survive again. The RL price, the TT price, the high total, all making me think the Astros are going to crush them, and it's a little added insurance against my Under play that Mr. Lock is pinging against.

    The Astros are tied for the league lead in homers vs lefties and have averaged over 9 runs a game on this road trip, while the Royals haven't hit lefties that good and Keuchel is one of the best.

  23. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by FUqer View Post
    Wednesday Plays 6/7

    -Athletics +102
    -Rockies +116
    -Astros -165
    -Pirates +137

    -Astros/Royals Under 8.5 +102 (7.1)
    _________________________
    Added the Pirates. They are in similar spot to the Angels yesterday, that fit a system that plays on Road Dogs with less than 30% of the public backing of +130 or better, but I've found it better to play them between +130 and +145. Hopefully those variables will hold up thru the day. The Pirates were great vs LHP last year and it's expected they should of had a fall off, but they have been really bad and I don't think that will last, at least not that bad, and as long as they don't take out Miley with line drives to the body in the first 5 pitches, they should have a chance.

  24. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by FUqer View Post
    Wednesday Plays 6/7

    -Athletics +102
    -Rockies +116
    -Astros -165
    -Pirates +137
    -Twins FF +100

    -Astros/Royals Under 8.5 +102 (7.1)
    _________________________
    Added the Twins FF only. There was something off in the contrast of price between RRL and ML in the Twins favor and the Twins have had some success against Gallardo in the past and he has struggled this year, while Mejia hasn't been as bad. Both probably won't last long and Seattle has the better and fresher bullpen so that's why FF only.

  25. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by FUqer View Post
    Wednesday Plays 6/7

    -Athletics +102
    -Rockies +116
    -Astros -165
    -Pirates +137
    -Twins FF +100
    -Angels +123
    -Yankees -108

    -Astros/Royals Under 8.5 +102 (7.1)
    _________________________
    Added two more plays and may add the Mets. Looks like another extra inning loss for me with the Athletics, hahahaha. I need to start fading my picks once they go into extras.

  26. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by FUqer View Post
    Wednesday Plays 6/7

    -Athletics +102
    -Rockies +116
    -Astros -165
    -Pirates +137
    -Twins FF +100
    -Angels +123
    -Yankees -108
    -Brewers -118
    -Mets +133

    -Astros/Royals Under 8.5 +102 (7.1)
    _________________________
    Two more plays added, my discipline thrown out the window again, not a side I don't like tonight.

  27. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by FUqer View Post
    Wednesday Plays 6/7

    W - -Mets +133
    W - -Rockies +116
    W - -Yankees -108
    W - -Brewers -118
    W - -Twins FF +100
    L - -Athletics +102
    L - -Angels +123
    L - -Pirates +137
    _________________________
    Yesterday = 5-3 = +2.49
    ___________________________
    June = 14-15 for -0.46

    S/U = 12-7 for +6.06
    O/U = 2-4 for -2.34
    R/L = 0-4 for -4.18
    ---------------
    Dogs = 8-5 for +4.22
    Favs = 4-2 for +1.84
    ----------------
    Over = 1-3 for -2.34
    Under = 1-1 for +0.00
    ___________________________

    Two more extra inning losses, back to back days for the Pirates, can't do nothing but laugh at it at this point. Thank goodness the Mets didn't go there, meanwhile Buck Farmer continues to stump me.

    So far for tomorrow I like the Cardinals, Padres, Phillies, and Orioles.

  28. #63
    2daBank
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    As much as I like leake I just can't justify backing cards laying even a penny in juice right now. Lineup stinks and pen is atrocious! Only way they winning games is if starter goes 7+ Innings Allowing 2 or less so only pen guys we see are rosenthal and oh. Outside those 2 it a real mess on the back end. Reds have thrown out 3 gas cans this series and cards have combined to score all of 7 runs in those 3 games with 4 being against king gas can arroyo! Their offense is putrid.

    BTP
    Week 9
    3-2-0 178 pts

    BTP
    Week 8
    3-2-0 150 pts


  29. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    As much as I like leake I just can't justify backing cards laying even a penny in juice right now. Lineup stinks and pen is atrocious! Only way they winning games is if starter goes 7+ Innings Allowing 2 or less so only pen guys we see are rosenthal and oh. Outside those 2 it a real mess on the back end. Reds have thrown out 3 gas cans this series and cards have combined to score all of 7 runs in those 3 games with 4 being against king gas can arroyo! Their offense is putrid.
    I feel ya, look at my Pirates the last two nights, I'm pretty used to it though with them.

    The only reasons I'm considering it is, Leake usually goes pretty deep and they have to get some pride sooner or later, but I also thought there was no way they would lose tonight. The Reds also got to head out West to LA Friday and St.Louis goes Home. I'm only considering it at this point, I haven't been playing over night lately.

  30. #65
    2daBank
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    Quote Originally Posted by FUqer View Post
    I feel ya, look at my Pirates the last two nights, I'm pretty used to it though with them.

    The only reasons I'm considering it is, Leake usually goes pretty deep and they have to get some pride sooner or later, but I also thought there was no way they would lose tonight. The Reds also got to head out West to LA Friday and St.Louis goes Home. I'm only considering it at this point, I haven't been playing over night lately.
    What we paying Cecil is a fukkin joke, dude a straight up scrub and cards paying him like 9 mil a season or something ridiculous. That the biggest problem our 2 lefties they use late are both bums and odds are matheny will use them vs this cincy lineup of leake doesn't pitch at least 7.

    I'd love to play leake at this price, if this was 2 weeks ago I'd be all over it. Right now tho I just don't trust lineup to score more than few runs and reds lineup tough enough to get a few and also keep starter from going real deep. Streaks good or bad generally don't deter me but right now other than the sp's cards are playing miserable baseball.

    BTP
    Week 9
    3-2-0 178 pts

    BTP
    Week 8
    3-2-0 150 pts


  31. #66
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    SDQL 6/8

    ALL = Yesterday 10-5-1 (Total 248-200)
    SU = Yesterday 9-3 (Total 146-104)
    OU = Yesterday 1-2-1 (Total 102-96)
    ---------------------------------

    SU

    PLAY: The Yankees (77-28 +30.1% ROI)

    H and p:margin > 7 and op:runs = 0 and season > 2008 and WP < 60 and o:WP > 38.5 and rest = 0

    PLAY: The Yankees (48-18 +18.5% ROI)

    HF and p:margin > 7 and op:runs = 0 and (SG=2 or SG=3) and conference = AL



    PLAY: The Yankees (50-31 +16.6% ROI)

    HF and line<-105 and line>-120 and p:margin>7 and p:margin<10



    PLAY: The Yankees and Tigers (168-106 +11.9% ROI)

    H and p:margin >= 3 and op:runs = 0 and WP < 60 and o:WP > 38.5 and line > -230 and conference = o:conference and (month != 7 and month != 8) and 2008 <= season and SG > 1 and total > 6.5



    PLAY: The Cubs ( 100-38 +25.1% ROI)

    H and 4.8>=tA(runs)>=4.3 and 5.2>=(o:STDSERA)>=4.2 and o:conference=NL and 4.2>=(STDSERA)>=3.7 and conference=NL and 2007<=season and SG<4



    FADE: The D-Backs (117-229 -30.7% ROI)

    (so:R1 = 3 or so:R1 = 4) and SG != 2 and 5 > SGS > 1 and s:SRA < 10 and 3 < s:SHA < 10 and s:SWA < 5 and 6 > s:SSO > 1 and starter rest < 17 and s:SPT > 56 and os:SRA < 8 and s:SHRA < 4 and os:SHRA < 2 and os:SPT > 69 and o:starter rest < 18 and p:hits < 12 and 0 < ss:SSO < 12 and ss:SPT > 66 and -8 < os:margin < 6 and tA(hits,N=10) > 6.8 and oA(LOB, N=10) < 18.5 and 1.4 < oA(walks, N=10) < 4.8 and tA(walks, N=10) > 1.7



    PLAY: The Reds (980-585 +11.9% ROI)

    H and (s:SO + os:SO) > 18 and s:SHRA != 2 and p:runs != 3 and op:runs < 9 and os:fly balls > 3 and os:fly balls != 6 and o:team != Cubs and (p:walks + op:walks) < 13 and op:triples < 2 and p:doubles < 5 and 17 > op:hits > 2 and (tA(at bats@team,N=6)<36.5 or tA(at bats@team,N=6)>36.7) and tA(o:at bats@team,N=6)>31 and (tA(SHF,N=8)<26.3 or tA(SHF,N=8)>26.5)

    ------------

    OU

    UNDER: The Angels are 0-15-1 OU in the last game of a series as a dog when playing a team that has a better record - since Aug 07, 2016.

    team=Angels and LGS and D and WP < o:WP and date>=20160807



    OVER: Teams with Starting Pitchers who start on the Road with an ERA over 3 and less than 4 are 95-57-6 OU +18.7% ROI this season.
    (Marlins)

    A and STDSERA > 3 and STDSERA < 4 and season=2017



    OVER: Teams on at least 3 straight Overs. ( 93-68-13 +9.9% ROI)
    (D-Backs, Orioles, Pirates, Royals, Astros)

    date>=20170420 and p:O and p2:O and p3:O



    ________________

    SU

    Yankees
    Tigers
    Cubs
    Padres
    Reds

    OU

    Marlins/Pirates Over
    Astros/Royals Over
    Angels/Tigers Under
    Padres/D-Backs Over
    Orioles/Nationals Over
    ___________________________________

    10-5 for the 2nd night in a row and besides Monday which has some pretty shitty trends anyway on a short card, my SDQL has been killing it for the last week, I hope somebody's been playing them. I haven't even went through 2 folders for small sample sized trends and I'm not sure if I'll get to them today, hoping to go kayaking later.

  32. #67
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    Thursday Plays 6/8

    -Padres +127
    -Phillies +106
    -Orioles +132
    -Yankees -117
    _________________________
    I debated about playing FF on Padres and Phillies but decided not too. If I have time, I'll explain the picks later.

  33. #68
    2daBank
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    Nice job bro..

    Love me some kayaking!

    BTP
    Week 9
    3-2-0 178 pts

    BTP
    Week 8
    3-2-0 150 pts


  34. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    Nice job bro..

    Love me some kayaking!
    That's my favorite thing to do and one of the few things I can still do. I used to play sports non-stop and then had brain surgery and it messed up my leg and now wear a brace for life and can't run at all. It's all good though, becomes normal after awhile.

    Anyway, what do you think about the Over in the Brewers game?

  35. #70
    2daBank
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    I honestly didn't even look cause I had no clue who that guy pitching for milw was, I tend to shy away from the unknown. Lol.

    Taking quick glance right now I see he a 30 year old career minor leaguer w a fastball sitting several ticks below 90! Not good, lol. If roof open and ump
    agreeable don't have a problem with. I will say cueto has had some fantastic starts at that park in recent years. he seems to have lost a little this season so not sure what I'd expect from him.

    BTP
    Week 9
    3-2-0 178 pts

    BTP
    Week 8
    3-2-0 150 pts


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