Over the past few seasons I have tested out various betting systems and strategies for first 5 innings betting. I have been able to refine a system that has been successful for me with profit over each of the past 2+ seasons. I have found that the first 5 innings are more predictable because it eliminates the variance and uncertainty related to bullpen usage, late inning pinch hitting, and managerial decisions. Additionally, the inputs for the first 5 innings are relatively consistent because many times the starters and starting position players will be in for the first 5 innings. This way, I can isolate the favorable starting pitching match ups in relation to starting lineups.
I have found that using the sabormetrics splits are an extremely effective way of predicting the outcomes of each particular at bat and, in turn, the outcomes of the first 5 innings. I make picks on the 1st 5 inning money lines, run lines, and totals. Most of my plays will be posted around 1 hour before start, after starting line ups have been announced. There are few position players that make a big enough difference to affect a play but there are late scratches due to unknown injuries or rest that you will want to watch out for (for example: Miguel Cabrera sat yesterday, taking a play on the White Sox from a borderline play a strong play).
If you have any questions on picks or rationale behind a pick feel free to DM me on Twitter @lunchmoneysport and I will try to send you a write up on any particular play. My goal is to continue to return a profit each month and hopefully we can bust all those asshole bookies out there.
I have found that using the sabormetrics splits are an extremely effective way of predicting the outcomes of each particular at bat and, in turn, the outcomes of the first 5 innings. I make picks on the 1st 5 inning money lines, run lines, and totals. Most of my plays will be posted around 1 hour before start, after starting line ups have been announced. There are few position players that make a big enough difference to affect a play but there are late scratches due to unknown injuries or rest that you will want to watch out for (for example: Miguel Cabrera sat yesterday, taking a play on the White Sox from a borderline play a strong play).
If you have any questions on picks or rationale behind a pick feel free to DM me on Twitter @lunchmoneysport and I will try to send you a write up on any particular play. My goal is to continue to return a profit each month and hopefully we can bust all those asshole bookies out there.
