[tps8068]

Over the past few seasons I have tested out various betting systems and strategies for first 5 innings betting. I have been able to refine a system that has been successful for me with profit over each of the past 2+ seasons. I have found that the first 5 innings are more predictable because it eliminates the variance and uncertainty related to bullpen usage, late inning pinch hitting, and managerial decisions. Additionally, the inputs for the first 5 innings are relatively consistent because many times the starters and starting position players will be in for the first 5 innings. This way, I can isolate the favorable starting pitching match ups in relation to starting lineups.

I have found that using the sabormetrics splits are an extremely effective way of predicting the outcomes of each particular at bat and, in turn, the outcomes of the first 5 innings. I make picks on the 1st 5 inning money lines, run lines, and totals. Most of my plays will be posted around 1 hour before start, after starting line ups have been announced. There are few position players that make a big enough difference to affect a play but there are late scratches due to unknown injuries or rest that you will want to watch out for (for example: Miguel Cabrera sat yesterday, taking a play on the White Sox from a borderline play a strong play).

If you have any questions on picks or rationale behind a pick feel free to DM me on Twitter @lunchmoneysport and I will try to send you a write up on any particular play. My goal is to continue to return a profit each month and hopefully we can bust all those asshole bookies out there.

[tps8068]

All plays to win 1 unit unless otherwise stated.
3 plays for this afternoon:

Phillies -.5 (+105)
Phi/Cin O5 (-110)
Arizona -.5 (-105)

[scarolinakid]

Tailing sir. Lets get this $$$$$$$$$$$

[GoodBadUgly]

Over the past few seasons I have tested out various betting systems and strategies for first 5 innings betting. I have been able to refine a system that has been successful for me with profit over each of the past 2+ seasons. I have found that the first 5 innings are more predictable because it eliminates the variance and uncertainty related to bullpen usage, late inning pinch hitting, and managerial decisions. Additionally, the inputs for the first 5 innings are relatively consistent because many times the starters and starting position players will be in for the first 5 innings. This way, I can isolate the favorable starting pitching match ups in relation to starting lineups.

I have found that using the sabormetrics splits are an extremely effective way of predicting the outcomes of each particular at bat and, in turn, the outcomes of the first 5 innings. I make picks on the 1st 5 inning money lines, run lines, and totals. Most of my plays will be posted around 1 hour before start, after starting line ups have been announced. There are few position players that make a big enough difference to affect a play but there are late scratches due to unknown injuries or rest that you will want to watch out for (for example: Miguel Cabrera sat yesterday, taking a play on the White Sox from a borderline play a strong play).

If you have any questions on picks or rationale behind a pick feel free to DM me on Twitter @lunchmoneysport and I will try to send you a write up on any particular play. My goal is to continue to return a profit each month and hopefully we can bust all those asshole bookies out there.

tps8086, I, too, have thought about focusing on the first five angle to avoid the uncertainties of bullpen. But I was thinking...the lines makers must have had the same thought and must have factored all that into the lines.

Hope you will be successful on your angle. I' be reading your thread.

[tps8068]

1-1-1
-.05u

[tps8068]

tps8086, I, too, have thought about focusing on the first five angle to avoid the uncertainties of bullpen. But I was thinking...the lines makers must have had the same thought and must have factored all that into the lines.

Hope you will be successful on your angle. I' be reading your thread.

They definitely do but I find it pretty difficult to track who in the bullpen is available from day to day and without following each team closely it is almost impossible to predict who the manager will use in certain situations in the game. Therefore, any bullpen factors I would use would just be general for the team and not specific to the certain situations.

[tps8068]

Dodgers -110

[tps8068]

2-1-1 yesterday for a +.95U day. I probably won't track pushes long-term since they don't impact the bottom line

[tps8068]

Cincy -120
NYY/OAK U4.5 (-115)
BOS -.5 (-135)

​Should have more coming later

[tps8068]

det/chw o5.5 (-110)
col -.5 (+115)

[tps8068]

YTD Results:
5-3 +1.45U

[tps8068]

Houston -110
COL -.5 (-115)

[tps8068]

tough break to go 0-2 yesterday. big card today, a lot of good value out there. picks will be trickling in throughout the afternoon

YTD Results: 5-5 -.90U

[tps8068]

LAD -110
Minn -125

[tps8068]

OAK/CLE U5 (-125)
Bauer is a monster 1st 2 times through the order but at their price I didn't find any value with Cleveland but Sonny Gray is really coming on strong last few outings after his injury. I expect a good pitching matchup, at least through the first 5 innings.

[tps8068]

​tb -115

[tps8068]

Atl +115

[tps8068]

2-3 yesterday. we've been the victim of some back defense and tough breaks
SD +170

[tps8068]

SD +170 pushes

[tps8068]

bos/chw o5 (-115)
tb -.5 (-110)

[skyscrapers]

I played it safe and took SD +0.5 and won!!!