Blue Jays vs Dodgers World Series Game 5 Wednesday Picks & Betting Splits

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  • SBR Andy
    Administrator
    • 02-09-22
    • 5202

    #1
    Blue Jays vs Dodgers World Series Game 5 Wednesday Picks & Betting Splits
    The World Series is now tied 2-2 after Toronto won Game 4 by a score of 6-2. SBR's Dustin Saracini breaks down the Game 5 matchup in his Blue Jays vs Dodgers prediction:

    Game prediction: Blue Jays +1.5 (-120 via FanDuel)

    Over/Under pick: Under 8 (-107 via DraftKings)

    "I expect a much better Blake Snell in Game 5 than the one you saw in Game 1. Snell put forth his worst postseason outing in the World Series opener, allowing five earned runs across five innings pitched while scattering eight hits. Before that, he hadn't allowed a run across his last 14 innings, giving up just two hits while striking out 19. The long rest in between starts (11 days) might have had something to do with it. We'll see a more locked-in Snell tonight.

    Trey Yesavage won the battle against Snell in Game 1, tossing four innings of two-run baseball, but will he be able to limit the Dodgers' bats again?

    For one, I think we'll see more of his splitter tonight, his go-to strikeout pitch that he only used 18% of the time in his first World Series start. In comparison, he used that pitch 26% of the time during the regular season. While the Dodgers are a good splitter-hitting team, they haven't seen one from Yesavage's arm angle, and I expect him to lean on it tonight to get the job done.

    No matter how you squeeze it, this will be a tight matchup with razor-thin margins. Take the Blue Jays on the run line for safe-keeping, and the Under. I'm locking these in as part of my best Blue Jays vs. Dodgers predictions tonight."

    Player prop bet: Alejandro Kirk 2+ H/R/RBI (+128 via DraftKings) ​

    "I expect a much better Blake Snell in Game 5 than the one you saw in Game 1. Snell - who's featured in our Blue Jays vs. Dodgers player props - put forth his worst postseason outing in the World Series opener, allowing five earned runs across five innings pitched while scattering eight hits. Before that, he hadn't allowed a run across his last 14 innings, giving up just two hits while striking out 19. The long rest in between starts (11 days) might have had something to do with it. We'll see a more locked-in Snell tonight.

    Can the rookie go toe-to-toe and cash the Under?
    Trey Yesavage won the battle against Snell in Game 1, tossing four innings of two-run baseball, but will he be able to limit the Dodgers' bats again?

    For one, I think we'll see more of his splitter tonight, his go-to strikeout pitch that he only used 18% of the time in his first World Series start. In comparison, he used that pitch 26% of the time during the regular season. While the Dodgers are a good splitter-hitting team, they haven't seen one from Yesavage's arm angle, and I expect him to lean on it tonight to get the job done.

    No matter how you squeeze it, this will be a tight matchup with razor-thin margins. Take the Blue Jays on the run line for safe-keeping, and the Under. I'm locking these in as part of my best Blue Jays vs. Dodgers predictions tonight.​"

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  • SBR Andy
    Administrator
    • 02-09-22
    • 5202

    #2
    SBR's Mike Spector has his best Blue Jays vs Dodgers Game 5 player prop bets ready to go:

    Blake Snell to record the win (+123 via DraftKings)

    "Dodgers southpaw Blake Snell allowed a career postseason-high eight hits over five innings in Game 1 of this series. The issues largely stemmed from an 18.8% whiff percentage on his changeup, which was his second-lowest in a game this season. In the regular season, he had a 43.5% whiff percentage on that pitch, and a 65.5% whiff rate through his first three playoff starts.

    Toronto’s lineup has done an excellent job of fouling pitches off against Snell. Its 22 foul balls in Game 1 were the second-most in a game against Snell this season, and the Blue Jays also had 19 against him in a regular season start.

    All of that being said, Los Angeles was still tied with Toronto 2-2 prior to the Blue Jays’ nine-run explosion in the sixth inning. And I expect the Dodgers to hit Trey Yesavage hard in this road start, especially since his 5.93 ERA and nine walks in his last 13 2/3 innings spanning three starts are not inspiring."


    Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 total bases (-145 via BetMGM)

    "Entering Game 4, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s 24 hits were the most in a single postseason run in Blue Jays franchise history. Prior to this season, only Paul Molitor in 1993 had accrued at least 21 hits in a single postseason.

    Guerrero went 1-for-2 with a single and a walk in Game 1 against Snell. But I expect Los Angeles will pitch the Blue Jays slugger very carefully in this game, especially since leadoff man George Springer, who entered Game 3 with the best career slugging percentage in World Series history, could be out of the lineup again.​"


    Will Smith to hit a home run (+509 via DraftKings)​

    "With Snell only allowing a 0.4 HR/9 rate and just one home run to a left-handed batter all season, one would be wise to focus their best home run prediction on a Dodgers slugger.

    Including his stats from the minor leagues all through the postseason, Trey Yesavage’s splits clearly suggest he is tougher on left-handed batters.

    Yesavage has allowed a .141/.238/.222 slash line against lefties, while pitching to a 40.4% strikeout rate, and allowing three home runs among the 270 batters faced in that split. Meanwhile, seven of 242 at-bats against right-handed hitters have resulted in a home run, while he has allowed a .205/.289/.358 slash line, and recorded a 36.8% strikeout rate.

    Will Smith had hit safely in seven consecutive games while totaling 13 total bases before Game 4. His 34 career postseason RBIs as a catcher are the third-most in MLB history, and I am backing him to go deep for the second time this series.​"
    Comment
    • SBR Andy
      Administrator
      • 02-09-22
      • 5202

      #3
      World Series Game 5 betting data from BetMGM:

      Most bet props (tickets)
      1. Blake Snell Under 6.5 Strikeouts -105
      2. Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Home runs +180
      3. Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Hits -155
      4. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 Home runs +400
      5. Myles Straw Over 0.5 Hits +120

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      World Series Winner Betting:

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      • SBR Andy
        Administrator
        • 02-09-22
        • 5202

        #4
        Blue Jays vs Dodgers Game 5 betting insights from DraftKings:

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