NL Wild Card: Reds vs Dodgers Predictions

SBR Andy · 09-30-25, 08:36 AM

Game 1 Reds vs Dodgers player prop bets from SBR's Sean Tomlinson:

Hunter Greene Under 5.5 strikeouts (+120 via BetMGM)

"Beyond Freddie Freeman, who we'll explore a little more below, there are a few other righty mashers in the Dodgers' lineup. That list always includes MLB MVP odds favorite Shohei Ohtani, who's posting a 1.076 OPS against righties. Then there's Max Muncy and his .923 OPS when facing a righty. Overall, the team owns a .770 OPS when a right-hander is on the mound (third).

The Dodgers then possess plenty of power to fight fire with their own napalm as Hunter Greene throws his imposing fastball. And Greene has shown he's susceptible to allowing loud contact with an average exit velocity that sits in just the 19th percentile, and a hard-hit rate in the 15th.

That vulnerability factored into a 7-0 Los Angeles win during Greene's last start against the Dodgers in late August, an appearance when he recorded just three strikeouts."

Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (+120 via BetMGM)

"Feddie Freeman packs serious power against righties, with much of his home runs this season coming in that situation (16 of 24).

Of course, Greene isn't your garden-variety righty, and his trademark is searing heat with a fastball that averages 99.5 mph, which ranks in the 99th percentile leaguewide, according to Baseball Savant. But Freeman thrives against fire, and far more so than when facing any breaking pitch.

He posted a .310 batting average with a .536 expected slugging percentage against fastballs this season, and there's a chasm between that and his .235 batting average and .380 expected slugging against breaking pitches. Unsurprisingly, Greene leans on his blazing four-seamer heavily too while throwing it 54.2% of the time."

Blake Snell Over 15.5 outs recorded (+114 via DraftKings) 

"There's a little more risk associated with backing any outs recorded Over for a starter during the postseason. The MLB playoffs are a whole different animal than the regular season in terms of managerial decisions. Matchups are played with even finer details, and the slightest hint of trouble can lead to a call to the bullpen.

However, that might not apply quite so much to the Dodgers, at least not with Blake Snell on the mound. He hasn't been officially announced as the starter yet, but Dave Roberts said it's a "pretty good bet," according to MLB.com.

It should be an easy decision, as Snell's brilliance since an early August return from injury has translated to a shining 2.35 ERA across 61 1/3 innings. He's also pitched into the sixth inning during six of his last seven starts, and he'd be the ideal candidate to keep the ball away from a 28th-ranked Dodgers bullpen for as long as possible. The southpaw who boasts a 10.6 K/9 gets to face a Reds lineup that's been struggling significantly against lefties too while posting a .653 OPS (25th)."

SBR Andy · 10-01-25, 09:42 AM

Reds vs Dodgers Game 2 player prop bets from SBR's Josh Goldberg:

Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 walks (+100 via Caesars)

"Ohtani tormented the Reds in Game 1 while hitting a pair of dingers across five at-bats. He also struck out three times, but now Cincinnati will surely be much more selective with how the team's pitchers attack the Dodgers' superstar while on the brink of elimination.

The slugger ranked sixth among all MLB hitters with a very strong 15% regular-season walk rate. That makes his player prop appealing at plus money."

Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 17.5 outs recorded (-106 via FanDuel)

"Yamamoto was named the NL Pitcher of the Month for September after registering a 0.67 ERA with 34 strikeouts across 27 innings.

The Dodgers have endured bullpen issues all season, and that came up again in Game 1 after a seven-inning gem from Blake Snell. The Reds were 23rd in wRC+ and 25th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching during the regular season.

I expect Dodgers manager Dave Roberts to let Yamamoto empty the tank and pitch as long as possible while trying to minimize the impact the bullpen might have on Game 2."

Ben Rortvedt Under 0.5 hits, runs, and RBIs (+113 via DraftKings) 

"Rortvedt drove in a run while managing a hit over his three Game 1 at-bats. I’m still very comfortable fading a hitter who finished the season with a .152 batting average and a .445 OPS.

I was happy to take this player prop at plus money through DraftKings, as some of the other sports betting sites are offering it as high as -105."