NL Wild Card: Padres vs Cubs Predictions

SBR Andy · 09-30-25, 08:39 AM

Game 1 Padres vs Cubs player prop bets from SBR's Josh Goldberg:

Nick Pivetta Under 4.5 strikeouts (+120 via BetMGM)

"Padres manager Mike Shildt has arguably the league’s deepest bullpen, something I expect him to go to early and often now that the calendar has shifted to October.

Nick Pivetta’s numbers were much worse pitching away from the friendly confines of Petco Park in San Diego. He had a 3.55 ERA and 77 strikeouts in 78 2/3 innings on the road, compared to a 2.36 ERA and 113 strikeouts in 103 innings at home. The Cubs hit right-handed pitching well during the regular season and owned the sixth-best team strikeout rate (20.7%)."

Carson Kelly to record a hit: No (+110 via BetMGM)

"Carson Kelly struggled to find his swing down the stretch of the regular season, hitting just .174 over his final 23 at-bats and .198 across the last 30 games of the season.

The Cubs catcher did manage two hits against Pivetta earlier this season, but that came early in the campaign when Kelly was red-hot at the plate. Kelly wasn’t the same hitter after the All-Star break, hitting .218 with a .596 OPS in 49 games."

Manny Machado Over 0.5 RBI (+139 via DraftKings) 

"Manny Machado has five hits in 13 career at-bats (.385 average) with three RBI against Cubs lefty Matthew Boyd. He’s entrenched in the No. 3 spot in San Diego’s lineup, which should afford him some opportunities with runners on base if the Padres can create traffic against Boyd.

Machado did major damage against off-speed pitches in September, hitting .400 with a hard-hit rate of nearly 89%. That could be a recipe for success against Boyd’s curveball, which allowed a .286 batting average and .500 slugging percentage during the regular season."

JAKEPEAVY21 · 09-30-25, 12:11 PM

Pivetta has been the one starter for SD that routinely goes 6-7 innings. Hopefully he is lights out today and the bullpen is not needed much, if at all. That said, one of his few rough starts of the season came early in the season at Wrigley.

SBR Andy · 10-01-25, 09:09 AM

Padres vs Cubs Game 2 player prop bets from SBR's Josh Goldberg:

Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs (-110 via DraftKings)

"Tatis was quiet in Game 1, but I don't expect that to continue in a win-or-go-home situation.

Tatis closed the season on a heater at the plate, hitting .321 with 15 runs, five home runs, and nine RBIs over the last 15 games. The superstar outfielder is a notorious postseason performer, with a career 1.231 OPS and six home runs in 14 contests."

Dylan Cease Over 3.5 hits allowed (-134 via DraftKings)

"Cease allowed fewer than four hits in just seven of his 32 starts in 2025. He also struggled mightily on the road, posting a 1-9 record with a 5.58 ERA and 76 hits allowed in 80 2/3 innings.

And he allowed seven hits over 5 ⅔ innings in a home start against the Cubs back in April. The Padres likely won’t have Cease on a long leash facing elimination with a deep bullpen. Despite that, I think the Cubs will make life tough on him for however long he’s in the game."

Michael Busch Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs (+121 via DraftKings) 

"Busch didn’t do much at the dish in Chicago’s Game 1 victory. However, he should find some immediate confidence with Cease on the mound.

Both of Busch’s career hits against Cease have gone for home runs, and his success against fastballs and offspeed pitches during the regular season should be an ideal fit against Cease’s heavy dose of fastballs and sliders."

SBR Andy · 10-02-25, 08:31 AM

Game 3 Padres vs Cubs player prop bets from SBR's Josh Goldberg:

Yu Darvish Under 3.5 strikeouts (-106 via FanDuel)

"The Padres pulled Dylan Cease despite his 3 2/3 scoreless innings with five strikeouts in Game 2. There’s no reason to expect San Diego manager Mike Shildt to approach the decisive game in the series any differently.

I’m inclined to fade Darvish after he struck out less than a batter per inning pitched during the regular season. His numbers were also much worse away from Petco Park, with a 7.26 ERA and only 27 strikeouts in 31 innings."

Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs (-107 via DraftKings)

"Merrill crushed right-handed pitching during the regular season, posting an .844 OPS with 14 of his 16 home runs. He also had a higher batting average and on-base percentage on the road.

Merrill did major damage against both fastballs and offspeed pitches in 2025. That could be a recipe for success against Jameson Taillon’s cutter and sweeper, which allowed slugging percentages of .634 and .576, respectively, during the regular season."

Ian Happ Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs (+107 via DraftKings) 

"Happ has been quiet in the first two games of the series. I still like getting this player prop at plus money as Happ’s balanced offensive profile should line up well against Darvish.

He was a much better hitter at Wrigley Field in 2025, posting better numbers in every major offensive category than his statistics on the road. I’m confident Happ can tap into the offensive momentum he built in the second half of the season, when he registered an .859 OPS, compared to the .701 mark he managed before the All-Star break."