AL Wild Card: Red Sox vs Yankees Predictions

stevenash · 09-29-25, 12:46 PM

Crochet all day.
Kid has a cannon for an arm, and nothing fazes him.
Struck out 12 Yanks earlier this month in a 6-4 win (Judge took him deep twice, but that's forgivable)

Boston at + money is value, so is the over 7.5 K prop.

That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.

JAKEPEAVY21 · 09-29-25, 02:53 PM

^
Agreed nasher, Crochet at + money? Sign me up

SBR Andy · 09-30-25, 08:34 AM

Game 1 Red Sox vs Yankees players prop bets from SBR's Mike Spector:

Garrett Crochet Under 7.5 strikeouts (+102 via FanDuel)

"Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet has logged three games with double-digit strikeouts since the calendar turned to August, and two came against the Yankees. Overall, Crochet is 3-0 with a 3.29 ERA and .601 OPS allowed in four starts against New York this season.

Crochet recorded 18-plus outs in all four of those outings, and he's been given a 61.24% implied probability through DraftKings’ -158 odds to do so again. The southpaw has also thrown three career postseason innings, with six of the nine outs coming via the strikeout.

However, I'm making a contrarian play on this Under since Tuesday's game will be his first career postseason start in what will be a raucous Yankee Stadium environment. And after ranking in the bottom 10 for most of the year in strikeout rate during home games against left-handed pitching, the Yankees sat in the top half of the league in that metric during September."

Aaron Judge Under 1.5 total bases (-148 via DraftKings)

"Aaron Judge became the first player in MLB history to win a batting title and hit 50-plus home runs in the same season. Though he led the majors in on-base percentage, slugging, wOBA, wOPS, wRC+, and fWAR, his postseason struggles have been well-documented.

Judge has slashed just .205/.318/.450 across 58 career playoff games. He's also just 3-for-15 with 11 strikeouts in his career against Crochet. Though two of those hits have been home runs, I'm fading Judge’s chances of going deep in this game when facing a pitcher who has allowed five or fewer hits in each of his previous four starts.

Adding to this play is the fact that Judge led the league with 36 intentional walks, and free passes don't count toward a player’s total bases."

Cody Bellinger Over 0.5 RBI (+220 via FanDuel) 

"It may seem blasphemous to back a left-handed hitter’s player props when facing Crochet, as the southpaw has allowed a .166/.193/.262 slash line to left-handed batters this season. But Cody Bellinger has put up decent enough career numbers against Crochet that I feel confident making this one of my best Red Sox vs. Yankees player prop wagers.

Bellinger is 5-for-14 with a home run in his career against Crochet. He also raked against left-handed pitchers this year while slashing .353/.415/.601, making him and Judge the only Yankees with an OPS of 1.000 or better in that split (minimum 30 AB).

The outfielder finished the regular season with just one RBI across his final 10 games. But this is a great price considering his career success against Crochet, and when facing lefties all season."

SBR Andy · 10-01-25, 09:12 AM

Red Sox vs Yankees Game 2 player prop bets from SBR's Mike Spector:

Brayan Bello Under 14.5 outs recorded (-114 via FanDuel)

"This is Bello’s first career postseason start, and that will likely have Red Sox manager Alex Cora on pins and needles hoping he can navigate the early innings well.

Bello was not a huge innings eater for the club in September, as he recorded 15 or fewer outs in four of five starts. And in his career, the righty allows a .305 BAbip and a .758 OPS when facing batters for a third time. That suggests Cora will be eager to turn things over to a bullpen that ranked in the top 12 in xFIP and K-BB% over the final month of the regular season."

Carlos Rodon Under 1.5 earned runs (-106 via Caesars)

"After cashing this play for Max Fried with my best MLB player props yesterday, I am going back to the well tonight with the same play for Yankees southpaw Carlos Rodon, since Boston ranked 22nd in wRC+ since Roman Anthony landed on the IL.

Rodon finished the regular season with eight quality starts in his final nine appearances. The lone non-quality start was when he lasted 5 2/3 innings on the road against Boston, as he struggled with command (five walks) despite allowing just one base hit. But Rodon got his control issues in order with one walk allowed in each of his final four starts, so I expect a dominant outing tonight.

The southpaw has been especially tough on two batters that project to be in the top four of the Red Sox lineup, as Jarren Duran and Trevor Story have combined to go 4-for-26 with nine strikeouts against Rodon.

Rodon’s 38.9% hard-hit rate was his second-lowest of the last seven seasons, and his xERA and xBA that rank in the 79th percentile or better gives me confidence in this play."

Ben Rice Over 0.5 RBI (+222 via DraftKings) 

"Ben Rice batted .304 with a .943 OPS over his final 44 games. Fellow Yankee sluggers Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are a combined 4-for-31 with one extra-base hit and 15 strikeouts against Bello, so more of New York’s lefty bats like Rice will likely have to do more of the heavy lifting from a run-production standpoint.

I am not banking on a lefty like Jazz Chisholm Jr. to record an RBI, as he is still dealing with soreness in his forearm from being hit by a pitch in the regular season finale. But these are great odds for a batter like Rice, who ended the regular season with eight RBI over his final six games."

SBR Andy · 10-02-25, 08:33 AM

Game 3 Red Sox vs Yankees player prop bets from SBR's Mike Spector:

Aaron Judge Over 0.5 RBI (+132 via DraftKings)

"My best Red Sox vs. Yankees player prop pick is in line with me backing Aaron Judge as one of my best home run predictions today.

Before Judge struck out with a runner on second base in the seventh inning of yesterday’s win, he had started the series 4-for-4 with men on. That has resulted in just one RBI through two games as all four of his hits in the series have been singles. But it also suggests that he is seeing the ball well and is in line for positive regression from an RBI standpoint if he continues to find his way on base.

With Boston starting the game with southpaw Connelly Early, that increases Judge’s RBI chances, as he had an eye-popping .789 slugging percentage and 1.279 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season."

Cam Schlittler Under 4.5 strikeouts (+123 via DraftKings)

"Both Max Fried and Carlos Rodon pitched well enough for the Yankees that they should already be home resting to get ready for a weekend series against the Toronto Blue Jays. But Boston held just an 85 wRC+ with the fourth-worst BB/K ratio over the last 30 days against left-handed pitchers, and I expect more success from its lineup against the righty Cam Schlittler.

The Red Sox had the ninth-lowest strikeout rate in road games against right-handed pitchers since the start of August. And while Schlittler averaged a 10.5 K/9 rate in eight home starts, his gaudy strikeout numbers are inflated by the fact that he made 10 of his final 12 starts against non-playoff teams.

Schlittler has an O/U of 11.5 outs recorded (down from 13.5 overnight), and he would stay Under this projected total even if he averages one strikeout per inning if oddsmakers are correct and he is out by the end of the fourth."

Masataka Yoshida Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+114 via DraftKings) 

"Masataka Yoshida has two hits in three at-bats in pinch-hit and relief roles this series but should be a fixture in today’s starting lineup now with a right-handed pitcher on the mound.

Yoshida has 22 RBI in 31 games (regular season and postseason) against the Yankees, and manager Alex Cora will likely take advantage of his production from the end of the regular season by inserting him in the leadoff spot. Yoshida cashed this Over in nine of the final 12 regular-season games, as he has slashed .364/.383/.568 over the last 15 days."