It's Dinger Tuesday and SBR's Mike Spector has his best home run predictions ready to go for September 16th:
Marcell Ozuna to hit a home run- Game 1 (+625 via bet365)
Trevor Story to hit a home run (+460 via FanDuel)
Cody Bellinger to hit a home run (+440 via FanDuel)
Randy Arozarena to hit a home run (+503 via DraftKings)
Best parlay odds: +111334 via FanDuel ($10 to win $11,133.44)
Best bet: Trevor Story (Red Sox) to hit a home run (+460 FanDuel)
"Red Sox slugger Trevor Story leads the team in home runs (24) and RBI (91). Although he has homered just once in his last 11 games, he has an excellent opportunity to belt his third home run of the month when facing Jeffrey Springs, one of nine pitchers to allow at least 28 home runs this season.
Springs’ .446 slugging percentage allowed to right-handed batters compared to .369 against lefties does not jump off the page as an egregious difference. But 25 of his 28 home runs allowed have been to right-handed batters, and the difference between him allowing a long ball in every 5.2% of at-bats in that split compared to 2.3% against left-handed hitters is striking.
Story has hit more home runs (15) away from home than at Fenway Park (nine). But his batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS are all better at home, which speaks to his more consistent contact with the Green Monster as a backdrop.
Springs has allowed at least one home run in eight of his last nine starts, making Story’s 17.86% implied probability to homer a great value play based on FanDuel’s +460 odds."
Marcell Ozuna to hit a home run- Game 1 (+625 via bet365)
Trevor Story to hit a home run (+460 via FanDuel)
Cody Bellinger to hit a home run (+440 via FanDuel)
Randy Arozarena to hit a home run (+503 via DraftKings)
Best parlay odds: +111334 via FanDuel ($10 to win $11,133.44)
Best bet: Trevor Story (Red Sox) to hit a home run (+460 FanDuel)
"Red Sox slugger Trevor Story leads the team in home runs (24) and RBI (91). Although he has homered just once in his last 11 games, he has an excellent opportunity to belt his third home run of the month when facing Jeffrey Springs, one of nine pitchers to allow at least 28 home runs this season.
Springs’ .446 slugging percentage allowed to right-handed batters compared to .369 against lefties does not jump off the page as an egregious difference. But 25 of his 28 home runs allowed have been to right-handed batters, and the difference between him allowing a long ball in every 5.2% of at-bats in that split compared to 2.3% against left-handed hitters is striking.
Story has hit more home runs (15) away from home than at Fenway Park (nine). But his batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS are all better at home, which speaks to his more consistent contact with the Green Monster as a backdrop.
Springs has allowed at least one home run in eight of his last nine starts, making Story’s 17.86% implied probability to homer a great value play based on FanDuel’s +460 odds."