CK's 2025 MLB Thread

[atthehalf]

Thanks for the record update and explanation. Sorry about the bad luck. Thanks for all of your work and for the early posts.

And then the Dodgers gave me another one run loss last night LOL!

[Yensel]

Thanks for the record update and explanation. Sorry about the bad luck. Thanks for all of your work and for the early posts.

[atthehalf]

MLB record update (Monitored at The Action Network renosharpreportbetting)

70-76-5 (48%) -7.93 UNITS ROI -4.44%

Interesting tidbit pointed out by the moderators there at The Action Network-I have 22 one run losses so far this season on totals and sides and further that my good bets vs bad bets is HUGE on the good side as I have a luck score that verifies my record should be much much better than it is. The area where the most issue has been so far this season is with RL moves where the teams are winning straight up but not by 2 for full game moves or tying for FF.

No sweat. The arms are starting to get well oiled and yes Spencer Strider is coming back this week! Yay!

[atthehalf]

A good viable option would be to take those 4 and blast them into a 4 way parlay-knowing that the joes are completely on the other side in streaming..... and more importantly in a conventional sense. I highly doubt that Carrasco will give a 5 frame 3/1 K/W ratio-trust me-my stomach hurt when I made that move-but it was too hard to pass up an opportunity to get a stake of a 99% profit share. However again citing the conventional sense here-the Bombers lost their series to the Giants and I seriously doubt that they will show up to the field in a jovial mood today All hail the bowling pin bats!

[atthehalf]

Use percentages of note that I used today in my 10 teamer along with some bats. Yes I am trying to break the piggy bank folks. I didn't use Baz in my roster for today as he is picking up steam amongst the sharps in the group and his use rate skyrocketed over the past few days since his last start

Giants (Roupp) 10%
Jays (Lucas) 10%
Bombers (Carrasco) 1%
Metropolitans (Holmes) 17%

[atthehalf]

With a line of 6 frames and 10 K's and no walks Hayden Wesneski did a fine job of cashing in for an 87% profit share yesterday. I made all kinds of solid money this weekend streaming.

Ok so for today there's more

Metropolitans Grant Holmes (17%)

Kids got electric stuff and no one is noticing. I'd say K'ing up 29% of all batters faced is pretty good.

His K's line is absurd at 4.5 -155 so for him to be used in this conventional sense may want to go with him FF with his team to back him. For more bang for your buck use him in a 10 teamer and watch your earnings go through the fuckin roof! Absolutely no one is taking him in a 10 teamer

CRUMBS POD STREAMER Metropolitans+105 FF Holmes

And here are the rest ( I made a move on the Bombers last night-most MLB bettors have no problem going with high vigorous so the going rate of -150 shouldn't be much of an issue. Also Ben Rice is priced high as hell-but he is very good at his craft so I went on and did it. I got out of my comfort zone and went with -160 for him to get a hit

FILTERED 4/14/25


Rot.#902 Buccos-1.5 Skenes 2 UNITS
Rot.#910 Bombers-125 Carrasco 2 UNITS
Giants/Blunts UNDER 4.5 -115 FF Roupp/Walker
Dodgers Team Total OVER 5.5 -105
Bombers (Rice) OVER 0.0.5 HITS -160
Astronauts (Alvarez) OVER 1.5 BASES +120
Jays (Lucas)-120 ML FF
Tigers (Skubal)-0.5 -110 FF RL
Fathers (Cease) -0.5 -113 FF RL
Cardinals (Gray) OVER 5.5 K's -130
Rays (Baz) OVER 6.5 K's +115

[atthehalf]

Yesterday was one of those days where everyone who only made my moves on the conventional sides and totals went down in flames and those who used my STREAMING options made a TON OF MONEY.

Rot.#916 Orioles-125 FF ML Sugano (9%) 91% share split at stake LOSS
Rot.#917 Red Sox-0.5 -110 FF RL Fitts (6%) 94% share split at stake WIN
Rot.#905 Buccos+105 FF ML Heaney (6%) 94% share split at stake WIN
Rot.#914 Twinkies-115 FF ML Paddack (1%) 99% share split at stake LOSS
Rot.#923 Wanderers+123 Rocker (22%) 78% share split at stake LOSS
Rot.#909 Rox+0.5 -105 FF RL Dollander (11%) 89% share split at stake WIN
Rot.#919 Royals+112 Lorenzen (6%)94% share split at stake WIN
Rot.#901 Blunts-0.5 -110 FF Sanchez (86%) 14% share split at stake LOSS

I took losses with Rocker, Sugano, Paddack and Sanchez, but will get paid a ridiculous amount of money with 94% share splits on Fitts, Lorenzen and Heaney, and an 89% share of Dollander. I am going to roll it over to Monday for my pick up.

For today my CRUMBS TREAMING POD is

(Astronauts) Hayden Wesneski (13%)

I have hope that he is more than a sweeper first arm, and that his great extension against a questionable Halos lineup leads to a 5 frame 3/1 K/W ratio day

Wesneski vs Halos 35 AB; 9K; 2BB; .086 AVG, .135 OBP; .286 SLG; .421 OPS

Exit velocity 87 MPH (great), Hard Hit Rate 33.3% (great) , Expected Weighted On Base Advantage .246 (great), Expected Batting Average .181 (great), Expected Slugging Percentage .291 (great); K% 24.4 (good not great); 6.7% BB; and 3% Barrels (otherworldly great)

All of this for an opportunity to get paid an portion of the 87% of shares. I'd say that is some damn good money to add to yesterday's haul for a happy Monday morning at the Commish's office before I go out and serve some men and women divorce papers at their places of employment

For those who are not streaming-shame on you and here's how to approach this move conventionally

Astronauts-145 ML Wesneski

[atthehalf]

UNFILTERED 4/13/25


As promised here we go with the tams in jeopardy of being swept tomorrow and one more for Sunday


Royals-125 ML Ragans 2 UNITS
Buccos+165 ML Mlodzinski
Red Sox-1.5 -125 RL Crochet
Twinkies-115 ML Woods-Richardson 2 UNITS
Rox+1.5 -110 RL Freeland 2 UNITS
Jays+115 ML Berrios
Wanderers+118 Eovaldi
Astronauts-145 Wesnieski

[atthehalf]

Bleh-up and down day yesterday-however the event was wonderful!

FILTERED 4/12/25

Today I am pretty much going with the arms that grade decently that also are for the most part under 14% rostership. translated I am after some really big crumbs today with percentile share profit splits as high as 99% in some cases.

I will be able to start producing my TOP 10 streamers each day soon. I usually like to start doing that after the 4th or 5th start of the season. Then you will see me start working almost exclusively off of that list for conventional sides and totals. Right now as with any MLB season at the beginning it's hit or miss making conventional moves on sides and totals. I am making big chunks of money streaming-but that success rate hasn't translated over to the conventional side early here.

So what you see in the parenthesis next to my STREAMER moves shows the amount of rostership for the arm. If you follow that as a guide then you will start to see how big chunks of money are made streaming. Remember it doesn't matter in that world whether the team wins or loses or how many runs the arm gives up-it's purely a want for 5 frames and a 3/1 K/W ratio. So when i say that I can actually win just one streaming move and lose each and every conventional move-that happens a lot! I am trying to clear 5 dimes today so I am buying low-speaking of buying low-anyone who followed my stock tip about buying while the tariff panic was going on-you made a ton of money like i did when the rebound happened. So what you want to do is to look at those big gainers and buy some MORE and HOLD

Anyway tomorrow as per the usual i will be blasting away on teams in jeopardy of getting swept


Rot.#916 Orioles-125 FF ML Sugano (9%) 91% share split at stake
Rot.#917 Red Sox-0.5 -110 FF RL Fitts (6%) 94% share split at stake
Rot.#905 Buccos+105 FF ML Heaney (6%) 94% share split at stake 2 UNITS CONVENTIONAL
Rot.#914 Twinkies-115 FF ML Paddack (1%) 99% share split at stake
Rot.#923 Wanderers+123 Rocker (22%) 78% share split at stake
Rot.#909 Rox+0.5 -105 FF RL Dollander (11%) 89% share split at stake
Rot.#919 Royals+112 Lorenzen (6%)94% share split at stake
Rot.#901 Blunts-0.5 -110 FF Sanchez (86%) 14% share split at stake

[atthehalf]

Our runner showed up at my door this morning so basically I had to figure this out over coffee and beignets. I may or may not have hit the bong. I am not sure. Anyway I filtered them of course. At least this way no one has to keep coming back and forth to see what's what. I listed these with a 10 minute gap before actual start times for y'all. Enjoy your Friday

FILTERED 4/11/25

5:50 PM Rot.#963 Royals Bubic#9 (64%) OVER 5.5 K's +110
5:50 PM Rot.#963 Royals+115 ML FF Bubic#9 (64%)
5:50 PM Rot.#964 Guardians Jose Ramirez OVER 1.5 BASES

6:20 PM Rot.#952 Red Leggins Team Total OVER 4.5 +100
6:20 PM Rot.#952 Red Leggins-0.5 -115 FF RL Singer#10 (62%)

6:50 PM Rot.#966 Orioles-120 ML FF Sugano (9%)
6:50 PM Rot.#977 Giants/Bombers OVER 4.5 -105 FF Ray#8 (65%)/Stroman#25 (5%) DNS


7:20 PM Rot.#967Red Sox Team total OVER 4.5 -105 Martin#21 (1%) DNS

7:50 PM Rot.#969 Halos Team Total OVER 4.5 +120
7:50 PM Rot.#955 Blunts Cardinals OVER 4.5 +110 FF Nola#4 (97%)/Pallante#28 (4%)
7:50 PM Rot.#969 Halos+115 FF ML Kochanowicz#17 (2%)

9:20 PM Rot.#957 Rox/Fathers OVER 4.5 +105 FF Marquez#29 (2%)/Pivetta#6 (76%)
9:20 PM Rot.#960 Snakes (Rodriguez#16) (10%) OVER 5.5 K's +110
9:20 PM Rot.#973 Wanderers-135 ML FF deGrom#1 (96%)

9:50 PM Rot.#980 A's +0.5 -120 FF RL Sears#22 (9%)DNS
9:50 PM Rot.#979 Metropolitans/A's OVER 5.5 FF+105 Canning#27 (4%) DNS/Sears#22 (9%)DNS
9:50 PM Rot.#962 Cubs/Dodgers UNDER 4.5 -130 FF Boyd#18 (17%)/Yamamoto#2 (99%)
9:50 PM Rot.#961 Cubs+1.5 -130 RL Boyd#18 (17%) FULL GAME

[atthehalf]

Looks like Soriano is going to give me a huge return for the frames-and not the K's. But I will take it

[atthehalf]

Alright so we are having a yacht and dock party at the Commish's house tomorrow (Friday) night. There will be about somewhere in the range of 100 people there with pretty much everyone in our league and their significant others (wives, girlfriends etc who will undoubtedly be hanging out inside of his pad getting plastered). Event starts pretty much as soon as everyone gets there. Since most all of us are in the legal community one way or the other guests will be sprinkling in as early as 3-4 PM

Basically it's a chance for us all to get together, have some good food, good smoke and cocktails (his bourbon and cigar collections are unmatched) and make some moves on the games and watch them together-although primarily it's Big Inning on MLB TV on the screens.

So my moves will be sporadic throughout the evening in the time slots starting at 6:00 Pm, So check back in around 10 minutes before each slot-like 5:50 PM for the 6:00 PM games; 6:20 for the 6:30 games; 6:50 PM for the 7:00 games and so one. I can't get too pickled-gotta get my son to his baseball game in the morning.

Think Manning Cast on steroids-because some of these guys are really good

[atthehalf]

FILTERED 4/10/25

Surprisingly I found that Bailey Ober is in bad form right now and on top of that he has bad numbers vs the Royals-especially Bobby Witt Jr. and the Royals got shut out on Wednesday night. Over she blows

Let's keep the poker chips moving y'all. It's a long season and before you know it-there will come along some HUGE moves for conventional sides and totals for y'all.

I know that the Red Sox are the move when they are in jeopardy of losing 4 straight to the Jays-but Buehler is not off to a good start and Bassitt is clearly in a happier place right now.So I don't know if the SIDE is the way to go. The totals for this series have been 8.5, 8, and 8 for the first 3 games and this one opened up at 9 despite 2 UNDERS and a PUSH. You know the drill

Jonathan Cannon (Pale Hose)doesn't do much right against the Guardians with a line of 19 AB; 4K; 1BB, .368 AVG; .400 OBP; .632 SLG; 1.032 OPS and on top of that this season he has a 47.8% Hard Hit rate and 15.4% walk rate. Conversely I don't necessarily trust Gavin Williams to cover a 1.5 line with the Pale Hose needing a win in the series. He isn't so hot this year and the ONLY thing that he is doing decently is his hard hit rate is 26.9%. That's it. Look at it this way-the Pale Hose had 8 hits to the Guardians 3 and lost a nail biter on Wednesday Advantage to the Pale Hose miraculously. At least they won't have to see Clase at the end of the game who was used on Wednesday. Throw out the +1.5. Go for the gusto. I won't be taking a - ANYTHING for this opportunity.

My CRUMBS POD Streamer for today is (Halos) Jose Soriano#5 who is appearing on only 25% of rostership which is absurd given the level of his talent. The sinker and curve are working and the slider has been cooking against right hand batters-plus it's the Rays right? Sign me up for a potential split of the 75% pie. Intersecting fantasy streaming and conventional sides and totals always starts slow and then builds up like a campfire where it's for s'mores and storytelling at first for the kids and then adults getting cozy and drinking whiskey later on.

Pure joes fade for the Rox to avoid a super sweep

Rot.#907 Halos+110 ML FF Soriano#5 (HD)
Rot.#905 Pale Hose+185 ML Cannon FULL GAME
Rot.#905 Pale Hose/Guardians OVER 7.5 +100 FULL GAME 2 UNITS
Rot.#909 Twinkies/Royals OVER 4.5-110 FF Ober#2/Wacha#6 (Ober is in bad form right now)
Rot.#902 Rox+100 Feltner(DNS) FULL GAME 2 UNITS
Rot.#911 Jays/Red Sox OVER 9.5 +105 Bassitt#7/Buehler#9 FULL GAME 2 UNITS
Rot.#904 Braves-130 ML FF Schwellenbach#1

[atthehalf]

Alright-for tomorrow grab some Jose Soriano (Halos). With only 25% rostership I stand to get a nice amount of change back with a good split should he get me 5 frames and the golden 3/1 K/W ratio. I love these chunks of money my streamers bring in, and I am buying LOW right now for stocks at bargain prices-although they went up again today with trump announcing that he is putting a 90 day freeze on some tariffs. The joes have no idea that this is exactly when you should be snapping up positions instead of selling. Hold your ground on the Magnificent 7 and purchase even more United States Steel Corporation (X) which his trading now at $45.14

[atthehalf]

So far the Bombers and Dodgers did me in for the RL's which is to be expected and is collateral damage. Other than that the systematic approach for today is doing just fine

[atthehalf]

Rest in the sky Frank Robinson

[atthehalf]

The BIG BOARD has been updated with a few surprises

[atthehalf]

UNFILTERED 4/9/25

Basically I am going to make moves on all of the teams that are in jeopardy of being swept with full game moves and simultaneously attempting to not spend over -140 vigorously. So that means I will take a few hits making RL move-however it is in the spirit of a long season's returns. These are all FULL GAME moves

Wanderers+130 Mahle
Bombers-1.5 +115 RL Fried
Fish+1.5 -115 RL Meyer
Dodgers-1.5 -110 RL Knack
Twinkies-110 Ryan
Red Sox-130 Houck
Rox+1.5 -130 RL Senzatela
Rays-140 Pepiot


Other moves

Astronauts (Brown) OVER 7.5 K's +115
Pale Hose+140 ML FF Burke
Red Leggins+120 ML FF Martinez

[atthehalf]

There are enough teams in jeopardy of being swept tomorrow to not have to do any homework. Just runlines and fun times

[atthehalf]

Ah damn...another managerial decision cost me. Gillespie gets pulled with a 2-2 score through 4 frames and got pulled. Then Faucher here comes in for relief and immediately gives up two runs in the bottom of the 5th. I hate it when coaches do that