1-1, plus a couple dollars Sunday. The Twins should have won by five runs, but I guess I’ll take it. I’ll be selectively fading Haren for the near future, he really isn’t pitching like he did earlier this year. He escaped today with only mild damage, but he did not pitch well. A better offense will cash those chances and knock him around a bit. Weaver just didn’t have it, you always know that’s a possibility when taking the M’s though. Hard to tell if that’s because of the Tigers or because of him. I doubt if I play either side his next couple starts, unless the situation is ideal.
Anyway, here’s what I’ve got Monday. All are medium plays. I hate playing overs with a passion, but I think all three of these set up nicely.
Giants +125 (Lincecum/Hill)
Strange game here. Hot pitcher and cold team versus cold pitcher and hot team. I think a little of people will play the hot team (early Wagerline numbers showing 2 out of every 3 bets on the Cubs), but I don’t put a lot of stock into that considering the Cubs have been beating up on the Astros and the Giants have been getting beaten by the Dodgers. I’m going with the hot pitcher. I still think the Giants are a team capable of making a run in the second half, and Lincecum is a big reason why. He is a future star, and he has been showing that his last three starts. He’s 2-0 and in 20 IP he has given up only 12 hits and 3 ER, 1.35 ERA and a WHIP under 1. He’s also showing better control, and with opponents only hitting .220 against him this year, if he doesn’t walk people, he doesn’t give up runs.
I don’t know what the deal is with Rich Hill, but with his recent form, there’s good reason to think even the bumbling Giants offense can get to him. His last four starts were against the Nats, Brewers, White Sox, and Padres - three of the worst offenses in baseball and a Brewers offense that is slightly above average. So, he put up decent numbers right? Not even close. 0-2, 17.2 IP, 26 hits, 6 BB, and 17 ER. Quick math tells us that’s an ERA close to 9 and a WHIP close to 2. The Cubs lineup and homefield advantages are negated by the starting and relief disadvantages, and for me, this is a very even game.
Phillies/Dodgers Over 8 -102 (Moyer/Penny)
This is a pretty simple equation for me. The Dodgers are the best team in the league against LHSP (5.3 rpg) and the Phillies are the best team in the league against RHSP (5.7 rpg). Penny got rocked in his last home start and Moyer has been hit hard his last two road starts. With Dodger home overs being a goldmine this year, I have to make a play here.
Blue Jays/Yankees Over 10.5 -102 (Towers/Igawa)
Remember when I said the Dodgers lead the NL in rpg against LHSP and the Phillies lead the NL in rpg against righties? Well, in the AL, the Yankees lead in rpg against RHSP (5.7 rpg) and the Blue Jays are second in rpg against LHSP (5.7 rpg). That’s only 11.4 combined, but that’s against everyone in the league. The two starters in this one aren’t average, and they’re barely below average. Josh Towers on the road: 6.49 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, .318 BAA. Kei Igawa at home: 7.24 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, .279 BAA. Both teams have very good bullpens at the back end, but the middle and long relief for both teams is shaky, and with these starters, they’ll probably be called into action.
Orioles/Mariners Over 9.5 -108 (Burres/Ramirez)
Both these teams hit lefties much better than righties as well, and even with the depleted Orioles lineup, it’s hard to envision Horacio Ramirez having any kind of success here. He hasn’t pitched in almost two months, and when he did, he was terrible, as his 6.47 ERA and more importantly 1.88 WHIP attest. In his 8 starts, the over was 7-1 with an average of 14.25 rpg.
Burres had a promising start to the season, but has faltered, giving up 15 hits, 10 BB, and 14 ER in his last three starts, which covered only 13.1 innings. He was briefly moved to the bullpen, but will return to the lineup here as the O’s struggle to find a 5th starter. The M’s bullpen is very good, but the Orioles bullpen is worthless and could give up plenty of runs if called on to pitch more than a couple innings.
Anyway, here’s what I’ve got Monday. All are medium plays. I hate playing overs with a passion, but I think all three of these set up nicely.
Giants +125 (Lincecum/Hill)
Strange game here. Hot pitcher and cold team versus cold pitcher and hot team. I think a little of people will play the hot team (early Wagerline numbers showing 2 out of every 3 bets on the Cubs), but I don’t put a lot of stock into that considering the Cubs have been beating up on the Astros and the Giants have been getting beaten by the Dodgers. I’m going with the hot pitcher. I still think the Giants are a team capable of making a run in the second half, and Lincecum is a big reason why. He is a future star, and he has been showing that his last three starts. He’s 2-0 and in 20 IP he has given up only 12 hits and 3 ER, 1.35 ERA and a WHIP under 1. He’s also showing better control, and with opponents only hitting .220 against him this year, if he doesn’t walk people, he doesn’t give up runs.
I don’t know what the deal is with Rich Hill, but with his recent form, there’s good reason to think even the bumbling Giants offense can get to him. His last four starts were against the Nats, Brewers, White Sox, and Padres - three of the worst offenses in baseball and a Brewers offense that is slightly above average. So, he put up decent numbers right? Not even close. 0-2, 17.2 IP, 26 hits, 6 BB, and 17 ER. Quick math tells us that’s an ERA close to 9 and a WHIP close to 2. The Cubs lineup and homefield advantages are negated by the starting and relief disadvantages, and for me, this is a very even game.
Phillies/Dodgers Over 8 -102 (Moyer/Penny)
This is a pretty simple equation for me. The Dodgers are the best team in the league against LHSP (5.3 rpg) and the Phillies are the best team in the league against RHSP (5.7 rpg). Penny got rocked in his last home start and Moyer has been hit hard his last two road starts. With Dodger home overs being a goldmine this year, I have to make a play here.
Blue Jays/Yankees Over 10.5 -102 (Towers/Igawa)
Remember when I said the Dodgers lead the NL in rpg against LHSP and the Phillies lead the NL in rpg against righties? Well, in the AL, the Yankees lead in rpg against RHSP (5.7 rpg) and the Blue Jays are second in rpg against LHSP (5.7 rpg). That’s only 11.4 combined, but that’s against everyone in the league. The two starters in this one aren’t average, and they’re barely below average. Josh Towers on the road: 6.49 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, .318 BAA. Kei Igawa at home: 7.24 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, .279 BAA. Both teams have very good bullpens at the back end, but the middle and long relief for both teams is shaky, and with these starters, they’ll probably be called into action.
Orioles/Mariners Over 9.5 -108 (Burres/Ramirez)
Both these teams hit lefties much better than righties as well, and even with the depleted Orioles lineup, it’s hard to envision Horacio Ramirez having any kind of success here. He hasn’t pitched in almost two months, and when he did, he was terrible, as his 6.47 ERA and more importantly 1.88 WHIP attest. In his 8 starts, the over was 7-1 with an average of 14.25 rpg.
Burres had a promising start to the season, but has faltered, giving up 15 hits, 10 BB, and 14 ER in his last three starts, which covered only 13.1 innings. He was briefly moved to the bullpen, but will return to the lineup here as the O’s struggle to find a 5th starter. The M’s bullpen is very good, but the Orioles bullpen is worthless and could give up plenty of runs if called on to pitch more than a couple innings.