Padres under new management
San Diego goes for their third straight NL West title with a new manager at the helm. Can Bud Black lead the Pads back into the playoffs and beyond?
The Padres’ second consecutive NL West title ended with the same results as the first: An early exit from the postseason at the hands of the St. Louis Cardinals, the eventual World Series champs. Instead of regrouping a bit and going for their third NL West flag, San Diego went through some minor house cleaning in hopes of at least advancing past the NLDS this fall.
Bruce Bochy, the dean of Friar field bosses with 12 years at the helm and 951 wins, took off up the Left Coast to San Francisco to join the Big Head Bonds Circus this spring. I’ve always liked Bochy, dating back to his playing days in Houston, but for the life of me I cannot understand him wanting to leave San Diego for the Giants job.
Exit Bochy, enter Bud Black. At least the Padres won’t have to change the BB initials on the manager’s locker room towels. After toiling as a pitching coach for the Angels the past seven seasons, Harry Ralston Black is returning home sort of as he lives in the San Diego area and attended San Diego State.
While Black will be making his introduction to the team this spring and settling in, several newcomers to the roster will be doing the same. San Diego signed a pair of free agents in the winter, inking second baseman Marcus Giles and right-hander Greg Maddux. Giles already knows one of the Padres very well, his brother and the team’s right fielder, Brian. Marcus’ introduction to San Diego included a scuffle with a fan at a Chargers playoff game in January, so he already has added a bit of feistiness to a club that’s been a bit bland in recent years.
Maddux, the future Hall of Famer and one of the top pitchers in the game ever, really needs no introduction.
The Pads dealt away talented second baseman Josh Barfield, sending the son of former major leaguer Jesse to Cleveland for hard-hitting third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff and reliever Andrew Brown. San Diego will also have Terrmel Sledge full time in left instead of Dave Roberts who followed Bochy to San Fran, and Josh Bard will be the #1 catcher after Mike Piazza took a full-time pinch-hitter’s job with the A’s.
OFFENSE
It appears that the Giles Bros. will lead off at the top of the order with Marcus hitting first and big brother Brian batting second. That’s nice for novelty purposes, but whether or not it serves to jumpstart an offense that ranked 13th in the NL with 731 runs last year is another thing altogether.
Sledge is another possibility in the leadoff slot, but as it stands right now he will bat lowers in the order, sixth most likely, and be the lefty-hitting platoon in left field with switch-hitting Jose Cruz his righty-hitting partner as well as the outfield backup for center and right.
Between the Giles Boys and Sledge will be the three big sticks that you expect to find in any lineup’s 3-4-5 slots. Centerfielder Mike Cameron is set to hit third followed by first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and Kouzmanoff, the new glove down at the hot corner. Cameron had the fifth 20-20 season of his career in 2006, with a few of the previous times he’d done that being either 20-30 or 30-20 campaigns. Along with his excellent defense out in the big pasture, Cameron also batted about 15 points above his career average and exceeded his career marks in on-base percentage and slugging.
Gonzalez’s first full season in the big leagues was outstanding, though it went unnoticed by many. The San Diego native and former #1 overall pick in 2000 by Florida socked two dozen homers, drove in 82, scored 83 times and batted .304 with an .862 OPS.
Kouzmanoff is noted for his power stroke, belting 21 homers in a combined 127 Double-A and Triple-A games a year ago in 94 games with an OPS over 1.000. He murders southpaws, or at least has at the minor league level, but the Padres have some insurance in case he gets off slow against right-handers. Russell Branyan could see some action at third versus righties, with Branyan also able to play the outfield corners.
Khalil Greene rounds out the infield at shortstop, with the former 1st-round pick by San Diego in 2002 off his third consecutive 15-HR season. However, Greene’s average has not been up to par the last two seasons, and he’s still reporting some problems with the middle finger on his left hand that he injured last season.
As mentioned, Bard is the primary backstop and off a .338, 9-HR season in a little more than 250 plate appearances. Rob Bowen will be the backup, winning the job by default when Todd Greene suffered a shoulder injury early in camp.
In addition to Branyan, infield backups at the moment include Geoff Blum and Todd Walker, along with Paul McAnulty who plays first and the outfield corners. Whether or not McAnulty sticks remains to be seen. Also remaining to be seen is whether or not Walker is in the dugout come Opening Day. Walker won his arbitration this winter and appears to be more expensive than the Padres would like to spend, meaning Walker could be dealt away for other help, especially now that both Marcus Giles and Kouzmanoff are off to good spring showings.
PITCHING
Not that long ago when you mentioned the Padres to anyone, one of the first images to come to mind was offense. Certainly Tony "The Hit Man" Gwynn ranks as one of the reasons offense comes to mind. Other names include Gary Sheffield who in 1992 was the MLB Player of the year and made a run for the Triple Crown, Ken Caminiti who was the NL MVP in 1996 and Greg Vaughn who crushed 50 in 1998 when the Pads won their second NL Pennant.
The Padres played in old Jack Murphy Stadium in those days, and while The Murph wasn’t necessarily a hitter’s paradise, it was certainly friendlier to batters than Petco Park. At the same time, Petco isn’t necessarily as pitcher friendly as one is led to believe.
Case in point: In 1998, near the apex of the juiced-up home run era and playing in Jack Murphy or whatever it was called then, San Diego scored 749 runs with a team batting average of .263 and 161 clouts. Last year the Padres scored 731 runs playing in that hitter’s Death Valley known as Petco, repeating the same .263 batting average and 161 long balls. The moral to this story is don’t believe everything the talking heads tell you.
Sure, Petco is not a great hitter’s park. But at least part of the credit for it being more of a pitcher’s park has to go to the pitchers who have been chunkin’ there in recent years, especially those in SD uniforms.
The Padres once again have a strong pitching staff, paced by the starting rotation that will have Jake Peavy leading off followed by Chris Young, Greg Maddux, David Wells and Clay Hensley. Peavy fell off in 2006 compared to his excellent 2004-05 seasons. And it’s hard to tell why just looking at his numbers. He did walk 12 extra batters from 2005, and allowed five more homers. But those increases don’t explain the 1.21 increase in his ERA (2.88 to 4.09).
Further proof that Petco isn’t entirely a pitcher’s dream world come from looking at the shellackings Peavy suffered at home, especially in the first half of the season.
Young enjoyed his first season in San Diego after coming over from the Rangers the previous winter, and Hensley had a nice year, his first as a full-time starter in the bigs.
Maddux is Maddux and while he’s not the Maddux of old, he’s still a threat to win 10-15 games. Wells could hold the key to the whole season for the Padres. Not only is he the lone lefty in the starting mix, his ability to stay healthy and make 25+ starts will be crucial. If any of the starters goes down, Tim Stauffer will likely get the first call.
Trevor Hoffman, another future Hall of Famer, returns in the closer’s role and is coming off a very typical Hoffman-esque season despite turning 39 last October. Three Scott’s - - Linebrink, Cassidy and Strickland - - figure into the middle or setup relief roles, with Linebrink one of the top setup arms in the game the past few seasons.
Cla Meredith is also coming off a fine season but has been struggling this spring. Heath Bell, Doug Brocail and Kevin Cameron are battling for jobs as well. The one problem is all of the relievers named so far are right-handers. Royce Ring figures to be the lone left-hander right now, meaning one of the righties doing well could find themselves on the dirty end of the stick.
Key Player(s): Wells is one key piece to the Padres’ puzzle in 2007, but seeing Peavy get back to 2004-05 form is even more crucial. The further development of Adrian Gonzalez and the development, period, of Kevin Kouzmanoff will also fuel the offense.
Futures: The Greek and Pinnacle have both set their win totals at 83½ while Bodog pushes their mark a win higher at 84½. Pinnacle has the Pads at +279 in the NL West, +959 in the NL and +2890 to win it all. Bodog lists San Diego at 7:2 to win their division, 12:1 to take the NL flag and 30:1 to win the World Series.
Results from my sims suggest the Padres will finish a somewhat distant second to the Dodgers in the NL West, with 83 wins the most frequent total. A key injury could mean San Diego will struggle to keep their heads above .500.
San Diego goes for their third straight NL West title with a new manager at the helm. Can Bud Black lead the Pads back into the playoffs and beyond?
The Padres’ second consecutive NL West title ended with the same results as the first: An early exit from the postseason at the hands of the St. Louis Cardinals, the eventual World Series champs. Instead of regrouping a bit and going for their third NL West flag, San Diego went through some minor house cleaning in hopes of at least advancing past the NLDS this fall.
Bruce Bochy, the dean of Friar field bosses with 12 years at the helm and 951 wins, took off up the Left Coast to San Francisco to join the Big Head Bonds Circus this spring. I’ve always liked Bochy, dating back to his playing days in Houston, but for the life of me I cannot understand him wanting to leave San Diego for the Giants job.
Exit Bochy, enter Bud Black. At least the Padres won’t have to change the BB initials on the manager’s locker room towels. After toiling as a pitching coach for the Angels the past seven seasons, Harry Ralston Black is returning home sort of as he lives in the San Diego area and attended San Diego State.
While Black will be making his introduction to the team this spring and settling in, several newcomers to the roster will be doing the same. San Diego signed a pair of free agents in the winter, inking second baseman Marcus Giles and right-hander Greg Maddux. Giles already knows one of the Padres very well, his brother and the team’s right fielder, Brian. Marcus’ introduction to San Diego included a scuffle with a fan at a Chargers playoff game in January, so he already has added a bit of feistiness to a club that’s been a bit bland in recent years.
Maddux, the future Hall of Famer and one of the top pitchers in the game ever, really needs no introduction.
The Pads dealt away talented second baseman Josh Barfield, sending the son of former major leaguer Jesse to Cleveland for hard-hitting third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff and reliever Andrew Brown. San Diego will also have Terrmel Sledge full time in left instead of Dave Roberts who followed Bochy to San Fran, and Josh Bard will be the #1 catcher after Mike Piazza took a full-time pinch-hitter’s job with the A’s.
OFFENSE
It appears that the Giles Bros. will lead off at the top of the order with Marcus hitting first and big brother Brian batting second. That’s nice for novelty purposes, but whether or not it serves to jumpstart an offense that ranked 13th in the NL with 731 runs last year is another thing altogether.
Sledge is another possibility in the leadoff slot, but as it stands right now he will bat lowers in the order, sixth most likely, and be the lefty-hitting platoon in left field with switch-hitting Jose Cruz his righty-hitting partner as well as the outfield backup for center and right.
Between the Giles Boys and Sledge will be the three big sticks that you expect to find in any lineup’s 3-4-5 slots. Centerfielder Mike Cameron is set to hit third followed by first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and Kouzmanoff, the new glove down at the hot corner. Cameron had the fifth 20-20 season of his career in 2006, with a few of the previous times he’d done that being either 20-30 or 30-20 campaigns. Along with his excellent defense out in the big pasture, Cameron also batted about 15 points above his career average and exceeded his career marks in on-base percentage and slugging.
Gonzalez’s first full season in the big leagues was outstanding, though it went unnoticed by many. The San Diego native and former #1 overall pick in 2000 by Florida socked two dozen homers, drove in 82, scored 83 times and batted .304 with an .862 OPS.
Kouzmanoff is noted for his power stroke, belting 21 homers in a combined 127 Double-A and Triple-A games a year ago in 94 games with an OPS over 1.000. He murders southpaws, or at least has at the minor league level, but the Padres have some insurance in case he gets off slow against right-handers. Russell Branyan could see some action at third versus righties, with Branyan also able to play the outfield corners.
Khalil Greene rounds out the infield at shortstop, with the former 1st-round pick by San Diego in 2002 off his third consecutive 15-HR season. However, Greene’s average has not been up to par the last two seasons, and he’s still reporting some problems with the middle finger on his left hand that he injured last season.
As mentioned, Bard is the primary backstop and off a .338, 9-HR season in a little more than 250 plate appearances. Rob Bowen will be the backup, winning the job by default when Todd Greene suffered a shoulder injury early in camp.
In addition to Branyan, infield backups at the moment include Geoff Blum and Todd Walker, along with Paul McAnulty who plays first and the outfield corners. Whether or not McAnulty sticks remains to be seen. Also remaining to be seen is whether or not Walker is in the dugout come Opening Day. Walker won his arbitration this winter and appears to be more expensive than the Padres would like to spend, meaning Walker could be dealt away for other help, especially now that both Marcus Giles and Kouzmanoff are off to good spring showings.
PITCHING
Not that long ago when you mentioned the Padres to anyone, one of the first images to come to mind was offense. Certainly Tony "The Hit Man" Gwynn ranks as one of the reasons offense comes to mind. Other names include Gary Sheffield who in 1992 was the MLB Player of the year and made a run for the Triple Crown, Ken Caminiti who was the NL MVP in 1996 and Greg Vaughn who crushed 50 in 1998 when the Pads won their second NL Pennant.
The Padres played in old Jack Murphy Stadium in those days, and while The Murph wasn’t necessarily a hitter’s paradise, it was certainly friendlier to batters than Petco Park. At the same time, Petco isn’t necessarily as pitcher friendly as one is led to believe.
Case in point: In 1998, near the apex of the juiced-up home run era and playing in Jack Murphy or whatever it was called then, San Diego scored 749 runs with a team batting average of .263 and 161 clouts. Last year the Padres scored 731 runs playing in that hitter’s Death Valley known as Petco, repeating the same .263 batting average and 161 long balls. The moral to this story is don’t believe everything the talking heads tell you.
Sure, Petco is not a great hitter’s park. But at least part of the credit for it being more of a pitcher’s park has to go to the pitchers who have been chunkin’ there in recent years, especially those in SD uniforms.
The Padres once again have a strong pitching staff, paced by the starting rotation that will have Jake Peavy leading off followed by Chris Young, Greg Maddux, David Wells and Clay Hensley. Peavy fell off in 2006 compared to his excellent 2004-05 seasons. And it’s hard to tell why just looking at his numbers. He did walk 12 extra batters from 2005, and allowed five more homers. But those increases don’t explain the 1.21 increase in his ERA (2.88 to 4.09).
Further proof that Petco isn’t entirely a pitcher’s dream world come from looking at the shellackings Peavy suffered at home, especially in the first half of the season.
Young enjoyed his first season in San Diego after coming over from the Rangers the previous winter, and Hensley had a nice year, his first as a full-time starter in the bigs.
Maddux is Maddux and while he’s not the Maddux of old, he’s still a threat to win 10-15 games. Wells could hold the key to the whole season for the Padres. Not only is he the lone lefty in the starting mix, his ability to stay healthy and make 25+ starts will be crucial. If any of the starters goes down, Tim Stauffer will likely get the first call.
Trevor Hoffman, another future Hall of Famer, returns in the closer’s role and is coming off a very typical Hoffman-esque season despite turning 39 last October. Three Scott’s - - Linebrink, Cassidy and Strickland - - figure into the middle or setup relief roles, with Linebrink one of the top setup arms in the game the past few seasons.
Cla Meredith is also coming off a fine season but has been struggling this spring. Heath Bell, Doug Brocail and Kevin Cameron are battling for jobs as well. The one problem is all of the relievers named so far are right-handers. Royce Ring figures to be the lone left-hander right now, meaning one of the righties doing well could find themselves on the dirty end of the stick.
Key Player(s): Wells is one key piece to the Padres’ puzzle in 2007, but seeing Peavy get back to 2004-05 form is even more crucial. The further development of Adrian Gonzalez and the development, period, of Kevin Kouzmanoff will also fuel the offense.
Futures: The Greek and Pinnacle have both set their win totals at 83½ while Bodog pushes their mark a win higher at 84½. Pinnacle has the Pads at +279 in the NL West, +959 in the NL and +2890 to win it all. Bodog lists San Diego at 7:2 to win their division, 12:1 to take the NL flag and 30:1 to win the World Series.
Results from my sims suggest the Padres will finish a somewhat distant second to the Dodgers in the NL West, with 83 wins the most frequent total. A key injury could mean San Diego will struggle to keep their heads above .500.
