Halos hyped in the AL West
The Angels are the consensus pick to win the AL West this year behind some strong pitching. But will they walk away with the division as some suggest?
The general consensus is that the AL West is the Angels’ to lose this season. Those who share this opinion quickly point to a rotation that could be among the very deepest 1-5 in the game, one of the league’s top closers, and an outfield trio that, based on their 2006 stats, could be one of the best.
As we’ll see later, my projections also put them at the top of the AL West. So I must agree with the experts, right?
Well, no, not exactly. I don’t look at the division as LA-slash-Anaheim’s to lose as much as I look at the AL West as anyone’s to win. Well, maybe not so much Seattle, but the other three teams - - Angels, Athletics and Rangers - - are all in it from my vantage point.
Though there have been some changes to all four rosters in the division, this is still roughly the same group as last year when the A’s topped out with 93 wins thanks to an incredible second half surge. This is essentially the same division that had Texas on top on May 23 with a 23-22 record, the same date that had the Angels at their low point of the season, 10 games below .500 at 18-28 and 5½-games behind the Rangers.
So unless someone really comes out of the gate hard, I simply don’t see a runaway winner. And with some question marks right now inside their rotation, I don’t see the Halos as the team to get off to that great start.
OFFENSE
Let’s start behind the plate since that is the one spot that is up for grabs at this time. The position was supposed to belong to Jose Molina or Jeff Mathis last year, with Mathis on several radars as a potential AL Rookie of the Year candidate. But neither Molina nor Mathis wound up with the job, and Mike Napoli ended up with the most action under the mask. He did swat 16 homers and did ok defensively. But his .228 batting average, a number that really tumbled after June, doesn’t suggest he’s got the lead on the job this year. Mathis, if he doesn’t win the job outright, will likely start the year in Triple-A.
First base is also an open competition, with the favorite for the job being Casey Kotchman. The former 1st-round pick never got it going last year when he suffered a severe case of mono that sapped his strength and slowed what was supposed to be his first full season in the bigs. Robb Quinlan and Kendry Morales are trying to push their way ahead of Kotchman whose bat has been compared to Mark Grace. Kotchman also has the better glove of the group.
With the departure of Adam Kennedy at second, the job now belongs to Howie Kendrick who saw most of his action at first last season. And Orlando Cabrera, who had a much better second season with the Angels after coming over from Boston before the 2005 season, is back at shortstop.
After playing all over the map the past few years, it looks like Chone Figgins will find a fairly permanent home at third base, at least for this season. Figgins could still drift back and forth between the hot corner and the outfield. And third base will eventually go to Brandon Wood, one of the Angels’ top prospects who is being shifted away from short and will go on a crash course at third to start the year at Triple-A.
One thing the Angels have is some quality depth in the infield. Quinlan can play both infield corners, with Erick Aybar up the middle and Maicer Izturis solid at second, short or third. Keep watching to see if they don’t deal some of that depth away in a late spring deal.
The starting outfield is Vladimir Guerrero in right, Garret Anderson in left, and Gary Mathews Jr in center. That is a strong group defensively, and if Mathews comes close to repeating his offensive numbers from a year ago, it’s also a very strong trio offensively. However, despite a big-dollar deal to leave Texas as a free agent this winter, it was not a very happy offseason for Mathews with his name surfacing in a doping raid. So it remains to be seen how much of a distraction that could be for Little Sarge and the team.
Juan Rivera will DH some and help out in the outfield. Reggie Willits and Tommy Murphy are also looking to catch on in a reserve outfield role.
Shea Hillenbrand figures to get most of the DH time against right-handers, and can also provide some help at the infield corners.
PITCHING
Though the rotation is a nice quintet and potentially deep, the depth will be tested at the outset with a couple of arms appearing to need some extra time before joining the rotation full-time. John Lackey should get the ball on Opening Day, with Kelvim Escobar and Ervin Santana following him. That trio of right-handers combined for 40 wins in their 93 starts a year ago, and a 3.81 ERA in more than 600 innings.
Part of the reason I’m holding back on the Angels and not just handing them the AL West title just yet is the health of Bartolo Colon and Jered Weaver, one of the top rookie hurlers in either league from 2006. Coming off his Cy Young season of 2005, Colon’s 2006 was cut short due to a shoulder injury. He made just 10 starts, somehow fashioning a whitewashing in those starts, but clearly never had it and is not expected back in the rotation until late April.
Weaver’s story started out strange when he took his big brother Jeff’s roster and rotation spot in late May. And his stuff was obviously strange to the hitters that faced him as the younger Weaver won his first seven starts, was 9-0 before he lost a game, and finished 11-2 in 19 games with a 2.56 ERA and 105 strikeouts in 123 innings. His emergence on the staff directly coincided with Los Angeles turning their poor start around, and the former Cal State - Long Beach star wound up fifth in the AL ROY voting.
But his spring has gotten off to a much slower start and the word is he probably won’t be ready to pitch until the second week of the season as he battles back from a biceps injury.
Left-handers Dustin Moseley and Joe Saunders and righty Hector Carrasco are the top candidates to fill in for any holes in the rotation while Colon and Weaver try to get right.
Frankie Rodriguez, who missed a little time early this spring with a hamstring pull, is one of the best in the game at closing out games. K-Rod has put 92 saves on the board since assuming the job full-time at the start of the 2005 season, and his ERA since 2004 is just a scratch over two. And those aren’t even his most impressive stats as he’s compiled 420 strikeouts in 316 major league innings.
Scot Shields and Justin Speier figure to be the primary setup arms for Rodriguez. Shields is one of the most underrated relievers in the game the past few years, and Speier came aboard this past winter after two fairly successful seasons as a setup reliever in Toronto.
Middle relief chores will go to left-hander Darren Oliver and Carrasco when he’s not in the rotation filling in for an injured starter. Another name to watch for out in the pen is Chris Resop, a former outfielder who the Halos picked up from the Marlins in exchange for Kevin Gregg.
Key Player(s): Obviously, the health of Colon and Weaver is of importance right now since this team is built around its pitching. With them, the rotation figure to be one of the best in the AL. Without the pair, it’s still a decent group but nothing to pin your division hopes on.
Futures: The win totals range from 90 at Bodog to 90½ at both Pinnacle and The Greek. Bodog lists the Angels at 1:2 in the AL West with Pinnacle setting their price at -119. Both Pinnacle and Bodog have them at 6:1 to win the AL flag, and 10:1 is roughly the mark at the books for the Angels to go all the way and win their second World Series.
My simulations ranged from 82 wins to 93 wins. But the 93 was the only time (in 10 sims) the Angels reached the 90-win mark. My projection right now is no better than where they sat last year, 89 wins.
The Angels are the consensus pick to win the AL West this year behind some strong pitching. But will they walk away with the division as some suggest?
The general consensus is that the AL West is the Angels’ to lose this season. Those who share this opinion quickly point to a rotation that could be among the very deepest 1-5 in the game, one of the league’s top closers, and an outfield trio that, based on their 2006 stats, could be one of the best.
As we’ll see later, my projections also put them at the top of the AL West. So I must agree with the experts, right?
Well, no, not exactly. I don’t look at the division as LA-slash-Anaheim’s to lose as much as I look at the AL West as anyone’s to win. Well, maybe not so much Seattle, but the other three teams - - Angels, Athletics and Rangers - - are all in it from my vantage point.
Though there have been some changes to all four rosters in the division, this is still roughly the same group as last year when the A’s topped out with 93 wins thanks to an incredible second half surge. This is essentially the same division that had Texas on top on May 23 with a 23-22 record, the same date that had the Angels at their low point of the season, 10 games below .500 at 18-28 and 5½-games behind the Rangers.
So unless someone really comes out of the gate hard, I simply don’t see a runaway winner. And with some question marks right now inside their rotation, I don’t see the Halos as the team to get off to that great start.
OFFENSE
Let’s start behind the plate since that is the one spot that is up for grabs at this time. The position was supposed to belong to Jose Molina or Jeff Mathis last year, with Mathis on several radars as a potential AL Rookie of the Year candidate. But neither Molina nor Mathis wound up with the job, and Mike Napoli ended up with the most action under the mask. He did swat 16 homers and did ok defensively. But his .228 batting average, a number that really tumbled after June, doesn’t suggest he’s got the lead on the job this year. Mathis, if he doesn’t win the job outright, will likely start the year in Triple-A.
First base is also an open competition, with the favorite for the job being Casey Kotchman. The former 1st-round pick never got it going last year when he suffered a severe case of mono that sapped his strength and slowed what was supposed to be his first full season in the bigs. Robb Quinlan and Kendry Morales are trying to push their way ahead of Kotchman whose bat has been compared to Mark Grace. Kotchman also has the better glove of the group.
With the departure of Adam Kennedy at second, the job now belongs to Howie Kendrick who saw most of his action at first last season. And Orlando Cabrera, who had a much better second season with the Angels after coming over from Boston before the 2005 season, is back at shortstop.
After playing all over the map the past few years, it looks like Chone Figgins will find a fairly permanent home at third base, at least for this season. Figgins could still drift back and forth between the hot corner and the outfield. And third base will eventually go to Brandon Wood, one of the Angels’ top prospects who is being shifted away from short and will go on a crash course at third to start the year at Triple-A.
One thing the Angels have is some quality depth in the infield. Quinlan can play both infield corners, with Erick Aybar up the middle and Maicer Izturis solid at second, short or third. Keep watching to see if they don’t deal some of that depth away in a late spring deal.
The starting outfield is Vladimir Guerrero in right, Garret Anderson in left, and Gary Mathews Jr in center. That is a strong group defensively, and if Mathews comes close to repeating his offensive numbers from a year ago, it’s also a very strong trio offensively. However, despite a big-dollar deal to leave Texas as a free agent this winter, it was not a very happy offseason for Mathews with his name surfacing in a doping raid. So it remains to be seen how much of a distraction that could be for Little Sarge and the team.
Juan Rivera will DH some and help out in the outfield. Reggie Willits and Tommy Murphy are also looking to catch on in a reserve outfield role.
Shea Hillenbrand figures to get most of the DH time against right-handers, and can also provide some help at the infield corners.
PITCHING
Though the rotation is a nice quintet and potentially deep, the depth will be tested at the outset with a couple of arms appearing to need some extra time before joining the rotation full-time. John Lackey should get the ball on Opening Day, with Kelvim Escobar and Ervin Santana following him. That trio of right-handers combined for 40 wins in their 93 starts a year ago, and a 3.81 ERA in more than 600 innings.
Part of the reason I’m holding back on the Angels and not just handing them the AL West title just yet is the health of Bartolo Colon and Jered Weaver, one of the top rookie hurlers in either league from 2006. Coming off his Cy Young season of 2005, Colon’s 2006 was cut short due to a shoulder injury. He made just 10 starts, somehow fashioning a whitewashing in those starts, but clearly never had it and is not expected back in the rotation until late April.
Weaver’s story started out strange when he took his big brother Jeff’s roster and rotation spot in late May. And his stuff was obviously strange to the hitters that faced him as the younger Weaver won his first seven starts, was 9-0 before he lost a game, and finished 11-2 in 19 games with a 2.56 ERA and 105 strikeouts in 123 innings. His emergence on the staff directly coincided with Los Angeles turning their poor start around, and the former Cal State - Long Beach star wound up fifth in the AL ROY voting.
But his spring has gotten off to a much slower start and the word is he probably won’t be ready to pitch until the second week of the season as he battles back from a biceps injury.
Left-handers Dustin Moseley and Joe Saunders and righty Hector Carrasco are the top candidates to fill in for any holes in the rotation while Colon and Weaver try to get right.
Frankie Rodriguez, who missed a little time early this spring with a hamstring pull, is one of the best in the game at closing out games. K-Rod has put 92 saves on the board since assuming the job full-time at the start of the 2005 season, and his ERA since 2004 is just a scratch over two. And those aren’t even his most impressive stats as he’s compiled 420 strikeouts in 316 major league innings.
Scot Shields and Justin Speier figure to be the primary setup arms for Rodriguez. Shields is one of the most underrated relievers in the game the past few years, and Speier came aboard this past winter after two fairly successful seasons as a setup reliever in Toronto.
Middle relief chores will go to left-hander Darren Oliver and Carrasco when he’s not in the rotation filling in for an injured starter. Another name to watch for out in the pen is Chris Resop, a former outfielder who the Halos picked up from the Marlins in exchange for Kevin Gregg.
Key Player(s): Obviously, the health of Colon and Weaver is of importance right now since this team is built around its pitching. With them, the rotation figure to be one of the best in the AL. Without the pair, it’s still a decent group but nothing to pin your division hopes on.
Futures: The win totals range from 90 at Bodog to 90½ at both Pinnacle and The Greek. Bodog lists the Angels at 1:2 in the AL West with Pinnacle setting their price at -119. Both Pinnacle and Bodog have them at 6:1 to win the AL flag, and 10:1 is roughly the mark at the books for the Angels to go all the way and win their second World Series.
My simulations ranged from 82 wins to 93 wins. But the 93 was the only time (in 10 sims) the Angels reached the 90-win mark. My projection right now is no better than where they sat last year, 89 wins.
