Braves hope to start new run
With their string of 14 consecutive division titles coming to an end in 2006, Atlanta hopes a retooled bullpen will help the club back to the postseason this year.
The streak is over.
Atlanta’s string of 14 consecutive division titles ended last year when they fell to a 79-83 record and third in the AL East. It was a remarkable run, to say the least. In today’s baseball economy a team has to be both lucky and damn good just to repeat a single division title, much less repeat 13 times over. A lot of credit for what the Braves accomplished since the string began in 1991 certainly goes to the players themselves, especially their stout pitching staffs. But much of the credit also has to go to the front office and coaches, GM John Schuerholz and Bobby Cox at the top of that list.
Last year’s decline and ‘failure’ was not totally unexpected. If anything, the fact the streak didn’t stop a year earlier was a bigger surprise than it coming to an end in 2006.
Injuries limited veteran Chipper Jones to 110 games in 2006, Tim Hudson inexplicably saw his ERA balloon to a career-high 4.86, and just like 2005, the club entered last season with a lot of questions in the bullpen. But every club battles those troubles year in and year out. They just seemed magnified for the Braves last year because they had won those battles before and go on to play October baseball.
The atmosphere might be more relaxed around the club now that the string of division crowns is done. But you can’t tell it from the expectations the front office, coaches and players have entering the season.
Having Chipper healthy and getting Hudson back to his former self will help, of course. And if those were the only problems the club had entering the season, the Braves would be a relative easy pick to start a new streak.
But the club actually has more questions this year than they have in a long, long while. So getting back to the top and beginning a new string of division titles or even playoff appearances will be tough.
OFFENSE
Only five regular position players from a year ago are etched in stone at this time. The Jones Boys, Chipper and Andruw, will be at third and center respectively. Edgar Renteria is the shortstop. Jeff Francoeur is in right. And Brian McCann is at catcher. That quintet accounted for 134 (60%) of the team’s 222 long balls last year, a total that led the National League. They combined for 481 RBI, 59% of the club total, and 438 of the runs Atlanta scored (52%), a tally that ranked second in the NL.
So having the five back is a good thing, a very good thing. Before moving to the three open positions and overall backups, a couple of words about McCann and Francoeur.
The two were born just a few weeks and a few miles apart, McCann in Athens on February 20, 1984 and Francoeur in Atlanta on January 8, 1984. The two are the cornerstones around which the future of this club, at least the non-pitching part of the club, will be built. I don’t expect McCann to hit .333 or higher ever again, just as I expect Francoeur to not have an on-base percentage of .293 again. You can probably shave 15-20 points, or more off McCann’s average for this year and add that to Francoeur’s OBA.
The right side of the infield will be brand new after former second baseman Marcus Giles joined his brother Brian in San Diego via free agency and first sacker Adam LaRoche was dealt to Pittsburgh for bullpen help. It’s likely to be a platoon role at first, at least to start the season, between Scott Thorman and Craig Wilson. In a perfect world, Thorman would grab the job full-time. Wilson will likely see some time in the outfield corners as well.
Second is Kelly Johnson’s job to lose this spring, with Pete Orr and Martin Prado looking to beat Johnson out. Orr could stick as an infield backup, along with Willie Aybar and Chris Woodward.
Left field, like first, might be the same platoon as last year between Matt Diaz and Ryan Langerhans. Diaz hit almost .330 in about 300 at bats last year, but the Braves would probably like to get Langerhans’ left-handed stick in there as much as possible. As mentioned, Wilson will get some outfield time in with Willie Harris another possibility for center field if he can make the club out of spring.
PITCHING
Long the backbone and strength of the club, Braves hurlers had an uncharacteristically poor season in 2006. The staff ranked 10th in the NL with a 4.60 ERA, 11th in home runs allowed and 11th in walks issued. Braves starters were even worse with a 4.71 ERA compared to 4.39 for the relievers. Despite that, the club went out and spent more money beefing up the bullpen than adding to the rotation.
Why? Simple, Tim Hudson and Mike Hampton.
John Smoltz, who at 39 recorded a 16-9 record and 3.49 ERA in over 230 innings, is back and will come out of the first gate in the rotation. How much Hudson and Hampton can do behind him will likely make or break the Braves this year as far as their postseason chances.
Hudson got out of the gate very slow last year with two horrific starts to begin his season and three horrible outings in his first seven tries. But then he settled down a bit and actually had his ERA at 3.79 by mid-June. He did have some other nice starts, but was very inconsistent the entire season.
Hampton is about 18 months from Tommy John surgery and Atlanta is taking it very slow with the lefty. They hope he can go five innings or about 70 pitches by early April.
The final two spots in the rotation should go to righty Kyle Davies and lefty Chuck James. Another couple of Georgia natives like McCann and Francoeur, James and Davies should be ok at the back end as long as they don’t have to cover for more missteps at the front end of the rotation.
The bullpen has been wholly reshaped since this time last season. Bob Wickman was brought in to close last July, and he’ll have strong arms in southpaw Mike Gonzalez, picked up from the Pirates in the LaRoche deal, and right-hander Rafael Soriano, acquired from Seattle for Horacio Ramirez.
Macay McBride, who appeared in 94 games out of the Atlanta bullpen last year, gives manager Bobby Cox another left-hander to turn to. Other relievers Cox may use this season include Joey Devine, Tanyon Sturtze, Lance Cormier and Blaine Boyer, with Sturtze and Boyer coming off arm surgeries.
Key Player(s): Too easy not to paste Hudson’s and Hampton’s name in this box. But I’m also going to throw Cox in as well after one of his statements this offseason in which he said, "(Jorge) Sosa was responsible for about half of it," referring to the pitching woes, particularly the starting pitching trouble. Maybe he’s right, but it’s the manager’s job to make sure that no single player is responsible for half of your pitching trouble. Cox needs to learn that Hall of Fame caliber managers neither throw departed players under the bus nor let a single player ruin an entire season.
Futures: Win totals are tight, 82½ at The Greek and 83 at both Pinnacle and Bodog. In their division, the Braves are +525 to win the NL East at The Greek, a flat 6:1 at Bodog and +607 at Pinnacle. Bodog has Atlanta 15:1 to win the NL Pennant, Pinnacle has them +1558 and The Greek has the Braves at +1815. And to win it all, Bodog is listing Atlanta at 30:1 while The Greek has them +3050 and Pinnacle lists the Braves at +3545.
My projections suggest a third place finish for Atlanta, what with the unknowns surrounding Hampton and second base, as well as how Davies and James do in their first full seasons now that the league has seen them. With their bullpen one of the best on paper and basically turning games into six innings long, if Hampton and Hudson are their old selves, the Braves could win as many as 90 games. But I’m predicting 83.
With their string of 14 consecutive division titles coming to an end in 2006, Atlanta hopes a retooled bullpen will help the club back to the postseason this year.
The streak is over.
Atlanta’s string of 14 consecutive division titles ended last year when they fell to a 79-83 record and third in the AL East. It was a remarkable run, to say the least. In today’s baseball economy a team has to be both lucky and damn good just to repeat a single division title, much less repeat 13 times over. A lot of credit for what the Braves accomplished since the string began in 1991 certainly goes to the players themselves, especially their stout pitching staffs. But much of the credit also has to go to the front office and coaches, GM John Schuerholz and Bobby Cox at the top of that list.
Last year’s decline and ‘failure’ was not totally unexpected. If anything, the fact the streak didn’t stop a year earlier was a bigger surprise than it coming to an end in 2006.
Injuries limited veteran Chipper Jones to 110 games in 2006, Tim Hudson inexplicably saw his ERA balloon to a career-high 4.86, and just like 2005, the club entered last season with a lot of questions in the bullpen. But every club battles those troubles year in and year out. They just seemed magnified for the Braves last year because they had won those battles before and go on to play October baseball.
The atmosphere might be more relaxed around the club now that the string of division crowns is done. But you can’t tell it from the expectations the front office, coaches and players have entering the season.
Having Chipper healthy and getting Hudson back to his former self will help, of course. And if those were the only problems the club had entering the season, the Braves would be a relative easy pick to start a new streak.
But the club actually has more questions this year than they have in a long, long while. So getting back to the top and beginning a new string of division titles or even playoff appearances will be tough.
OFFENSE
Only five regular position players from a year ago are etched in stone at this time. The Jones Boys, Chipper and Andruw, will be at third and center respectively. Edgar Renteria is the shortstop. Jeff Francoeur is in right. And Brian McCann is at catcher. That quintet accounted for 134 (60%) of the team’s 222 long balls last year, a total that led the National League. They combined for 481 RBI, 59% of the club total, and 438 of the runs Atlanta scored (52%), a tally that ranked second in the NL.
So having the five back is a good thing, a very good thing. Before moving to the three open positions and overall backups, a couple of words about McCann and Francoeur.
The two were born just a few weeks and a few miles apart, McCann in Athens on February 20, 1984 and Francoeur in Atlanta on January 8, 1984. The two are the cornerstones around which the future of this club, at least the non-pitching part of the club, will be built. I don’t expect McCann to hit .333 or higher ever again, just as I expect Francoeur to not have an on-base percentage of .293 again. You can probably shave 15-20 points, or more off McCann’s average for this year and add that to Francoeur’s OBA.
The right side of the infield will be brand new after former second baseman Marcus Giles joined his brother Brian in San Diego via free agency and first sacker Adam LaRoche was dealt to Pittsburgh for bullpen help. It’s likely to be a platoon role at first, at least to start the season, between Scott Thorman and Craig Wilson. In a perfect world, Thorman would grab the job full-time. Wilson will likely see some time in the outfield corners as well.
Second is Kelly Johnson’s job to lose this spring, with Pete Orr and Martin Prado looking to beat Johnson out. Orr could stick as an infield backup, along with Willie Aybar and Chris Woodward.
Left field, like first, might be the same platoon as last year between Matt Diaz and Ryan Langerhans. Diaz hit almost .330 in about 300 at bats last year, but the Braves would probably like to get Langerhans’ left-handed stick in there as much as possible. As mentioned, Wilson will get some outfield time in with Willie Harris another possibility for center field if he can make the club out of spring.
PITCHING
Long the backbone and strength of the club, Braves hurlers had an uncharacteristically poor season in 2006. The staff ranked 10th in the NL with a 4.60 ERA, 11th in home runs allowed and 11th in walks issued. Braves starters were even worse with a 4.71 ERA compared to 4.39 for the relievers. Despite that, the club went out and spent more money beefing up the bullpen than adding to the rotation.
Why? Simple, Tim Hudson and Mike Hampton.
John Smoltz, who at 39 recorded a 16-9 record and 3.49 ERA in over 230 innings, is back and will come out of the first gate in the rotation. How much Hudson and Hampton can do behind him will likely make or break the Braves this year as far as their postseason chances.
Hudson got out of the gate very slow last year with two horrific starts to begin his season and three horrible outings in his first seven tries. But then he settled down a bit and actually had his ERA at 3.79 by mid-June. He did have some other nice starts, but was very inconsistent the entire season.
Hampton is about 18 months from Tommy John surgery and Atlanta is taking it very slow with the lefty. They hope he can go five innings or about 70 pitches by early April.
The final two spots in the rotation should go to righty Kyle Davies and lefty Chuck James. Another couple of Georgia natives like McCann and Francoeur, James and Davies should be ok at the back end as long as they don’t have to cover for more missteps at the front end of the rotation.
The bullpen has been wholly reshaped since this time last season. Bob Wickman was brought in to close last July, and he’ll have strong arms in southpaw Mike Gonzalez, picked up from the Pirates in the LaRoche deal, and right-hander Rafael Soriano, acquired from Seattle for Horacio Ramirez.
Macay McBride, who appeared in 94 games out of the Atlanta bullpen last year, gives manager Bobby Cox another left-hander to turn to. Other relievers Cox may use this season include Joey Devine, Tanyon Sturtze, Lance Cormier and Blaine Boyer, with Sturtze and Boyer coming off arm surgeries.
Key Player(s): Too easy not to paste Hudson’s and Hampton’s name in this box. But I’m also going to throw Cox in as well after one of his statements this offseason in which he said, "(Jorge) Sosa was responsible for about half of it," referring to the pitching woes, particularly the starting pitching trouble. Maybe he’s right, but it’s the manager’s job to make sure that no single player is responsible for half of your pitching trouble. Cox needs to learn that Hall of Fame caliber managers neither throw departed players under the bus nor let a single player ruin an entire season.
Futures: Win totals are tight, 82½ at The Greek and 83 at both Pinnacle and Bodog. In their division, the Braves are +525 to win the NL East at The Greek, a flat 6:1 at Bodog and +607 at Pinnacle. Bodog has Atlanta 15:1 to win the NL Pennant, Pinnacle has them +1558 and The Greek has the Braves at +1815. And to win it all, Bodog is listing Atlanta at 30:1 while The Greek has them +3050 and Pinnacle lists the Braves at +3545.
My projections suggest a third place finish for Atlanta, what with the unknowns surrounding Hampton and second base, as well as how Davies and James do in their first full seasons now that the league has seen them. With their bullpen one of the best on paper and basically turning games into six innings long, if Hampton and Hudson are their old selves, the Braves could win as many as 90 games. But I’m predicting 83.
