Offense is no problem for Tribe
Expected to contend in 2006, the Indians stumbled to fourth in the AL Central. Can their pitching help right the reservation this year?
Very early in the 2006 season, the predictions looked spot on. Cleveland was off to a 6-1 start on the season and looking every bit like the team that was supposed to challenge the Chicago White Sox for the AL Central. After all, this was a team that improved by 12 wins from 2003-2004 and another 13 wins from 2004-2005.
But it was not to be. By the end of April the team was just a game over .500, and they were an even .500 at the end of May before suffering through a 9-17 June followed by a 10-16 month of July. At season’s end, the Indians were 15 worse in the win column than they were in 2005.
One of the topics we discussed in last year’s preview of the Tribe was that their big jump in 2005 might have been a bit premature. I even predicted them to slide back in the win column, though certainly not by 15 games.
So, wha’ happened? On offense, the Indians actually improved their numbers in 2006, scoring 80 more runs (870 in 2006, 790 in 2005), hitting nine points better in average (.280 from .271) and increasing their OPS by nearly 20 points (.806 in ’06 from .787 in ’05). They hit a few less long balls, nine less to be exact from the 207 they popped in 2005, and they stole a few less bases, but neither of those drops was significant compared to their gains in runs, batting average and OPS.
No, it wasn’t the offense, it was the pitching that cost them in 2006, specifically in the late innings when those fellows called relievers were summoned to the hump in the middle of the infield. Cleveland’s ERA rose 0.80 in 2006 after leading the AL with a 3.61 mark in 2005. Some of that was certainly the doing of the starters and the loss of Kevin Millwood who led the AL in 2005 with a 2.86 figure.
But most of the trouble can be found in the bullpen. The top five relievers in 2005 fashioned a 2.88 ERA; the top five in 2006 coughed up a 4.66 number.
OFFENSE
Manager Eric Wedge has to like the offense he’s going to have at his disposal this season. What manager wouldn’t?
The Yankees were the only team in baseball to score more runs than Cleveland last season, and this year’s Tribe could be even better. Positions that are written in stone include Travis Hafner at DH, Grady Sizemore in center, Victor Martinez behind the plate, Jhonny Peralta at short and Josh Barfield at second.
The move to acquire Barfield from the Padres looks like a very good deal for the Indians though they did part with young power threat Kevin Kouzmanoff. Barfield is an upgrade offensively and defensively over Ronnie Belliard, who was dealt to the Cardinals last summer.
Left field could be a platoon job for lefty-hitting David Dellucci and righty-swinging Jason Michaels. In fact, Wedge has hinted he will go with Michaels in left, Casey Blake in right and Ryan Garko at first against southpaws, with Dellucci in left, Blake at first and Trot Nixon in right against right-handers. Nixon was signed in the winter and his health is a question after totaling less than 900 at bats the past three seasons due to assorted medical reasons.
Garko is a stud in waiting, but entering the season 26-years-old, it remains unclear how much longer the Indians will wait on him, and how much longer he will wait on the Indians.
The one position that is a bit iffy right now is third base. Andy Marte is being penciled in at the hot corner now, and with the club dealing Kouzmanoff away, third base is Marte’s for the taking. Dealt from Atlanta to Boston in December 2005, and then dealt to the Indians in the swap that sent Coco Crisp to the Red Sox about six weeks later, Marte is still just 23 years old and very raw. If he can’t cut it, there’s a chance that Blake will move back to third, opening the door for Garko to man first.
Infield backup jobs should go to Hector Luna and Luis Rivas.
PITCHING
Coming into Spring Training, Wedge shouldn’t have to make a lot of decisions regarding his rotation unless the injury bug bites. In fact, there really isn’t a battle brewing for any of the spots, and that’s rare for this time of year when teams generally have at least one of not two slots in the order undecided.
Southpaw CC Sabathia will start Opening Day, and should be good to go after some minor knee surgery in the offseason. He managed to complete six of his 28 starts in 2006 with a sparking 3.22 ERA.
Right-hander Jake Westbrook, off his second straight 15-win campaign should follow Sabathia with left-hander Cliff Lee third in the rotation. Lee fell off a tad in 2006, but his defense also didn’t help him out much.
The defense also let Paul Byrd down to the tune of the opposition scoring 23 unearned runs against the right-hander in his 31 starts. Byrd will pitch fourth in the order this year, with young southpaw Jeremy Sowers bringing up the rear, in rotation order only. The former star out of Vanderbilt had a fine showing in his first 14 MLB starts a year ago, completing his season with a 3.57 ERA and 7-4 record after blistering the International League for a 9-1 record and 1.39 ERA in 15 starts there.
Fausto Carmona, he of the disaster trial run as the team’s closer last summer, will begin the season as a starter in the minors and likely be the first arm called up if and when the need arises.
While the bullpen might wind up as bad as it was last year, it will be a slightly revamped group that does the damage this year. Joe Borowski, after saving 36 for the Marlins in 2006, was signed in the winter to assume closing duties. Veteran Roberto Hernandez was brought in to be one of the primary setup arms and provide a little insurance at closer should Borowski stumble.
Two other spots that are all but guaranteed belong to right-hander Rafael Betancourt and lefty Aaron Fultz. The best bets for the rest of the pen should be Fernando Cabrera, Jason Davis and Matt Miller, with Cabrera and Davis both out of options.
Key Player(s): It’s a tough division now with the emergence of the Tigers last year, the White Sox still looking strong and the Twins very much a threat with the AL Cy Young winner, AL MVP and AL batting champ. So everyone will have to pull it together if the Indians are going to join the party. To begin the season, Borowski’s role as closer is probably the most critical since there’s nothing like a solid 9th-inning arm to help relax a club in the late innings and boost the confidence of a starting staff.
Futures: Pinnacle set their win bar at 86 with the Indians +335 to win the division. The Greek likes Cleveland a little bit more with an 86½ line for the over-under win total and the Indians at +865 to win the AL Pennant. Bodog has the Tribe at 20:1 to win the World Series, 10:1 to take home the AL Flag and 3:1 to win the AL Central.
My projections come out on the under side of the win totals I’ve seen, with 84 wins the average number from the simulations.
Expected to contend in 2006, the Indians stumbled to fourth in the AL Central. Can their pitching help right the reservation this year?
Very early in the 2006 season, the predictions looked spot on. Cleveland was off to a 6-1 start on the season and looking every bit like the team that was supposed to challenge the Chicago White Sox for the AL Central. After all, this was a team that improved by 12 wins from 2003-2004 and another 13 wins from 2004-2005.
But it was not to be. By the end of April the team was just a game over .500, and they were an even .500 at the end of May before suffering through a 9-17 June followed by a 10-16 month of July. At season’s end, the Indians were 15 worse in the win column than they were in 2005.
One of the topics we discussed in last year’s preview of the Tribe was that their big jump in 2005 might have been a bit premature. I even predicted them to slide back in the win column, though certainly not by 15 games.
So, wha’ happened? On offense, the Indians actually improved their numbers in 2006, scoring 80 more runs (870 in 2006, 790 in 2005), hitting nine points better in average (.280 from .271) and increasing their OPS by nearly 20 points (.806 in ’06 from .787 in ’05). They hit a few less long balls, nine less to be exact from the 207 they popped in 2005, and they stole a few less bases, but neither of those drops was significant compared to their gains in runs, batting average and OPS.
No, it wasn’t the offense, it was the pitching that cost them in 2006, specifically in the late innings when those fellows called relievers were summoned to the hump in the middle of the infield. Cleveland’s ERA rose 0.80 in 2006 after leading the AL with a 3.61 mark in 2005. Some of that was certainly the doing of the starters and the loss of Kevin Millwood who led the AL in 2005 with a 2.86 figure.
But most of the trouble can be found in the bullpen. The top five relievers in 2005 fashioned a 2.88 ERA; the top five in 2006 coughed up a 4.66 number.
OFFENSE
Manager Eric Wedge has to like the offense he’s going to have at his disposal this season. What manager wouldn’t?
The Yankees were the only team in baseball to score more runs than Cleveland last season, and this year’s Tribe could be even better. Positions that are written in stone include Travis Hafner at DH, Grady Sizemore in center, Victor Martinez behind the plate, Jhonny Peralta at short and Josh Barfield at second.
The move to acquire Barfield from the Padres looks like a very good deal for the Indians though they did part with young power threat Kevin Kouzmanoff. Barfield is an upgrade offensively and defensively over Ronnie Belliard, who was dealt to the Cardinals last summer.
Left field could be a platoon job for lefty-hitting David Dellucci and righty-swinging Jason Michaels. In fact, Wedge has hinted he will go with Michaels in left, Casey Blake in right and Ryan Garko at first against southpaws, with Dellucci in left, Blake at first and Trot Nixon in right against right-handers. Nixon was signed in the winter and his health is a question after totaling less than 900 at bats the past three seasons due to assorted medical reasons.
Garko is a stud in waiting, but entering the season 26-years-old, it remains unclear how much longer the Indians will wait on him, and how much longer he will wait on the Indians.
The one position that is a bit iffy right now is third base. Andy Marte is being penciled in at the hot corner now, and with the club dealing Kouzmanoff away, third base is Marte’s for the taking. Dealt from Atlanta to Boston in December 2005, and then dealt to the Indians in the swap that sent Coco Crisp to the Red Sox about six weeks later, Marte is still just 23 years old and very raw. If he can’t cut it, there’s a chance that Blake will move back to third, opening the door for Garko to man first.
Infield backup jobs should go to Hector Luna and Luis Rivas.
PITCHING
Coming into Spring Training, Wedge shouldn’t have to make a lot of decisions regarding his rotation unless the injury bug bites. In fact, there really isn’t a battle brewing for any of the spots, and that’s rare for this time of year when teams generally have at least one of not two slots in the order undecided.
Southpaw CC Sabathia will start Opening Day, and should be good to go after some minor knee surgery in the offseason. He managed to complete six of his 28 starts in 2006 with a sparking 3.22 ERA.
Right-hander Jake Westbrook, off his second straight 15-win campaign should follow Sabathia with left-hander Cliff Lee third in the rotation. Lee fell off a tad in 2006, but his defense also didn’t help him out much.
The defense also let Paul Byrd down to the tune of the opposition scoring 23 unearned runs against the right-hander in his 31 starts. Byrd will pitch fourth in the order this year, with young southpaw Jeremy Sowers bringing up the rear, in rotation order only. The former star out of Vanderbilt had a fine showing in his first 14 MLB starts a year ago, completing his season with a 3.57 ERA and 7-4 record after blistering the International League for a 9-1 record and 1.39 ERA in 15 starts there.
Fausto Carmona, he of the disaster trial run as the team’s closer last summer, will begin the season as a starter in the minors and likely be the first arm called up if and when the need arises.
While the bullpen might wind up as bad as it was last year, it will be a slightly revamped group that does the damage this year. Joe Borowski, after saving 36 for the Marlins in 2006, was signed in the winter to assume closing duties. Veteran Roberto Hernandez was brought in to be one of the primary setup arms and provide a little insurance at closer should Borowski stumble.
Two other spots that are all but guaranteed belong to right-hander Rafael Betancourt and lefty Aaron Fultz. The best bets for the rest of the pen should be Fernando Cabrera, Jason Davis and Matt Miller, with Cabrera and Davis both out of options.
Key Player(s): It’s a tough division now with the emergence of the Tigers last year, the White Sox still looking strong and the Twins very much a threat with the AL Cy Young winner, AL MVP and AL batting champ. So everyone will have to pull it together if the Indians are going to join the party. To begin the season, Borowski’s role as closer is probably the most critical since there’s nothing like a solid 9th-inning arm to help relax a club in the late innings and boost the confidence of a starting staff.
Futures: Pinnacle set their win bar at 86 with the Indians +335 to win the division. The Greek likes Cleveland a little bit more with an 86½ line for the over-under win total and the Indians at +865 to win the AL Pennant. Bodog has the Tribe at 20:1 to win the World Series, 10:1 to take home the AL Flag and 3:1 to win the AL Central.
My projections come out on the under side of the win totals I’ve seen, with 84 wins the average number from the simulations.