Two Barry's not enough for SF in '07
A couple of Barry's, Bonds and Zito, are the stars, but it will take a lot of help from the rest of the lineup if the Giants hope to make the playoffs.
So I hear this Barry Bonds fellow is shooting for some record this year. The question isn’t so much if Bonds will hit the 22 homers he needs to pass Hank Aaron as the all-time leader. No, the real question is will anyone really care, aside from the media that is always looking for more controversy to sell?
San Francisco made some pretty major changes during the offseason, subtracting the likes of Moises Alou, Jason Schmidt and Steve Finley and adding Dave Roberts, Rich Aurilia and Barry Zito. One might surmise that lopping Alou and Finley from the roster means the Giants are a younger team. But that really isn’t the case.
Last year’s Opening Day lineup totaled 311 years of age. And this year’s projected starting lineup for the first game totals...311 years of age! Granted, some of that is due to players such as Bonds, Omar Vizquel and Ray Durham remaining with the club and each getting a year older. But when you subtract a pair of 39-year-olds (Alou and Finley) and you’re still just as old, it spells stagnation to me.
In addition to changes to the player personnel, the Giants also have a new manager. Bruce Bochy moved north along the Left Coast from San Diego to San Fran in the offseason, replacing Felipe Alou who finished his four year run at the helm with a 342-304 record and one division title (2003). I still do not understand why Bochy wanted to make the move after 12 years with the Pads, the last two of which resulted in NL West crowns. But considering he’s 20 years younger than Alou, at least the Giants did get a lot younger on the dugout’s top step.
OFFENSE
That Bonds was able to lead the team in homers last year with 26 despite not being 100% healthy and trying to wean himself from the Clear-&-Cream habit he was tricked into taking is probably a testament to just how good Bonds really is. How much he has left in his soon to be 43-year-old tank and how much he will be pitched around or challenged by the opposition this year remains to be seen.
One of the Giants’ weaknesses last year was not having a true leadoff hitter, and they addressed that this winter with the signing of Dave Roberts who will play center. He is off a career-high 49 base thefts and has sported on-base marks of .356 and .360 the past two seasons for Bochy when both were with the Padres.
Randy Winn will shift to right after playing all three outfield positions last year. Reserve spots in the outfield will be some combination of Mark Sweeney, Jason Ellison and Todd Linden. Ryan Klesko, another new addition previously with the Padres, could also see some time in left in addition to backing up at first base.
Bengie Molina was inked in the winter to take over at catcher. His signing was necessitated in part by the retirement of defensive standout Mike Matheny who was forced out of the game due to concussions. Molina will be backed up by Eliezer Alfonzo who probably would be as good if not better at the plate and behind this year than Molina, and the Giants could have saved $15 million or so.
Around the horn on the infield, the projected starting foursome figures to be Rich Aurilia at first, Durham and Vizquel up the middle and Pedro Feliz at third. Aurilia can play all over the infield, but it appears the Giants will use him primarily at first since the backups there are Klesko and Lance Niekro who has frustrated San Francisco with his inability to make the next step into being a consistent major league hitter.
Durham is off a 26-HR campaign, a career-high, and it’s perplexing as to why he’s going to make less money the next two seasons with the Giants than Aurilia. Vizquel is Old Man River, bucking the odds of playing shortstop as well as he does at his age and continuing to build a resume that could land him a spot in Cooperstown eventually.
Over at third, Feliz is off his third straight 20+ HR season. He’s also off his second consecutive sub-.300 on-base mark and barely made it over .700 in the OPS column last year. If the Giants had signed Aurilia to play third and go with some Klesko-Niekro platoon at first, I’d have been more impressed.
Kevin Frandsen is the main reserve on the infield. As mentioned, Aurilia will probably get in a few games at various spots on the diamond as well. Justin Leone, yet another ex-Padre the Giants picked up, could force his way into a reserve role as well this spring, and might assume 3B chores if Feliz completely sputters or is injured.
PITCHING
If the Giants added Zito and kept Schmidt, there would likely be a lot of talk right now about San Fran being the favorite in the NL West. But they didn’t, and the Giants will now contend with the Diamondbacks and Rockies for scraps in the NL West. As it is, the Giants still have a pretty strong staff on paper. It remains to be seen exactly how the rotation will pan out, but Bochy is starting his spring schedule with Zito #1 followed by Matt Cain, Matt Morris and Noah Lowry.
Cain, picked by many to win the NL Rookie of the Year last season, got off to a rough start and sported an ERA over 7.00 in mid-May. He was able to cut that by about three runs by season’s end and, in fact, was down below 4.00 before his final three starts ballooned the calculation back up to the 4.15 he ended with. Morris fooled me and was able to lead the Giants with 33 starts a year ago, this despite a rib injury that he pitched through the last six weeks. But he also fooled the San Francisco front office that shelled out big bucks the previous offseason for him and got a 10-15, 4.98 pitcher instead for their $5+ million investment.
Lowry gives the Giants a second lefty in the rotation behind Zito. But he saw his ERA increase by a run last year and his strikeout rate substantially diminish. In his defense, he missed a lot of time early in the season with a bad wing.
San Francisco would like to see veteran Russ Ortiz win the fifth starter’s role, and that would make a nice story after Ortiz suffered a horrible 2006 with an 0-8 record and 8.48 ERA. In his last 33 starts and 15 relief appearances, the former 20-game winner is 5-19 with a 7.33 ERA. So don’t hold your breath, Russ Ortiz fans.
Brad Hennessey and Sun-Woo Kim are also vying for the fifth starting spot, as is young lefty Jonathan Sanchez, one of the top prospects in the organization. Sanchez bounced between the big league club and Triple-A squad last year, also bouncing between the bullpen and the rotation at both stops.
And then there’s young Tim Lincecum, the club’s top pick out of Washington last June. The kid is small, by power pitcher standards, but he’s got big league stuff. Expect him up with the club by season’s end and expect him to be the staff ace long before Zito’s contract runs out.
Armando Benitez is the closer once again after battling leg woes the last couple of seasons. He’ll be set up by Kevin Correia, Steve Kline, Brian Wilson and Vinnie Chulk. Kline is the lefty in the bunch, and Wilson, the former LSU Tiger, is the potential closer for San Fran at some point in his career.
Sanchez could add a second lefty to the pen assuming he doesn’t win a role in the rotation. Hennessey is another potential reliever, so the depth of the pen rides a lot on how well Ortiz does in camp this spring.
Key Player(s): While the bullpen isn’t exciting on paper, it should be ok as long as Benitez can close. Zito should step right in and assume the staff ace role from the departed Schmidt. Bonds will break Aaron’s record and will get a huge ovation amid the chase when the All-Star Game takes place in San Francisco this July.
The real keys will be Roberts atop the batting order and Cain pitching behind Zito in the rotation.
Futures: The Greek lists San Fran at +315 to win the NL West, with the over-under line for wins breaking at 80½. Bodog sets the win total a game higher at 81½, has them 8:1 to win the NL and 15:1 to win the World Series. Pinnacle has the Giants at +362 in the NL West.
My projections suggest they will finish third, again, behind the Dodgers and Padres in the NL West. I’ve got them at 79 wins.
A couple of Barry's, Bonds and Zito, are the stars, but it will take a lot of help from the rest of the lineup if the Giants hope to make the playoffs.
So I hear this Barry Bonds fellow is shooting for some record this year. The question isn’t so much if Bonds will hit the 22 homers he needs to pass Hank Aaron as the all-time leader. No, the real question is will anyone really care, aside from the media that is always looking for more controversy to sell?
San Francisco made some pretty major changes during the offseason, subtracting the likes of Moises Alou, Jason Schmidt and Steve Finley and adding Dave Roberts, Rich Aurilia and Barry Zito. One might surmise that lopping Alou and Finley from the roster means the Giants are a younger team. But that really isn’t the case.
Last year’s Opening Day lineup totaled 311 years of age. And this year’s projected starting lineup for the first game totals...311 years of age! Granted, some of that is due to players such as Bonds, Omar Vizquel and Ray Durham remaining with the club and each getting a year older. But when you subtract a pair of 39-year-olds (Alou and Finley) and you’re still just as old, it spells stagnation to me.
In addition to changes to the player personnel, the Giants also have a new manager. Bruce Bochy moved north along the Left Coast from San Diego to San Fran in the offseason, replacing Felipe Alou who finished his four year run at the helm with a 342-304 record and one division title (2003). I still do not understand why Bochy wanted to make the move after 12 years with the Pads, the last two of which resulted in NL West crowns. But considering he’s 20 years younger than Alou, at least the Giants did get a lot younger on the dugout’s top step.
OFFENSE
That Bonds was able to lead the team in homers last year with 26 despite not being 100% healthy and trying to wean himself from the Clear-&-Cream habit he was tricked into taking is probably a testament to just how good Bonds really is. How much he has left in his soon to be 43-year-old tank and how much he will be pitched around or challenged by the opposition this year remains to be seen.
One of the Giants’ weaknesses last year was not having a true leadoff hitter, and they addressed that this winter with the signing of Dave Roberts who will play center. He is off a career-high 49 base thefts and has sported on-base marks of .356 and .360 the past two seasons for Bochy when both were with the Padres.
Randy Winn will shift to right after playing all three outfield positions last year. Reserve spots in the outfield will be some combination of Mark Sweeney, Jason Ellison and Todd Linden. Ryan Klesko, another new addition previously with the Padres, could also see some time in left in addition to backing up at first base.
Bengie Molina was inked in the winter to take over at catcher. His signing was necessitated in part by the retirement of defensive standout Mike Matheny who was forced out of the game due to concussions. Molina will be backed up by Eliezer Alfonzo who probably would be as good if not better at the plate and behind this year than Molina, and the Giants could have saved $15 million or so.
Around the horn on the infield, the projected starting foursome figures to be Rich Aurilia at first, Durham and Vizquel up the middle and Pedro Feliz at third. Aurilia can play all over the infield, but it appears the Giants will use him primarily at first since the backups there are Klesko and Lance Niekro who has frustrated San Francisco with his inability to make the next step into being a consistent major league hitter.
Durham is off a 26-HR campaign, a career-high, and it’s perplexing as to why he’s going to make less money the next two seasons with the Giants than Aurilia. Vizquel is Old Man River, bucking the odds of playing shortstop as well as he does at his age and continuing to build a resume that could land him a spot in Cooperstown eventually.
Over at third, Feliz is off his third straight 20+ HR season. He’s also off his second consecutive sub-.300 on-base mark and barely made it over .700 in the OPS column last year. If the Giants had signed Aurilia to play third and go with some Klesko-Niekro platoon at first, I’d have been more impressed.
Kevin Frandsen is the main reserve on the infield. As mentioned, Aurilia will probably get in a few games at various spots on the diamond as well. Justin Leone, yet another ex-Padre the Giants picked up, could force his way into a reserve role as well this spring, and might assume 3B chores if Feliz completely sputters or is injured.
PITCHING
If the Giants added Zito and kept Schmidt, there would likely be a lot of talk right now about San Fran being the favorite in the NL West. But they didn’t, and the Giants will now contend with the Diamondbacks and Rockies for scraps in the NL West. As it is, the Giants still have a pretty strong staff on paper. It remains to be seen exactly how the rotation will pan out, but Bochy is starting his spring schedule with Zito #1 followed by Matt Cain, Matt Morris and Noah Lowry.
Cain, picked by many to win the NL Rookie of the Year last season, got off to a rough start and sported an ERA over 7.00 in mid-May. He was able to cut that by about three runs by season’s end and, in fact, was down below 4.00 before his final three starts ballooned the calculation back up to the 4.15 he ended with. Morris fooled me and was able to lead the Giants with 33 starts a year ago, this despite a rib injury that he pitched through the last six weeks. But he also fooled the San Francisco front office that shelled out big bucks the previous offseason for him and got a 10-15, 4.98 pitcher instead for their $5+ million investment.
Lowry gives the Giants a second lefty in the rotation behind Zito. But he saw his ERA increase by a run last year and his strikeout rate substantially diminish. In his defense, he missed a lot of time early in the season with a bad wing.
San Francisco would like to see veteran Russ Ortiz win the fifth starter’s role, and that would make a nice story after Ortiz suffered a horrible 2006 with an 0-8 record and 8.48 ERA. In his last 33 starts and 15 relief appearances, the former 20-game winner is 5-19 with a 7.33 ERA. So don’t hold your breath, Russ Ortiz fans.
Brad Hennessey and Sun-Woo Kim are also vying for the fifth starting spot, as is young lefty Jonathan Sanchez, one of the top prospects in the organization. Sanchez bounced between the big league club and Triple-A squad last year, also bouncing between the bullpen and the rotation at both stops.
And then there’s young Tim Lincecum, the club’s top pick out of Washington last June. The kid is small, by power pitcher standards, but he’s got big league stuff. Expect him up with the club by season’s end and expect him to be the staff ace long before Zito’s contract runs out.
Armando Benitez is the closer once again after battling leg woes the last couple of seasons. He’ll be set up by Kevin Correia, Steve Kline, Brian Wilson and Vinnie Chulk. Kline is the lefty in the bunch, and Wilson, the former LSU Tiger, is the potential closer for San Fran at some point in his career.
Sanchez could add a second lefty to the pen assuming he doesn’t win a role in the rotation. Hennessey is another potential reliever, so the depth of the pen rides a lot on how well Ortiz does in camp this spring.
Key Player(s): While the bullpen isn’t exciting on paper, it should be ok as long as Benitez can close. Zito should step right in and assume the staff ace role from the departed Schmidt. Bonds will break Aaron’s record and will get a huge ovation amid the chase when the All-Star Game takes place in San Francisco this July.
The real keys will be Roberts atop the batting order and Cain pitching behind Zito in the rotation.
Futures: The Greek lists San Fran at +315 to win the NL West, with the over-under line for wins breaking at 80½. Bodog sets the win total a game higher at 81½, has them 8:1 to win the NL and 15:1 to win the World Series. Pinnacle has the Giants at +362 in the NL West.
My projections suggest they will finish third, again, behind the Dodgers and Padres in the NL West. I’ve got them at 79 wins.