Brew Crew's health the major concern
Injuries depleted their infield and derailed their staff ace in 2006 after being picked to contend in the NL Central. Health will be a concern again in 2007.
Maybe the projections were a season premature. Picked by many to be among the contenders in the NL Central and to have a solid shot at their first postseason appearance since back-to-back AL East titles in 1981-82, the franchise’s only playoff showings, Milwaukee finished six wins below the break-even mark in 2006.
Of course, that 75-87 record wasn’t that far behind the Cardinals who won the division and, ultimately, baseball’s big prize. But it was still a good 7-10 wins fewer than most forecast for the Brew Crew. And those extra wins could’ve put them in the postseason.
Milwaukee made just two major changes since the end of last year, adding catcher Johnny Estrada in a trade with Arizona and signing free agent right-hander Jeff Suppan who had spent the previous three seasons in St. Louis. Both are solid players, though unspectacular, but their additions won’t be enough to push Milwaukee over the hump this season.
No, like practically every other club, keeping a few players they already had healthy for an entire year is what will push the Brewers into contention for October baseball this time around.
OFFENSE
The aforementioned Estrada will team with Damian Miller to give Milwaukee a catching tandem that most other clubs will envy. Estrada’s bat has never an issue as he’s batted .294 over his last three seasons and has a little pop.
The right side of the Brewers’ infield has Prince Fielder at first and Rickie Weeks at second, with the young duo counted on to drive Milwaukee’s offense this season and for seasons to come. Fielder popped 28 homers in his rookie season, managed to hit a respectable .271 and showed he wasn’t a huge liability at first despite his less than graceful physique. Weeks is coming off wrist surgery, so that is a concern entering the season. Healthy, he’s a legitimate 20-40 candidate, and he made strides both defensively and offensively last year before the wrist injury sidelined him.
Corey Koskie and JJ Hardy round out the infield at third and short respectively. Like Weeks, Hardy is coming off surgery, though to his ankle and not his wrist. Never known as an offensive threat, Hardy will be expected to stabilize the infield with his defense.
Koskie is also trying to come back from injury as he missed most of 2006 with lingering effects from a concussion. If he can’t get medical clearance, it could lead the Brewers to platoon Tony Graffanino and Craig Counsell at the hot corner. Both were being counted on to provide infield depth, primarily in the middle of the diamond. There’s also a slight chance that Ryan J. Braun, the fifth overall pick in 2005 out of Miami (FL), could push his way into the 3B picture with a most excellent showing this spring.
The club could also opt for using Bill Hall at third. That makes the most sense due to Hall’s bat (35 HR, 85 RBI). But it would also upset Milwaukee’s plans to move the versatile Hall to centerfield. If they do pull Hall back into the infield, it would likely mean a platoon of Brady Clark and Laynce Nix in center. Over the past three seasons, Hall has played all over the map with 230 games at shortstop, 81 at third base and 73 at second base.
That the Brewers have players like Clark and Nix to fall back on is a testament to their outfield depth. But the outfield is far from settled at this time. Geoff Jenkins figures into the mix and is probably better suited for left. But that leaves Kevin Mench and Corey Hart in right, and both would probably be better suited in left as well. Actually, Mench is probably better suited for a DH role, but he’s no longer in the American League after coming over from the Rangers last summer. Stay tuned on how everything pans out for Milwaukee defensively.
PITCHING
Remember those 7-10 wins that Milwaukee fell short of in 2006? While having a healthy Weeks, Hardy and Koskie in the lineup would have helped, the shortfall in the wins column can probably be traced directly to a pair of arms that Milwaukee sis, and didn’t, have at their disposal last season.
Ben Sheets was never a factor for Milwaukee last season despite making 17 starts. The right-hander out of Louisiana missed the tail end of the ’05 campaign with a back injury and probably tried to come back too soon last spring before re-injuring the muscle that sapped him of his strong heater. That he was able to maintain his impeccable control - - 11 walks in 106 innings - - and keep his ERA below 4.00 is amazing. He will need to make 30+ starts in 2007 for the Brewers to be even close to contention at the end. Either that or the rest of the pitching staff will need to come through with career seasons.
Speaking of career seasons, reliever Derrick Turnbow had one in 2005. The righty, who had been picked up off waivers from the Angels the preceding winter, dominated the opposition to the tune of a 1.74 ERA and 39 saves. Milwaukee looked to have scored the baseball equivalent of buying Microsoft stock in 1976. But then 2006 rolled around and, while he did notch 24 saves, Turnbow’s ERA rose by over five runs and he eventually lost the closer’s job to Francisco Cordero who came over in the same deal that brought Mench and Nix from the Rangers for slugger Carlos Lee.
Cordero got off to a rather rough start closing for Texas, but rediscovered his ways in Milwaukee during the end of the season with a 1.69 ERA and 26 saves in 28 games. Turnbow will compete for middle and setup relief now with Jose Capellan, Matt Wise, Luther Hackman, Chris Spurling, Greg Aquino, Dennis Sarfate and Brian Shouse, with the 38-year-old Shouse the only southpaw of the bunch.
Behind Sheets in the rotation, Suppan is expected to assume the #2 role, though that might be a bit lofty for Soup. Lefty Chris Capuano (11-12, 4.03) and right-hander Dave Bush (12-11, 4.41) will man the 3-4 holes, and I’m expecting Bush to realize some of the potential that made him an early pick out of Wake Forest in 2002.
Claudio Vargas, acquired from Arizona in the deal that also brought Estrada in exchange for left-hander Doug Davis, will round out the rotation. Carlos Villanueva might be the first starter called up if there’s an injury or Vargas blows up. Zach Jackson, a lefty, and Yovani Gallardo could also get the call at some point this season.
Key Player(s): Keeping Sheets and Weeks healthy for the entire season would go a long, long way for the Brewers in 2007.
Futures: The Greek has the over/under for wins at 81½, the exact same place they were set there in late March 2006. Pinnacle lists the Brewers at +625 to win NL Central, right in line with VIP that has Milwaukee at 6:1, with VIP listing 20:1 odds on the Brew Crew to win the NL Pennant.
My projections in 2006 had them at 84 wins if everything went just right, and they didn’t. This year, I’m ramping it down a bit and going with an even-Steven season for Milwaukee, 81-81. The bullpen is a bit scary, and there are too many injuries coming into camp to predict anything much higher.
Injuries depleted their infield and derailed their staff ace in 2006 after being picked to contend in the NL Central. Health will be a concern again in 2007.
Maybe the projections were a season premature. Picked by many to be among the contenders in the NL Central and to have a solid shot at their first postseason appearance since back-to-back AL East titles in 1981-82, the franchise’s only playoff showings, Milwaukee finished six wins below the break-even mark in 2006.
Of course, that 75-87 record wasn’t that far behind the Cardinals who won the division and, ultimately, baseball’s big prize. But it was still a good 7-10 wins fewer than most forecast for the Brew Crew. And those extra wins could’ve put them in the postseason.
Milwaukee made just two major changes since the end of last year, adding catcher Johnny Estrada in a trade with Arizona and signing free agent right-hander Jeff Suppan who had spent the previous three seasons in St. Louis. Both are solid players, though unspectacular, but their additions won’t be enough to push Milwaukee over the hump this season.
No, like practically every other club, keeping a few players they already had healthy for an entire year is what will push the Brewers into contention for October baseball this time around.
OFFENSE
The aforementioned Estrada will team with Damian Miller to give Milwaukee a catching tandem that most other clubs will envy. Estrada’s bat has never an issue as he’s batted .294 over his last three seasons and has a little pop.
The right side of the Brewers’ infield has Prince Fielder at first and Rickie Weeks at second, with the young duo counted on to drive Milwaukee’s offense this season and for seasons to come. Fielder popped 28 homers in his rookie season, managed to hit a respectable .271 and showed he wasn’t a huge liability at first despite his less than graceful physique. Weeks is coming off wrist surgery, so that is a concern entering the season. Healthy, he’s a legitimate 20-40 candidate, and he made strides both defensively and offensively last year before the wrist injury sidelined him.
Corey Koskie and JJ Hardy round out the infield at third and short respectively. Like Weeks, Hardy is coming off surgery, though to his ankle and not his wrist. Never known as an offensive threat, Hardy will be expected to stabilize the infield with his defense.
Koskie is also trying to come back from injury as he missed most of 2006 with lingering effects from a concussion. If he can’t get medical clearance, it could lead the Brewers to platoon Tony Graffanino and Craig Counsell at the hot corner. Both were being counted on to provide infield depth, primarily in the middle of the diamond. There’s also a slight chance that Ryan J. Braun, the fifth overall pick in 2005 out of Miami (FL), could push his way into the 3B picture with a most excellent showing this spring.
The club could also opt for using Bill Hall at third. That makes the most sense due to Hall’s bat (35 HR, 85 RBI). But it would also upset Milwaukee’s plans to move the versatile Hall to centerfield. If they do pull Hall back into the infield, it would likely mean a platoon of Brady Clark and Laynce Nix in center. Over the past three seasons, Hall has played all over the map with 230 games at shortstop, 81 at third base and 73 at second base.
That the Brewers have players like Clark and Nix to fall back on is a testament to their outfield depth. But the outfield is far from settled at this time. Geoff Jenkins figures into the mix and is probably better suited for left. But that leaves Kevin Mench and Corey Hart in right, and both would probably be better suited in left as well. Actually, Mench is probably better suited for a DH role, but he’s no longer in the American League after coming over from the Rangers last summer. Stay tuned on how everything pans out for Milwaukee defensively.
PITCHING
Remember those 7-10 wins that Milwaukee fell short of in 2006? While having a healthy Weeks, Hardy and Koskie in the lineup would have helped, the shortfall in the wins column can probably be traced directly to a pair of arms that Milwaukee sis, and didn’t, have at their disposal last season.
Ben Sheets was never a factor for Milwaukee last season despite making 17 starts. The right-hander out of Louisiana missed the tail end of the ’05 campaign with a back injury and probably tried to come back too soon last spring before re-injuring the muscle that sapped him of his strong heater. That he was able to maintain his impeccable control - - 11 walks in 106 innings - - and keep his ERA below 4.00 is amazing. He will need to make 30+ starts in 2007 for the Brewers to be even close to contention at the end. Either that or the rest of the pitching staff will need to come through with career seasons.
Speaking of career seasons, reliever Derrick Turnbow had one in 2005. The righty, who had been picked up off waivers from the Angels the preceding winter, dominated the opposition to the tune of a 1.74 ERA and 39 saves. Milwaukee looked to have scored the baseball equivalent of buying Microsoft stock in 1976. But then 2006 rolled around and, while he did notch 24 saves, Turnbow’s ERA rose by over five runs and he eventually lost the closer’s job to Francisco Cordero who came over in the same deal that brought Mench and Nix from the Rangers for slugger Carlos Lee.
Cordero got off to a rather rough start closing for Texas, but rediscovered his ways in Milwaukee during the end of the season with a 1.69 ERA and 26 saves in 28 games. Turnbow will compete for middle and setup relief now with Jose Capellan, Matt Wise, Luther Hackman, Chris Spurling, Greg Aquino, Dennis Sarfate and Brian Shouse, with the 38-year-old Shouse the only southpaw of the bunch.
Behind Sheets in the rotation, Suppan is expected to assume the #2 role, though that might be a bit lofty for Soup. Lefty Chris Capuano (11-12, 4.03) and right-hander Dave Bush (12-11, 4.41) will man the 3-4 holes, and I’m expecting Bush to realize some of the potential that made him an early pick out of Wake Forest in 2002.
Claudio Vargas, acquired from Arizona in the deal that also brought Estrada in exchange for left-hander Doug Davis, will round out the rotation. Carlos Villanueva might be the first starter called up if there’s an injury or Vargas blows up. Zach Jackson, a lefty, and Yovani Gallardo could also get the call at some point this season.
Key Player(s): Keeping Sheets and Weeks healthy for the entire season would go a long, long way for the Brewers in 2007.
Futures: The Greek has the over/under for wins at 81½, the exact same place they were set there in late March 2006. Pinnacle lists the Brewers at +625 to win NL Central, right in line with VIP that has Milwaukee at 6:1, with VIP listing 20:1 odds on the Brew Crew to win the NL Pennant.
My projections in 2006 had them at 84 wins if everything went just right, and they didn’t. This year, I’m ramping it down a bit and going with an even-Steven season for Milwaukee, 81-81. The bullpen is a bit scary, and there are too many injuries coming into camp to predict anything much higher.