Another long summer in Pittsburgh
At least Pirates fans had their Super Bowl win to think about last summer. This season, they don't even have that to brighten their day.
The good news in Pittsburgh last year was they didn’t finish last in the NL Central after most preseason forecasts put them in the cellar of the division with room to spare. After ending up 33 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals in the division’s basement in 2005, the Pirates cut that gap in half to wind up 16½ games south of the Cards’ divisional title in 2006.
The bad news is the reason Pittsburgh was able to cut into that margin between them and St. Louis had more to do with the Cardinals’ mediocre regular season win total of 83 that was good enough to win the NL Central. The Pirates finished with the same 67-95 record in 2006 that they fashioned in 2005, and despite being closer to the top in the GB column, Pittsburgh really was never in the race in 2006.
And the really bad news is the team that kept Pittsburgh from the title of worst in both the NL and the NL Central went on a big shopping spree during the winter and will very likely leave the Pirates in their dust this season. Chicago finished a game behind Pittsburgh in 2006, but if the Cubs finish less than 10 games ahead of the Bucs this season, it will be nothing short of a miracle after adding the likes of Alfonso Soriano, Cliff Floyd, Ted Lilly and others to the North Side fold.
The Pirates’ additions? Adam LaRoche was brought in from Atlanta at the expense of last year’s closer in Pittsburgh, Mike Gonzalez. And the Bucs also added a big name pitcher from Japan. No, not Daisuke Matsuzaka, the young Japanese arm that Boston corralled for a little more than $100 million. We’re talking about Masumi Kuwata who signed a minor league deal to come to the US in an attempt to be a major league pitcher about a decade after his last big hurrah of a season for the Yomiuri Giants.
It’s going to be a long summer of hardball for Pirates fans.
OFFENSE
The addition of LaRoche to the batting order should help the Pirates out, at least a little. The son of former big league pitcher Dave LaRoche, Adam had a nice season for the Braves last year with a career high 32 homers and 90 RBI to go with career bests in doubles (38), average (.285), on-base percentage (.354) and slugging (.561). But expecting the second coming of Willie Stargell is asking too much as LaRoche is more likely to resemble the second coming of Sid Bream.
If nothing else, LaRoche could give Jason Bay a little protection in the lineup. Bay did increase his HR and RBI count by a few last year, but the rest of his numbers took a dip. I say LaRoche could help Bay, but only if manager Jim Tracy bats Bay in front of LaRoche. At last, that may not be the case as Tracy is mulling Bay in the 5-hole behind his new first baseman.
Freddy Sanchez will be back to defend his NL batting crown after a solid .344 mark last season. But right now, it’s not clear exactly where Sanchez will play in the infield. A spring battle between Jose Castillo and Jose Bautista looms, with Sanchez at second and Bautista at third, or Sanchez at third and Castillo at second.
Jack Wilson is set at shortstop and, presumably, his lifetime .306 on-base mark will be back at or near the top of the batting order since Tracy apparently is oblivious when it comes to the stat and its importance, especially at the top of an order.
One of the best-kept secrets in the NL last year was Pittsburgh Ronny Paulino who hit .310 while working 124 games behind the dish.
Bay will be joined in the outfield by some mix that includes Chris Duffy, Nate McLouth, Jody Gerut, Xavier Nady and Luis Matos who was claimed from Baltimore. Nady will also see tome time at first.
PITCHING
Though the position players and regular batting lineup isn’t exactly going to strike a lot of fear into their opposition’s hearts, the offense is a lot scarier than Pittsburgh’s pitching looks heading into the season. With Zach Duke at the head of the rotation, the team’s motto this season could turn out to be, “Duke, puke and pray for rain.”
The lefty out of Midway, Texas, regressed a little from his excellent 2005 form when the league was still trying to figure Duke out. And he should improve this year now that he has a full season under his belt. But expecting him to win more than 12 of his 32-34 starts this year is asking a lot.
Behind Duke the rotation will find right-hander Ian Snell (14-11, 4.74) and a pair of southpaws, Paul Maholm (8-10, 4.76) and Tom Gorzelanny (2-5, 3.79). Any of them would be fine as your fifth starter going into a season, but they could fill the 2-3-4 roles for the Pirates instead. Gorzelanny might be the most interesting of the three, assuming his elbow holds up.
The reason those three are strong candidates for the 2-3-4 slots in the rotation is that the only other options to open the year for Pittsburgh are retreads Shawn Chacon and Tony Armas, Jr. Granted, the Pirates have about $7 million tied up in the pair for the upcoming season. But Chacon is already dropping hints that his knees are acting up and Armas has never shown a thing since his shoulder surgery in 2003-04.
A name to watch for at some point this season is Cuban defector Yoslan Herrera who is between 25 and 30 years old, depending on what you believe. Pittsburgh doesn’t plan on rushing him into the bigs and will start him in the minors.
With Gonzalez gone from the bullpen picture, Salomon Torres who quickly took to the role of closer last September when Gonzalez hit the DL. Torres has tossed 90+ innings of relief the last three seasons for Pittsburgh with solid results.
Matt Capps, who went 9-1 out of the pen in 2006, and Damaso Marte should be the primary setup arms for now, with middle relief going to the likes of Dan Kolb, John Wasdin, John Grabow and the aforementioned Kuwata.
Key Player(s): Chris Duffy and Jack Wilson, whoever hits highest in the batting order, will be very crucial for the Pirates. And Torres has to close out 95% of his save opportunities.
Futures: Even if Torres does close out 95% of his save chances, 70 wins looks like the best the Pirates will do this year. Right now, I foresee another 67-win campaign.
Pittsburgh is listed at +3314 this morning to win the NL Central over at Pinnacle, slightly better than the Nationals’ odds in the NL East. The Greek lists their break mark for regular season wins at 70½ (-110), and I definitely like the under there. You can also package the Pirates with the Houston Astros at +805 to win the NL Central at The Greek. VIP has Pittsburgh at 14:1 to win their division, 60:1 to win the NL and 75:1 to win the World Series.
At least Pirates fans had their Super Bowl win to think about last summer. This season, they don't even have that to brighten their day.
The good news in Pittsburgh last year was they didn’t finish last in the NL Central after most preseason forecasts put them in the cellar of the division with room to spare. After ending up 33 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals in the division’s basement in 2005, the Pirates cut that gap in half to wind up 16½ games south of the Cards’ divisional title in 2006.
The bad news is the reason Pittsburgh was able to cut into that margin between them and St. Louis had more to do with the Cardinals’ mediocre regular season win total of 83 that was good enough to win the NL Central. The Pirates finished with the same 67-95 record in 2006 that they fashioned in 2005, and despite being closer to the top in the GB column, Pittsburgh really was never in the race in 2006.
And the really bad news is the team that kept Pittsburgh from the title of worst in both the NL and the NL Central went on a big shopping spree during the winter and will very likely leave the Pirates in their dust this season. Chicago finished a game behind Pittsburgh in 2006, but if the Cubs finish less than 10 games ahead of the Bucs this season, it will be nothing short of a miracle after adding the likes of Alfonso Soriano, Cliff Floyd, Ted Lilly and others to the North Side fold.
The Pirates’ additions? Adam LaRoche was brought in from Atlanta at the expense of last year’s closer in Pittsburgh, Mike Gonzalez. And the Bucs also added a big name pitcher from Japan. No, not Daisuke Matsuzaka, the young Japanese arm that Boston corralled for a little more than $100 million. We’re talking about Masumi Kuwata who signed a minor league deal to come to the US in an attempt to be a major league pitcher about a decade after his last big hurrah of a season for the Yomiuri Giants.
It’s going to be a long summer of hardball for Pirates fans.
OFFENSE
The addition of LaRoche to the batting order should help the Pirates out, at least a little. The son of former big league pitcher Dave LaRoche, Adam had a nice season for the Braves last year with a career high 32 homers and 90 RBI to go with career bests in doubles (38), average (.285), on-base percentage (.354) and slugging (.561). But expecting the second coming of Willie Stargell is asking too much as LaRoche is more likely to resemble the second coming of Sid Bream.
If nothing else, LaRoche could give Jason Bay a little protection in the lineup. Bay did increase his HR and RBI count by a few last year, but the rest of his numbers took a dip. I say LaRoche could help Bay, but only if manager Jim Tracy bats Bay in front of LaRoche. At last, that may not be the case as Tracy is mulling Bay in the 5-hole behind his new first baseman.
Freddy Sanchez will be back to defend his NL batting crown after a solid .344 mark last season. But right now, it’s not clear exactly where Sanchez will play in the infield. A spring battle between Jose Castillo and Jose Bautista looms, with Sanchez at second and Bautista at third, or Sanchez at third and Castillo at second.
Jack Wilson is set at shortstop and, presumably, his lifetime .306 on-base mark will be back at or near the top of the batting order since Tracy apparently is oblivious when it comes to the stat and its importance, especially at the top of an order.
One of the best-kept secrets in the NL last year was Pittsburgh Ronny Paulino who hit .310 while working 124 games behind the dish.
Bay will be joined in the outfield by some mix that includes Chris Duffy, Nate McLouth, Jody Gerut, Xavier Nady and Luis Matos who was claimed from Baltimore. Nady will also see tome time at first.
PITCHING
Though the position players and regular batting lineup isn’t exactly going to strike a lot of fear into their opposition’s hearts, the offense is a lot scarier than Pittsburgh’s pitching looks heading into the season. With Zach Duke at the head of the rotation, the team’s motto this season could turn out to be, “Duke, puke and pray for rain.”
The lefty out of Midway, Texas, regressed a little from his excellent 2005 form when the league was still trying to figure Duke out. And he should improve this year now that he has a full season under his belt. But expecting him to win more than 12 of his 32-34 starts this year is asking a lot.
Behind Duke the rotation will find right-hander Ian Snell (14-11, 4.74) and a pair of southpaws, Paul Maholm (8-10, 4.76) and Tom Gorzelanny (2-5, 3.79). Any of them would be fine as your fifth starter going into a season, but they could fill the 2-3-4 roles for the Pirates instead. Gorzelanny might be the most interesting of the three, assuming his elbow holds up.
The reason those three are strong candidates for the 2-3-4 slots in the rotation is that the only other options to open the year for Pittsburgh are retreads Shawn Chacon and Tony Armas, Jr. Granted, the Pirates have about $7 million tied up in the pair for the upcoming season. But Chacon is already dropping hints that his knees are acting up and Armas has never shown a thing since his shoulder surgery in 2003-04.
A name to watch for at some point this season is Cuban defector Yoslan Herrera who is between 25 and 30 years old, depending on what you believe. Pittsburgh doesn’t plan on rushing him into the bigs and will start him in the minors.
With Gonzalez gone from the bullpen picture, Salomon Torres who quickly took to the role of closer last September when Gonzalez hit the DL. Torres has tossed 90+ innings of relief the last three seasons for Pittsburgh with solid results.
Matt Capps, who went 9-1 out of the pen in 2006, and Damaso Marte should be the primary setup arms for now, with middle relief going to the likes of Dan Kolb, John Wasdin, John Grabow and the aforementioned Kuwata.
Key Player(s): Chris Duffy and Jack Wilson, whoever hits highest in the batting order, will be very crucial for the Pirates. And Torres has to close out 95% of his save opportunities.
Futures: Even if Torres does close out 95% of his save chances, 70 wins looks like the best the Pirates will do this year. Right now, I foresee another 67-win campaign.
Pittsburgh is listed at +3314 this morning to win the NL Central over at Pinnacle, slightly better than the Nationals’ odds in the NL East. The Greek lists their break mark for regular season wins at 70½ (-110), and I definitely like the under there. You can also package the Pirates with the Houston Astros at +805 to win the NL Central at The Greek. VIP has Pittsburgh at 14:1 to win their division, 60:1 to win the NL and 75:1 to win the World Series.