Rays have hope, but no pitching
Our 2007 MLB team-by-team preview leads off with the lowly Tampa Bay Devil Rays who appear destined for yet another cellar season in the AL East.
It’s that time of year that even fans of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays can feel good about their team and have hope for the upcoming season.
Ok, Rays fans, time’s up.
That Tampa Bay has some exciting young talent, especially on offense, is a fact. Also a fact is the Devil Rays play in the AL East where just finishing second can be seen as a huge success. And for the Devil Rays, finishing third or even fourth would be a remarkable season.
The team finished with an MLB-low 61 wins in 2006 and finished last in the division for the eighth time in the franchise’s 9-year history. That was six fewer wins than the season before which was three fewer than the club-best 70 wins and high-tide mark of fourth in the AL East in 2004.
Approaching the 70-win plateau is possible this year, as long as they stay healthy on offense and get something, almost anything from their mound corps. Right now, I’ve got them at 65 wins.
OFFENSE
The group has the potential to put runs, and a lot of ‘em, on the board. Carl Crawford, the player everyone would like to wrest from Tampa’s hold, will play left and serve as the catalyst and could reach 20-HR, 60-SB levels this season. To his left in the outfield will be Rocco Baldelli in center, with Baldelli the subject of several trade rumors this offseason. Baldelli is attractive for a two reasons, those being he’s got immense talent and he’s already inked for several years to come at a very affordable rate.
Over in right field, Delmon Young is being counted on to take the next step, both professionally and in terms of maturity. His 30-game, 126-AB cup of coffee last year suggests he will be able to handle the baseball side. But can he harness the temper that led to him receiving a 50-game suspension in the minor last year for flipping his bat at an umpire?
Jonny Gomes, Greg Norton and Dustan Mohr enter spring as outfield backups and possible DH candidates. Gomes did crack 20 flies last year when a few injuries hampered him, but his .216 batting average from 2006 has to improve.
The infield will have a totally new look on the left side with a pair of rookies. Ben Zobrist, off his strong showing in the Arizona Fall League enters camp with the shortstop job his to lose. And Akinnori Iwamura, who slid in under the radar this winter with most of the media’s focus on Daisuke Matsuzaka coming this direction across the Pacific, will be at third, at least to start Spring Training. Iwamura may eventually give way at third for BJ Upton or Evan Longoria, two of Tampa’s most prized prospects.
Jorge Cantu who, like Gomes, was on and off the DL in a disappointing 2006, is the second baseman for now with Ty Wiggington and Hee Seop Choi at first.
Upton might actually hold the key to the Rays’ chances to approach or even break that 70-win mark. With Iwamura already inked and Longoria behind him in the minors, Tampa Bay could explore trading the sky’s the limit youngster to get some much-needed pitching. That is if Baldelli isn’t dealt for arms.
Behind the plate will be Dionner Navarro and Josh Paul. Adequate would probably be the nicest way to assess their talents.
PITCHING
Let’s see, the Devil Rays have young lefty Scott Kazmir and, uh, er, did I mention Scott Kazmir yet?
The 23-year-old southpaw, all but stolen from the Mets in a 2005 trade, is definitely the ace of this staff. But after persistent shoulder trouble in ’06, Kazmir is still a risk. He made 24 starts with a fine 3.24 ERA and better than a 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. But his 144+ innings were the closest any Tampa pitcher came to qualifying for the ERA title, and without a couple of pitchers that can be counted on for at least 30 starts and close to 200 IP this year, the Rays could even see more losses than the 101 they accrued in 2006.
Behind Kazmir in the rotation is a ball of yarn, roll of duct tape and a bag of magic beans that manager Joe Maddon carries around with him at all times.
Casey Fossum, another lefty who went down with shoulder problems last year, is coming off some minor shoulder surgery in September and is hopeful he’ll be ready to go sometime in spring. James Shields and Jae Seo, a pair of right-handers, are the leading candidates for two slots in the rotation at this time. And it’s a wide open race, as it is for numerous teams, for the fifth slot entering Spring Training with JP Howell, Brian Stokes, Tim Corcoran and Jason Hammel in the hunt.
The all-important bullpen currently lists Seth McClung as closer. He’s big, throws in the mid-to-upper 90s and has a calm demeanor on the mound, just what you want in a closer. But what you don’t want is that lifetime 6.27 ERA in 251 innings with a 1.64 WHIP.
Dan Miceli, Shawn Camp and Ruddy Lugo are the top candidates for setup work right now. Tampa’s last Japanese import, Shinji Mori, is another possibility if he shows anything off labrum surgery that derailed him in 2006. And one more name to watch for this spring is Edwin Jackson, the right-hander the Rays picked up from the Dodgers before the 2006 season. Jackson worked out this winter in the Venezuelan League and could be a wildcard for either a major relief role or a spot in the rotation.
Key Player(s): It sounds like a copout, but whoever is on the mound is the key player for the Devil Rays in 2007. Tampa is going to have to listen to deals for either Baldelli or Upton if they want to really bring in an impact arm or two and make the leap from being perennial cellar dwellers in the AL East, even if that leap is just from fifth to fourth.
Futures: Pinnacle has the Rays at 50/1 to win the AL East, Bodog has them at 70/1 for the ALE and 200/1 to win it all, and VIP has 50/1 for the division and 100/1 to win the World Series. If everything goes right, they can reach 65 wins. If they do make a deal for a top-flight pitcher, they might even reach 68-70.
Our 2007 MLB team-by-team preview leads off with the lowly Tampa Bay Devil Rays who appear destined for yet another cellar season in the AL East.
It’s that time of year that even fans of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays can feel good about their team and have hope for the upcoming season.
Ok, Rays fans, time’s up.
That Tampa Bay has some exciting young talent, especially on offense, is a fact. Also a fact is the Devil Rays play in the AL East where just finishing second can be seen as a huge success. And for the Devil Rays, finishing third or even fourth would be a remarkable season.
The team finished with an MLB-low 61 wins in 2006 and finished last in the division for the eighth time in the franchise’s 9-year history. That was six fewer wins than the season before which was three fewer than the club-best 70 wins and high-tide mark of fourth in the AL East in 2004.
Approaching the 70-win plateau is possible this year, as long as they stay healthy on offense and get something, almost anything from their mound corps. Right now, I’ve got them at 65 wins.
OFFENSE
The group has the potential to put runs, and a lot of ‘em, on the board. Carl Crawford, the player everyone would like to wrest from Tampa’s hold, will play left and serve as the catalyst and could reach 20-HR, 60-SB levels this season. To his left in the outfield will be Rocco Baldelli in center, with Baldelli the subject of several trade rumors this offseason. Baldelli is attractive for a two reasons, those being he’s got immense talent and he’s already inked for several years to come at a very affordable rate.
Over in right field, Delmon Young is being counted on to take the next step, both professionally and in terms of maturity. His 30-game, 126-AB cup of coffee last year suggests he will be able to handle the baseball side. But can he harness the temper that led to him receiving a 50-game suspension in the minor last year for flipping his bat at an umpire?
Jonny Gomes, Greg Norton and Dustan Mohr enter spring as outfield backups and possible DH candidates. Gomes did crack 20 flies last year when a few injuries hampered him, but his .216 batting average from 2006 has to improve.
The infield will have a totally new look on the left side with a pair of rookies. Ben Zobrist, off his strong showing in the Arizona Fall League enters camp with the shortstop job his to lose. And Akinnori Iwamura, who slid in under the radar this winter with most of the media’s focus on Daisuke Matsuzaka coming this direction across the Pacific, will be at third, at least to start Spring Training. Iwamura may eventually give way at third for BJ Upton or Evan Longoria, two of Tampa’s most prized prospects.
Jorge Cantu who, like Gomes, was on and off the DL in a disappointing 2006, is the second baseman for now with Ty Wiggington and Hee Seop Choi at first.
Upton might actually hold the key to the Rays’ chances to approach or even break that 70-win mark. With Iwamura already inked and Longoria behind him in the minors, Tampa Bay could explore trading the sky’s the limit youngster to get some much-needed pitching. That is if Baldelli isn’t dealt for arms.
Behind the plate will be Dionner Navarro and Josh Paul. Adequate would probably be the nicest way to assess their talents.
PITCHING
Let’s see, the Devil Rays have young lefty Scott Kazmir and, uh, er, did I mention Scott Kazmir yet?
The 23-year-old southpaw, all but stolen from the Mets in a 2005 trade, is definitely the ace of this staff. But after persistent shoulder trouble in ’06, Kazmir is still a risk. He made 24 starts with a fine 3.24 ERA and better than a 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. But his 144+ innings were the closest any Tampa pitcher came to qualifying for the ERA title, and without a couple of pitchers that can be counted on for at least 30 starts and close to 200 IP this year, the Rays could even see more losses than the 101 they accrued in 2006.
Behind Kazmir in the rotation is a ball of yarn, roll of duct tape and a bag of magic beans that manager Joe Maddon carries around with him at all times.
Casey Fossum, another lefty who went down with shoulder problems last year, is coming off some minor shoulder surgery in September and is hopeful he’ll be ready to go sometime in spring. James Shields and Jae Seo, a pair of right-handers, are the leading candidates for two slots in the rotation at this time. And it’s a wide open race, as it is for numerous teams, for the fifth slot entering Spring Training with JP Howell, Brian Stokes, Tim Corcoran and Jason Hammel in the hunt.
The all-important bullpen currently lists Seth McClung as closer. He’s big, throws in the mid-to-upper 90s and has a calm demeanor on the mound, just what you want in a closer. But what you don’t want is that lifetime 6.27 ERA in 251 innings with a 1.64 WHIP.
Dan Miceli, Shawn Camp and Ruddy Lugo are the top candidates for setup work right now. Tampa’s last Japanese import, Shinji Mori, is another possibility if he shows anything off labrum surgery that derailed him in 2006. And one more name to watch for this spring is Edwin Jackson, the right-hander the Rays picked up from the Dodgers before the 2006 season. Jackson worked out this winter in the Venezuelan League and could be a wildcard for either a major relief role or a spot in the rotation.
Key Player(s): It sounds like a copout, but whoever is on the mound is the key player for the Devil Rays in 2007. Tampa is going to have to listen to deals for either Baldelli or Upton if they want to really bring in an impact arm or two and make the leap from being perennial cellar dwellers in the AL East, even if that leap is just from fifth to fourth.
Futures: Pinnacle has the Rays at 50/1 to win the AL East, Bodog has them at 70/1 for the ALE and 200/1 to win it all, and VIP has 50/1 for the division and 100/1 to win the World Series. If everything goes right, they can reach 65 wins. If they do make a deal for a top-flight pitcher, they might even reach 68-70.
I've never really been a fan of assigning wins (and losses) for pitchers, but that's still one of the most amazing stats to occur in my lifetime.
