My heart tells me to bet the O's today because of the plus money, but I really don't see them winning this one with Kuroda on the mound. Kuroda is the the Yanks' best pitcher not named CC. The O's could continue to surprise this season, but this is not the game. IMO, under 8.5 runs looks very enticing.
As far as the other games go, I'm pounding over 7.5 in the Cards/Nats game. Carpenter has struggled since his return from surgery, and there's way too much pressure on him this game. He'll give up some runs to a strong Nats lineup. Also Edwin Jackson has been the most up & down pitcher in Washington's rotation. This game goes over 7.5.
I'm also going to take Oakland tonight. AJ Griffin and Scherzer have both pitched very well this season for their respected clubs. Scherzer has been dealing with some nagging injuries though. The last time he pitched against the A's, he had to leave after 2 innings. I'm on the A's big.
Summary:
Pick 1: Strong lean on the Nats/Cards over 7.5
Pick 2: Strong lean on the A's
Pick 3: Yanks/O's under 8.5
I've done very well this post season and went 2-0 with my picks yesterday, so I'm going to track my picks throughout the rest of the playoffs. Hopefully, I can make some paper.
Went 3 for 3 yesterday. I'm 5-0 on the playoff season, but we'll set my playoff record at 3-0 since I only posted the last 3. I only have lines up for the NL games right now.
I like the Reds today. I think the Reds' offense comes to life today. These 2 pitchers faced off in game 1. Latos only pitched 4 innings and got a No Decision, but the Reds still won 5-2. I expect a similar result. I also have a lean on over 7, but I'm not sure if I will make this play yet.
The Nationals get it done at home facing elimination.
Verlander 3-0 with 0.90 ERA against Oakland this season. Tigers -133 is a must play. Verlander will shine tonight and as long as Detroit puts up 3 or 4 runs, Tigers should take game 5.
I've learned the hard way this year never to bet against Gio Gonzalez. This kid is hard to hit. Nats have taken 9 of the last 11 against the Cards in DC. Wainwright has pitched in more playoff games obviously, but Gio already got his first game out of the way. I expect him to pitch lights out in this one and give up a max of 2 runs. Taking Washington -130
Not going to touch the Yankees-Orioles game. If anything, I'd lean taking the Orioles moneyline because there is plenty of value if you can get them at +200, but then again, I can't bring myself to bet against CC at home game 5. So I'm laying off.
This is do or die time for the Yankees. Phil Hughes has pitched horrible at times in the postseason. He has a ton of pressure on him to pitch well, and I think he'll do that, giving up a max of 3 runs. Verlander is arguably the best pitcher in the league. He won't give up many runs either. I like the Yankees to win or else lose by 1 in a low scoring affair like 2-1 or 3-2. I'll be putting 10 units on the under and 5 units on the run line.
It took a solo shot in the 9th last night, but the Yanks did it and the run line cashed. Tonight, I will be taking the Yankees ML at -105. CC Sabathia has always been a great postseason pitcher. Even this year, when the Yankees have struggled so much as a team, he has pitched lights out. He always pitches late into games and rarely gives up more than a couple earned runs. I'll take the Yankees with CC at these odds any day of the week no matter who he's pitching against. No way the Yanks get swept for the first time in over 30 years right?
I'm sticking with the Yankees although I have a spend a little extra change as they are now listed at -117.
I like the Giants in the early game. Tim Lincecum has earned a spot in the starting rotation through his solid work coming out the bullpen. He's allowed 1 run and 3 hits in 8 1/3 innings. Yes Lincecum has had a miserable season, but he's always been a good postseason pitcher. Wainwright has had a down year as well. I think the Giants take this one, and I'll be making a small parlay on Yankees and Giants today.
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