MLB - Tuesday, 4/30/19

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Plays Tuesday

Astros / Twins UNDER 8 -103 (5 Dimes)
Rays / Royals UNDER 7.5 +100 (Heritage)


YTD: 60-61-3, +0.80

[dawg58kahn]

Why does your model only have plays on unders?

[LT Profits]

Why does your model only have plays on unders?

Not "only" Unders, more like 90%.

[eaglesfan371]

It’s not May yet, stop with the unders! I’m trying to save you from this disease LT, unders are cancer in April!

Serious question though LT, when totals jumped from like 200 to 225 average in NBA over the past couple years, how badly did the increase in points kill your under plays? Did you post losing records last several NBA season in totals?

[LT Profits]

It’s not May yet, stop with the unders! I’m trying to save you from this disease LT, unders are cancer in April!

Not true at all, have you not heard the old early-season adage, "The pitchers are ahead of the hitters"?

Anyway, this April has been just about 50/50, let me look up exact numbers.

[eaglesfan371]

Not true at all, have you not heard the old early-season adage, "The pitchers are ahead of the hitters"?

Anyway, this April has been just about 50/50, let me look up exact numbers.

I also added a question about nba results. I’m surprised if that is true. Pitchers get worse, for example look at Sale, new batters/rookies that scouts have not determined weak spots to pitch to, batters healthy and not worn out from several months = more runs I would think.

[LT Profits]

Not true at all, have you not heard the old early-season adage, "The pitchers are ahead of the hitters"?

Anyway, this April has been just about 50/50, let me look up exact numbers.

Entering today, Overs are 208-201-14 this season

[LT Profits]

Since 2005 in March/April. Overs are 2715-2617-262, 50.9%, so nothing to see really.

[LT Profits]

And besides, like I posted in yesterday's thread, it is not as if I am getting "killed" as you put in in MLB totals, I enter today at -2.40

[krk1030]

Where do.you havw the reds?

[LT Profits]

Where do.you havw the reds?

Actually METS 53% (-113)

[Big Bear]

Not "only" Unders, more like 90%.

But havent the games been high scoring?

seems like every pitcher is garbage this year

[Big Bear]

League ERA is 4.93

that is the highest it’s ever been at the end of April

[funnyb25]

Also, the most amount of homeruns through the first 2 months by a mile.

Very poor pitching and steroids being less caught on to provides more homeruns, action, fans, which equals $$$$$

[LT Profits]

But havent the games been high scoring?

seems like every pitcher is garbage this year

League ERA is 4.93

that is the highest it’s ever been at the end of April

Also, the most amount of homeruns through the first 2 months by a mile.

Very poor pitching and steroids being less caught on to provides more homeruns, action, fans, which equals $$$$$

All baked into the totals, see Post #7.

[eaglesfan371]

All baked into the totals, see Post #7.

Serious question though LT, when totals jumped from like 200 to 225 average in NBA over the past couple years, how badly did the increase in points kill your under plays? I can't imagine the totals market just estimated right away this significant increase in scoring. Did you post losing records in recent NBA seasons for totals?

[LT Profits]

Serious question though LT, when totals jumped from like 200 to 225 average in NBA over the past couple years, how badly did the increase in points kill your under plays? I can't imagine the totals market just estimated right away this significant increase in scoring. Did you post losing records in recent NBA seasons for totals?

I have a very good NBA Totals record this year, I was playing mostly OVERS early in the season before going back to mostly Unders after the books finally adjusted, so the model was ahead of the curve there. NBA Totals are 56-37 STD.

[LT Profits]

I just checked, my first 13 NBA Total plays this season were all Overs and they went 12-1!

[funnyb25]

[tripled83]

Actually METS 53% (-113)

With Vargas vs Castillo? Where do you have Vargas rated? He’s been pitching like he wants to be sent to the minors.

[LT Profits]

With Vargas vs Castillo? Where do you have Vargas rated? He’s been pitching like he wants to be sent to the minors.

Yes, Castillo rated about 15% better, but Mets have enough cumulative edges elsewhere to be favored at home, especially bullpen.

[eaglesfan371]

I have a very good NBA Totals record this year, I was playing mostly OVERS early in the season before going back to mostly Unders after the books finally adjusted, so the model was ahead of the curve there. NBA Totals are 56-37 STD.

Wow very impressive.

[spippen]

I have a very good NBA Totals record this year, I was playing mostly OVERS early in the season before going back to mostly Unders after the books finally adjusted, so the model was ahead of the curve there. NBA Totals are 56-37 STD.

Superb transparent record.

[spippen]

Yes, Castillo rated about 15% better, but Mets have enough cumulative edges elsewhere to be favored at home, especially bullpen.

I don't think you'll ever see Vargas, or any pitcher, ever look as bad as he looked against Atlanta Braves 3 weeks ago. But yes Vargas stinks!

[LT Profits]

Just one play across all sports tonight with Royals game rained out, Passing in both NBA and NHL Playoffs.

[dirtycash66]

im glad i only took the first 5 under in that houston game