New to betting, SDQL question

[gojetsgomoxies]

finally a winning day

i have seen reference to zach greinke and chris sale having lost alot of velocity.... greinke was mentioned by a poster here and he's won since.. Sale is si.com citing a bunch of terrible advanced stats

https://www.si.com/mlb/2019/04/05/red-sox-cubs-astros-angels-mike-trout-mookie-betts

[njb5572]

Consider taking the RL for all plays where the opponent has a win percentage over 60%

https://killersports.com/mlb/query?su=1&invested=1&sdql=season+%3E2015+and+line+%3C-175+and+o%3AWP+%3E+60&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

..and despite conventional wisdom telling you to wait until teams get more games under their belt, don't. April has been the most profitable month since 2010.

https://killersports.com/mlb/query?su=1&invested=1&sdql=season+%3E2010+and+line+%3C-175+and+o%3AWP+%3E+60+and+month&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

[gojetsgomoxies]

ok, this has been perfect for 3 days in a row (ending sunday)..... still in pretty big hole for 2019 but coming around.

tailing yanks, red sox and astros has been bad. yanks especially.

and with this model you are fading all the terrible teams from last year and they've all been good this year, betting-wise at least.

i still like this, but i might slice and dice based on starting pitchers. red sox have had such bad pitching so far.

[Newbie1]

finally a winning day

i have seen reference to zach greinke and chris sale having lost alot of velocity.... greinke was mentioned by a poster here and he's won since.. Sale is si.com citing a bunch of terrible advanced stats

https://www.si.com/mlb/2019/04/05/re...t-mookie-betts

This strategy has indeed been very poor so far this season. Good pitchers and teams have been poor so far. Sale is about to take a loss vs the Blue Jays. Just looking at the standings I could have guessed the strategy would have had poor results. I wonder if things are going to turn around.

[gojetsgomoxies]

This strategy has indeed been very poor so far this season. Good pitchers and teams have been poor so far. Sale is about to take a loss vs the Blue Jays. Just looking at the standings I could have guessed the strategy would have had poor results. I wonder if things are going to turn around.

i wouldn't have touched Sale yesterday................ i think this will come back. but i wouldn't mind adding some sort of quality of recent starting pitcher filter........ i realize this worked brilliantly the last 3 years or last 5 years simply based on -170 filter.

[2daBank]

Consider taking the RL for all plays where the opponent has a win percentage over 60%

https://killersports.com/mlb/query?su=1&invested=1&sdql=season+%3E2015+and+line+%3C-175+and+o%3AWP+%3E+60&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

..and despite conventional wisdom telling you to wait until teams get more games under their belt, don't. April has been the most profitable month since 2010.

https://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

Hey bro. That my avatar!! Cardinals appreciate your support but banker owns rights to that avatar on sbr!! Lol

[2daBank]

2DaBank,

backing significant favorites has been a big winner the last few years. the whole point of this thread. certainly there are so many games that an underdog selective strategy can be a winner. and moderate favorites weren't a winner the last few years.

i think baltimore could field a team made up of career minor leaguers and not do much worse than last year. they were the worst team in the majors by far in one run games. their winning % fell well short of their on-field stats........ very very obvious they'd bounce this season. but more of a 7-8 game bounce for whole season. not taking series from yanks in NYC

mancini and dwight smith are good players. and playing like it..... some young pitching talent........... if there's one pet peeve i have with preview magazines is they seem to just describe the past. i want to know what can be different from past. and i think these magazines are way too aggressive about giving up on very high draft picks.

There obviously many ways to skin a cat and I’m certainly not here to suggest my way any better than others. For me personally there just no way I could succeed laying big (if any) juice in this sport.

Not suggesting you can’t find value with favorites, many times I find small favs that I believe have a better chance of winning than odds suggest which is obviously the goal for us all! fav or dog the idea is to get down on prices that don’t reflect the true chances of a team winning a game. I feel that less likely on sizable favs as those prices typically come on teams perceived to be far superior thus often carry a premium as money comes in on them.

[Newbie1]

For me personally there just no way I could succeed laying big (if any) juice in this sport.

Its been highly profitable the last several seasons, over 220 units the past 3 seasons alone, iirc 109 units last year. Sample size of almost 1800 games in the past 3 seasons.

[gojetsgomoxies]

small loser last night.... a bunch of lesser favorites hit but 2 big favourites missed.

i did some analysis and this has been a winner this season for -170 to -200. of course, again, anything system is a winner if you remove some of its losing bets.

i would not play darvish tonight.........

not really a defense of this system, but i don't think anyone could have foreseen red sox being so horrible this year....... most of the other teams seem to be falling into expected play. i thought the yanks were doing horribly but their record surprised me positively. i'll have to re-check that.

[gojetsgomoxies]

winner last night......... looks like we are $800 in the hole and winning nights are $200 to $300...... so not that far into hole anymore.

ex red sox/yanks, it's a decent winner.... disclaimer: any system is winner if you take out worst results.

i did some analysis on very early games in past seasons and they weren't good either. nowhere near as bad as this season. my sense is the system is better once it's established who's good/bad. and a team like the orioles can open hot and then sink into the abyss (which they seem to be doing).. i will post the analysis

only game today looks like boston vs toronto. at least that's what sdql provided.

[gojetsgomoxies]

just an update,

still a big losing strategy so far.

45 games.... 26-19 win record... average line -210........ ROI - 15.6% (+24.1% fading it. i haven't thought through that math... just putting forth what i came up with on spdl)

of the 45 games........... 12 are the yanks (-30%ish ROI), 7 are boston (-35%ish).............. 13 times it was fading the orioles (-17% ROI fading them in this system)

started out terribly, came around and was doing fairly well. now doing fairly badly. the big negatives were very early on

[gojetsgomoxies]

i'm thinking about this strategy....

it was predicated on backing dominant teams and probably fading sad-sack teams. but i'm wondering how many dominant teams there are this season. houston? at the same time, the sad-sack teams seem to be miami and maybe baltimore. toronto? colorado record is sad-sack but i think it's virtually assured that they'll improve alot.

i will go through the same thought process as to pitchers and hitting teams.

[Newbie1]

Thats exactly why it seemed to have worked the past few seasons. Dominant teams arent playing so well. Maybe I will just stick to the "beat the sweep" system.

[gojetsgomoxies]

this is starting to work very well again.... seems like the teams are properly sorted now.

power ratings last 5 games:

1-6: cubs, boston, arizona (don't know much about them), minnesota (excellent young players), san diego (surprisingly good pitching and bats heating up), kc (good young hitters)

bottom 6: cws (i like them), toronto (fade), miami (terrible), detroit (no offense), LAA (trout and simmons should be enough to do better than this), cleveland (surprises me, no hitting)..... fyi, list is from worst to lesser bad.

1Chi Cubs (5-0)5.1513022Boston (4-1)4.7813013Houston (3-2)3.8912744Arizona (4-1)2.5613055Minnesota (3-2)2.43425126San Diego (2-3)1.9143087Kansas City (2-3)1.8533038Atlanta (4-1)1.29229119Colorado (3-2)1.281301010LA Dodgers (3-2)1.21126711Philadelphia (3-2)1.151301512Cincinnati (2-3)0.90126913Oakland (1-4)0.621301614Texas (2-3)0.53130615NY Yankees (2-3)-0.193291416NY Mets (1-4)-0.303291717Seattle (1-4)-0.341303018Washington (2-3)-1.041291819St. Louis (1-4)-1.041191320Tampa Bay (2-3)-1.101302121Pittsburgh (4-1)-1.406302522Milwaukee (3-2)-1.551252323SF Giants (3-2)-1.593272224Baltimore (2-3)-1.6510302425Cleveland (3-2)-2.195291926LA Angels (3-2)-2.192292027Detroit (3-2)-2.346292828Miami (1-4)-2.989302729Toronto (1-4)-3.541292630Chi Sox (2-3)-4.7383029

[gojetsgomoxies]

Thats exactly why it seemed to have worked the past few seasons. Dominant teams arent playing so well. Maybe I will just stick to the "beat the sweep" system.

7 teams are 2/3 of the games since (inclusive) 2016..... LAD, Clev, CC, Hou, Wash, Bos, NYY... more analysis to follow

[gojetsgomoxies]

since 4/23 (data mined date), 19-7 SU, -206 ML, 11% ROI

big positive contributors: red sox, lad, twins, houston, cleveland... poor tails: tampa bay

best faded teams: baltimore, miami, detroit, pittsburgh... worst fades: kc

[gojetsgomoxies]

and of course, it lost pretty substantially last night

[Newbie1]

I have noticed that the actual betting lines on places like bet365 seem to be worse than whats presented in SDQL.

[gojetsgomoxies]

I have noticed that the actual betting lines on places like bet365 seem to be worse than whats presented in SDQL.

i have no idea... that would be a pretty big problem...... i'll check going forward. i'll compare SDQL to pinnacle close.

[gojetsgomoxies]

I have noticed that the actual betting lines on places like bet365 seem to be worse than whats presented in SDQL.

Newbie, tonight's 2 plays (houston and bosox) have moved like crazy. what killersports is quoting right now is worse than open but much better than current (one is close, the other is still to be played). EDIT: i think i have this backwards. SDQL is better than open, worse than current/close. BIG MOVES

here's a question: do these heavy favorite moneylines often move in that direction? that's like free money... i noticed CFB big spreads seem to almost always widen.

[gojetsgomoxies]

cubs not a play based on close. but big move the other way on that one (towards cubs not being as huge faves)

[gojetsgomoxies]

all 4 games yesterday moved like crazy towards bigger faves.... not sure all were playable at open or close. but they were all playable on one or both.

[Newbie1]

So what your saying is most of the time the line is going to move even more towards a big favorite and to be able to get as close to the SDQL lines (which is necessary to be profitable) one must get in as early as possible?

[gojetsgomoxies]

So what your saying is most of the time the line is going to move even more towards a big favorite and to be able to get as close to the SDQL lines (which is necessary to be profitable) one must get in as early as possible?

based on cursory analysis, yes (on the line moves). not really sure about SDQL's lines though. need to look more into that. see next comment (which is mostly repetitive)

i'm not sure what SDQL's lines are. i would have assumed the close, but they might be some sort of average of open and close........

[gojetsgomoxies]

i checked a bunch of prices and they don't seem that "out of whack". the lines seem somewhere between open and close (maybe 65 open and 35 close if i had to put weights)........ bear in mind that closing prices are all over the map.... i did see that the database had a very bad number on chris sale tonight. you could do better with open or close vs the -300 that the database shows. so sometimes market prices are better.... but cliff notes, i'd say the average number is near open/close average.

[gojetsgomoxies]

6-0 last night

[gojetsgomoxies]

another big winning night...

i do notice that almost all betting lines seem to move in the direction of the heavy favorite. moderate favorites too although they aren't part of the thread's betting strategy

surprised there aren't more blogs/studies showing line moves being predictable (at least at certain times in some sports)

[gojetsgomoxies]

for tracking purposes, this is what killersports.com shows for tonight's game......... curious if the line will change in their database (i.e. change to the closing line)

May 10, 2019

box

Fri

home

Astros

Justin Verlander - R

Rangers

Lance Lynn - R

-250

8.5

May 10, 2019

box

Fri

home

Dodgers

Kenta Maeda - R

Nationals

Anibal Sanchez - R

-190

8.0

May 10, 2019

box

Fri

home

Mets

Zack Wheeler - R

Marlins

Pablo Lopez - R

-175

7.0

May 10, 2019

box

Fri

away

Angels

Trevor Cahill - R

Orioles

Dan Straily - R

-175

11.0

May 10, 2019

box

Fri

home

Red Sox

Eduardo Rodriguez - L

Mariners

Erik Swanson - R

-190

10.0

May 10, 2019

box

Fri

home

Twins

Jake Odorizzi - R

Tigers

Tyson Ross - R

-230

9.0

Showing 1 to 6 of 6 entries

May 10, 2019

box

Fri

home

Astros

Justin Verlander - R

Rangers

Lance Lynn - R

-250

8.5

May 10, 2019

box

Fri

home

Dodgers

Kenta Maeda - R

Nationals

Anibal Sanchez - R

-190

8.0

May 10, 2019

box

Fri

home

Mets

Zack Wheeler - R

Marlins

Pablo Lopez - R

-175

7.0

May 10, 2019

box

Fri

away

Angels

Trevor Cahill - R

Orioles

Dan Straily - R

-175

11.0

May 10, 2019

box

Fri

home

Red Sox

Eduardo Rodriguez - L

Mariners

Erik Swanson - R

-190

10.0

May 10, 2019

box

Fri

home

Twins

Jake Odorizzi - R

Tigers

Tyson Ross - R

-230

9.0

Showing 1 to 6 of 6 entries

[gojetsgomoxies]

sorry for double post... and i notice that lines falls off page

very surprising that for all the sophistication and number of data items SDQL has, it doesn't have open, mid, close for spreads/lines.

[gojetsgomoxies]

here are just the quoted lines for tongiht:

hou -250
lad -190
nym -175
laa -175
red sox -190
twins -230

[gojetsgomoxies]

i checked last night's lines... system went 6-0 so the winnings will be the same no matter what the line. the net profit will differ.

for the six games (hou, lad, nym, laa, bos, min), killersports lines invested 1270, the open invested 1040 and the close invested 1233 NOTE: the opening line probably had one bad data item (starting pitcher change). so that would get open invested above 1100.
so basically, killersports and the pinnacle close were very similar. i did notice william hill lines were generally wider.

seems like almost every game with moderate to strong favorite moves towards the favorite. is this new?

when are baseball lines released?

[gojetsgomoxies]

today's plays are:

houston -300
st louis -180
NYM -300
bosox -180
twins -190

note that these odds may change for calculations of winnings.. these are just indicative right now (unless game has started)

[gojetsgomoxies]

perfect again yesterday.. 4-0. not sure why st louis wasn't a play. i will check.

opener again was investing much less money.... pinnacle close and killer sports odds were close

[gojetsgomoxies]

i think st louis should have been a loss. pitching change?.... or do they grab the qualifying games based on the opening odds and then use the closing odds to grade? although that doesn't make sense as st louis on the screen earlier in the day

[gojetsgomoxies]

killersports had cards going off at -160, which wouldn't qualify but also doesn't seem right. will watch further