Baseball made easy w/SDQL ~ May

[mrpickem]

I love numbers and maintain sheets for each sport I play, as well as using many online resource. But this year I've made and effort to really try and learn python or SDQL starting with Hoops...I did real well Jan thru end on tourney. Baseball started a bit rocky but lately I've been having success. Nothing for sure, but I will say when running these queries I've found they are not much use with at least 100 game sample, smaller samples can be used as supporting data, but not primary. You have to be very care not to backfit data to support a particular play. Need actual reasoning behind query, not just random ifs.

AD and line > 160 and season >= 2014 and p:HL
Away dog over 160 off home loss over 4+ years yields decent 16% ROI on fade, but it wins 80% of the time.
Play: CUBS -229 $100/43.07 https://goo.gl/aiK2YS

HF and season > 2011 and 4 < month < 9 and line < -171 and STDSWHIP < .95
Huge home fav of 170 or more with strong starter under 1 whip omitting April & Sept over 6 years+ yields over 18% ROI on under. Note Verlander ridiculous WHIP of 0.53 so ROI gets much bigger if you lower WHIP parameter but it moves the sample size to small
Play: TEX/HOU U8 -105 $100/$95.20 https://goo.gl/VQauqy

Also let me say, I always risk 1 unit because I will play large favorites at times and I don't want, say 2.5u exposure. My unit value varies daily based on 1.5% of my current bankroll, but I will use straight $100 unit here for illustration. Once in a blue moon I may risk 1.5 or 2 units, but only a max 2% of the time.

[mrpickem]

...adding

PHI -1½ +163 $100/$163
PHI -135 $100/$74.10

Phils just hit lefties well at home period. Matz has been a great Friday starter(7-1) but Jake is fine too and I'll take Philly 22.8% ROI and 10% ROI on RL

team=Phillies and o:STL and season > 2012 and H

Also notice the numbers are even better is I only go back 4 years, but not reaching the 100 game sample threshold team = Phillies and o:STL and season > 2013 and H

50-35 (0.35, 58.8%)	avg line: 116.2 / -128.0	on / against: +$2,554 / -$3,098	ROI: +27.4% / -26.9%
51-34 (0.97, 60.0%)	avg line: -101.5 / -113.3	on / against: +$1,869 / -$2,321	ROI: +17.7% / -21.0%
32-43-10 (0.02, 42.7%)	avg total: 8.1	over / under: -$1,475 / +$845	ROI: -15.8% / +9.0%

[mrpickem]

• 973 Seattle Mariners -150
• 973 Seattle Mariners -1½ +105

HD and season > 2011 and SG > 1 and WP < 42 and o:WP > 58 and 4 < month < 9 and s:L

https://goo.gl/Xi6Xn7

[mrpickem]

• 960 Arizona Diamondbacks +188
• 960 Arizona Diamondbacks +1½ +105

[mrpickem]

[mrpickem]

fri 2-6...not perty

let's do better

• 903 New York Mets -1½ +110 https://goo.gl/k2i4ZX / https://goo.gl/Za8gEp
• 903 New York Mets -143 https://goo.gl/yguhYv
• 915 Oakland Athletics/New York Yankees Under 9 +105 https://goo.gl/VQauqy
• 918 Toronto Blue Jays +112 https://goo.gl/jBb1mn
• 919 Kansas City Royals +193 https://goo.gl/HXpmp1
• 925 Texas Rangers/Houston Astros Under 8½ -120 https://goo.gl/Xyyf1k

[mrpickem]

moar

• 905 San Francisco Giants +124
• 907 Atlanta Braves -138
• 922 Detroit Tigers +138 GM1
• 934 Detroit Tigers +104 GM2
• 928 Los Angeles Angels -128

All these off this query https://goo.gl/Us58B8 (Defense angle with 27% more double plays turned than league average = 61% and 19% ROI

All except Halos that is..they are identified here:

[mrpickem]

Here's one I stumbled on

Chubs 25-5 after Schwarber goes hitless at home with at least 3 AB, ROI even higher on RL...but fairly small sample

Kyle Schwarber:at bats >= 3 and Kyle Schwarber:hits = 0 and p:H

25-5 (2.30, 83.3%)	avg line: -171.5 / 156.0	on / against: +$1,906 / -$1,946	ROI: +36.5% / -62.6%
21-9 (1.10, 70.0%)	avg line: 113.3 / -128.7	on / against: +$1,497 / -$1,791	ROI: +46.0% / -44.8%
19-10-1 (2.15, 65.5%)	avg total: 8.3	over / under: +$818 / -$1,083	ROI: +24.9% / -32.7%

[mrpickem]

sat 4-5
better but not good

NYM 2.11 https://goo.gl/QprMvW
CUB 1.4 https://goo.gl/mHJE4A
SEA 1.543 https://goo.gl/szSdWU
HOU U9 2.01 https://goo.gl/1x49aY