Betting Using Lines w/Koreatine
Alright guys.
This will mark my first official betting thread here on SBR. It's good to be here and I will do my best to stay consistent with regular activity, but I want to make this very clear.
This is NOT for everyone. If you're lazy, this isn't for you. If you're open minded, want to make some money without having to cap for hours and love line moves like I do, than this might be for you.
The first system I'm going to introduce to the thread is a system that has gained a lot of interest from others since I introduced it about a month and a half ago in the beginning of July. It has to do with mainly RLM on teams nobody wants to bet. We aren't just taking any non-public team, however.
I've always been a "value" guy. I started gambling playing poker and as many of you also have, it was a matter of time until I gravitated towards sports betting. We always talk about odds and that over time if you put your money in with the best odds, you will make money in the long run.
When it comes to sports betting, 99% of the bettors, see a game, and bet it based on whether or not they like the odds or spread. What they don't know is in what ball park that line should actually be at. It's not that the books win some crazy % of the games. It's that a good % of the time, they get better value than they should when they win, and lose less value than they should when they lose.
If you're a data guy, crunch a bunch of numbers factor in some of the variables like travel, etc, you'll probably be in the same ball park as a good portion of the opening lines. However, some of the lines will be extremely off compared to the numbers you're getting. Sure you're numbers "could" be off, but more than likely those games are "heavily manipulated" lines. That folks, is what this first system revolves around.
The first step in generating a system play, is to generate what I call "notable lines." This is done by a couple simple calculations which will generate the lines you basically have to pay attention to throughout the day and games that end up being plays can ONLY come from "notable lines."
I use the win probability off the 538 website to generate my hypothetical line. I've been asked many times, why use 538. Well it's simple. I deem it to be accurate, some may say otherwise, and that's ok, we can agree to disagree on that. Plus it's easily accessible and they already do all the number crunching for you. It's just a rough estimate to generate a hypothetical line.
What we're doing is taking a win probability and converting that into a line. A 50% win probability would be +100. A 46% win probability would be +117.
There's an odds calculator for you to use. Both real lines will never be exactly the same as the hypothetical ones, because there's a small % difference where the books basically add juice into the line.
Once we generate our expected line, we gather the opening line. I use Pinnacle. I have sworn by the accuracy of their lines as a market setting sportsbook for years now. Some of you may use a different sportsbook, but make sure it's sharp, because the other half of this system revolves around line moves and sharps shape the lines.
So for example. Today the Angels have a 38% chance to win and should open somewhere around +163. They actually opened at +125. What we do now is generate our opening ROI. We do this by taking the opening line value, which is +125 and multiplying it by the odds, which is 38, which gives us 4750. This is our winnings. We then subtract 6,200, which is what you lose the 62 times the Angels lose, and that gives you -1450. You then divide by your risk, which is 100 and you get -14.5. That is your opening line ROI.
For a play to be considered a "notable line". The ROI MUST be -7% or worse. (-10% is considered worse, not better)
We only are looking at teams below a 50% win probability according to 538.
So now that we've established how to generate our "notable lines", the rest is just getting in your day trading mood and watching lines. For a game to be considered a play, it needs to close worse than it opens. We NEED RLM, because even though we spotted the manipulated games, since we didn't cap the games, we're using line moves as verification as to being on the probable side. If the Angels opened up at +125, they need to close at around +123 or worse. I usually have a 10-12 dollar "early lock in zone" where if a line drops by 10-12 dollars I'll lock it in then. Really all we don't want is to bet a game too early and have a huge move or moves the other way and knock the game out of being a play. We also want to get as much value as we possibly can since we're already losing value to begin with. Usually with decent amount of the games that end up being plays, you'll see an early sharp move of 5-10 dollars and then it will stay put for a while or steadily keep falling throughout the day. Some games you might not see much action at all, and all day it will bounce back and forth over the line you need it to close at. This happens about 18% of the time and it's one of those games where it's best to wait as long as possible before locking in. I assure you, some of you will get frustrated with trying to gauge the line moves, but it gets easier over time.
Basically what this system is doing is paying for information. Line moves are the information, and we're paying by sacrificing value. We don't bet any game that closes above +140 or -150. In the month of July, the average bet was -101. Since this system's a pretty even money system, never laying outrageous value, I rely on a good win %.
I'm sure there are details that I've missed but this will at least introduce most of it and I'll be happy to answer any questions any of you have. Some of you will think I'm crazy, and that's ok. As stated earlier, some of this goes completely against the values you may have in regards to sports betting, but to each his own. The end goals to win money at least for me, I don't want to spend hours capping games anymore.
You don't need to know anything about baseball to do this. Math and some line watching is all that needs to be done. Surely, how can this possibly work? If you understand the fundamentals of how lines are generated and think like the books, it's really not that unfathomable to think that this CAN'T make money.
This will mark my first official betting thread here on SBR. It's good to be here and I will do my best to stay consistent with regular activity, but I want to make this very clear.
This is NOT for everyone. If you're lazy, this isn't for you. If you're open minded, want to make some money without having to cap for hours and love line moves like I do, than this might be for you.
The first system I'm going to introduce to the thread is a system that has gained a lot of interest from others since I introduced it about a month and a half ago in the beginning of July. It has to do with mainly RLM on teams nobody wants to bet. We aren't just taking any non-public team, however.
I've always been a "value" guy. I started gambling playing poker and as many of you also have, it was a matter of time until I gravitated towards sports betting. We always talk about odds and that over time if you put your money in with the best odds, you will make money in the long run.
When it comes to sports betting, 99% of the bettors, see a game, and bet it based on whether or not they like the odds or spread. What they don't know is in what ball park that line should actually be at. It's not that the books win some crazy % of the games. It's that a good % of the time, they get better value than they should when they win, and lose less value than they should when they lose.
If you're a data guy, crunch a bunch of numbers factor in some of the variables like travel, etc, you'll probably be in the same ball park as a good portion of the opening lines. However, some of the lines will be extremely off compared to the numbers you're getting. Sure you're numbers "could" be off, but more than likely those games are "heavily manipulated" lines. That folks, is what this first system revolves around.
The first step in generating a system play, is to generate what I call "notable lines." This is done by a couple simple calculations which will generate the lines you basically have to pay attention to throughout the day and games that end up being plays can ONLY come from "notable lines."
I use the win probability off the 538 website to generate my hypothetical line. I've been asked many times, why use 538. Well it's simple. I deem it to be accurate, some may say otherwise, and that's ok, we can agree to disagree on that. Plus it's easily accessible and they already do all the number crunching for you. It's just a rough estimate to generate a hypothetical line.
What we're doing is taking a win probability and converting that into a line. A 50% win probability would be +100. A 46% win probability would be +117.
There's an odds calculator for you to use. Both real lines will never be exactly the same as the hypothetical ones, because there's a small % difference where the books basically add juice into the line.
Once we generate our expected line, we gather the opening line. I use Pinnacle. I have sworn by the accuracy of their lines as a market setting sportsbook for years now. Some of you may use a different sportsbook, but make sure it's sharp, because the other half of this system revolves around line moves and sharps shape the lines.
So for example. Today the Angels have a 38% chance to win and should open somewhere around +163. They actually opened at +125. What we do now is generate our opening ROI. We do this by taking the opening line value, which is +125 and multiplying it by the odds, which is 38, which gives us 4750. This is our winnings. We then subtract 6,200, which is what you lose the 62 times the Angels lose, and that gives you -1450. You then divide by your risk, which is 100 and you get -14.5. That is your opening line ROI.
For a play to be considered a "notable line". The ROI MUST be -7% or worse. (-10% is considered worse, not better)
We only are looking at teams below a 50% win probability according to 538.
So now that we've established how to generate our "notable lines", the rest is just getting in your day trading mood and watching lines. For a game to be considered a play, it needs to close worse than it opens. We NEED RLM, because even though we spotted the manipulated games, since we didn't cap the games, we're using line moves as verification as to being on the probable side. If the Angels opened up at +125, they need to close at around +123 or worse. I usually have a 10-12 dollar "early lock in zone" where if a line drops by 10-12 dollars I'll lock it in then. Really all we don't want is to bet a game too early and have a huge move or moves the other way and knock the game out of being a play. We also want to get as much value as we possibly can since we're already losing value to begin with. Usually with decent amount of the games that end up being plays, you'll see an early sharp move of 5-10 dollars and then it will stay put for a while or steadily keep falling throughout the day. Some games you might not see much action at all, and all day it will bounce back and forth over the line you need it to close at. This happens about 18% of the time and it's one of those games where it's best to wait as long as possible before locking in. I assure you, some of you will get frustrated with trying to gauge the line moves, but it gets easier over time.
Basically what this system is doing is paying for information. Line moves are the information, and we're paying by sacrificing value. We don't bet any game that closes above +140 or -150. In the month of July, the average bet was -101. Since this system's a pretty even money system, never laying outrageous value, I rely on a good win %.
I'm sure there are details that I've missed but this will at least introduce most of it and I'll be happy to answer any questions any of you have. Some of you will think I'm crazy, and that's ok. As stated earlier, some of this goes completely against the values you may have in regards to sports betting, but to each his own. The end goals to win money at least for me, I don't want to spend hours capping games anymore.
You don't need to know anything about baseball to do this. Math and some line watching is all that needs to be done. Surely, how can this possibly work? If you understand the fundamentals of how lines are generated and think like the books, it's really not that unfathomable to think that this CAN'T make money.
