8/02/17
99-114-7, RoR –7.07% (vs 11/10 odds 48.7%)
Indians -157, F5, Gray / Kluber
BOL
BTW: I may (unintentionally) have lied. Saturday really got to me and I swore off bullpens, but that does not negate certain other facts. Jumping the line early is one advantage given up as the books always open 5 inning lines AFTER they see the overnight effects on the opening line the next morning. Before 5 inning lines opened this morning, I had the opportunity to take Kluber FG for -131, after one or more bettors with deep pockets hammered the Yankees. OK, they can do what they want to do, and some folks think you are crazy if you do not follow them, but obviously I am not the only one that disagrees or the line would not be back up. The opportunity to take them at a lower number is gone, but I may go back to FG play as those advantages should not be missed.
As far as this game goes, I will stick with the F5, because the greater difference in probability is in the First 5 Innings. Sonny Gray is an above average pitcher, but the concept that he plays Messiah for the Yankees or exponentially affects their probability is ridiculous. Above average is fine, but Corey Kluber is in the “elite” class and he has a better offense behind him for this matchup.
Probably, but not necessarily, only play of the day. Stay tuned.
99-114-7, RoR –7.07% (vs 11/10 odds 48.7%)
Indians -157, F5, Gray / Kluber
BOL
BTW: I may (unintentionally) have lied. Saturday really got to me and I swore off bullpens, but that does not negate certain other facts. Jumping the line early is one advantage given up as the books always open 5 inning lines AFTER they see the overnight effects on the opening line the next morning. Before 5 inning lines opened this morning, I had the opportunity to take Kluber FG for -131, after one or more bettors with deep pockets hammered the Yankees. OK, they can do what they want to do, and some folks think you are crazy if you do not follow them, but obviously I am not the only one that disagrees or the line would not be back up. The opportunity to take them at a lower number is gone, but I may go back to FG play as those advantages should not be missed.
As far as this game goes, I will stick with the F5, because the greater difference in probability is in the First 5 Innings. Sonny Gray is an above average pitcher, but the concept that he plays Messiah for the Yankees or exponentially affects their probability is ridiculous. Above average is fine, but Corey Kluber is in the “elite” class and he has a better offense behind him for this matchup.
Probably, but not necessarily, only play of the day. Stay tuned.