Mlb 7/06/17

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7/06/17
76-88-5, RoR–6.3% (vs 11/10 odds 49.1%)

Astros, Full Game Run Line, -1.5, -103, McCullers / Liriano
Padres, Full Game +163, Lamet / Tomlin

BOL

Are they kidding me? Tomlin at -176? The break-even point is a 63.8% win probability. That is championship caliber odds and no team wins a championship relying on guys like Tomlin. Tomlin is the biggest double-digit loser in the game this year, 4-12 for quality starts and 5-11 head to head. This “won’t get swept at home” theory is a ridiculous basis on which to take that kind of risk.
May have another play or two later but I am waiting for 5 inning lines to open and settle a little.

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Red Sox-Rays, Under 3.5, -103, First 5 Innings, Sale / Faria

BOL
This one has shut out written all over it, either one or both. Sale brings you a 7.55:1 K/BB rate (12 per 9) and Faria almost matches it with a 7:1 (10 per 9). The raw mathematics suggest you could see 12 K’s the first 5 innings. The gb/fb rates qualify as well at 1.32 and 2.08 respectively. The Rays hitters have for the most part struggled with Sale and the BoSox hitters have never faced Faria. The only regret I have here is not knowing the HP umpire, but sometimes you can’t have everything.